Coronavirus and drought crises to take a toll on Thai economy

By THE NATION

 

Thanavath Phonvichai

 

Negative factors like the new coronavirus outbreak and the drought situation in the country could cost the country Bt226.7 billion this year, according to estimates by the Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

 

 

UTCC president Thanavath Phonvichai said this week that the centre had evaluated the effects on the Thai economy of the coronavirus outbreak -- which affects the tourism sector and also the demand for Thai goods -- the ongoing drought, the PM2.5 dust crisis and the delay in the 2020 budget disbursement.

 

The centre, however, has not yet revised down its forecast for Thai economic growth this year from 2.8 per cent, as it was waiting to see if the government’s current and upcoming remedial measures could successfully ameliorate the problems.

 

The centre estimated that in case the coronavirus outbreak could be contained by March, the number of tourist arrivals in Thailand would be lower by 2.41 million, of which 1.84 million would be Chinese. This will cost the Thai economy about Bt117.3 billion.

 

If the epidemic prolongs till May, it will cost Thailand Bt189.2 billion.The outbreak in China is predicted to pull China’s economic growth this year below the current forecast of 5.9 per cent. Its slowing economy will result in a decline in the global economy, which will affect the demand of Thai goods accordingly.

 

The centre estimated that if China can control the virus spread by March, the impact on Thai exports would be limited to Bt15.5 billion. If China can control the situation only in May, the impact on Thai goods would be much higher at Bt36.7 billion.

 

In the case of budget disbursement, which should have been released last October, if the disbursement begins in April, will cost the gross domestic product (GDP) Bt77.5 billion. If the disbursement starts as late as June, it will hurt GDP by around Bt167 billion.

 

The PM2.5 dust pollution, if not at a serious level for more than two weeks, will affect GDP by Bt3.8 billion. If the situation prevails for not more than one month, it will cost Bt6.2 billion, according to UTCC's estimates.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30381354

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-02-01

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Sounds very optimistic in my opinion. Tourism is Thailands backbone and disease, pollution, dust and drought could do much more than set it back a little. A severe crash is not beyond the imagination. 

14 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

The centre estimated that in case the coronavirus outbreak could be contained by March, the number of tourist arrivals in Thailand would be lower by 2.41 million, of which 1.84 million would be Chinese. This will cost the Thai economy about Bt117.3 billion.

and in addition they became diviners.
Too strong the guys from this government ...

But that's not all, with what (monkey) currency are we going to pay the Chinese to buy them their second-hand submarines? 

1 hour ago, Lungstib said:

Sounds very optimistic in my opinion. Tourism is Thailands backbone and disease, pollution, dust and drought could do much more than set it back a little. A severe crash is not beyond the imagination. 

With global economy downturn, inflated Baht and the enormous loan bubble. Are we witnessing the final hours of the teflon economy?

4 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

With global economy downturn, inflated Baht and the enormous loan bubble. Are we witnessing the final hours of the teflon economy?

Could well be but it won't be their fault of course as everything is somebody else's fault !

Why do they keep repeating this story every day - It would bring a tear to a glass eye.......!!

Should read 

 

Cronyvirus and dumb leadership crises to take a toll on Thai economy

6 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

With global economy downturn, inflated Baht and the enormous loan bubble. Are we witnessing the final hours of the teflon economy?

At least the numb nuts running, sorry, purportedly running the Country, have an excuse to blame it on something else rather than look in the mirror!!????????????????

7 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

With global economy downturn, inflated Baht and the enormous loan bubble. Are we witnessing the final hours of the teflon economy?

Yes,  a convergence of events is going to have a drastic effect on the Thai economy. We are already seeing it in the decline of the Baht and the massive loss of tourism.

 

The virus  or actually fear is what is driving the markets now. People are not flying; the Chinese are  in quarantine in their own country.  Goods and Services Worldwide are impacted.

 

Thailand does not have as much foreign currency entering and investment income will not come. 

 

The Thai Government is running a deficit budget and can't even get a budget approved and disbursed.

 

Markets and investors do not like uncertainty and there is just too much of it in Thailand.   Throw in the drought and expect a dry Sogkran - in all respects.

3 hours ago, trainman34014 said:

Could well be but it won't be their fault of course as everything is somebody else's fault !

Took lessons from the brexiteers,blame everything on the foreigners.

9 hours ago, rooster59 said:

UTCC president Thanavath Phonvichai said this week that the centre had evaluated the effects on the Thai economy of the coronavirus outbreak -- which affects the tourism sector and also the demand for Thai goods -- the ongoing drought, the PM2.5 dust crisis and the delay in the 2020 budget disbursement.

Nice work Parayut & Co.... almost 6 years in command and sod-all achieved except a downward trend in all areas except corruption and self enrichment for the elite, that's gone up nicely ! 

3 hours ago, trainman34014 said:

Could well be but it won't be their fault of course as everything is somebody else's fault !

If you dig deep enough, there will always be "explanation" for failure. 

I guess this applies to any country and any incapable system (not only Thai)

In case all excuses run out, blame the previous government ????

He only forecasts out a month or 3 due to interruption from the virus.   I dont think  its linear and can easily have a year  long lasting  effect.  I'm sure there will be a several month lag in return of tourists if and when  Thailand and all surrounding countries are given the all cured green light.  

Same with this terrible  air that has become the norm.  Kanchacaburi 500 I cant imagine.   Before I would  plan a family vacation to Thailand  in high season I would have to see that the past  season was good air after some major  government crackdown and solution to the root causes.  Many people dont do last minute  trips but plan months in advance.    

I dont expect tourist number  to previous levels for 12 months. 

3 minutes ago, Elkski said:

He only forecasts out a month or 3 due to interruption from the virus.   I dont think  its linear and can easily have a year  long lasting  effect.  I'm sure there will be a several month lag in return of tourists if and when  Thailand and all surrounding countries are given the all cured green light.  

Same with this terrible  air that has become the norm.  Kanchacaburi 500 I cant imagine.   Before I would  plan a family vacation to Thailand  in high season I would have to see that the past  season was good air after some major  government crackdown and solution to the root causes.  Many people dont do last minute  trips but plan months in advance.    

I dont expect tourist number  to previous levels for 12 months. 

Not necessarily. The way it works in the industry is that very often, if the suppliers have been paid, they will not refund the payment but carry it over to a future date. Similarly, in case of credit, the tour operators promises future business in order to avoid the cancellation fees. 
So once the all clear is given, I expect that there will be a surge in tourism again. 

17 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Nice work Parayut & Co.... almost 6 years in command and sod-all achieved except a downward trend in all areas except corruption and self enrichment for the elite, that's gone up nicely ! 

All the ingredients for civil unrest. 

The centre, however, has not yet revised down its forecast for Thai economic growth this year from 2.8 per cent, as it was waiting to see if the government’s current and upcoming remedial measures could successfully ameliorate the problems.

 

And wait and wait and wait on pal????

21 hours ago, simtemple said:

All the ingredients for civil unrest. 

Domestic economy under threat, exports in jeopardy, SME's struggling, tourism dying, non-existent water management [high-lighted by drought conditions], high baht, air-pollution threatening peoples health, waste management incapable of dealing with domestic refuse..... lack of safety on Thai roads 

it's all adding up to boiling point...

Some troll posts have been removed. 

30 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Domestic economy under threat, exports in jeopardy, SME's struggling, tourism dying, non-existent water management [high-lighted by drought conditions], high baht, air-pollution threatening peoples health, waste management incapable of dealing with domestic refuse..... lack of safety on Thai roads 

it's all adding up to boiling point...

This is what happens when you replace an elected and quasi-competent civil administration with a standover man and his henchmen.

 

Nero is fiddling? He ain't even in the country. 

A troll post using trolling representations of politician's names has been removed.  If you do not want your post to be removed, please spell people's names correctly.

This should do the foreign reserves in BoT a lot of good (not)   The baht to go into freefall,  get the 800.000 out now   worthless in a few days

The Sky is falling AGAIN ????

21 minutes ago, izod10 said:

This should do the foreign reserves in BoT a lot of good (not)   The baht to go into freefall,  get the 800.000 out now   worthless in a few days

only in our dreams i fear .

The biggest crisis to hit the Thai economy?The winner is......the current pretend administration which is in denial about it's contribution always concentrating on looking to blame other factors when their ineptitude and greed far outweigh the excuses they proliferate.

On 2/1/2020 at 4:47 PM, adammike said:

Took lessons from the brexiteers,blame everything on the foreigners.

Actually, most Brexiteers blame New Labour, wealthy foreign financiers, and EU corruptocrats.

 

It'd be nice to see the Baht weaken a bit against the pound though - it might help tourism...

I wonder what has happened to all the junta fan boys. Their voices were so loud a few years ago, drowning out everything and everyone who was not pro-junta. Come on out boys, don’t be shy. Or have you realised that you were maybe mistaken?

I find it strange that a country that relies so heavily on tourism has such crazy problems with everything that is bad for tourism ... air quality, environment pollution, unrealistic currency valuation, military junta government, democracy deficit, horrendous road safety, scams, attitude towards foreigners generally, aggressive and unwelcoming immigration policies and front line attitude of its agents, poor reactive qualities to concerns of their visitors, outright lies about everything ... shall I go on? Somehow Thailand lives in some parallel universe and really - by all normal analysis - should be heading for complete disaster. Wonder how long they can stave it all off (maybe that depends on how long they can hoodwink the Chinese into coming)?

Edited February 3, 20206 yr by Brigand

Defiance combined with entitlement , will definitely seal Thailands fate.With the manipulated high baht remaining high to push Thailand straight into the ground.

Edited February 3, 20206 yr by mok199

In Chiang Mai, things must be bad .. I was solicited in 7/11 yesterday 

On 2/3/2020 at 8:18 AM, hotchilli said:

Domestic economy under threat, exports in jeopardy, SME's struggling, tourism dying, non-existent water management [high-lighted by drought conditions], high baht, air-pollution threatening peoples health, waste management incapable of dealing with domestic refuse..... lack of safety on Thai roads 

it's all adding up to boiling point...

You sound suicidal