Growth in Q2 slowest in 19 quarters at 2.3 per cent

[webfact]

Growth in Q2 slowest in 19 quarters at 2.3 per cent

By The Nation

 

 

Economic growth sharply slowed in the second quarter to 2.3 per cent due to both external and domestic factors, according to a state think-tank report released today( August 19). Gross domestic product in the second quarter expanded by 2.3 per cent, a drop from the 2.8-per-cent growth rate in the first quarter, said the economic report released by National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), a state think tank.

 

 

The 2.3 per cent growth rate is the slowest in 19 quarters, or nearly five years.

 

GDP grew by 2.6 per cent overall for the first half of the year. However, the economy in the first half was affected by the trade war, a slowdown in the global economy, market volatility and the delay forming government after March’s general election, said Thosaporn Sirisumphand, the NESDC secretary general.

 

 

Unfavourable conditions have impacted on consumer and investor confidence, according to the report, with Thai exports contracting and a slowing of growth in tourist arrivals due to economic conditions in their own countries.

 

The think tank forecast the full year’s growth could still achieve 3 per cent, or a range between 2.7-3.2 .

 

“The economy is expect to recover soon,” Thosaporn said, expressing his optimism that the economic stimulus package due to for the Cabinet’s approval tomorrow would help shore up the economy.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30374954

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-08-19

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[StayinThailand2much]

And, despite such disastrous news for Thailand's economy, the country's currency, as we speak, continues to appreciate vs. all major currencies (dollar, euro, yen, renminbi; take your pick)...

 

Either there is major currency speculation going on, or expectations were very low in the first place, despite inflated projections of economic growth by government agencies and local banks.

Edited August 19, 2019 by StayinThailand2much

[smedly]

42 minutes ago, webfact said:

GDP grew by 2.6 per cent overall for the first half of the year. However, the economy in the first half was affected by the trade war, a slowdown in the global economy, market volatility and the delay forming government after March’s general election, said Thosaporn Sirisumphand, the NESDC secretary general.

 

Unfavourable conditions have impacted on consumer and investor confidence, according to the report, with Thai exports contracting and a slowing of growth in tourist arrivals due to economic conditions in their own countries.

They cited every possible reason except the correct one

 

The Elephant in the room

 

****The Strength of the BAHT****

[Chang_paarp]

43 minutes ago, webfact said:

 

The 2.3 per cent growth rate is the slowest in 19 quarters, or nearly five years.

 

Welcome to the real world. At least there is some growth.

44 minutes ago, webfact said:

Unfavourable conditions have impacted on consumer and investor confidence, according to the report, with Thai exports contracting and a slowing of growth in tourist arrivals due to economic conditions in their own countries.

 

Some real world there, with a bit of blame shifting.

45 minutes ago, webfact said:

The think tank forecast the full year’s growth could still achieve 3 per cent, or a range between 2.7-3.2 .

 

“The economy is expect to recover soon,” Thosaporn said, expressing his optimism that the economic stimulus package due to for the Cabinet’s approval tomorrow would help shore up the economy.

So much for the real world outlook.

[Cadbury]

Is a recession knocking on the door? After 5 years of junta style economic management and an incompetent administration the fiscal wheels look like falling off completely. The PM's fetish for unproductive micro management hasn't helped.

The trade war has been a bonanza for Vietnam yet Thailand didn't have the nous to realise there were opportunities out there. So only now two years too late do they decide to organise some futile roadshow which will amount to nothing more than a junket.

Greed, corruption and coups are killing Thailand. Death by a thousand self inflicted cuts!

 

 

 

[smedly]

there is a battle going on in Thailand right now

 

There are people who enrich themselves through corruption and want a strong baht because they want to continue to invest/launder their ill gotten gains on foreign soil, they are only interested self enrichment and greed and have little interest in the country and economic strength - it doesn't affect them

 

Then you have the genuine businesses that rely on Thailands main source of income - Exports and Tourism - the backbone of the Thai economy which is disintegrating 

 

At some point in the near future this will all come to a head and the fallout could be dire 

 

 

We have seen this scenario play out in several countries throughout the world - countries that now suffer from hyper inflation - a worthless currency and economic implosion

Edited August 19, 2019 by smedly

[Fex Bluse]

41 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

The trade war has been a bonanza for Vietnam yet Thailand didn't have the nous to realise there were opportunities out there.

They were too busy arrogantly proclaiming that the trade war would have no effect on them - before anybody really knew what to expect, they had all the answers. 

 

We all recall the many such news articles here.

Edited August 19, 2019 by Fex Bluse

[timendres]

36 minutes ago, smedly said:

We have seen this scenario play out in several countries throughout the world - countries that now suffer from hyper inflation - a worthless currency and economic implosion

Hyper-inflation and economic implosion are not likely. But the gravy train will end. And the average Thai will pay the price. The first chart is clearly a trend maker, and I believe that no amount of stimulus packages is going to turn it around. If the US and Europe go into recession, the fantasy here will quickly turn into reality.

[smedly]

8 minutes ago, timendres said:

Hyper-inflation and economic implosion are not likely. But the gravy train will end. And the average Thai will pay the price. The first chart is clearly a trend maker, and I believe that no amount of stimulus packages is going to turn it around. If the US and Europe go into recession, the fantasy here will quickly turn into reality.

totally agree 

 

corruption is generally sustainable providing the countries core economics are robust (for Thailand - tourism and exports and relying on foreign investment by providing  cheap labour) however, development will be none existent, the poor remain poor, infrastructure remains static and underdeveloped, zero to little welfare of the people, services underfunded, poor standards and safety, lawlessness and greed, high crime rates, police under funded and under trained (costs money), poor education, all because trillions that should be spent on such things ends up in deep greedy corrupt pockets

 

Once the core economics start to falter it all comes crumbling down, it's like someone with a real bad drinking and gambling habit - it eventually catches up

[iamariva1957]

A recession is on the way I fear. And Thailand is shooting itself in the foot. Not with a 9mm (which wouldn't do the foot any good at all) but with a 12 gauge shotgun (which would take off the foot and most of the ankle!) 

Ahh... the Thai common sense at work. I wish they would just open there eyes and look around.

[Isaan sailor]

Yes, Thailand will miss out on the great manufacturing shift out of Communist China.  Unfortunately the government has sided clearly with the ChiComs—with multiple bi-lateral trade deals.  Vietnam and Taiwan will leave Thailand in the dust of economic Has-Beens. 

[Sticky Wicket]

6 hours ago, Chang_paarp said:

Welcome to the real world. At least there is some growth.

Some real world there, with a bit of blame shifting.

So much for the real world outlook.

3rd world countries should be growing exponentially to pay for the ageing population.

You really are clueless

Thailand has one of the worst ageing populations in the world and no cash (that they are willing to part with) to pay for it.

 

[Srikcir]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

The think tank forecast the full year’s growth could still achieve 3 per cent, or a range between 2.7-3.2 .

Already hedging its forecast to a range versus the government's aim cited earlier today to boost economic growth by 3 per cent to counter both uncertain domestic conditions and the impact of trade war between the United States and China. 

[Sticky Wicket]

Circa 1870 Britain's produced about 20% of the world's GDP!

And now it's struggling due to huge war and social expenditure

 

In 20 years Thailand will be absolutely on it's knees

[Mavideol]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

GDP grew by 2.6 per cent overall for the first half of the year. However, the economy in the first half was affected by the trade war, a slowdown in the global economy, market volatility and the delay forming government after March’s general election, said Thosaporn Sirisumphand, the NESDC secretary general.

as always, easy to blame outsiders or the bad weather..... it's not us it's them

[Chivas]

7 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

And, despite such disastrous news for Thailand's economy, the country's currency, as we speak, continues to appreciate vs. all major currencies (dollar, euro, yen, renminbi; take your pick)...

 

lol seriously I give up. How people can be granted passports but not understand currency pairings is beyond me

[Chang_paarp]

16 minutes ago, Sticky Wicket said:

3rd world countries should be growing exponentially to pay for the ageing population.

You really are clueless

Thailand has one of the worst ageing populations in the world and no cash (that they are willing to part with) to pay for it.

 

Clueless maybe, but, you need to do a little bit of reading.

Thailand has not been a third world country for well over a decade or two, it has been the lists of developing countries for quite some time now.

The treatment ageing population of Thailand is one of the symptoms of it being a developing country rather than third world. Third world countries typically have a young population. As to their willingness or ability to pay for this, I agree with you they are unwilling or unable to fund the results, especially as the traditional mores are breaking down while they rush to embrace the social mores of the west. In the west we put our old folk into institutions and rarely visit them, hoping the government will pay for the institution and the that institution will take care of our old folk. The failure of this view is being shown as misguided given the results of the royal commission in Australia. 

[Nowisee]

6 hours ago, smedly said:

There are people who enrich themselves through corruption and want a strong baht because they want to continue to invest/launder their ill gotten gains on foreign soil, they are only interested self enrichment and greed and have little interest in the country and economic strength - it doesn't affect them

 

Then you have the genuine businesses that rely on Thailands main source of income - Exports and Tourism - the backbone of the Thai economy which is disintegrating 

 

At some point in the near future this will all come to a head and the fallout could be dire 

 

We have seen this scenario play out in several countries throughout the world - countries that now suffer from hyper inflation - a worthless currency and economic implosion

The Thai population apathetically allowed this to happen, they've been asleep and doing nothing for the betterment of the country.  Compare this to the Hong Kong'ers.  

The "leadership" here is miserably inadequate and really, the whole place deserves it.  

 

35 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Yes, Thailand will miss out on the great manufacturing shift out of Communist China.  Unfortunately the government has sided clearly with the ChiComs—with multiple bi-lateral trade deals.  Vietnam and Taiwan will leave Thailand in the dust of economic Has-Beens. 

Great analysis IMO.  Thais will be paying for this for a long time.  

 

[Isaan sailor]

In regards to the Baht surging storm against the USD--I see a silver lining.  Driving around Isaan and the rest of Thailand, I can't help notice the fair amount of highway construction.  And surprise, surprise dozens upon dozens of spanking new CAT (Caterpillar) road graders, rollers and huge backhoes.  So at least these contractors with the huge government contracts make Baht purchases of quality American road building equipment.  So grade, roll and dig, gentlemen.  Get all the CAT stuff you need.  Then maybe the Baht will recede to a 10-year average...

[mfd101]

Meantime, we all wait breathlessly for the baht to fall ... No sign yet.

 

Oh, wait on! was that a movement I just detected? ...

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Yes, Thailand will miss out on the great manufacturing shift out of Communist China.  Unfortunately the government has sided clearly with the ChiComs—with multiple bi-lateral trade deals.  Vietnam and Taiwan will leave Thailand in the dust of economic Has-Beens. 

There's also the 4th industrial revolution ongoing as I write. Won't be long before cheap labor with little or no qualifications is replaced by robots and manufacturing returns to 1st world - albeit automated. The countries that have efficient and flexible education systems will be winners. Thailand will be far at the losing end.

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/

Edited August 19, 2019 by DrTuner

[Kaoboi Bebobp]

If I'm reading the chart correctly, goods and services exports have contracted, i.e., plunged, 6.1% in Q1 and Q2. (Although I don't really know what "by expenditure approach" means). This continues a trend since Q3 2018. And yet, the director is optimistic about the Thai economy? This reminds me of the rusty ferries plying the Gulf islands.

[Mac98]

Silver linings: When the collapse comes there will be friendlier and better looking girls hanging onto poles, chrome and otherwise. And casinos may line the southern beaches to compete with Cambodia.

[jethro69]

a slowing of growth in tourist arrivals due to economic conditions in their own countries

 

 

Or simply because it's too hard to stay (visiting) in the country. 

[DrTuner]

8 hours ago, Mac98 said:

Silver linings: When the collapse comes there will be friendlier and better looking girls hanging onto poles, chrome and otherwise. 

Not really. Lookers have been going outside Thailand for years now, same will continue and the chrome pole industry is losing to online competition. A pity, one of the attractions was sitting down for a beer and see them gyrate.