Thailand Is Down...

[larvidchr]

Without being an expert on Thai turism I will tell you anyway, that yesterday I spoke with 2 owners of realestate companies here in Pattaya, and they told me that things have ground to an almost dead stop over the last many months, they simply can not sell houses, so according to them it is not only low income people that choose to leave( if that is the case?), but also people with money to spend that now choose not to spend them here in Thailand.

I belive that things like this have a tendency to spiral out of control, diktatorship, low growth rate, stop from outside investors in the big buisness, bad pres in the west, insurgency in the south, tsunami the list is long and every bit of it is being vigorusly reported at least in the western country I come from, and I know my own people well enough to know that these things will instantly put a lot of people of coming here.

A subject like this is also very sensitive for a lot of people, and I clearly sense this in some of the posts, to some people with investments in this country, be it property or somthing else, the mere mentioning of that things might go sour for a while is almost a crime, and they react quite strongly, but I fear they are not being objective. on my estate a house was just sold with a 50% loss 2,5 mill. bath, and there are on a 2 year old estate allready several houses for sale and several for rent out off only 36 houses all in all, and you have to belive when I tell you that it is a very nice estate well placed and well kept.

Please dont slaugther me, but in my purely personal opinion, Thailand is rapidly heading for a low spell that will put Thailand several years back compared to the economic growth in the surrounding nations.

Best regards.

[KhunMarco]

Without being an expert on Thai turism I will tell you anyway, that yesterday I spoke with 2 owners of realestate companies here in Pattaya, and they told me that things have ground to an almost dead stop over the last many months...snip...

Thanks for the reality check.

[LaoPo]

Without being an expert on Thai turism I will tell you anyway, that yesterday I spoke with 2 owners of realestate companies here in Pattaya, and they told me that things have ground to an almost dead stop over the last many months, they simply can not sell houses, so according to them it is not only low income people that choose to leave( if that is the case?), but also people with money to spend that now choose not to spend them here in Thailand.

I belive that things like this have a tendency to spiral out of control, diktatorship, low growth rate, stop from outside investors in the big buisness, bad pres in the west, insurgency in the south, tsunami the list is long and every bit of it is being vigorusly reported at least in the western country I come from, and I know my own people well enough to know that these things will instantly put a lot of people of coming here.

A subject like this is also very sensitive for a lot of people, and I clearly sense this in some of the posts, to some people with investments in this country, be it property or somthing else, the mere mentioning of that things might go sour for a while is almost a crime, and they react quite strongly, but I fear they are not being objective. on my estate a house was just sold with a 50% loss 2,5 mill. bath, and there are on a 2 year old estate allready several houses for sale and several for rent out off only 36 houses all in all, and you have to belive when I tell you that it is a very nice estate well placed and well kept.

Please dont slaugther me, but in my purely personal opinion, Thailand is rapidly heading for a low spell that will put Thailand several years back compared to the economic growth in the surrounding nations.

Best regards.

Some people on TV are deaf to signals like yours, but time will tell. But I think you're right.

There are too many signals of 'unhappy' threads in the past 6 months or so, maybe longer. I know some Farang people on a Thai island who are desperately trying to sell their houses; so far they didn't succeed and are 'stuck' to stay or sell at a very low price.

The other problem is that a lot of people stick to their asking-selling prices which are in fact unrealistic but that's the same in Europe and the US.

Friends of mine, emigrating to Spain, recently sold their house (in EU) for some 25% less than they had in mind and they even spent a lot of money to update their house...complete repainted, new kitchen, bathroom etc... I told them (before they did that) to sell their house at a certain price but they refused to listen. After the refurbishing they had to sell for less than I advised.....

That hurts!

LaoPo

[chevykanteve]

I just found this from an Australian publication--

Last Updated 08/04/2007, 15:37:28 Select text size:

Official statistics show Asian tourists have begun turning away from Thailand.

The move has prompted concern that holidaymakers might be avoiding the kingdom because of its continuing political woes.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand says the number of tourists arriving from East Asia dropped by 7.3 percent in the first two months of the year, compared to the same period last year.

The managing director of travel agent Destination Asia says sensitive Asian tourists, from Japan for example, have been scared away from Bangkok due to security concerns.

In recent years Southeast Asia has seen increasing competition for tourist dollars, especially among Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore and Hong Kong.

[onzestan]

I just found this from an Australian publication--

Last Updated 08/04/2007, 15:37:28 Select text size:

Official statistics show Asian tourists have begun turning away from Thailand.

The move has prompted concern that holidaymakers might be avoiding the kingdom because of its continuing political woes.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand says the number of tourists arriving from East Asia dropped by 7.3 percent in the first two months of the year, compared to the same period last year.

The managing director of travel agent Destination Asia says sensitive Asian tourists, from Japan for example, have been scared away from Bangkok due to security concerns.

In recent years Southeast Asia has seen increasing competition for tourist dollars, especially among Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore and Hong Kong.

I don't think its politics that are turning tourists away, but western embassies that tell people to stay away because of possible muslim violence.

Cheers

onzestan

[midas]

There are too many signals of 'unhappy' threads in the past 6 months or so, maybe longer. I know some Farang people on a Thai island who are desperately trying to sell their houses; so far they didn't succeed and are 'stuck' to stay or sell at a very low price.

The other problem is that a lot of people stick to their asking-selling prices which are in fact unrealistic but that's the same in Europe and the US.

Friends of mine, emigrating to Spain, recently sold their house (in EU) for some 25% less than they had in mind and they even spent a lot of money to update their house...complete repainted, new kitchen, bathroom etc... I told them (before they did that) to sell their house at a certain price but they refused to listen. After the refurbishing they had to sell for less than I advised.....

That hurts!

LaoPo[/color]

I know - this always amazes me and the usual argument is " it will recover because it's always done so in the past " !!

[Ricardo]

I just found this from an Australian publication--

Last Updated 08/04/2007, 15:37:28 Select text size:

Official statistics show Asian tourists have begun turning away from Thailand.

The move has prompted concern that holidaymakers might be avoiding the kingdom because of its continuing political woes.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand says the number of tourists arriving from East Asia dropped by 7.3 percent in the first two months of the year, compared to the same period last year.

The managing director of travel agent Destination Asia says sensitive Asian tourists, from Japan for example, have been scared away from Bangkok due to security concerns.

In recent years Southeast Asia has seen increasing competition for tourist dollars, especially among Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore and Hong Kong.

That would presumably be the same TAT, who in recent years have spent many millions, avidly pursuing Asian tourists, rather than the regular farang-market, which they had down-graded.

Wonder whether they ever do any cost/benefit analysis on their promotional-spending ?

Bring Back the Back-Packers - All Is Forgiven !

[cclub75]

Indeed.

We should congratulate Jasreeve17 for his observations on the ground... He was right.

Now we need stats for march, to see if it's a real trend.

April with Songkran might be a relief.

Asian tourists vote with their feet

Official statistics show that tourists from the region have begun turning away, prompting concern the neighbours are avoiding Thailand because of continuing insecurity and political woes.

The number of tourists arriving from East Asia dropped by 7.3 per cent in the first two months of the year, compared to the same period in 2006, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) said.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=117948

[jimmy5L]

Nobody is talking about :

Flight tickets more expensive,

Crime is up,

Salaries and pensions in Europe ain’t following,

Moslim problems (in the south),

And off course the baht and the visa problems!

No wonder it’s getting slower,

[jumnien]

All you optimists predicting lower prices for hotels and properties, less traffic, less farang deadwood about, generally a better lifestyle for those of us who stay in Thailand - I just hope you are correct. The problem is I've heard these same promises for the last 9 years. If things get better around here they are just going to get worse.

[Prakanong]

Nobody is talking about :

Flight tickets more expensive,

Crime is up,

Salaries and pensions in Europe ain’t following,

Moslim problems (in the south),

And off course the baht and the visa problems!

No wonder it’s getting slower,

I would take issue with flight tickets being more expensive

I see many lower in actual GBP terms now than they were 12-15 years ago never mind real terms.

[appleman_thai]

After almost 6 years in Thailand I jumped ship and I am back in Ireland.

I bought condos in Thailand and I see them as a long term investment..... people looking to make a quick buck on property are going to loose!

One of my condos is empty now and I am finding it hard to rent it out. THat was never the case before.

I reckon things are going to go downhill in the next 2 years or so but they WILL bounce back. If you are willing to hang in there then things will work out!

IN the end, I think this downturn will be good news for Thailand. It will stabilize things and people will have a more realistic outlook! I think too many people were getting carried away - boomnig property prices, increased disposable income and spend, spend, spend.

But this was all based on debt!

[Bruce1]

Seem to be a lot of jobs advertised on the ajarn job board at the moment. Is that unusual or just this time of year?

[ThaiFelix]

Seem to be a lot of jobs advertised on the ajarn job board at the moment. Is that unusual or just this time of year?

Next month is the beginning of the school year for a lot (not all) of schools so the demand is usually higher now in my experience. Some schools put off hiring until after the holidays are over so they dont have to pay newcomers for the break. IMHO it is usual.

But on the general topic, the streets around my joint have been quiet the last couple of weeks (Thaiwise) but my wife tells me a lot have left already for the Songkran festival. Some restaurants in the nearby market have closed till after Songkran because its so quiet. This indicates to me that things cant be too bad for the average if they can go away early or just close down 10 days before.

[Prakanong]

"N the end, I think this downturn will be good news for Thailand. It will stabilize things and people will have a more realistic outlook! I think too many people were getting carried away - boomnig property prices, increased disposable income and spend, spend, spend.

But this was all based on debt!"

Is this cyclical then - this is exactly what some said after the 97 crash.

Seems lessons are not heeded although this is hardly like the 97 crash though.

[OlRedEyes]

"N the end, I think this downturn will be good news for Thailand. It will stabilize things and people will have a more realistic outlook! I think too many people were getting carried away - boomnig property prices, increased disposable income and spend, spend, spend.

But this was all based on debt!"

Is this cyclical then - this is exactly what some said after the 97 crash.

Seems lessons are not heeded although this is hardly like the 97 crash though.

Everything is cyclical, the question is merely how long and how deep the down cycle is.

One thing I keep my eye on is Thailand's 'anti-farang' temperature, which has been rising steadily over a number of years now. If things really go south, given the Thai's tendency towards seeking scapegoats and explosive temperament, well, TiT, anything can happen. Logic won't dictate events.

Edited April 8, 2007 by OlRedEyes

[Prakanong]

"N the end, I think this downturn will be good news for Thailand. It will stabilize things and people will have a more realistic outlook! I think too many people were getting carried away - boomnig property prices, increased disposable income and spend, spend, spend.

But this was all based on debt!"

Is this cyclical then - this is exactly what some said after the 97 crash.

Seems lessons are not heeded although this is hardly like the 97 crash though.

Everything is cyclical, the question is merely how long and how deep the down cycle is.

One thing I keep my eye on is Thailand's 'anti-farang' temperature, which has been rising steadily over a number of years now. If things really go south, given the Thai's tendency towards seeking scapegoats and explosive temperament, well, TiT, anything can happen. Logic won't dictate events.

Remember the anti-IMF grafitti around Bangkok after 97 and how the economic downturn was the fault of the IMF if you talked to any Thai - remember the "IMF Sales" - oh how its never their fault and there always has to be a scapegoat -- ROFLMAO

[OlRedEyes]

ROFLMAO

I wouldn't. Best to take it seriously.

[MBINSING]

It's called "Karma".

Good point, & I think that you might be right.

(re your essendon pic - I used to think that Aussie rules was stupid. Then I spent 3 months in Darwin, watched a few games, and loved it... a great day out, add the beers & )

HEY U GUYS GET IT THE GOVT IS ANTI FARANG !!! ALL THE LAWS ARE AGAINST WESTERN SOCIETY AND ALL THAT REPRESENT IT, ALL THE GOVT WANT IS THE CORRUPTION TO CONTINUE ?

[endure]

If MBINSING carries on the way he's started, capslock will be the least of his problems.

[larvidchr]

"N the end, I think this downturn will be good news for Thailand. It will stabilize things and people will have a more realistic outlook! I think too many people were getting carried away - boomnig property prices, increased disposable income and spend, spend, spend.

But this was all based on debt!"

Is this cyclical then - this is exactly what some said after the 97 crash.

Seems lessons are not heeded although this is hardly like the 97 crash though.

Everything is cyclical, the question is merely how long and how deep the down cycle is.

One thing I keep my eye on is Thailand's 'anti-farang' temperature, which has been rising steadily over a number of years now. If things really go south, given the Thai's tendency towards seeking scapegoats and explosive temperament, well, TiT, anything can happen. Logic won't dictate events.

Try this just for fun, this is Sweeden suddenly being swamped by black Nigerians, who with their newfound oilwealth desides that Sweeden is the place to be, allmost all the pretty tall blonde girls turn their backs on the Sweedish men, all the beuatifull houses is being sold to Nigerians, the property prices get so high that the majority of Sweedes themselfes cant afford to invest in a home, the city centers change with lots of shops catering exclusivly for Nigerians, the Sweedish costums and culture is being trampeld on, not of malice but mostly by the Nigerians ignorance, if you want to make a living you have to bow and scrabe for the Nigerians, aso. aso.

No matter how well educated and friendly the Sweedes is by nature, I would bet that apart from the Sweedes that got rich because of the Nigerians the rest would pretty soon start to feel some sort of anomosity and anger toward the Nigerians.

I expect the Thais to treat me politely, as i treat them, and i expect that some Thais know that my being in Thailand is the basis of their income, but i do not expect the Thais to like me, I frankly think that would be asking to much in the present situation.

Regards,

Edited April 8, 2007 by larvidchr

[qwertz]

Despite all the "let's suppose" scenarios posted up to now there is only one important underlying factor relevant to expats anywhere: money makes the world go round. As long as you can pay your way and/or make a productive contribution you will always be welcomed or at least tolerated somewhere. If that somewhere is better than the place you left, all well and good but there are very few places left in the world that will accept people who cannot pull their weight and feed themselves.

[jinjok]

gwertz: so youve already filed your gold card application i suppose?

everyone/everything have limits relative to value. for too long many guys (and couples) have seen thailand as cheap and forked the cash over accordingly. now there are issues: economy, housing, visa renewel...

thailand - bait and switch. could you imagine if you quit your job, sold your home and moved to thailand based on their offering of visa for home/property of 3 million. to turn round and revoke it -

[qwertz]

gwertz: so youve already filed your gold card application i suppose?

everyone/everything have limits relative to value. for too long many guys (and couples) have seen thailand as cheap and forked the cash over accordingly. now there are issues: economy, housing, visa renewel...

thailand - bait and switch. could you imagine if you quit your job, sold your home and moved to thailand based on their offering of visa for home/property of 3 million. to turn round and revoke it -

Had one for years, JJ. And since age 14 I've never depended on anyone to make my life easier. I've been an expat and paid my dues for more than half my life and I still wouldn't count on anyone's promises, I have a cellar full of them which I can't cash in. I gave LOS a try some years ago but I had the advantage of not expecting much so I wasn't surprised or disappointed in the outcome. It's still one of my favourite holiday destinations, although I doubt that I'll retire there for most of the reasons you and others have quoted. File me under paying customers.

[Felt 35]

Try this just for fun, this is Sweeden suddenly being swamped by black Nigerians, who with their newfound oilwealth desides that Sweeden is the place to be, allmost all the pretty tall blonde girls turn their backs on the Sweedish men, all the beuatifull houses is being sold to Nigerians, the property prices get so high that the majority of Sweedes themselfes cant afford to invest in a home, the city centers change with lots of shops catering exclusivly for Nigerians, the Sweedish costums and culture is being trampeld on, not of malice but mostly by the Nigerians ignorance, if you want to make a living you have to bow and scrabe for the Nigerians, aso. aso.

I agree.

However it is one magnificent difference. The Swedes help this people “as in the example the Nigerians” from the first minute they stand on Swedish earth.

They give them money for basic living until they are able to make money, education, help them to find jobs, help them to get integrated in the Swedish society and help them with family reunion.

IMO as the Swedes really have acted as a helpful hosts, they will have a real reason to turn against their new citizens when as the situation turns negative for the Swedes themselves, as in the post above. However the situation it Thailand is a very different story.

[Pepe']

Try this just for fun, this is Sweeden suddenly being swamped by black Nigerians, who with their newfound oilwealth desides that Sweeden is the place to be, allmost all the pretty tall blonde girls turn their backs on the Sweedish men, all the beuatifull houses is being sold to Nigerians, the property prices get so high that the majority of Sweedes themselfes cant afford to invest in a home, the city centers change with lots of shops catering exclusivly for Nigerians, the Sweedish costums and culture is being trampeld on, not of malice but mostly by the Nigerians ignorance, if you want to make a living you have to bow and scrabe for the Nigerians, aso. aso.

I agree.

However it is one magnificent difference. The Swedes help this people “as in the example the Nigerians” from the first minute they stand on Swedish earth.

They give them money for basic living until they are able to make money, education, help them to find jobs, help them to get integrated in the Swedish society and help them with family reunion.

IMO as the Swedes really have acted as a helpful hosts, they will have a real reason to turn against their new citizens when as the situation turns negative for the Swedes themselves, as in the post above. However the situation it Thailand is a very different story.

-------------------------

Ah, the truth again. It is a _itch.

This could become a regular thing here.

Good job qwertz, well said...

[bingobongo]

sorry to say, but Thailand is no longer the land of rainbows and lollipops, businesses moving to Vietnam........

PLASTICS INDUSTRY

Sharp rise in bad debt of smaller firms

Price rises, economy and politics to blame; many look to set up in VN because of baht

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/04/09...ss_30031435.php

[btate]

Interesting fact: 49% of Thai labor force is agriculture.

Recent headlines:

Farmers protest to gov't to bail them out of "NON agro debt"

Price of hogs at slaughter 36 -39 baht per kilo; price to raise... 42 baht

Several hundred thoushand Rai of 2nd crop rice lost; oops poor planning for drought

Drought in NE

Hail and storms destroy.... (two cases in rural communities)

Southern rubber cutters slain.....

And on and on. As an agricultural economy there are definitely hard times ahead.

Bt

[OlRedEyes]

Try this just for fun, (etc)

If space travel was more advanced, surely the price of shark fin soup would be lower in Ghana?

You're right of course. It's much more fun trying to figure how to respond to an argument that doesn't compare apples to oranges, but rather attempts to compare durian with haggis.

[QualityTouristNumberOne]

Jasreeve17 and others seem to have a point that 'business' is slowing down and that's worrying.

The question remains....why, how come....

I suppose there is not 1 single reason but a combination of several reasons.

The odd thing is that there are also signs that it is difficult to book a ticket TO Thailand or trouble with booking the return-flight. It could be however that fewer planes are flying to LOS and that those which are, are fully booked.

Let's wait and see.

LaoPo

Well said Lao po,but for one thing,its not flight being fully booked that is making it hard to get here...

One of my friends in Ireland is a genuine "Jai Dee" case,he owns an IT company,has a good bit of spare cash(and is generous,but luckily not stupid),and comes to Thailand for a 2 week holiday at irregular,short intervals(depending on work commitments) and drops easily 10-15 thousand euro's a time...he's not a whorechaser either,the money goes on top restaurants,Hotels,and general tourism...

He was told he "wasnt guaranteed entry to Thailand" by his travel agent when he went to book his last trip(yes,I know,he COULD get a tourist visa,but realistically,why the <deleted> should he?"),

and as a result he has written Thailand off completely.

By the way,2 months ago I used up my last tourist visa of 3 back to backs I got at home,and have been too busy to take a trip to a neighbouring country to twiddle my thumbs for 3 days,so my last two visa's have been 30 day border runs,and I have spent roughly 100,000 euro's in Thailand in the last year...

so not only "Ghetto living,low income Farangs" are affected by the new rules.

From speaking to people at home,in several other countries(a lot of wealthy folk deciding to stay away),AND business owners in Bkk(one of whom has had to sell a previously premium business) over the last while,I can firmly assure you that this policy IS turning around to bite this country on the ass,which is a shame as policy of fervent Xenophobia is not exactly the best way to run a country that depends on tourism for 6% of its GDP.