China's coronavirus infections hit daily record, deaths climb to 304

[Basil B]

3 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

I don't see where Tom Cotton suggested where the virus came from. Perhaps I missed something in the post you are reacting to.

 

As for "deflecting", I don't find that valid. A US Senator deals with many issues, both at home and abroad. To think he should simply shut up about a very serious health issue because you think he should be talking about ______________ instead doesn't seem rational to me.

Yes you did...

First line by GeorgeCross

1 hour ago, Basil B said:

10 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

American Senator hinting heavily it may have come from Wuhan Bio Lab - yikes

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Things seem to be getting even scarier out there in China -- now forcible quarantine centers for folks with diagnosed symptoms (which apparently can be short of a confirmed test result), to be enforced by the police:

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048619/coronavirus-patients-wuhan-ordered-go-quarantine-zones

 

Quote

 

Coronavirus suspects in Wuhan ordered to go to quarantine zones

Anyone in Wuhan who is suspected of being infected with the new coronavirus or has been in close contact with a confirmed case must relocate to a dedicated quarantine centre, local authorities said on Sunday, as the contagion shows no sign of slowing down in the city where it was first detected.
 

People who had been professionally diagnosed as having a fever and pneumonia symptoms would be transported by specialist vehicle to one of the isolation sites, the city’s emergency headquarters said in a statement.
 

“Patients shall cooperate,” it said. “Whoever refuses to cooperate will be subject to enforcement by the police.” ... While the government did not say how many quarantine sites there were, where they were located or how many people would be affected, it said the new rule would take immediate effect.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

As of the DDC's status report for the period ending Saturday, Thailand at 19 still had the most confirmed coronavirus cases outside of China, trailed closed by Singapore at 16.

 

 

At least for the moment, depending on which source you consult, Japan seems to have for the time being eclipsed Thailand as having the most diagnosed cases outside of China....

 

The latest numbers show 20 for Japan and 19 at present for Thailand, though I'd bet Thailand is far behind Japan in terms of producing timely lab test results of suspected cases with a backlog of 300+ pending cases. And Japan's count was boosted by diagnosed cases among its evacuee flights this week out of Wuhan.

 

Johns Hopkins

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

 

 

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

 

Quote

 

Situation update 2 February 12:00 CET

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 2 February 2020, 14 564 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported and 305 deaths.

Cases have been reported on the following continents:
Asia: China (14 407), Japan (20), Thailand (19), Singapore (18), Republic of Korea (15), Taiwan (11), Malaysia (8), Vietnam (7), United Arab Emirates (5), India (2), The Philippines (2), Cambodia (1), Nepal (1), and Sri Lanka (1).
Europe: Germany (8), France (6), Italy (2), United Kingdom (2), Russia (2), Finland (1), Spain (1) and Sweden (1).
America: the United States (8) and Canada (4).
Oceania: Australia (12).

 

Out of the 305 deaths reported, 304 have been reported from China: Hubei (294), Henan (2), Heilongjiang (2), Beijing (1), Hainan (1), Hebei (1), Shanghai (1), Sichuan (1), Chongqing (1).

One death was reported from the Philippines.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Skallywag]

19 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Consider that by day 18, there would be over 400,000 patients requiring ICU care.  To put this in perspective, consider the fact that the entire USA only has about 100,000 ICU beds!

Your "day 18" scenario is a bit confusing.  Only 11% of the 20,000 cases in China hospitals are in "critical" condition.  Only those where pneumonia is in an advanced stage AFAIK.  SO that means around 2300 in ICU beds

 

And of course 20,000 in China infected as of today.   Infected rate increased 2800 in one day in China, website below says only 2300 people are "critical" in China - how does that relate to 400,000 ending up in ICU on day 18?  

 

From 3 days ago "Many people who get this new virus will only suffer mild symptoms, and most are expected to make a full recovery." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51295415

 

The "pandemic" so far is a misnomer, 98.5% of new cases are in China, only 1.5%  in other parts of the world.  According to this site, only 2300 "critical" in China and 475 have been "cured"  which is 19% and means only 1800 in ICU beds in China   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Edited February 3, 2020 by Skallywag

[tomazbodner]

12 hours ago, shadowofacloud said:

Some more fiddling with stats:

 

Mortality rate actually falling.

 

My prediction for next set of data (Feb 02):  infected: 15973; new cases: 1673; deaths 340. Purely subjective, super basic statistics.

You're off by your prediction. 1600 cases too low, 22 deaths too low. This number in screenshot below hasn't changed since yesterday as I think it's only updated once a day...

 

[Sujo]

11 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

At least for the moment, depending on which source you consult, Japan seems to have for the time being eclipsed Thailand as having the most diagnosed cases outside of China....

 

The latest numbers show 20 for Japan and 19 at present for Thailand, though I'd bet Thailand is far behind Japan in terms of producing timely lab test results of suspected cases with a backlog of 300+ pending cases. And Japan's count was boosted by diagnosed cases among its evacuee flights this week out of Wuhan.

 

Johns Hopkins

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

 

 

I expect Malaysias numbers to rise a lot. Very big chinese community who just returned from china after chinese new year holiday.

[shadowofacloud]

31 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

You're off by your prediction. 1600 cases too low, 22 deaths too low. This number in screenshot below hasn't changed since yesterday as I think it's only updated once a day...

 

Way off, I admit [edit: actually, if you look at the chart, which is using the EOD numbers, the number of cases was 16600, so not that bad, and I based my extrapolation on EOD numbers from prev days - the 17k+ number you show is based on the current information). But it was something whipped up by fiddling with moving averages in a couple minutes, didn't expect it to be very successful anyway.

 

Another observation from this morning - again, might be total coincidental. I've grouped the number of new cases in similar periods (5 and 6 days). So the average between Jan 21 and Jan 26 is around 400. Then it rises over fourfold (x4.25) to 1700 for the next period of 5 days. Last two days indicate another jump, but much less pronounced - x1.7.

 

Also, mortality rate stable and slightly falling:

 

Again - I am not pretending to be a the national office of statistics or an expert on epidemiology. Juts playing with numbers.

Edited February 3, 2020 by shadowofacloud

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, Skallywag said:

Your "day 18" scenario is a bit confusing.  Only 11% of the 20,000 cases in China hospitals are in "critical" condition.  Only those where pneumonia is in an advanced stage AFAIK.  SO that means around 2300 in ICU beds

 

And of course 20,000 in China infected as of today.   Infected rate increased 2800 in one day in China, website below says only 2300 people are "critical" in China - how does that relate to 400,000 ending up in ICU on day 18?  

 

From 3 days ago "Many people who get this new virus will only suffer mild symptoms, and most are expected to make a full recovery." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51295415

 

The "pandemic" so far is a misnomer, 98.5% of new cases are in China, only 1.5%  in other parts of the world.  According to this site, only 2300 "critical" in China and 475 have been "cured"  which is 19% and means only 1800 in ICU beds in China   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As I stated in my post, this projection is based on a daily increase in "confirmed" cases of 40%, and a Serious Complication Rate of 20%.  A 40% increase has been reported on certain days.  On a historical perspective it is around 26-28%% depending on the source of data.  Serious Complication rate is holding at 20% (i.e.: those cases that are requiring ICU care.)

 

From what I've learned, I think 40% daily increases in confirmed cases will be realized as the epidemic grows, and make no mistake it IS growing.  There are now two more epicenters of the outbreak outside of Wuhan, in the Guangdong province and Zhejiang Province.  These are far from Wuhan so the mode of transmission is definitely human-to-human.  Anyone who truly believes this outbreak is being contained is quite mistaken.

 

An important thing to keep in mind is that the numbers of confirmed cases being reported are grossly underestimated because the Chinese Central Government is the sole source of officials numbers, and they have every reason to minimize how dire this is, and that is exactly what they are doing.

 

I know this to be so because I know doctors and nurses working in Shenzhen area hospitals and what they say about the current situation is far different than what is being reported through state-sponsored media.  In short, they are very scared about what is happening and also angered by how the government has handled this crisis!

 

Take, for example, that there are so many suspected cases that the hospitals hospitals are being overwhelmed and unable to administer test kits, and in fact are running out of test kits.  So, the number of positive cases are probably far higher than being released by state-controlled media.

 

Also, it was explained to me by one of the nurses I know that many deaths attributable to n-CoV are not being reported.  The reason is that in China, if a person enters a hospital with a pre-existing condition, say flu-like symptoms or even pneumonia for instance, and then develops more advanced features of n-CoV such as ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) and dies, the official death certificate will list the original pre-existing condition as cause of death.  This is standard-operating-procedures in the Chinese health care system for all infectious diseases.

 

I know this all may seem hard to believe, but it is a fact.  Consider the fact that China has perhaps the lowest "reported" death rate from Influenza in the world at something 50-100 deaths per year.  Do you really believe that?   I sure don't.

 

Bottom line, you can not trust the statistics coming out of China on this outbreak, not even from respected western media sources such as the CDC because at present they have no direct access; the only source of information they have to work with is what is being released by the Chinese government, and they are being FAR from transparent.

 

Potential independent sources of information such as doctors, scientists, and journalists who are on the front-line and try to voice concerns through social media (WeChat) are now aggressively being arrested under the "Rumors Law" and facing up to 7 years in prison.  It's very clear this is happening because almost all independent reports are disappearing from social media in the last few days.

 

I see no reason to believe that all is well in China and everything is under control.  I think it is exactly the opposite.

Edited February 3, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Skallywag]

3 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Potential independent sources of information such as doctors, scientists, and journalists who are on the front-line and try to voice concerns through social media (WeChat) are now aggressively being arrested under the "Rumors Law" and facing up to 7 years in prison.  It's very clear this is happening because almost all independent reports are disappearing from social media in the last few days.

 

I see no reason to believe that all is well in China and everything is under control.  I think it is exactly the opposite.

Yes I do agree in China the virus is spreading quickly and likely to get much worse.  But the spreading to other countries seems minimal at present.  Seems most those reported in other countries are Chinese citizens. 

We shall see in the coming days- weeks. 

Good postings / reporting. I learned a lot about China by reading

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, Skallywag said:

Yes I do agree in China the virus is spreading quickly and likely to get much worse.  But the spreading to other countries seems minimal at present.  Seems most those reported in other countries are Chinese citizens. 

We shall see in the coming days- weeks. 

Good postings / reporting. I learned a lot about China by reading

I hope you are right but viruses have no geographic borders unless they are properly contained and right now China is doing an exceptionally poor job of this.  Frankly the biggest question in the back of my mind is the 5 million+ people that were able to leave Wuhan before the lockdown occured, many of which travelled outside of China and did so before any sort of airport screening was in place, ya know?

 

Many who might have been infected would have been asymptomatic yet still capable of spreading the virus.  I hope I am wrong but I think the impact of that may be realized in the next week or so as more develop symptoms, and more human-to-human transmissions are realized.  Confirmed reports of infections in other countries are increasing, day-to-day, and not all are Chinese people from the affected areas.

 

The Chinese government should have known this would happen considering that the Lunar New Year is a time when the largest migration of people happens in the entire world every year, yet they allowed this to happen.  Even when they announced a "lockdown" they did so a day before enacting it, allowing over 200,000 vehicles to flee the city.

 

My hope is that once the international community gets involved, things will get better, because it's more than obvious that the Chinese government is dropping the ball...over and over and over.

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by WaveHunter

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

5 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Take, for example, that there are so many suspected cases that the hospitals hospitals are being overwhelmed and unable to administer test kits, and in fact are running out of test kits.  So, the number of positive cases are probably far higher than being released by state-controlled media.

 

Also, it was explained to me by one of the nurses I know that many deaths attributable to n-CoV are not being reported.  The reason is that in China, if a person enters a hospital with a pre-existing condition, say flu-like symptoms or even pneumonia for instance, and then develops more advanced features of n-CoV such as ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) and dies, the official death certificate will list the original pre-existing condition as cause of death.  This is standard-operating-procedures in the Chinese health care system for all infectious diseases.

 

Thailand fortunately hasn't had any coronavirus deaths yet that have been publicly reported.

 

But as for just sick people, it's conceivable that similar conduct might be occurring with the authorities here in terms of patients being officially classed as having some other malady other than the coronavirus... and/or potential cases not being promptly diagnosed, confirmed and reported to the public, given that there's currently a fast growing backlog of now 405 potential cases awaiting lab results as of Sunday -- a number that climbed by almost 100 just since the day before.

 

Quote

There are 405 cases in which laboratory results are pending.

 

In comparison, since the beginning of the outbreak, the Thai authorities seemingly have announced lab results for only about 80 patients total -- 19 with confirmed coronavirus results, and 61 with various other illnesses.

 

Thai Department of Disease Control status update as of Feb. 2:

 

Quote

The etiologic agents for the other cases (61) were identified in the final diagnoses as Influenza A virus (11 cases), Influenza B virus (13 cases), Influenza C virus (1 case), Adenovirus (1 case), Streptococcus pneumoniae (1 case), Bronchitis (4 cases), Nasopharyngitis (2 cases), Pharyngitis (8 cases), Common cold (9 cases), RSV infection (3 cases), Tonsillitis (3 cases), Rhinovirus (1 case), Hyperthyroid Fever (1 case), Pneumonia (2 cases) and Acute febrile illness (1 case).

 

And if you match up the 80 publicly reported lab results (19 coronavirus plus 61 other) thus far with the officially stated 405 cases awaiting lab results, that actually equals the current total number of "Patients Under Investigation" that the Thai authorities have reported as of yesterday for this outbreak since the beginning... 

 

 

In other words, the current backlog of suspected but unresolved/unconfirmed cases via lab results continues to grow rapidly, and is far exceeding the much smaller number of lab results that actually have been reported over the past two weeks.

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no30-020263_1.pdf

Edited February 3, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Opl]

Total deaths - total recovered data

2019-nCoV Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE (each point is updated as new cases are identified)

[tomazbodner]

Still going up ????

 

[Traubert]

Well, being here in China, I'll leave you boys to your spreadsheets and suppositions. You are quite a way out on what is actually happening on the ground but I can see you're having fun.

 

Enjoy.

[tomazbodner]

Apparently first death in Hong Kong...

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-hong-kong-death-china-infection-toll-12388372?cid=FBcna

[tomazbodner]

7 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Well, being here in China, I'll leave you boys to your spreadsheets and suppositions. You are quite a way out on what is actually happening on the ground but I can see you're having fun.

 

Enjoy.

Not really enjoying it. But anything outside official figures is branded fake news. However, being there - could you provide us update on what's happening on the ground; and more importantly - stay safe!

 

[zydeco]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

Well, being here in China, I'll leave you boys to your spreadsheets and suppositions. You are quite a way out on what is actually happening on the ground but I can see you're having fun.

 

Enjoy.

How many hazmat suits in your closet?