Thailand Is Down...

[PanzerJohn]

As far as tourism from places like the UK is concerned, I would say this.

The average Brit probably books his holiday in the sun at least 6 months in advance, and relies on travel brochures, travel agents, travel articles in magazines and newspapers, and the all important TV holiday programmes to make his choice. Price , of course is also big factor.

Now I have no idea to what extent the negative press about Thailand is seepoing to the outside world, but my guess is that not a great deal has yet. But when it does, it won't take long to get up a head of steam. It will only take a couple of negative pieces in the travel journals, and something uncomplimentary on one of the travel shows and the ball will begin to roll. Can you imagine a Tv travel slot where the presenter complains about the debauchery and sex industry in Pattaya, the dual pricing at National parks, and maybe the increasing anti - foreigner sentiment in the country. This is to say nothing of sensationalist stuff getting into the general news, like coups and tanks on the street, the killings in the South, the murders of tourists and so on.

All these things can be explained away till the cows come home - but it is the perception that counts. Not too long ago, Thailand with it's lovely, kind, smiling welcoming people, was one of the most coveted destinations for UK holidaymakers. Not sure that is true any more, and the word will soon be out, if it's not already.

Once booking's start to tail off a little, the tour companies will look elsewhere to find holidays to sell, and Thailand will start to feel a definite chill.

P.S. I'm not, and never have been in the travel industry, and the forgoing is purely my opinion. Maybe the professionals out there would like to comment, and shoot me down in flames if I am wrong?

I previously mentioned I was having dinner this weekend with an old friend from the UK who heads up one of the Big Three Far East travel agents...his 'professional' comments follow:

Basically, his company is up 6-7% on last years numbers and he is very happy, as are Thailand's hoteliers (he visits once a year to secure contracts with 40+ 4-5 star hotels). This year he has holiday bookings in excess of 11,000 passengers, so I think his comments are broad enough to form an opinion!

His company's demographics are 45+ year old 'professionals' (business owners, accountants, solicitors etc) who bring their family to Thailand and stay an average of 14 days.

He wondered what the hel_l I was talking about when I mentioned this thread!

I hope this helps?

Most of these "quality" tourist families tend to stay in the up upmarket resorts and spend most of their time and money on-site, only venturing out for the odd visit to specific attractions. They certainly don't spread their money around the street vendors,bars,local eateries etc apart from maybe buying the odd trinket.

[bingobongo]

even quality tourists are falling......

Japanese tourists drop on security fears, baht

CHATRUDEE THEPARAT

Concerns about safety and the ongoing appreciation of the baht have taken a toll on tourism, with Japanese arrivals to Thailand dropping by 10% year-on-year in the first three months of 2007.

''Normally, the annual growth of Japanese tourist arrivals to Thailand is about 8-10%. If the downward trend continues until the end of the year, we're afraid that Japanese arrivals will not reach the number we achieved last year,'' said Anake Srishevachart, president of the Thai-Japan Tourism Association, representing inbound travel providers.

Last year, Japanese tourist arrivals totalled 1.3 million, a rise from 1.1 million in 2005.

Although the figure for the first three months of 2007 is not yet official, Japanese tourist arrivals at Suvarnabhumi Airport were reported down by 7.93% to 95,759 from 100,028 at the same period last year.

Mr Anake attributed the drop to a lack of confidence in Thailand's safety measures, growing unrest in the South and fears of further incidents in Bangkok such as the Dec 31 bombings.

Many charter flights such as large tour, incentive and student groups had been cancelled, with most deciding to visit other countries such as China and Vietnam.

Mr Anake said the baht's appreciation had also played a key role by increasing the cost of visiting Thailand. The baht recently reached a high of 28 against 100 yen and now is trading around 29.5, compared with 38 in the first two months of last year.

To encourage Japanese tourists to visit Thailand, authorities are being urged to request co-operation from major Japanese tour operators to help reassure potential travellers.

Mr Anake said the private sector should also focus on attracting tourists from Eastern Europe, the Middle East and India.

Thai authorities are scheduled to visit Japan from today until Friday to promote trade, investment and tourism as part of the celebration of the the 120th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Japan and Thailand.

Seminars on trade, investment and tourism will be held in Tokyo and Osaka.

According to Phornsiri Manoharn, the governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, the Japanese and Thai governments have agreed to designate 2007 as the Thailand-Japan Tourism Exchange Year. Many activities will be staged to underline the relationship between the two countries.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/02Apr2007_biz31.php

Edited April 1, 2007 by bingobongo

[Scott]

For what it's worth, about a month ago, the place I work at advertised for employees--foreigners. In general we are swamped with maybe a hundred or so applications from western foreigners and well in excess of 200-300 Filipinos for these adds.

This year, we received maybe 30 applications from foreigners and had around 50 Filipino applicants. This number is way down from normal.

On the upside, we had a much higher rate of qualified applicants--those meeting the qualifications that we requested than in the past.

I don't necessarily want to interpret the meaning of this, but thought I would add my 2 cents.

[Heng]

Most of these "quality" tourist families tend to stay in the up upmarket resorts and spend most of their time and money on-site, only venturing out for the odd visit to specific attractions. They certainly don't spread their money around the street vendors,bars,local eateries etc apart from maybe buying the odd trinket.

This sounds like a case of "my Baht/Dollar/Yen is the most important to the local economy." I've had some of a particular group of my Korean and farang expat friends try to make the same argument that local exporters aren't really contributing to the Thai economy because it doesn't really "help people" if you don't eat streetside and spend money in open air markets instead of purchasing real estate and that keeping profits offshore should be criminalized. Keep in mind that these are mostly friendly drunken arguments, dinner talk. And then it would often degrade to another tangent that if you didn't find your girl in a gogo bar (like some of these guys have), instead of Forte or the Piano (again, some of them have as well; some have both), you also weren't really helping the local economy because most of the funds were going to the "rich" club owners. In the end, it was clear that a lot of folks simply want to believe that where they were spending their money was the most important (along the lines of the... "If I leave/If we all leave, this place is over" line of thinking that we see on these boards all the time).

[jasreeve17]

I'm following this thread the whole day and I am amazed how much bashing the OP had to suffer! Read the post again, he just stated that he went to some tourist places and noticed that there were far less people than usual. Then he asked the question whether it was only him or if others did a similar observation - a quasi-survey so to say.

For fairness....those tourist places arerather expat places, but in the end of the day...where are the customers?

Thanks for your support Raro.

I think it's true that I made a light observation, after a night of drinking, and posted my thoughts. A bit of aggressive posting was made by some... I suggest that it says more about them in general than they realise.

I used to post like that, but I'm trying to be a bit more positive and just ignore the threads that I don't like.

On the flip side, I'm always happy to hear peoples viewpoints., and the thread has offered mixed views, which is great.

Thanks, Jason

[Furbie]

I have avoided posting until now as the point of the main post was fairly limited to his personal observations in a small part of the ex-pat/tourist sector of BKK, which I happen to agree with.

However, many have brought up the current economic/business climate, and have claimed that things are moving along swimmingly or at worst Thailand is facing a minor set back, which just amazes me. I am in no way shape or form a Thailand basher, I live here, get paid in baht and spend nearly 90% of my income locally. I have a very direct stake in the fate of the economy, including the business sector in Bangkok, and by extension the country at large. However, you would have to have on a set of blinders on bigger than your head not to realize Thailand is in trouble.

Whether you believe that trouble is perception vs. reality, the fault of the current or previous government or both, increased competition from regional competitors (China and Vietnam chiefly amongst these), a general feeling of anti-western feeling, or a combination of all of the above, the facts are overwhelming that the economy is in for a rough time.

Others have clearly posted the government's own numbers, and the economic forecast for the rest of the year. The news is not good. By contrast, regional competitors are doing very well. Ask yourself why that is.

[JR Texas]

I have avoided posting until now as the point of the main post was fairly limited to his personal observations in a small part of the ex-pat/tourist sector of BKK, which I happen to agree with.

However, many have brought up the current economic/business climate, and have claimed that things are moving along swimmingly or at worst Thailand is facing a minor set back, which just amazes me. I am in no way shape or form a Thailand basher, I live here, get paid in baht and spend nearly 90% of my income locally. I have a very direct stake in the fate of the economy, including the business sector in Bangkok, and by extension the country at large. However, you would have to have on a set of blinders on bigger than your head not to realize Thailand is in trouble.

Whether you believe that trouble is perception vs. reality, the fault of the current or previous government or both, increased competition from regional competitors (China and Vietnam chiefly amongst these), a general feeling of anti-western feeling, or a combination of all of the above, the facts are overwhelming that the economy is in for a rough time.

Others have clearly posted the government's own numbers, and the economic forecast for the rest of the year. The news is not good. By contrast, regional competitors are doing very well. Ask yourself why that is.

JR Texas: I agree with you. Just would like to add that perception is reality and perception is often distorted by personal circumstances. Those that can't see the decline fall into three categories that I mentioned earlier. They can't afford to accept it because it is too painful--financially and psychologically. So, see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil and there will be no evil. It is the type of thinking that comes from watching FOX news......it prevents positive change as nobody speaks out. Worse, they start thinking that people who "speak out" are misfits, or down on their luck, or bashers, or anything but concerned and freethinking people. I hope more people speak out and I hope positive change results from it.

[cclub75]

Whether you believe that trouble is perception vs. reality, the fault of the current or previous government or both, increased competition from regional competitors (China and Vietnam chiefly amongst these), a general feeling of anti-western feeling, or a combination of all of the above, the facts are overwhelming that the economy is in for a rough time.

Others have clearly posted the government's own numbers, and the economic forecast for the rest of the year. The news is not good. By contrast, regional competitors are doing very well. Ask yourself why that is.

I totally agree.

People have to be blind to not see the black clouds over our heads...

Probably the worst, and most understated, is the political situation, with the ... succession, that is still a small dot on the horizon. But growing at steady pace.

I'm sure that more and more people start to understand that september coup was no about Thaksin The Crook, but rather a way to secure or prepare... some future political events that will occur in Thailand... Anyway.

As usual, the thai propaganda relies heavily on the magic of "whisfull thinking". Basically, it's going like this : "elections will solve problems. We will have elections end of 2007. So our problems will be solved".

Very few people dare to ask :

-are you sure that the new constitution will pass the referendum smoothly ?

-do you believe that the 15 millions who voted for TRT ONE YEAR AGO (i'm sure we forgot that Thailand has had general elections) are feeling better now, that their situation has improved, and that they will happily vote for our dear generals ?

A country can't really go forward with such uncertainty and instability.

Edited April 6, 2007 by cclub75

[Farma]

A number of Thai friends running businesses upcountry have mentioned a downturn in sales recently in their conversations. Their business dealings are mainly with the farming community and other Thais in an area not associated with tourism.

Taking into account the annual low season where the farmers have sold their rice, spent their money and prepare for the rice planting season, this years sales are noticeably lower than past couple of years.

They’ve noticed a steady trend of falling sales over the past year or more. In their opinion the increased fuel costs last year started the downward trend. The cost of goods has started to rise adding to living costs and forcing their mainly farming community customers to tighten their belts even more.

While not mentioning the recent changes on the political and monetary scene, they all expressed concerns about the downturn in sales and the possible implications it will have on their businesses.

[LaoPo]

A number of Thai friends running businesses upcountry have mentioned a downturn in sales recently in their conversations. Their business dealings are mainly with the farming community and other Thais in an area not associated with tourism.

Taking into account the annual low season where the farmers have sold their rice, spent their money and prepare for the rice planting season, this years sales are noticeably lower than past couple of years.

They’ve noticed a steady trend of falling sales over the past year or more. In their opinion the increased fuel costs last year started the downward trend. The cost of goods has started to rise adding to living costs and forcing their mainly farming community customers to tighten their belts even more.

While not mentioning the recent changes on the political and monetary scene, they all expressed concerns about the downturn in sales and the possible implications it will have on their businesses.

I feel for those (poor) people because they suffer the most.

What a lot of people don't realize is the following:

GDP - composition by sector:

agriculture: 10%

industry: 44.9%

services: 45.2% (2006 est.)

BUT:

Labor force - by occupation:

agriculture: 49%

industry: 14%

services: 37% (2000 est.)

That means that 49% of the Thai Labor Force -in Agriculture- (farmers) produces a 'mere' 10% of the GDP and that's VERY worrying !

If that trend continues it will end up in millions of jobless agriculture workers and farmers causing enormous problems in rural Thailand..... but at the same time it will have effects on the Labor Force in the -service industry- (including tourism) AND Labor Force in the Thai Industry!

and also:

Just 14% of the Thai Labor Force works in the industry and produces almost 45% of the GDP

Data from:

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbo...os/th.html#Econ

LaoPo

[noungning]

i've talked to my bf and he's a taxi driver. [please don't tackle me if there is any disliking towards any taxi driver] he's told me it's been really slow. as i would have no idea because i live here in the states. but i've heard him say this for the past couple of months, there'd be odd days that people would come out. but like someone mentioned, he did say it tends to get quiet because people saves up for songklarn.

i'll be heading there and hoping it will still be just as lively as it was last year

Not saying that it ISN'T actually slower - but I have NEVER had a taxi driver tell me anyting other than "it's really slow" when I ask them how it is going - and I do ask quite often regardless of the economic situation in LOS.

Who would try to tackle you - even if they were to dislike taxi drivers

lol, i suppose u are right, there are only about 3000 taxi's roaming the same area on and on to fight for business!

my bf drives from 4pm-5am, he usually sees the night crowd most of the time. but i don't suppose he's lying to me that it's been slower, noticeable from the profit he makes per night which is little to none from these past couple of months.

lol the tackling was a joke lol

edit : grammar

Edited April 6, 2007 by noungning

[highchol]

even quality tourists are falling......

Japanese tourists drop on security fears, baht

CHATRUDEE THEPARAT

Concerns about safety and the ongoing appreciation of the baht have taken a toll on tourism, with Japanese arrivals to Thailand dropping by 10% year-on-year in the first three months of 2007.

''Normally, the annual growth of Japanese tourist arrivals to Thailand is about 8-10%. If the downward trend continues until the end of the year, we're afraid that Japanese arrivals will not reach the number we achieved last year,'' said Anake Srishevachart, president of the Thai-Japan Tourism Association, representing inbound travel providers.

Last year, Japanese tourist arrivals totalled 1.3 million, a rise from 1.1 million in 2005.

Although the figure for the first three months of 2007 is not yet official, Japanese tourist arrivals at Suvarnabhumi Airport were reported down by 7.93% to 95,759 from 100,028 at the same period last year.

Mr Anake attributed the drop to a lack of confidence in Thailand's safety measures, growing unrest in the South and fears of further incidents in Bangkok such as the Dec 31 bombings.

Many charter flights such as large tour, incentive and student groups had been cancelled, with most deciding to visit other countries such as China and Vietnam.

Mr Anake said the baht's appreciation had also played a key role by increasing the cost of visiting Thailand. The baht recently reached a high of 28 against 100 yen and now is trading around 29.5, compared with 38 in the first two months of last year.

To encourage Japanese tourists to visit Thailand, authorities are being urged to request co-operation from major Japanese tour operators to help reassure potential travellers.

Mr Anake said the private sector should also focus on attracting tourists from Eastern Europe, the Middle East and India.

Thai authorities are scheduled to visit Japan from today until Friday to promote trade, investment and tourism as part of the celebration of the the 120th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Japan and Thailand.

Seminars on trade, investment and tourism will be held in Tokyo and Osaka.

According to Phornsiri Manoharn, the governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, the Japanese and Thai governments have agreed to designate 2007 as the Thailand-Japan Tourism Exchange Year. Many activities will be staged to underline the relationship between the two countries.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/02Apr2007_biz31.php

From the above quote

"Although the figure for the first three months of 2007 is not yet official, Japanese tourist arrivals at Suvarnabhumi Airport were reported down by 7.93% to 95,759 from 100,028 at the same period last year. "

Does anyone know if these figures have become " official " or not?

Must be some abacus they have if so.

[Travel2003]

Greetings

First, thumbs up to the one that started this thread.

Wonder if you expected this impact.

Absolutely wonderful reading.

Great entertainment and even educating as well.

Ok, here is my contribution.

I am "allowed" to go out 2-3 times a week, as my job makes me feel like I'm "grounded" for 3-4 months at the time. This has been the pattern for about 7 years now.

There is no doubt in my mind that the entertaining venues as beer bars, pool bars, pubs, discos, night clubs, and even the more "naughty" areas are less busy these days.

Why, I have no idea. Is this not the beginning of the low season for tourism? I never actually thought too much about this, but I think I read that somewhere.

I can see the word tourist has been defined here.

What is a tourist? Is that not anyone who comes to a place for a short while just to see or experience something else?

I guess one of you will look it up for me.

Thnx.

:-)

By the way, how can one estimate what the so called "sex tourists" spend compare to the other tourists?

In my experience, people tend to spend more money in bars (all kinds) then in the regular "must see" tourist sites.

Tourists very often (but not always) buy cheaper things to bring home, but do not care when it comes to entertainment.

This goes for back home as well.

And by the way, we do not know how many of the "regular tourists" that also spend money for the more nightly tourist activities.

But one thing is for sure, entertainment venues in Bangkok are not as busy as I remember they can be.

Why, I do not know.

I just state a fact.

All the best

Sailor

[bingobongo]

this will do wonders for the country...........

TRT convinced another coup on the way

Suthin Klangsaeng, the party's caretaker spokesman, said his team strongly believed another coup was on the cards, citing three main indicators.

The first is the growing conflict between the government and the Council for National Security (CNS) and the political movement of some groups, especially the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

Second, some media have been supporting or trying to create conditions - by citing recent protests - that make another coup necessary.

Third, there have been attempts to change the prime minister and topple the government.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/04/07...cs_30031325.php

Edited April 6, 2007 by bingobongo

[ThaiGoon]

this will do wonders for the country...........

TRT convinced another coup on the way

Suthin Klangsaeng, the party's caretaker spokesman, said his team strongly believed another coup was on the cards, citing three main indicators.

The first is the growing conflict between the government and the Council for National Security (CNS) and the political movement of some groups, especially the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

Second, some media have been supporting or trying to create conditions - by citing recent protests - that make another coup necessary.

Third, there have been attempts to change the prime minister and topple the government.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/04/07...cs_30031325.php

I'm sure TRT must be convinced that Thanksin will come back and win the election later this year as well. Anyway, even if this information is true, I think it's really nice of Suthin to give the current gov't and the CNS a heads up about what's brewing. They might have to send him a thankyou letter.

[jasreeve17]

sy to pick up on my writing errors - but they are talking <deleted>.

Thailand is down, and it'snot being compensated for by the Chinese / Koreans.

I would listen to Mid's ....

[Bruce1]

Its an interesting thread which confirms my observations. Thai business friends, who don't deal much with foreigners, are complaining to me that their business is down. One has had to buy a quite different business to stay afloat.

China and India are now the favoured sites for multinationals and Thailand is slowly losing investment. Those decisions are made long term so the impact is only slowly becoming evident.

This government's handling of investment, business and visa rules has only given investors and other foreigners more reasons to look elsewhere. The government's moralism is counter-productive because it is hurting Thais. They really appear to be anti-business, which is what you would expect of generals I suppose.

I know nothing about sex tourism so can't comment on that. I'd love to see some figures on backpacker-type arrivals because they're the people who spend the most on tours etc so that spending is very important to Thai small business people. Several friends have come to visit us and backpacked about and loved it and they're definitely not sex tourists.

Costs are also rising.

Structurally, Thailad appears to have failed to shift enough of the rural poor into viable urban jobs, which has left almost half the population dependent on low income agriculture, and vulnerable to downturns. If the economy was healthy it wouldn't be necessary for the govt to subsidise the rural poor. Thaksin's TRT tapped rural discontent to win power; don't forget, no matter what you think of Thaksin, that discontent he tapped for his own purposes was genuine. People feel betrayed and abandoned.

Their only route to the middle class is through the education system and its failing many, though the best students make it, but what about the average students - what's their future?

Some people on here seem so determined to justify their decisions to live here that they're ignoring the warning signs. Ask yourself why Thailand now has one of the lowest growth rates in Asia and what effect that is having?

How long will it be before the Thai authorities start to panic?

[LaoPo]

Its an interesting thread which confirms my observations. Thai business friends, who don't deal much with foreigners, are complaining to me that their business is down. One has had to buy a quite different business to stay afloat.

China and India are now the favoured sites for multinationals and Thailand is slowly losing investment. Those decisions are made long term so the impact is only slowly becoming evident.

This government's handling of investment, business and visa rules has only given investors and other foreigners more reasons to look elsewhere. The government's moralism is counter-productive because it is hurting Thais. They really appear to be anti-business, which is what you would expect of generals I suppose.

I know nothing about sex tourism so can't comment on that. I'd love to see some figures on backpacker-type arrivals because they're the people who spend the most on tours etc so that spending is very important to Thai small business people. Several friends have come to visit us and backpacked about and loved it and they're definitely not sex tourists.

Costs are also rising.

Structurally, Thailad appears to have failed to shift enough of the rural poor into viable urban jobs, which has left almost half the population dependent on low income agriculture, and vulnerable to downturns. If the economy was healthy it wouldn't be necessary for the govt to subsidise the rural poor. Thaksin's TRT tapped rural discontent to win power; don't forget, no matter what you think of Thaksin, that discontent he tapped for his own purposes was genuine. People feel betrayed and abandoned.

Their only route to the middle class is through the education system and its failing many, though the best students make it, but what about the average students - what's their future?

Some people on here seem so determined to justify their decisions to live here that they're ignoring the warning signs. Ask yourself why Thailand now has one of the lowest growth rates in Asia and what effect that is having?

How long will it be before the Thai authorities start to panic?

Well written, with sense, insight and intelligence.

As to your last sentence: It will take not too long (before Thai authorities start to panic).

But, this is Thailand and the 'rulers' will find some heads to roll...and continue the same old story. It's ALL about power and money and NOT about the wellfare of the Thai people, some 65 Million of them.

I find it very...very sad to see that some people miss to see the bigger point about Thailand, it's economy and future.

Most Thai & Farang just look into their own daily financial and economical situation and don't care about what's REALLY going on in the Asian region as well as the est of the World.....and, there's a LOT going on right now.

That's not so surprising because most Thai people are not educated enough to understand Asian-regional (and World-)economics, and Thai-Farang are mostly just interested in their own environment, family and economical (read: financial) situation and day-to-day 'enjoyment' of their lives.

There's, basically, nothing wrong with that but if one reads the many stories with complaints about new Laws, declining Growth, declining sales, declining imports, stricter Visa-rules etc. it's almost surprising that everything I read is about Thailand......not the Asian region or economics....

That's odd, because many forget that Thailand is just a -small- country in a much bigger Asian Region and is ABSOLUTELY NOT ABLE to survive WITHOUT the other countries and economies.

The protectionistic 'thinking' of the Thai rulers is a mere self-protectionistic thinking, not one for the well being of the Thai population.

LaoPo

[Bruce1]

I was thinking this morning that its sad to see such a lovely country drifting so aimlessly, with no apparent vision for the future. Unfortunately, I suspect this will continue, at least until the elections, whenever they're held (sooner the better).

Its obvious the current military-technocratic rulers have little or no idea of how to run a free enterprise democratic country and have resorted to suppressing all dissent to maintain their hold on power. This has created a political vacuum which is being filled by wild rumours about coups and other things. Unable to find the way of expressing their feelings, the people are muttering quietly amongst themselves, which is causing a buildup of steam which could explode if not allowed to be vented in a safe manner.

I suspect it may take royal intervention to make a difference and I sincerely hope that happens. What I was thinking could be necessary is the following:

1. HM announces the elections will be held on a certain date and directs all concerned to do everything possible to make it happen, including the new constitution.

2. HM makes some statements about his vision for the future of Thailand, which I'm sure based on his past statements would include a free, democratic and law-abiding situation, to give the people some hope for the future.

3. HM announces the abolition of all restrictions on free speech and calls for a vigorous public debate about the way forward for Thailand. Specifically, I hope he would call for a genuine search for ways to help the poor to help themselves into the middle class, including a major upgrade of education, particularly technical education to produce a lot more trades people. Also needed is a major simplification of business regulations to encourage more people, including foreigners, to start businesses. And the public service needs to be streamlined and made more accountable for failures to perform.

4. HM cautions the military to stay out of politics and confine itself to the preservation of public safety, under the direction of the caretaker government.

Who am I, a foreigner, to be telling Thais how to run their country? Nobody, except someone with real Thai friends and who has come to love the country and wish the best for it. Ultimately, of course, its up to the Thais to resolve this in their own way. I hope they do it soon.

[Prakanong]

"I'd love to see some figures on backpacker-type arrivals because they're the people who spend the most on tours etc so that spending is very important to Thai small business people."

A Few Points

I think backpacker numbers are still high and maybe as high as they have ever been - the only evidence i have of this is anecdotal and reading various sites though.

I know the argument that they spend more as they spend more time but that is a bit of a fallacy - mine and a lot of people I know have or had a budget of 10-15k THB a day. A backpacker might average 1 k THB - he would have to stay up to 15 times longer in the country than myself or a lot of people I know - I accept we may have been outliers and my time incountry now is very limited but a lot of pals stil go often

I do accept the argument they often help local business's though but equally so do I - unless on business I never use the multi-national chains of hotels only locally owned ones.

Just as backpackers my money might be going to Thai elites who own the transport and hotels, resorts etc though.

[LivinLOS]

I read the first 1/2 or so of this thread but its much of a muchness..

The only evidence I could add is purely anecdotal.. At a recent Patong bar owners birthday I happened to be sat with a group of 4 other bar and tourist business owners, all long term expats all in business here for 4 or 5 years apiece..

Every single one of them was lamenting that here at the end of high season thier takings / hih season profits are dramatically down.. Most said 25 - 30% while one claimed his high season profits down 50%.. At the same time rents were rising, key money leases were skyrocketing and costs and ease of doing business were all looking bad.

Each one of them also said that numbers seem up.. Theres more people on the streets over high season but the climate had changed from big spenders to penny pinchers and couples.

It is to be noted that these were all involved in businesses in and around Patong which is a nightlife area.. So perhaps the money is being spread into areas like Kata / Karon / Surin.. Perhaps its a redistribution of business rather than a downturn ?? Theres also the question of oversupply and landlord greed, the fact that theres more rooms around narrows the margins for operators, the greater fool theory of bar sales allows 2 mil plus key money on bars that struggle to take 1 - 2k per day..

Living in such a tourist / expat dominated Island and area I tend to see tourism and much more of a dominant industry than people would in other parts of the country.. Direct foreign exchange provides so much more for Thailand Inc than thai on thai business.

[Aiba]

Less tourist ,less bar,less prostitutes that's greater not down

[Ulysses G.]

Less tourist ,less bar,less prostitutes that's greater not down

Puritans have a point of view too!

[LivinLOS]

Less tourist ,less bar,less prostitutes that's greater not down

Depends on who your talking too...

I think the wealth redistrubtion effect from nightlife areas to rural poor is a large economic driver in many regions.. Its not unsusual for a Lek or a Nid to be contributing more to the families bottom line than Khun Paw's rice farming..

Easy for moralists to say it shouldnt exist but until viable economic alternatives exist then someone has to go hungry for that moral stand.

[Prakanong]

Less tourist ,less bar,less prostitutes that's greater not down

Depends on who your talking too...

I think the wealth redistrubtion effect from nightlife areas to rural poor is a large economic driver in many regions.. Its not unsusual for a Lek or a Nid to be contributing more to the families bottom line than Khun Paw's rice farming..

Easy for moralists to say it shouldnt exist but until viable economic alternatives exist then someone has to go hungry for that moral stand.

Exactly - get rid of that almost cashless subsistence farming many Thai's do and maybe the supply to the bar's etc will dry up.

I am sure they and their families would rather they were doing something else - of course it would not eradicate it just as you can find prostitution in wealthy economies but viable alternatives would be a start to reducing it dramatically.

[Mid]

Less tourist ,less bar,less prostitutes that's greater not down

[Jai Dee]

I have deleted a couple of posts from this thread.

Speculation and commenting about HRH the King is not permitted of the forum.

From the Forum Rules:

No disrespect of the King of Thailand or The Thai Royal Family! Discussion of topics concerning the King or other current or deceased members of the Thai Royal Family is forbidden.

[likewise]

I certainly am not seeing it ... business seems to be very strong everywhere I go. The few folks that can't manage to scrape together a few $$'s to get a real visa aren't going to be missed that badly.

Wrong mate! I am 35 years old, no need to work a single day in my life ever again, yet cannot get a long term visa since I have no intention of getting married, don't want to start a business and too young to retire according to Thai law! I spend an average of 800.000 baht per year and know lots of people in my situation. Sooner or later they will feel the consequences of their silly visa rules. But no worries though, I'll be happy to spend my money elsewhere!

[opebo]

Hua Hin is booming! Obviously not everyone comes to Thailand for sex tourism, or they obviously wouldn't come here...

Hua Hin is full of prostitutes, mdeland. I would say a few hundred total - there are several sois of bars, a Lolitas, and at least a couple of big overpriced brothel type places for the rich Thais.

[zzdocxx]

For what it's worth, about a month ago, the place I work at advertised for employees--foreigners. In general we are swamped with maybe a hundred or so applications from western foreigners and well in excess of 200-300 Filipinos for these adds.

This year, we received maybe 30 applications from foreigners and had around 50 Filipino applicants. This number is way down from normal.

On the upside, we had a much higher rate of qualified applicants--those meeting the qualifications that we requested than in the past.

I don't necessarily want to interpret the meaning of this, but thought I would add my 2 cents.

Just curious about what types of jobs, etc.? (Since I see posts elsewhere asking what kind of employment they can get in Thailand.)