Something to consider...it is only a forecast!

[CaptainNemo]

11 hours ago, worgeordie said:

China's debt bomb, I thought China was holding a lot of U.S. debt,

They are, about $3Tn, but that's a fraction of their total potential debt of $40+Tn.

That's a lorra lorra socks... I think it's more than half of stock market trade.

I think the total value of the world's biggest banks is around £25Tn. Scary.

Quote

what I don't understand with so many countries in huge debt,who

is holding all this debt ?, anybody really know?

That's basically the problem... it's borrowing against the future... (e.g.: future growth, that may or may not happen) and that's where the defaulting/moral hazard comes in... In China they are estimated to have about $6Tn of local government debt, and it's been a way of absorbing debt and sweeping it under the carpet.

Eventually, someone will ask for their money back, or there'll be no income left to service the debts, and then defaulting starts happening, and that can be contagious as confidence falls like dominos.

 

When debts that are held with the expectation they'll be paid off, and companies/organisations/governments start selling off assets to try and fill the holes, then prices start tumbling. Confidence in countries and their currencies falls as growth looks like tumbling, and if it happens in China, you can bet that this forecast will be way off the mark.

Edited September 20, 2019 by CaptainNemo

[CaptainNemo]

8 minutes ago, Naam said:

[Puchaiyank]

2 minutes ago, CaptainNemo said:

????

[bkk6060]

US will go to 25 or 26.

[Pib]

8 hours ago, Cadbury said:

This is the link,

https://longforecast.com/

I stumbled across that website over the years.  They always seem to forecast a download draconian trend that does not come true.   It seems if the current trend is say down at 0.2% per month then they just forecast that same trend (with a few brief up periods) to continue for the next several years.   I remember a couple years ago it was forecasting around a 25 baht to the dollar by the end of 2018....obviously that didn't come true.  Forecasting FX more than a few weeks or months out is pure "wild ass guessing."

[Ondral]

On 9/20/2019 at 8:52 AM, worgeordie said:

China's debt bomb, I thought China was holding a lot of U.S. debt,

what I don't understand with so many countries in huge debt,who

is holding all this debt ?, anybody really know?

regards Worgeordie

An excellent question!  Debt, like money, is a fiction, a creation of our minds.  When we understand this we become free.