Thailand Is Down...

[blizzard]

yayoi the fine eatery near sizzlers had 20% of its tables occupied. at 6pm a couple months ago you couldnt get a table. for that matter sizzlers also was quite empty. its always busy at 6pm or was.

Edited April 14, 2007 by blizzard

[jasreeve17]

anyone notice that in midday you can actually get a seat on the skytrain. or that today mbk looks like a ghosttown. does everyone go to their village for songkran.

I was at MBK about 30 minutes ago. I drove myself today, and the first available parking space was on the 5th floor. Hopefully the owners of the cars on the first 4 1/2 floors weren't all ghosts.

Not ghosts, but they had ghosted to the airport.

So disgusted were they with the downturn, ney, the complete collapse of the economic situation here that they parked their cars at MBK and took the direct shuttle bus to the airport.

Some, didn't even do that, they raced to the 10th floor and jumped off - you'll see a huge pile of bodies next to National Stadium.

Drove yourself Heng? Give your driving serf the day off, did you?

[qualtrough]

OK, looks like the consensus is that Thailand is 'down' and it is going to get worse. Are there any other forum members who look forward to that, or am I the only one? To me it means less crowding, fewer cars on the road, better deals on accomodations, fewer whining (whinging) farangs, and so on.

[jumnien]

Of course, if Thailand is "down" that is very good for those of us who live here and unfortunately word will continue to get out and more will come and Thailand will no longer be "down". The rate of change in Thailand in the last 10 years that I have been here is nothing less than stunning. Any slowdown is not such a bad thing in my opinion.

[Begbie]

Pattaya is very, very, quiet.

I'd hate to have a business there at the moment.

[Mid]

obvious who the businessmen are ...................................................

[stumonster]

Rattanakosin Island is only Thailand's religious and cultural core, to which both Thai and tourists come from all over the world--perhaps thousands every day of the week. The birthplace of Bangkok.

eh ? Koh Kret ?

I know of one large international investment that was seriously looking at building a shipyard in the SE which has decided on Vietnam instead. How many others would have done similar ?

and if Industry is 40 odd percent of Thailands GDP , this should be worrying

[Heng]

anyone notice that in midday you can actually get a seat on the skytrain. or that today mbk looks like a ghosttown. does everyone go to their village for songkran.

I was at MBK about 30 minutes ago. I drove myself today, and the first available parking space was on the 5th floor. Hopefully the owners of the cars on the first 4 1/2 floors weren't all ghosts.

Not ghosts, but they had ghosted to the airport.

So disgusted were they with the downturn, ney, the complete collapse of the economic situation here that they parked their cars at MBK and took the direct shuttle bus to the airport.

Some, didn't even do that, they raced to the 10th floor and jumped off - you'll see a huge pile of bodies next to National Stadium.

Drove yourself Heng? Give your driving serf the day off, did you?

Actually no, it was rather crowded inside the shopping center as well.

And as for days off... yes, I allow my serfs 300 liters of tap water and a couple of plastic cups to celebrate Songkran each year... and sometimes I just enjoy driving myself. I sometimes also tie my own shoes. Keeps me down to earth.

[qualtrough]

obvious who the businessmen are ...................................................

If aimed at my post which said I wouldn't mind Thailand being 'down'---then not so obvious. I run a business here--I source here and sell overseas. A down market should bring even better prices and possibly a weaker baht, a couple of benefits in addition to those I listed in my previous post.

[Mid]

obvious who the businessmen are ...................................................

If aimed at my post which said I wouldn't mind Thailand being 'down'---then not so obvious. I run a business here--I source here and sell overseas. A down market should bring even better prices and possibly a weaker baht, a couple of benefits in addition to those I listed in my previous post.

appoligies ,

every cloud does have a silver lining ....................

[samran]

At sales meetings I often hear "Business is down, we only made 20% profit in the first quarter instead of 30%, the competition is killing us". If any fool dares to suggest that 20% profit is not negative, he's laughed out of the crisis meeting and will probably soon be demoted if not fired. Down means literally running at a loss and the Thai tourist industry will never do that; it's the other sectors that need to tighten up their acts. And I didn't quite understand the post claiming that half the farmers there are starving when Thailand is listed as the number one rice exporter. General opinion is down only because the economy there is subject to inept handling and the money is not reaching the sectors that need it most.

you'd hope that what is actually happening is that prices are becoming more competitive for consumers, and that competition is driving up levels of innovation and productivity.

As for the farmers, I've argued in the past that one of the reasons for the blunt currency controls was probably to protect their (meagre) incomes. They were/are Thaksin's peoples, so putting them more off side than need be was never going to be a first choice of the military government.

I actually think Thailand is at a point where it is reluctanly 'shifting gears' in terms of the economy it wants to be. It will take 20 years, but it needs to become more service orientated, and manufacturing needs to become more value add. And it needs to diversify.

If things are becoming tight for some, then maybe that is the incentive to do things a bit better/smarter. Time will tell.

[bingobongo]

Consumer confidence index continues to drop in March

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=28888

[blizzard]

more people get hurt when buznit is down rather than benefit from it. having said that i hope a certain state in usa goes into deep recession so i can buy some real property, you can actually make money buying property in usa as opposed to thailand.........lol.

[JR Texas]

more people get hurt when buznit is down rather than benefit from it. having said that i hope a certain state in usa goes into deep recession so i can buy some real property, you can actually make money buying property in usa as opposed to thailand.........lol.

JR Texas: Just returned from Pattaya-Jomtien. It was my first time there in 8 months (used to live there for many years). Is it down? Absolutely! Dirty streets....geriatric community of farangs on one end with the younger tattooed Neanderthalls on the other...bars virtually empty.

Nearly vacant condos and hotels (I am guess 5-10 percent occupancy) with large numbers of new ones being constructed.....vacant shells of new buildings under construction with no construction being done (can you say real estate crash?).

I talked with 10 shop owners at random....9 said business was terrible compared to business one year ago (yes, I point out it was the low season and that said it was a low low season).

Too many Russian tourists with families in tow. Not enough to sustain the local economy........no way.

My expats friends told me that it was getting worse, not better. Even the rich can't stay because of the crazy visa and business rules and regulations...retirees are finding it harder to show 65K per month when the average pension is much less than that in both Europe and USA.

Too much competition for dwindling tourists dollars..........small shop owners and guest houses are really getting hit. Just read in the Bangkok Post (April 12, 2007) that the real estate markets are way down in Samui, Pattaya and Phuket (in that order from worst to best).

People say the visa and business rules and regulations are not hurting Thailand........BS big time to that. There are places in Thailand that are heavily dependent on tourists, long and short stay.

The long stays (that kept things doing during the low season) are leaving or have left and the short stays are not enough in number to keep the ship afloat. The government has made a huge mistake. Of course, this is my view........one person......one perspective....others will disagree.

On the positive side......it is one place in Thailand where you can do and find almost anything you want to do and find. The place reminds me of a strange type of freak show........some people find that interesting. But it was much better in the past....too bad.

[jasreeve17]

JRTexas (I always imagine you a bit like JR in Dallas...) - thanks for your post explaining your little holiday, and your thoughts on the economic situation.

I agree with you that Thais (especially SME's, which are a huge part of Thailand) are really being hurt. On the back of their high borrowing / debt rates over the last few years it spells a huge problem.

Be prepared from the nest poster to refute everything that you (and logic) have seen.

[bingobongo]

no more land of rainbows and lollipops for the dreamers......

Amended Foreign Business Act may have negative impact, says KRC

Foreign investor concerns over Thailand's amended Foreign Business Act may affect confidence and carry a negative impact in long-term, according to a report issued by Kasikorn Research Centre.

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=28944

[bingobongo]

news keeps on coming....

Q1 RETAIL SALES

Sector expects a 4% slump

Consumers fear economic, political uncertainty

"The forecast drop indicates a dangerous sign for our country and the sector," said Thai Retailers' Association president Thanapon Tangkananan.

On average, retail sales have increased 9-10 per cent in recent years, double the growth in the gross domestic product. They recorded double-digit growth in last year's first quarter.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/04/16...ss_30031935.php

[bkkandrew]

Only a dimwit would try any argue that things are not crashing around our ears...

On my part, I cancelled March's order for export (normally $20K) and have negotiated an 18% discount on April so that the Thai supplier can ship what they are now desparate to sell...

[shochu]

I am sure someone who gives Billions to charity needs to sell a house to ride it out.

Keep reacting to the past, the same reason your engineers are having problems.

China seems to of upset the markets in asia and protectionist corrupt countries are now full of useless excuses.

Go back to outhouses and candles if you like, you seem to not remember the past to well,

where the poor was at your every whim that you could exploit. Not so easy now that there

is more choices than to be subservants and second class ( mia nois) to the priviledged corrupt.

Then again you probably had a sheltered life and had a means to education that 99% of

Thais did not have. Is this the type of living you are referring your engineers could afford in the past.

Lets all be thankful someone came for the advancement of the poor in Thailand because if they would of had to relie on the engineers and leaders of the past they would still be squating in rice fields or 3rd and 4th wife of a corrupt educated thai.

Good engineers who apply themselves and can think on their own and keep up with advancements are still in dire need and make alot of money. You didn't think that a piece of paper was a free ride did you.

Yeah the good old days!!! Right

Japan really needs thai engineers.

I don't understand your post - I hope you don't think I was knocking thailand. Quite the opposite.

In regards to Warren Buffet - yes he donated much money as did Gates - but why do you think that was. Well one explanation is that their worht is only paper and when, not if, the market crashes all their wealth will go with it. Hence, here they look like great humanitarians and will go down in history as major philantropists. But, what the news doesn't say is how they have been selling under the radar and have more than enough wealth amassed in real money - yes it exists. Besides giving money away is a good business move on the books too.

And where did they give their money too. An organization that promotes population reduction.

Oh, in case you didn't understand, I said his partner of - i think 17/18 years is moving/runiing to china.

I would like to see thaialnd get back to basics and think more internally as they have a great nation with a great culture and people. A nation can only achieve what its people have the capability to do. When I look at malaysia, which i have talked about before, i see some great workers, but they are being relegated to second class citizens. In thailand, i see a great workforce in the educated and hard working (not all, but still) people, particluarly in the urban areas. The thais have accepted other people - chinese - and allow them to be on par with them - and this thinking and the hard work it can produce is one reason i have high hopes for thailand and their country.

We are well on the way to a two class society whether we like it or not. Back to the days of the landowners and serfs - or more appropriately refered to by them as sheeple. Except now the landowners are huge corporations. We are in the middle of the greatest wealth tranfer from west to east and from everyone to the ruling class.

Mr. Dave, and yes gold is great. I managed to get in at the bottom and I think of it as a way of beating inflation, and use it as a forced savings plan. It's nice to know people are on the same page!

[appleman_thai]

JRTexas (I always imagine you a bit like JR in Dallas...) - thanks for your post explaining your little holiday, and your thoughts on the economic situation.

I agree with you that Thais (especially SME's, which are a huge part of Thailand) are really being hurt. On the back of their high borrowing / debt rates over the last few years it spells a huge problem.

Be prepared from the nest poster to refute everything that you (and logic) have seen.

I fully agree that Thailand is in a slump. But it will come out of it!

What goes up must come down!

Its all about investing at the right time!

I think the new govt is not helping with building confidence - that is BOTH Thai and foreign confidence!

The sooner they sort out elections and put a proper govt in place, the sooner things can start to improve again!

During this "down" period I have decided to leave Thailand and try to make some money by ctching the tail of the Celtic Tiger!

[kuma]

Wow, thanks for letting me know that my highly educated, light skinned, never been married, has no children, comes from a good family, attractive to both Thais and westerners, Thai GF is a left over that no man Thai wants.

...Obviously, Furbie didn't read carefully, before dumping that emotional response.

...The thread topic is "Thailand Is Down".

BAF's comments are relevant:

The Thai women who "turn their backs" on the Thai men aren't the "pretty ones". They are, lookwise, the least desirable for Thai men's tastes and they are also the least desiderable as wives since they have, usually, already been married (guess what, to a Thai...) and with child(ren). Like it or not, farangs are usually picking up Thai men's leftovers, in Thailand.

...BAF's observations match everything I see here.

And, as Thailand continues to go down -- in various ways -- we will see more and more leftovers on offer.

...Living in Bangkok, and speaking enough Thai to carry on a conversation about such matters, it is easy for me to confirm that the Thai women working in the farang areas are, indeed, leftovers.

Going to work in a farang tourist area is, often, their last-chance on the down-ward slope of their lives.

If they don't win the lottery here, before they reach about 40, then it's back to the village and a hard-scrabble life for their remaining years.

Not just the bar girls, but the waitresses, shop clerks, hotel maids, all of them.

...Now, if you want to see many, really fine, Thai "pretties," just walk past the restaurants and bars catering to Japanese men.

Those girls are consistently adorable, and, often, very well-educated, too.

The quality is very much higher than what's available in the farang places.

The best of the lot are eager to work in the Japanese places, simply because Japanese pay more -- often far more -- than farangs.

As Thailand trends down, the prettiest and the smartest are following the money over to the Japanese side of town.

...Frankly, I like leftovers.

My TGF is one of those leftovers I described above, and I'm very happy with her ways of taking care of me, with her honesty and diligence and her loyalty.

Her skin is rather dark, she's not well-educated, and she's certainly not pretty.

But for an aging farang, it would be difficult to find a better woman.

As Thailand trends down, there will be more and more such high-quality leftovers available to farang men.

For us, it's going to be even more of a buyers market.

.

.

I cant believe I am reading this *hit, and I referring to all of it - not one parties over the other's. Are you guys for real?

[Dupont]

Its usually the guys who marry the "real" Thai women that have the problem.

They are the ones smart enough to have these idotic "my wifes better than your wife" clowns over good and proper.

Who the hel_l are any of you to judge anybody! Writing off people because they are poor, then calling them desperate!

You are beyond contempt and smug beyond belief. How you know your Bank Manager Thai wife isn't boffing some richer guy, or some younger better looking guy?

[qwertz]

These last two posts seem to have wandered way off topic. In answer to the OP, every country has its up and downs, unless it's so down that the only way is up. Thailand doesn't fall under this category and will boom again. The quicker the govt. gets its act together, promotes industry and fosters foreign confidence in investment, the sooner you'll see an upswing. There's nothing wrong with the Thai economy that can't be put right, given the right management.

[ThaiGoon]

These last two posts seem to have wandered way off topic. In answer to the OP, every country has its up and downs, unless it's so down that the only way is up. Thailand doesn't fall under this category and will boom again. The quicker the govt. gets its act together, promotes industry and fosters foreign confidence in investment, the sooner you'll see an upswing. There's nothing wrong with the Thai economy that can't be put right, given the right management.

So true, qwertz.

[LaoPo]

These last two posts seem to have wandered way off topic. In answer to the OP, every country has its up and downs, unless it's so down that the only way is up. Thailand doesn't fall under this category and will boom again.

The quicker the govt. gets its act together, promotes industry and fosters foreign confidence in investment, the sooner you'll see an upswing. There's nothing wrong with the Thai economy that can't be put right, given the right management.

So true, qwertz.

I think most of us agree with 'qwertz'-s last sentence; we all know that....

However, to change the leaders of this country from self-protectionistic into technocratical, economical, pragmatical and caring leaders will take time...a long time.

I said it many times before: it's all about power and money, but maybe I'm wrong and money comes first and than power...no money, no power.

LaoPo

[phuketsiam]

I was back after 2 years of being away, and comparing LOS to the UK, I would say LOS has got more expensive, petrol is so much more, which affects nearly everything, I don't think the Thai economy depends on expats, but tourists are a major factor, and they are finding Thailand a lot more expensive (even non US tourists) and trying other places, the Thai's have less spending money because salaries haven't gone up much, but costs have, so overall the economy is in decline, and thats what people are noticing. I can say its cheaper to buy some things in the UK than LOS now, and take home pay is so much higher, add in free schools, medicine etc, LOS is becoming less attractive for the average ex-pat.

As much as I loved Thailand, I don't really want to live there anymore, holiday yes, retire - maybe, but work - no thanks, been there, enjoyed it, but not going back

[bingobongo]

Thai auto sales down 15 pct yr-on-yr in March, dropping for 3rd mth in a row

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/20...afx3618882.html

[midas]

JRTexas (I always imagine you a bit like JR in Dallas...) - thanks for your post explaining your little holiday, and your thoughts on the economic situation.

I agree with you that Thais (especially SME's, which are a huge part of Thailand) are really being hurt. On the back of their high borrowing / debt rates over the last few years it spells a huge problem.

Be prepared from the nest poster to refute everything that you (and logic) have seen.

I fully agree that Thailand is in a slump. But it will come out of it!

What goes up must come down!

Its all about investing at the right time!

I think the new govt is not helping with building confidence - that is BOTH Thai and foreign confidence!

The sooner they sort out elections and put a proper govt in place, the sooner things can start to improve again!

During this "down" period I have decided to leave Thailand and try to make some money by ctching the tail of the Celtic Tiger!

but this to me appears to be a potentially greater problem than certainly I imagined.............................

in the last few days on Thai visa there have been warnings of further military coups in Thailand ?

After living here for four years one thing I have noticed is Thais are certainly not as uninhibited

about discussing politics. how they ever going to have enough open debate in this country

to be able to identify the next " star " in politics ? I never hear about who to potentially

strong leaders are to get them out of this frozen state ?

[jasreeve17]

These last two posts seem to have wandered way off topic. In answer to the OP, every country has its up and downs, unless it's so down that the only way is up. Thailand doesn't fall under this category and will boom again.

The quicker the govt. gets its act together, promotes industry and fosters foreign confidence in investment, the sooner you'll see an upswing. There's nothing wrong with the Thai economy that can't be put right, given the right management.

So true, qwertz.

I think most of us agree with 'qwertz'-s last sentence; we all know that....

However, to change the leaders of this country from self-protectionistic into technocratical, economical, pragmatical and caring leaders will take time...a long time.

I said it many times before: it's all about power and money, but maybe I'm wrong and money comes first and than power...no money, no power.

LaoPo

Very good point LaoPo.

The problem being that these morons at the top won't be going away in a hurry. Thus instead of moving along with other countries in Asia (Malaysia, Singapore, HK, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, China, India, etc), Thailand will start to fall behind (further) and perhaps even go backwards. These self protecting "leaders" are seriously damaging Thailand's future.

Qwertz is correct too, but the right managment is not going to come in a hurry. So the up period is further away, and in the mean time the down period gets worse, and the long term damage increases.

[torito]

Wow, thanks for letting me know that my highly educated, light skinned, never been married, has no children, comes from a good family, attractive to both Thais and westerners, Thai GF is a left over that no man Thai wants.

...Obviously, Furbie didn't read carefully, before dumping that emotional response.

...The thread topic is "Thailand Is Down".

BAF's comments are relevant:

The Thai women who "turn their backs" on the Thai men aren't the "pretty ones". They are, lookwise, the least desirable for Thai men's tastes and they are also the least desiderable as wives since they have, usually, already been married (guess what, to a Thai...) and with child(ren). Like it or not, farangs are usually picking up Thai men's leftovers, in Thailand.

...BAF's observations match everything I see here.

And, as Thailand continues to go down -- in various ways -- we will see more and more leftovers on offer.

...Living in Bangkok, and speaking enough Thai to carry on a conversation about such matters, it is easy for me to confirm that the Thai women working in the farang areas are, indeed, leftovers.

Going to work in a farang tourist area is, often, their last-chance on the down-ward slope of their lives.

If they don't win the lottery here, before they reach about 40, then it's back to the village and a hard-scrabble life for their remaining years.

Not just the bar girls, but the waitresses, shop clerks, hotel maids, all of them.

...Now, if you want to see many, really fine, Thai "pretties," just walk past the restaurants and bars catering to Japanese men.

Those girls are consistently adorable, and, often, very well-educated, too.

The quality is very much higher than what's available in the farang places.

The best of the lot are eager to work in the Japanese places, simply because Japanese pay more -- often far more -- than farangs.

As Thailand trends down, the prettiest and the smartest are following the money over to the Japanese side of town.

...Frankly, I like leftovers.

My TGF is one of those leftovers I described above, and I'm very happy with her ways of taking care of me, with her honesty and diligence and her loyalty.

Her skin is rather dark, she's not well-educated, and she's certainly not pretty.

But for an aging farang, it would be difficult to find a better woman.

As Thailand trends down, there will be more and more such high-quality leftovers available to farang men.

For us, it's going to be even more of a buyers market.

.

.

I cant believe I am reading this *hit, and I referring to all of it - not one parties over the other's. Are you guys for real?

I am with you Kuma....not easy to describe it with words...