UTCC forecasts export downturn in 2019’s second half

[webfact]

UTCC forecasts export downturn in 2019’s second half

 

   

BANGKOK, 31 July 2019 (NNT) - The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s Center for International Trade Studies, has forecast Thailand’s total export value will drop for the first time in four years due to the world’s economic slowdown, the sustained trade war and the strong baht. In this year’s first half, Thailand’s combined export value registered a 2.9% drop.

 

Att Phisalwanich, director of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s Center for International Trade Studies, predicted that the country’s total export value this year will amount to some 251 billion dollars, meaning a 0.64% drop, which would be the first time in four years.

 

That compares to world economic growth which is expected to rise 3.2%, while the Dubai crude oil price will remain around 60 dollars a barrel, and the baht at 30 baht a dollar US. This is largely due to the world’s economic downturn and the trade war between the United States and China. The U.S. and China plan to raise some 320 billion dollars and 60 billion dollars in increased import tariffs respectively. Thailand’s export growth might drop 2% if the trade war persists in the foreseeable future.

 

Given the sustained rise of the baht, export values in the Thai currency will drop 0.14%. Besides, oil price fluctuations and other factors such as FTA dealings between the European Union and Vietnam, Brexit and the planned increase in Thailand’s daily minimum wage, are yet to be closely monitored.

 

The government should promptly expand export markets in India and Africa and conclude FTA dealings with the EU to keep Thailand competitive with Vietnam, according to the director of the UTCC study center. Thailand’s total export income could possibly rise by 21 billion dollars monthly, amounting to a 2.9% increase. However, it will eventually drop 1.32% if the world’s economic growth rises 3%, the crude oil price remains at around 50 dollars a barrel and the baht drops to some 29 baht a dollar.

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2019-07-31

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[tracker1]

Knew he was a university graduate with that prediction !

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The government should promptly expand export markets in India and Africa

Thailand exports to India have been on the average fairly level since 2011 https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports/india

There's been for the last five years no apparent urgency to expand exports to India so what's different now?

 

Concerning Africa, that's a continent and not a country so the statement is meaningless in context. You have to look at each nation's markets. Looking at a couple it seems perplexing that there's an available African nation market to which Thailand can "promptly" expand into.

• Exports to South Africa have been in a huge decline since 2012
• Exports to Nigeria have crashed since 2014

There needs to be more economic strategic thinking from the Thai government than relying on hopes and wishes.

 

[Eric Loh]

Nothing to worry with Prayut at the helm of the economic team.