Thailand Property Depression

[ArranP]

no comment ?? therefore this thread will drop like a brick.

There fore I put it to you it is not a good time to invest in thai property, my apologies to those heavily invest already.

Regards

Arran.

[jumnien]

The baht has been strengthening due to the foreign funds, much in dollars, flooding into the country. Overlooked, is the amount of people with money, big money, relocating into the country. Property now is phenomenally cheap right now in Thailand relative to other places like Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. As soon as the market prices dropped 5% - 10%, which is highly unlikely, these tens of thousands of people with money would jump in to buy it. There money has to go somewhere. Why not here? That's why few bargains are to be found. The landscape has changed massively during the Thaksin administration's years in office.

[bingobongo]

The baht has been strengthening due to the foreign funds, much in dollars, flooding into the country. Overlooked, is the amount of people with money, big money, relocating into the country. Property now is phenomenally cheap right now in Thailand relative to other places like Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. As soon as the market prices dropped 5% - 10%, which is highly unlikely, these tens of thousands of people with money would jump in to buy it. There money has to go somewhere. Why not here? That's why few bargains are to be found. The landscape has changed massively during the Thaksin administration's years in office.

why not? your dreaming, here are some reasons why not:

-coup

-police state (junta consolidating power)

-oversupply of property

-vague foreigner ownership rights (changs every hour)

-slowing thai economy

-fear bombings in south will increase

-capital controls

-stricter lending rules

tens of thousands ready to buy? sure. who are you referring to? thais? they can't afford to buy at these bloated prices. "big money" is big money because they are not dumb enough to throw money at a losing investment. "big money" will build the condos and sell to the "small money" suckers. only "small money" will buy and will be left holding the bag as the housing market corrects.

yes, the landscape has changed since the coup. violence in south has increased, censorship has increased, economy is slowing, and any semblence of "democracy" has disappeared. stop drinking the kool aid.

[jumnien]

My 175 square meter condo here at Palm Hills Golf Resort cost 3.5 million at about the time Thaksin was elected. I bought the same size condo next door last year for 5.8 million, now they are selling for 6.5 - 7.5 million baht. Sure, one factor for the price rises in condos is uncertainty over the home ownership laws. But, there are no give-aways in the house market either. A critical mass have come to Thailand which makes it much easier than it was 5 years ago to come live here. Before it took an adventurer to come, now just about any foreigner would be comfortable here. And yes, the problems in the South do impact the market here in Hua Hin. I know of one Thai buddhist doctor that finally got fed up with Pattani and bought a home in Hua Hin for his family.

-coup; not an issue

-police state (junta consolidating power); I'm not a big fan of the junta, but it isn't any better in my home Bush-land

-oversupply of property; leads to good pricing for buyers; nothing worse than buying in an undersupplied market

-vague foreigner ownership rights (changs every hour); leads to price stability in condos

-slowing thai economy; oossibly cheaper help and lower prices all around

-fear bombings in south will increase; bad news for buddhist teachers in Pattani, hope they don't overcrowd market here.

-capital controls; not interested in bonds

-stricter lending rules; keeps the broke speculators out. who needs a loan?

[sunshine13]

i love the way people make conclusions based on short term data. My Condo went up in price 15% the last three years, therefore it will go up 15% the next three years.

[sunshine13]

"police state (junta consolidating power); I'm not a big fan of the junta, but it isn't any better in my home Bush-land"

seriously?

[JimmyTheMook]

i love the way people make conclusions based on short term data. My Condo went up in price 15% the last three years, therefore it will go up 15% the next three years.

LOL!

Try and sell it

[LoveDaBlues]

The baht has been strengthening due to the foreign funds, much in dollars, flooding into the country. Overlooked, is the amount of people with money, big money, relocating into the country. Property now is phenomenally cheap right now in Thailand relative to other places like Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. As soon as the market prices dropped 5% - 10%, which is highly unlikely, these tens of thousands of people with money would jump in to buy it. There money has to go somewhere. Why not here? That's why few bargains are to be found. The landscape has changed massively during the Thaksin administration's years in office.

why not? your dreaming, here are some reasons why not:

-coup

-police state (junta consolidating power)

-oversupply of property

-vague foreigner ownership rights (changs every hour)

-slowing thai economy

-fear bombings in south will increase

-capital controls

-stricter lending rules

tens of thousands ready to buy? sure. who are you referring to? thais? they can't afford to buy at these bloated prices. "big money" is big money because they are not dumb enough to throw money at a losing investment. "big money" will build the condos and sell to the "small money" suckers. only "small money" will buy and will be left holding the bag as the housing market corrects.

yes, the landscape has changed since the coup. violence in south has increased, censorship has increased, economy is slowing, and any semblence of "democracy" has disappeared. stop drinking the kool aid.

I assume you're talking about ownership of property since you didn't say.

When has this EVER changed? Foreigners cannot own property in Thailand. Changes every hour?

[jumnien]

i love the way people make conclusions based on short term data. My Condo went up in price 15% the last three years, therefore it will go up 15% the next three years.

LOL!

Try and sell it

Why would I want to sell it? I'll be here for many decades, God willing! The one's around me are selling like hot cakes.

[sunshine13]

i love the way people make conclusions based on short term data. My Condo went up in price 15% the last three years, therefore it will go up 15% the next three years.

LOL!

Try and sell it

Why would I want to sell it? I'll be here for many decades, God willing! The one's around me are selling like hot cakes.

Cool! I would never want to live in one place for several decades though.

[backflip]

"I would never want to live in one place for several decades though."

My thoughts, exactly. I always found it humorous when a middle-aged farang complained that he could only get a 30-year lease on a home! "Aw, jeez, I want a 60, no, a 90-year lease for me and my beloved 18-year old GF!"

[jumnien]

"I would never want to live in one place for several decades though."

My thoughts, exactly. I always found it humorous when a middle-aged farang complained that he could only get a 30-year lease on a home! "Aw, jeez, I want a 60, no, a 90-year lease for me and my beloved 18-year old GF!"

I agree. I probably won't live here for decades. The longest I've ever lived in one property in my life is 7 years in a ghetto of Los Angeles. I have dreams just like everyone. Believe me, I'm hoping for a crash in the market as much as we all are. I have 2 condos here and 2 in Bangkok and a 2-seater and 4-seater airplane and 2 cars and I'd like more or different stuff. But at these prices coupled with the exchange rates if everything keeps increasing in value in dollar terms it takes the attraction away. That's why it's been so much cheaper to live in Thailand this last year since the baht appreciated. I just spend a bit of money on food and stuff and don't make the big purchases and I've cashed out much of my Thai stock holdings as they increased 17% in dollar terms alone in a short amount of time.

We all pray for the same crash to occur. I just really don't think it's coming and have decided to prepare for the likely, and frankly quite depressing, reality that it won't.

[Naam]

"I would never want to live in one place for several decades though."

My thoughts, exactly. I always found it humorous when a middle-aged farang complained that he could only get a 30-year lease on a home! "Aw, jeez, I want a 60, no, a 90-year lease for me and my beloved 18-year old GF!"

it's not really humorous but a logical financial conclusion to obtain a 90year lease (if it existed). suppose the middle-aged farang wants to sell his property after a few years because his young girlfriend found a young boyfriend then it makes a big difference whether the remaining lease is 25 or 85 years.

[hellohello]

I think it depends on where you are. The island (in Krabi) I live on is exploding- with Swedes mostly- A large majority who dont mix with the thais (ie No wife/husband) none of them seem to care and are buying 30 year leases and electing a Thai friends to purchase a house for them with simple contracts- condos haven’t even reached us here. But they are coming. Prices are up 20-50% in the last few years..

go figure...

[solo siam]

Phuket is also exploding, with some big names opening resorts, hotels and property developments.

[sunshine13]

problem i see with property in thailand is that you have to pay cash upfront. If you just keep that money liquid and have it invested in a some low risk or no risk places you should get atleast 5%/year. I think rents in Thailand hoover around the 5% of unit cost anually...

I just dont see thailand as a good place 'to invest' money, but if you are planning to live here long term, then I dont see that much downside to buying.

Personally, I plan to keep my money liquid and have the choice to move around the country/city at my will and not have any big worries like what happens when I have to deal with thai insurance agents

[MVSGUY]

The baht has been strengthening due to the foreign funds, much in dollars, flooding into the country. Overlooked, is the amount of people with money, big money, relocating into the country. Property now is phenomenally cheap right now in Thailand relative to other places like Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. As soon as the market prices dropped 5% - 10%, which is highly unlikely, these tens of thousands of people with money would jump in to buy it. There money has to go somewhere. Why not here? That's why few bargains are to be found. The landscape has changed massively during the Thaksin administration's years in office.

Hmmm on the coolaid again???

Sorry that was intended as a reply to BingoBongo....

People may or may not continue to invest in Thailand - the next six months is critical for the current administration to 'get it right'.

Edited April 1, 2007 by MVSGUY

[bingobongo]

The baht has been strengthening due to the foreign funds, much in dollars, flooding into the country. Overlooked, is the amount of people with money, big money, relocating into the country. Property now is phenomenally cheap right now in Thailand relative to other places like Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. As soon as the market prices dropped 5% - 10%, which is highly unlikely, these tens of thousands of people with money would jump in to buy it. There money has to go somewhere. Why not here? That's why few bargains are to be found. The landscape has changed massively during the Thaksin administration's years in office.

Hmmm on the coolaid again???

Sorry that was intended as a reply to BingoBongo....

People may or may not continue to invest in Thailand - the next six months is critical for the current administration to 'get it right'.

that is just it, they wont "get it right". i hope your kool aid is refreshing

Foreign investors fed up with Thai fumbles

"Who knows what the next rule change will be, but it's probably not far away. In the meantime, we view (the baht) as best avoided for anyone without a strong need to be involved."

"Thailand is not the only market in Asia, and it's not a sizable market either," he said. "So do we need to spend a lot of time and resources to monitor such an unclear but small market? I think obviously the answer is no."

http://www.borsaitaliana.reuters.it/news/N...r=0&summit=

[bingobongo]

here are some facts without the usually board rhetoric about "big money" and "prices only going up"

Slowing growth in housing loans foreseen: KRC

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=28699

[palm]

problem i see with property in thailand is that you have to pay cash upfront. If you just keep that money liquid and have it invested in a some low risk or no risk places you should get atleast 5%/year. I think rents in Thailand hoover around the 5% of unit cost anually...

I just dont see thailand as a good place 'to invest' money, but if you are planning to live here long term, then I dont see that much downside to buying.

Personally, I plan to keep my money liquid and have the choice to move around the country/city at my will and not have any big worries like what happens when I have to deal with thai insurance agents

Getting a 5% return a year on stashing cash in the bank is not 'investing' - it is 'breaking-even'.

[jumnien]

Most of my net worth is in commercial real estate in the different areas of the US, mostly partnerships in tall office buildings. I agree with some who are down on Thailand in that I am not pulling vast amounts of my net worth and plugging it into Thai assets at this time. However, the money I have brought over in the last six years and invested in condos, land, aircraft, and stocks has done quite well. Will it continue to do so, who knows? If nothing else these Thai investments have been a wonderful hedge against the crashing dollar. Also, I am generally optimistic on condo investing (not speculating) in Hua Hin and Bangkok, markets where I live. This is based on the feeling I get that Thailand is becoming a more attractive location to live for foreigners and looks like it will continue to progress. This has nothing to do with the daily drama of Thai politics or the housing loan situation in Lampang.

There is just a critical mass of foreigners that has arrived in the last 3 years and the ever increasing numbers make it easier to live here as the comforts of home appear here in Thailand for the masses of Scandis, Brits, and others arriving. That said, the condo market in Bangkok particularly, as well as Hua Hin, will be dominated by other Asians seeking inexpensive second homes close to their native land.

[VegasVic]

The baht has been strengthening due to the foreign funds, much in dollars, flooding into the country. Overlooked, is the amount of people with money, big money, relocating into the country. Property now is phenomenally cheap right now in Thailand relative to other places like Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. As soon as the market prices dropped 5% - 10%, which is highly unlikely, these tens of thousands of people with money would jump in to buy it. There money has to go somewhere. Why not here? That's why few bargains are to be found. The landscape has changed massively during the Thaksin administration's years in office.

Hmmm on the coolaid again???

Sorry that was intended as a reply to BingoBongo....

People may or may not continue to invest in Thailand - the next six months is critical for the current administration to 'get it right'.

Coolaid? I think that is putting it lightly! If this poster really believes any of this nonsense then he or she is obviously needs to put down the opium pipe because the delusions are quite severe. The Thai realestate market is in crisis currently and heading for a meltdown, you have to be blind to not be able to see it. I have been told that even Marc Holt is closing his real estate business and leaving the country.

[Casanundra]

The baht has been strengthening due to the foreign funds, much in dollars, flooding into the country. Overlooked, is the amount of people with money, big money, relocating into the country. Property now is phenomenally cheap right now in Thailand relative to other places like Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. As soon as the market prices dropped 5% - 10%, which is highly unlikely, these tens of thousands of people with money would jump in to buy it. There money has to go somewhere. Why not here? That's why few bargains are to be found. The landscape has changed massively during the Thaksin administration's years in office.

Hmmm on the coolaid again???

Sorry that was intended as a reply to BingoBongo....

People may or may not continue to invest in Thailand - the next six months is critical for the current administration to 'get it right'.

Coolaid? I think that is putting it lightly! If this poster really believes any of this nonsense then he or she is obviously needs to put down the opium pipe because the delusions are quite severe. The Thai realestate market is in crisis currently and heading for a meltdown, you have to be blind to not be able to see it. I have been told that even Marc Holt is closing his real estate business and leaving the country.

As far as I am aware, Marc Holt is not closing down his business per sae, he is just going to have someone else run it while he moves back home to Oz in order to give his two daughters a better chance of a decent education.

[LoveDaBlues]

no comment ?? therefore this thread will drop like a brick.

There fore I put it to you it is not a good time to invest in thai property, my apologies to those heavily invest already.

Regards

Arran.

I have to laugh when people talk about the correct 'time' to buy property. ANYTIME is the correct time if you get a good deal you're happy with. Now, how hard is that to understand?

[Gary A]

I have to laugh when people talk about the correct 'time' to buy property. ANYTIME is the correct time if you get a good deal you're happy with. Now, how hard is that to understand?

Why do you want to kill the thread? Your answer is entirely too logical and accurate. I bought my condo because I liked it, it was priced to suit me and I didn't care what the value did after that. I didn't make an investment, I bought a place to live and to call my own.

As to what happened in Spain, Italy, Mexico or wherever, who cares?

[Phil Conners]

I don't know by the rest of Thailand but I can assure you that house prices in the Pattaya area are down at least 20% from their highs and still nothing is selling.

The reason the Baht is so strong seems to be that Thailand now have a large export industry but practically doesn't import much.

[Naam]

I don't know by the rest of Thailand but I can assure you that house prices in the Pattaya area are down at least 20% from their highs and still nothing is selling.

nothing much sold during the last 2-3 years because homeowners (especially in the 12-20 million baht range) had and still have wet dreams what prices they can get for their property. the "highs" were nothing but hallucinations.

[Naam]

I bought my condo because I liked it, it was priced to suit me and I didn't care what the value did after that. I didn't make an investment, I bought a place to live and to call my own.

anybody who buys property to live in and worries about the value is a poor man.

[dave111223]

anybody who buys property to live in and worries about the value is a poor man.

What a foolish statement

[Scottbiker1976]

Get ready for the BIG SALE in a few years when Thai people can't pay off their creditcards, home and carloans anymore.....this people are living above their standards. Do some people here know how bad it really is with credit card debt in Thailand ??? I wonder....

Do farangs know how easy it is to get a loan for thai people or a car loan with a salary of 10,000 baht/month, you should try in the states or Europe........what a difference.........this can't keep on going like this anymore for long...........it's about too burst soon.

Get ready ?

Scottbiker