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Sterling slumps on 'no-deal Brexit' worries; stocks dip


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Johnson's no-deal Brexit gamble hammers sterling

By Guy Faulconbridge, Olga Cotaga

 

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Britain's new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, delivers a speech outside Downing Street, in London, Britain July 24, 2019. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The British pound tumbled on Tuesday as investors bet Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit brinkmanship with the European Union could trigger a messy divorce that would sow chaos through the world economy and financial markets.

 

Sterling crashed through trading barriers, falling to an intraday low of $1.2120 in shallower overnight Asian trade, the lowest since March 2017. The pound has lost 3.6 cents since Johnson was named Britain’s new prime minister a week ago.

 

Ever since the 2016 EU referendum, the pound has gyrated to the rhetoric of the Brexit divorce: after the result was announced, it had the biggest one-day fall since the era of free-floating exchange rates was introduced in the early 1970s.

 

Since the 2016 vote, sterling has now lost 28 cents, one of the most significant falls for the currency in recent decades.

 

“We see more GBP weakness to come,” ING said in a note to clients. “The current sterling meltdown is in line with our view that GBP risks are heavily skewed to the downside given the Brexit uncertainty and rising odds of an early election (our base case).”

 

Johnson, who was hailed by U.S. President Donald Trump as Britain’s Trump, has promised to strike a new divorce deal with the European Union and to energise the world’s fifth-largest economy after what he casts as the gloom of Theresa May’s premiership.

 

On entering Downing Street on Wednesday, Johnson set up a showdown with the EU by vowing to negotiate a new deal and threatening that, if the bloc refused, he would take Britain out on Oct. 31 without a deal to limit economic dislocation.

 

TOUR OF THE UNION

 

He told reporters in Scotland on Monday that he wanted to get a new deal but that the government had to prepare for a no-deal Brexit.

 

When asked about his remark during the campaign for the party leadership that the odds on a no-deal Brexit were a million to one, he said: “Provided there is sufficient goodwill and common sense on the part of our partners, that is exactly where I would put the odds.”

 

Many investors say a no-deal Brexit would send shock waves through the world economy, tip Britain’s economy into a recession, roil financial markets and weaken London’s position as the pre-eminent international financial centre.

 

Supporters of Brexit say that while there would be some short-term difficulties, the disruption of a no-deal Brexit has been overplayed and that in the long-term, the United Kingdom would thrive if it left the European Union.

 

Johnson’s ascent has placed an avowed Brexiteer in charge of the British government for the first time since the 2016 EU Brexit referendum.

 

Johnson will tell Welsh farmers on Tuesday they will get a better deal after Brexit, part of a countrywide tour to win support for his “do or die” pledge to leave the European Union by Oct. 31.

 

“I will always back Britain’s great farmers and as we leave the EU we need to make sure that Brexit works for them,” Johnson said before arriving in Wales.

 

“Once we leave the EU on the 31st of October, we will have a historic opportunity to introduce new schemes to support farming – and we will make sure that farmers get a better deal. Brexit presents enormous opportunities for our country and it’s time we looked to the future with pride and optimism.”

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-07-30
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48 minutes ago, jimballard said:

but cannot take family because of UK immigration rules.

You can take your children, father with 2 kids gets you a minimum income of 20,000 UK pounds.

If one of your kids has a medical disability, I would have thought she would be better off in the UK.

 

Or you could economise and learn to live on less here.

If you already own your own home, 15-20kbht/month should be achievable.

 

 

Edited by BritManToo
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18 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

You can take your children, father with 2 kids gets you a minimum income of 20,000 UK pounds.

If one of your kids has a medical disability, I would have thought she would be better off in the UK

 

I would have to take my wife as well. How can we get minimum income of £20k? Do you have a link?

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2 minutes ago, jimballard said:

I would have to take my wife as well. How can we get minimum income of £20k? Do you have a link?

Nope, you can't take your wife.

But benefits, tax credit, and housing allowance easily guarantee a minimum of 20k if you're working 16hr/week (even if it's selling on Ebay as an independent trader). You should get more because of the kids disability.

 

If you move back as a single guy, you'll get nothing.

Edited by BritManToo
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1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

Nope, you can't take your wife.

But benefits, tax credit, and housing allowance easily guarantee a minimum of 20k if you're working 16hr/week (even if it's selling on Ebay as an independent trader). You should get more because of the kids disability.

Ok. I didnt know this.  I will have to discuss with the wife. Daughter is basically ok now after operations and therapy. She walks with a slight limp but can do all normal activities.

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In many companies they have Friday / Monday a management team meeting. Some have busines in GBP also. They see Monday the GBP sink as a stone in the water. So… as we have a export order open of.. £ 288K. Sank yesterday 1,46 % and today (14:15): 0,54%. Sh.t, 2% of our margin evaporated in 1 ½ day = £ 5760 , so.. SELL the £'s . But.. who is willing to buy in a downward market ? Better wait an ( ¼ - ½ - 1/1) hour and.. when still down, wait another hour etc etc.

Opposite, we British co bought in €uro's, value £ 353k... so… wait with forex covering €uro's to sell in £.  We gained in 1 ½ day: £ 6000 POUNDS

In €uro as well as in US$ -countries they just think opposite. 

Result: more sell, less demand for £ and that triggers... YES.. a further downfall.

For the entire UK... the import and the export is in BILLIONS, not in thousands… The £ was in Jan 2016 € 1,47. UK, calculate your losses…. and compare that with the EU contribution.

 

Prayer in EU changed:  "dear God, give us our daily bread and,., thanks for Boris c.s. and his no deal Brexit.."

Edited by puipuitom
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5 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

As always Johnson spouts his rubbish to the audience in front of him at the time.  Does anyone actually believe anything he says?

 

I don’t. 

When I feel the sun is shining and he tells it is daytime: Yes.

Edited by puipuitom
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5 hours ago, dunroaming said:

As always Johnson spouts his rubbish to the audience in front of him at the time.  Does anyone actually believe anything he says?

Born in NYC and was a US citizen, as I recall. 

 

NPR interview from 2014:  "Outrageous or not, will you pay this IRS tax bill?" Johnson's response: "I'm — no, is the answer. I think, it's absolutely outrageous. Why should I?" 

 

(Narrator:  He paid the bill.)

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/11/21/365690481/london-mayor-boris-johnson-owes-irs-money-wont-pay

 

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12 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

When I feel the sun is shining and he tells it is daytime: Yes.

The warmth you mistakenly think is from the sun is actually a heat lamp he’s had placed outside your window...

Edited by Bluespunk
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11 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

Your empathy and caring attitude is a lesson to us all. 

 

Truly you are a comfort to all humanity. 

 

Bravo sir. 

least he is going back for a job,you ever worked? or here full time?......Never mind eh!   Eire's time is virtually up Id say,truly the whipping boy of the Brexit solution

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1 minute ago, zorrow424 said:

least he is going back for a job,you ever worked? or here full time?......Never mind eh!   Eire's time is virtually up Id say,truly the whipping boy of the Brexit solution

Your economic illiteracy is laughable, as is your judgement of others. 

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6 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

How long are these two irresponsible parts going to be allowed to continue? One is messing up the pound, the other bloc is messing up the euro. Just make a deal and end your peoples suffering. Nothing good comes out of this.

 

 

Wisest post of the day...

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12 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

How long are these two irresponsible parts going to be allowed to continue? One is messing up the pound, the other bloc is messing up the euro. Just make a deal and end your peoples suffering. Nothing good comes out of this.

Sounds reasonable if you don't actually think about it. Once you do, you realize how empty an observation it is. Got any specifics?

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1 minute ago, bristolboy said:

Sounds reasonable if you don't actually think about it. Once you do, you realize how empty an observation it is. Got any specifics?

I am so happy to hear that you have given your post so much thought. Feels safe to know that at least one of us know what he is talking about.

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17 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

I am so happy to hear that you have given your post so much thought. Feels safe to know that at least one of us know what he is talking about.

When somebody writes the kind of sentiment that wouldn't be out of place on a greeting card, it's difficult not to detect BS.

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13 hours ago, flossie35 said:

Unbelievable nonsense. The government's own experts have produced an analysis which is all very bad news.

what the governments "own experts" what the same mob who said we,d face financial armhageddon if we didn,t join the euro?the same mob who couldn,t see the crash of 2008 coming?and the authors of the project fear leaflet?

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1 hour ago, Matzzon said:

How long are these two irresponsible parts going to be allowed to continue? One is messing up the pound, the other bloc is messing up the euro. Just make a deal and end your peoples suffering. Nothing good comes out of this.

the eu dosen,t want us to leave[not for any sentimental reason like liberating them from the nazis] just because they want our money,so will not give us sweet fa,i thought it would have been obvious to even the most hardened remainer when cameron went to the eu pleading for a change in eu law to prevent eu citizens coming to the uk and abusing ourwelfare state,they laughed in his face,so what type of deal does anyone think the eu will give us?that scheme remainer may tried to push thru 3 times which would have kept us in forever?

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8 hours ago, jimballard said:

Some people seem to think this is funny. For me and my family this is turning out to be a huge tradgedy. At the age of 62 I can no longer properly support my family in Thailand and will have to leave my wife and children to go back to England to try to find work. I have not been to England for over 10 years and have nothing there. I have no idea what I will do maybe drive a taxi or van. Fun and games for Boris johnson and him millionair mates but disaster for the little people.

whilst i sympathise with your personal position,it would appear the baht is getting too strong against all major currencies,not just sterling,and its not all down to brexit..still, you still have a country you can go back to[at the moment]

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8 hours ago, jimballard said:

Some people seem to think this is funny. For me and my family this is turning out to be a huge tradgedy. At the age of 62 I can no longer properly support my family in Thailand and will have to leave my wife and children to go back to England to try to find work. I have not been to England for over 10 years and have nothing there. I have no idea what I will do maybe drive a taxi or van. Fun and games for Boris johnson and him millionair mates but disaster for the little people.

there will be more like you,probably some on here still fighting the brexit corner,but they in true brexiteer fashion will not admit it though,but they did learn something from their time in thailand though,how to save face.<deleted> dont enter a spoons when you go back

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