China's Debt Problem

[CaptainNemo]

There are countless articles about different aspects to this issue, and it's impact on Thailand would be noticed if or when a correction happens.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-faces-1-growth-in-2030s-if-reform-lags-World-Bank

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-mountain-of-bad-debt-climbs-10-in-6-months

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-companies-unseen-foreign-debt-210000578.html

Forget the Trade War. China Is Already in Crisis - Bloomberg How Close Is China To A Financial Crisis?

Is China About to Cause the Next Asian Economic Crisis? | RealClearPolitics

https://www.globalresearch.ca/chinas-debt-load-locus-next-crisis/5682953

http://www.ejinsight.com/20190719-chinas-debt-tops-300-of-gdp-now-15-of-global-total-iif-says/

 

China's debt to GDP ratio has reportedly hit 300%, which sounds like the largest in the world, and puts a new slant on what it's doing in Hong Kong.

 

Chinese local government debt remains hidden but could be as high as USD 6Tn; China holds around $3Tn in US debt; and hidden corporate foreign debt is resulting in higher debt maintenance costs. China has already had to bail out banks, and there are moral hazard concerns with the state behind everything. Foreign companies are leaving, Chinese personal capital is leaving and being invested in property overseas.

President Xi is very nationalistic and there is a government drive to lift everyone out of poverty over the next 20 years.

The whole Belt-and-Road thing seems to be about getting unproductive workers out of the way as China has to keep people employed building things that nobody will buy to maintain internal stability.

 

15% of global debt, over USD 40 trillion. Maybe 329% of GDP.

 

How long can China hide this problem before something breaks, and China's miracle is over? I'm wondering whether 2020 will see the first cracks, and a change in direction for the Baht.

[ubonjoe]

Topic is not directly related to Thailand.

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