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World-beating currency gives Thailand major economic headache


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2 hours ago, Cadbury said:

For expats and exporters who were hoping it might fall sometime soon. From Bloomberg. 

"......strategists say the currency isn’t likely to lose its newfound status as a haven anytime soon, thanks to Thailand’s rising current-account surplus and record foreign reserves".

“’Thai baht remains a safe haven as we haven’t had significant impact from the worsening trade war like other emerging markets,” said Jitipol Bangkok-based chief strategist at Krung Thai Bank Pcl. The third most-accurate forecaster for the currency last quarter predicts the baht will rise to 30.25 per dollar by the end of the year",

The baht is a double edged sword. Great for the military and the rich elite who get their money out and store it offshore and watch it grow but a disaster for exports and the economy. 

 

 

People must realise the military and the rich elite are far more important than exports and the economy, 

Basic 101 economic lesson for the hi-so. 

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59 minutes ago, smedly said:

best performing" is when the currency is supporting the economy,

Thai currency is supporting the economy. Thailand has a Western problem of aging population with low growth rate and the problem of developing countries trapped in a middle income economy. And this is caused by opening up brothels  fronting as bars and pimping nation's daughters to sexpats for marriage for decades. No middle income economy has escaped poverty by this formula. It sounds harsh and nobody, Thais and farangs, will admit it because it sounds bad. 

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2 hours ago, Cadbury said:

For expats and exporters who were hoping it might fall sometime soon. From Bloomberg. 

"......strategists say the currency isn’t likely to lose its newfound status as a haven anytime soon, thanks to Thailand’s rising current-account surplus and record foreign reserves".

“’Thai baht remains a safe haven as we haven’t had significant impact from the worsening trade war like other emerging markets,” said Jitipol Bangkok-based chief strategist at Krung Thai Bank Pcl. The third most-accurate forecaster for the currency last quarter predicts the baht will rise to 30.25 per dollar by the end of the year",

The baht is a double edged sword. Great for the military and the rich elite who get their money out and store it offshore and watch it grow but a disaster for exports and the economy. 

 

 

yes and my god whatever you do, don't open a unsafe Thai bank account five years ago and bring your money into the country. 100% for sure you will lose it all.:clap2:if I had a baht for every time I heard that sage advice here on TV I could make a fruit smoothie. 

 

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Asia is not immune to the coming western crash. There is a lot of "hot" money from western hedgefunds and other sources that has been funneled into the Asian markets. Once the SHTF this money will be pulled out. Kinda like pulling the rug out from under them. And as a crash escalates and the Chinese hot money also gets pulled out...OUCH! All these smaller countries who looked so good are out of funds and in deep water. The financial markets are so connected now that it will be like an economic tsunami originating from the western countries spreads out and wrecks havoc worldwide.

 

Thailand is no different. They will be in an even more precarious position as the export drops like a rock and tourism halts to nothing. Thailand is not different. And this time is not different.

 

There is a lot of doom and gloom on the financial horizon. Best be prepared. The only uncertain thing is the timing. I have been waiting for this for several years already, but the central banks have kept papering it over with more debt and "stimulus". Creating even more hot money. But at some point the dam will break.

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Yes the US does monitor currency fixing which is what is clearly going on here. Their isn't anything in this country worth a plug nickel and nothing of value to offer the rest of the world. All of this is very unfortunate for the average Thai citizen as they are very wonderful people. I have many Thai friends here and there is a very real sadness behind those beautiful smiles we have all grown to love.

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1 hour ago, RobbyXNorway said:

Asia is not immune to the coming western crash. There is a lot of "hot" money from western hedgefunds and other sources that has been funneled into the Asian markets. Once the SHTF this money will be pulled out. Kinda like pulling the rug out from under them. And as a crash escalates and the Chinese hot money also gets pulled out...OUCH! All these smaller countries who looked so good are out of funds and in deep water. The financial markets are so connected now that it will be like an economic tsunami originating from the western countries spreads out and wrecks havoc worldwide.

 

Thailand is no different. They will be in an even more precarious position as the export drops like a rock and tourism halts to nothing. Thailand is not different. And this time is not different.

 

There is a lot of doom and gloom on the financial horizon. Best be prepared. The only uncertain thing is the timing. I have been waiting for this for several years already, but the central banks have kept papering it over with more debt and "stimulus". Creating even more hot money. But at some point the dam will break.

You got it all right. 

I hope this happens, as this will increase the value of Euro to THB immense. If your money comes from "Europe" then this is the best case scenario. 
In addition as everyone will loose their home/cars (can't pay the loan) and maybe jobs, this will also decrease the costs of some goods in Thailand.

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24 minutes ago, BobinBKK said:

Yes the US does monitor currency fixing which is what is clearly going on here. Their isn't anything in this country worth a plug nickel and nothing of value to offer the rest of the world. All of this is very unfortunate for the average Thai citizen as they are very wonderful people. I have many Thai friends here and there is a very real sadness behind those beautiful smiles we have all grown to love.

I agree with everything up until the word 'world'. 

 

They most definitely deserve whatever outcome befalls them. 

 

And, I knew the smiles were fake from day 1.

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2 hours ago, onera1961 said:

Thai currency is supporting the economy. Thailand has a Western problem of aging population with low growth rate and the problem of developing countries trapped in a middle income economy. And this is caused by opening up brothels  fronting as bars and pimping nation's daughters to sexpats for marriage for decades. No middle income economy has escaped poverty by this formula. It sounds harsh and nobody, Thais and farangs, will admit it because it sounds bad. 

Don't you think that the unlimited supply of very low paid workers from Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia has a more detrimental effect on Thai lower rung prospects? 

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2 hours ago, burner2014 said:

You got it all right. 

I hope this happens, as this will increase the value of Euro to THB immense. If your money comes from "Europe" then this is the best case scenario. 
In addition as everyone will loose their home/cars (can't pay the loan) and maybe jobs, this will also decrease the costs of some goods in Thailand.

The Euro is in the doldrums at 110 per $100. I'm waiting for 35 baht to the dollar, as it should be, not 30.

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2 hours ago, Cabradelmar said:

Thailand is not where you want to retire is you plan to stay in BKK. Just too expensive. Vnam, PI or Cambo are the up and comers... Way better value right now

Vietnam is fine as long as you avoid Saigon like the plague. What an awful city (traffic-choked by motorbikes, and you can't walk the sidewalks either because the motorbikes are parked everywhere, and also, families who own the shops sit out front and cook.) I haven't been to Hoi An but hear good things about it. A friend of mine runs an international school in Yangon. It seems like a pleasant place to stay for a while, and I imagine the women are amazing if they're anything like the Vietnamese in terms of beauty.

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3 hours ago, RobbyXNorway said:

Asia is not immune to the coming western crash. There is a lot of "hot" money from western hedgefunds and other sources that has been funneled into the Asian markets. Once the SHTF this money will be pulled out. Kinda like pulling the rug out from under them. And as a crash escalates and the Chinese hot money also gets pulled out...OUCH! All these smaller countries who looked so good are out of funds and in deep water. The financial markets are so connected now that it will be like an economic tsunami originating from the western countries spreads out and wrecks havoc worldwide.

 

Thailand is no different. They will be in an even more precarious position as the export drops like a rock and tourism halts to nothing. Thailand is not different. And this time is not different.

 

There is a lot of doom and gloom on the financial horizon. Best be prepared. The only uncertain thing is the timing. I have been waiting for this for several years already, but the central banks have kept papering it over with more debt and "stimulus". Creating even more hot money. But at some point the dam will break.

I never pay any attention to doom-and-gloom scare tactics. Most of them are politically or emotionally based. Here's how the S&P 500 works. * Markets average one 14% annual decline.  * Daily dips of 2% or more occur about 5X a year.  *Every 5 years or so markets decline 30%+.  *Markets rise almost three out of four years.  * Over long periods, markets significantly beat inflation.  *Selling low and buying high NEVER work.  * Turn off Bloomberg and don't check your account.  * Never make important decisions based on emotion or political bias. These are the facts. Everything else is a scare tactic.

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6 hours ago, ChrisY1 said:

Sphincters must be twitching in the finance department....devalue it and risk a crash....keep it high and risk falling business.

But never fear, Thailand has the Prayuth the Great to solve all such simple economic woes with a wave of the hand...!

Can not be devalued ,it has a world currency value they would be cheating on other counties if it was artificially lowered.

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6 hours ago, Teee said:

I gave up on Thailand last year after 2 years.

Bangkok so expensive...and when i came back end of the year for 2 weeks then a month in April...WOW!!! cheaper to live at home in the UK. Well not unless you eat filthy polluted food of the street.

Even condos are getting expensive to rent...to live in comparison as home min 35000bht...hey same rental as UK.

My ex gf who i lived with paid 10000bht a month for a small 35sq foot.

Toooo small. Cheap...but not what i moved to Thailand for to lower my living standards

No disrespect to all you old expats...why would you want to live Bkk?

Maybe easier to pick up a young asian buy her meal drinks and get your leg over?

For you over 65s thats cool for you...till your money runs out which the way the currency is now will get worse before in a couple of years maybe recovers.

My ex (fillapino) kept having a go at me saying i was counting (watching) my money too much. Considering we used to go beach every 3rd weekend if she was not working and trips to Cambodia (great place and cheap) Vietnam Malaysia and brought her to the UK to meet my family and see her family...i would tell her....if you dont count your money then eventually you run out.

She does not understand that money dont grow on trees ha ha

 

 

 

Chiang Mai still seems to be a great bargain in a much better city. I checked rentals a few weeks ago; there are still plenty of apartment for 7 to 10K baht that are adequate for westerners.

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In your gut, you know it’s the hot money inflows at Bank of Thailand.  We know China’s overextended with Belt & Road, a military buildup, trade wars and now a currency problem.  Hot money has to come from somewhere.  It’s not coming from USA, Europe, or Japan.  And China now desperate to open banks up to partial foreign ownership.  

When China goes down, it will take it’s bi-lateral trade partners down with it.  You reap what you sow, Thailand.

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7 hours ago, ChrisY1 said:

Sphincters must be twitching in the finance department....devalue it and risk a crash....keep it high and risk falling business.

But never fear, Thailand has the Prayuth the Great to solve all such simple economic woes with a wave of the hand...!

Yeah the blind leading the blind

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5 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

yes and my god whatever you do, don't open a unsafe Thai bank account five years ago and bring your money into the country. 100% for sure you will lose it all.:clap2:if I had a baht for every time I heard that sage advice here on TV I could make a fruit smoothie. 

 

Just 1 smoothie, now that Is a definite under-estimation, it should be at least 2

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