3 hours ago, saengd said:

That's pretty much what an independent central bank does, as long as they are acting out government policy.

 

and do you think BoT is an INDEPENDENT central bank, Thai government has no say on their (BoT) decisions, I do have to 555

3 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

What action can they do?

 

They know that cutting interests rates will have a minimal effect. They have no power over Forex traders and international investors in their decision making.

 

The strong Thai balance of payments and Forex reserves is seen as a safe haven at the moment. USD crashing, GBP up and down like a whore's draws; Euro looking weak and dodgy. Trade deals on/off/on/off etc etc.

 

What action would you advise then?

The floating peg is a problem, it's called a dirty float for good reason, if THB were hard pegged to USD that would solve the problem but memories of 1997 still linger and they are highly unlikely to do that.

 

Restricting bond purchases to Thai institutions would help, that would reduce FDI. 

 

Further loosening of the restrictions governing repatriation of funds may help but if I read things correctly Thai people want to own THB, not USD.

 

Entering into more currency swap agreements would work really well, especially with China, that way there's no USD export bill to settle.

 

Reducing hot money flows by specifying a minimum time frame before funds could be repatriated by imposing a ten percent tax will create a two market system, onshore and offshore, just like a few years ago.

 

 

7 minutes ago, BestB said:

Oh I see. Good to see another expert economist in the mist. So BOT and baht is influenced by US????

Yes, very much so.

all previous Thai government forecasts were so positive that one has to wonder why all of a sudden things don't appear as positive anymore, but they may have learned from the masters of forecast, China, for the past 5-6 years,  always forecasts their growth at around 6.1 to 6.2% year and guess what, every single year the growth matches their forecasts.... maybe and just maybe the Chinese fortune (forecast) teller is better than the Thai

2 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

and do you think BoT is an INDEPENDENT central bank, Thai government has no say on their (BoT) decisions, I do have to 555

Put it this way.....about 2007 or so when government wanted to get their hands on the Foreign Currency Reserves the then BOT Governor, Tarisa Watanagase said no and some friction developed, the outcome was that a person with extremely high rank in the land came out publicly in support of the Governor.

20 minutes ago, BestB said:

This I knew, just did not know junior expert economist parroted the sane nonsense to appear smart ????

If you need help with the bigger words I can help, feel free to ask.

1 minute ago, saengd said:

If you need help with the bigger words I can help, feel free to ask.

I need help with bigger words, please help 

5 minutes ago, BestB said:

I need help with bigger words, please help 

 

 

Back onto ignore you go BB, byee, again!

Edited December 31, 20196 yr by saengd

7 minutes ago, saengd said:

 

 

Back onto ignore you go BB, byee, again!

First you tell me to feel free to ask for help and you be happy to help but when I ask you tell me to go away ? That’s not very nice 

The USD has dropped below 30 baht to 29.76 baht today for the first time since 2013.

 

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=1W

 

So all this talk about Thai strengthening is just useless talk.

 

If USD drops below 29, that will the lowest in more than 10 years.

Edited December 31, 20196 yr by EricTh

On 12/31/2019 at 7:01 AM, tonray said:

Much of the blame rests on the US. Driving down interest rates and slowing macro economic data. If the US President was not openly calling for negative rates AND the FED not embarking on a policy of appeasment during what they claim is the best economy and job market ever we would have a stronger dollar. 

So I guess it is OK for other nations to have low interest rates. But, if the U.S. does it, it is the fault of the U.S. that you are getting a bad baht rate? 

 

  The real reason is that US interest rates are the highest among developed nations, and developed nations are lowering their interest rates even further. The United States' 10-year bond yield, which is the first mover for all domestic interest rates, is also the highest among those of other developed countries, and this is the reason why the Fed cannot keep the current level of interest rates.

On 12/31/2019 at 8:21 AM, soalbundy said:

Alone all this talk of reigning in the Baht should make foreign investors cautious, talk alone can accomplish much.

Indeed. Can we eat Baht? Maybe as a side dish to tourist numbers????

On 12/31/2019 at 7:01 AM, tonray said:

Much of the blame rests on the US. Driving down interest rates and slowing macro economic data. If the US President was not openly calling for negative rates AND the FED not embarking on a policy of appeasment during what they claim is the best economy and job market ever we would have a stronger dollar. 

Trump doesn’t control the Federal Reserve ????