Coronavirus outbreak to hit many sectors of Thai economy

By Wichit Chaitrong
The Nation

 

Foreign tourists in Bangkok February 2, 2020 photo taken by Anant Chantarasoot /NationPhoto

 

The increasing number of new coronavirus cases is expected to take a toll on the Thai economy, with not just tourism but manufacturing, exports, retail and agricultural sectors also feeling the pinch, an economist warned while calling on the central bank to cut its key policy rate to shore up the economy.

 

Anusorn Tamajai, director of the Economic and Business Research Centre at Rangsit University, warned that the impact of the coronavirus outbreak is expected to be significant as countries close borders, impose travel restrictions and businesses shut down factories in an attempt to contain the spread of China’s new coronavirus.

 

The death toll has crossed 300 while more than 14,000 patients worldwide are infected by the virus.

 

The impact will go beyond the tourism industry to manufacturing, exports and the agricultural sectors. It is likely to alter the global geopolitical setting, he warned.

 

Thailand exports agricultural products worth Bt900 billion to China annually. The impact of the virus outbreak is expected to reduce these exports by 1 to 2 per cent, he said. Five major farm products are: fresh, frozen and dried fruit worth Bt65.5 billion; rubber products worth Bt50.1 billion; tapioca products worth Bt42.3 billion; rice worth Bt9.3 billion and frozen chicken worth Bt6.9 billion. The anticipated export slowdown is expected to depress the prices of some farm products in the next few months, he noted.

 

As multinational firms close their plants and offices in China, the impact would be felt by supply chains worldwide in the fields of high-tech, electronics, auto and parts. For example, iPhone has announced the launch of a new mobile phone model. Import of raw materials in Thailand are also adversely affected and some factories have temporarily closed operations in Thailand. For example Sica New Materials (Thailand) has shuttered its plant in Thailand without advance notice or compensation to workers, he pointed out.

 

Retail businesses in Thailand would also be adversely affected, but e-commerce trade and logistics may expand, he said.

 

To shore up the Thai economy, the central bank would need to lower its policy rate to 1 per cent from 1.25 per cent currently, he said, pointing to the meeting of the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee this week.

 

He suggested that the Thai government may need to require Chinese tourists to apply for visas, which would let the authorities consider whether a particular tourist should be allowed to visit the country. Due to the delicate situation, travel restriction measures will likely impact relationships between countries, he acknowledged. An estimated million people are locked down in China and a lot of people may be angry with the Chinese government, he said.

 

The United States, Australia and Singapore have banned foreign nationals who have visited China in the past 14 days from entering their countries while Japan has banned foreigners who have visited Hubei province in China from entry into the country. 

 

The World Health Organisation (WHO), however, has warned that travel bans will disrupt the global economy. The WHO, which on Thursday announced the outbreak of a global health emergency, also warned that a travel ban may not be effective in combating the coronavirus from spreading and people may go underground. It suggested that countries step up screening people to find infected people rather than imposing entry bans.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30381466?

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-02-03

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12 minutes ago, webfact said:

He suggested that the Thai government may need to require Chinese tourists to apply for visas, which would let the authorities consider whether a particular tourist should be allowed to visit the country. 

Have to present a negative Corona test or a positive wallet test?

Eggs and baskets spring to mind

30 minutes ago, webfact said:

The WHO, which on Thursday announced the outbreak of a global health emergency, also warned that a travel ban may not be effective in combating the coronavirus from spreading and people may go underground.

The WHO is trying to protect itself from finger pointing in the aftermath when the national economy of some countries starts diving.

Shanghai stock market down nearly 9% trading suspended. There is going to be a bloodbath in the global exchanges as everybody heads for the exits. Maybe the bubble economics everywhere is about to spectacularly burst. 

 

https://apnews.com/fa331df3dd912684fe8ead6f9bedc140

shanghai 9% down but not suspended

If the usurpers don't close the traffic from China, others will close traffic to and from Thailand. Then it'll really hurt.

1 hour ago, webfact said:

To shore up the Thai economy, the central bank would need to lower its policy rate to 1 per cent from 1.25 per cent currently, he said, pointing to the meeting of the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee this week.

Which, in theory, would cause the THB to weaken even further against most Western currencies than the declines which have been witnessed on the foreign exchanges these past few days.

 

But, this being Thailand, of course, any rate cut of 0.25% could equally likely result in the THB's value soaring!

Has the Thai prime minister asked himself, if he doesn't shut out the Chinese, will others who intend coming to Thailand, come, knowing that the Chinese are free to travel to Thailand, Coronavirus or not.

 

I for one know a few blokes who have postponed and are waiting to see if it spreads and if the PM digs his heels in.

 

This DH has to understand, the majority of Thai's want protection, and if he cannot protect his people from allowing the Chinese to enter Thailand, he will have his day.

 

Thailand was already suffering before the virus outbreak. 

How hard this will hit the economy going forward, all depends on Thailands ability to contain this. Looking at how this have spread in e.g. Germany (from person to person), I fear Thailand has many more infected than they know/tell about. They are also extremely slow to get their possible cases tested it seems. I simply can not see how they can have stopped outbreaks here, with the amounts of Chinese they have let in, compared to other countries.

 

Thailands reaction to this virus, very much looks like a copy of how China handled this in the beginning, before they decided on the lock-downs and the numbers went crazy. Sad for the country and its people. It is going to take a very long time to get over this.
 

Edited February 3, 20206 yr by khunpa

5 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Has the Thai prime minister asked himself, if he doesn't shut out the Chinese, will others who intend coming to Thailand, come, knowing that the Chinese are free to travel to Thailand, Coronavirus or not.

 

I for one know a few blokes who have postponed and are waiting to see if it spreads and if the PM digs his heels in.

 

This DH has to understand, the majority of Thai's want protection, and if he cannot protect his people from allowing the Chinese to enter Thailand, he will have his day.

 

I worry it is already too late for Thailand to contain this. 

Edited February 3, 20206 yr by khunpa

26 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

If the usurpers don't close the traffic from China, others will close traffic to and from Thailand. Then it'll really hurt.

 

True, but until then there is a chance to get a bit of money out of the last tourist.

 

Money in hand now, is always best. Other problems, can be "fixed" as they turn up. (mainly by finding someone to blame for that)

5 minutes ago, khunpa said:

I worry it is already too late for Thailand to contain this. 

But they have found a cure, if you can believe that ????

 

"I'm not wearing a mask, but maybe I should be wearing a bra."

 

5 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

"I'm not wearing a mask, but maybe I should be wearing a bra."

 

"Moobs" doesn't have a care in the world.

36 minutes ago, khunpa said:

I worry it is already too late for Thailand to contain this. 

Maybe it is already too late. But keep on posting -- that way we'll know you're not dead yet.

https://www.ghsindex.org/

2019 Global Health Security Index

The GHS Index is the first comprehensive assessment of global health security capabilities in 195 countries.

 

https://www.ghsindex.org/country/thailand/

2019 GHS Index Country Profile for Thailand

Thailand Overall........Most Prepared

 

Overall Rank

Prevent 3 (of 195)

Detect 15 (ditto)

Respond 5

Health 2

 

Rank for: Region Southeastern Asia 1 / 11

Population 50-100m 2 / 15

 

Respond Indicators Rank

Emergency preparedness and response planning 3 / 195

 

Health Indicators

Health capacity in clinics, hospitals and community care centres

31 / 195

 

Healthcare access rank 1

 

Country Comparison

Thailand

Overall 6.0

Prevent 3.0

Detect 15.0

Respond 5.0

Health 2.0

Who supplies the raw data to GHS? TAT?

absolutely...it will cripple the world.  Only good thing is the equity markets will bleed red offering me wonderful opportunities to buy stocks in order to position myself and make massive amounts of cash when markets rebound. 

46 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Who supplies the raw data to GHS? TAT?

https://www.ghsindex.org/about/

The GHS Index is a project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU) and was developed with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)....to address one of the world’s most omnipresent risks: infectious disease outbreaks that can lead to international epidemics and pandemics.

 

The GHS Index relies entirely on open-source information: data that a country has published on its own or has reported to or been reported by an international entity.

 

https://www.ghsindex.org/data-stories/thailand-an-exemplar/

Thailand: An Exemplar

Thailand is the only middle-income country to score in the highest tier ... receiving the sixth-highest overall score (73.2). Thailand is also the only country from the WHO South-East Asia Region to rank in the top tier. What makes Thailand such a strong performer? The country shows robust healthcare capacities, ranking second across all nations for indicators relating to healthcare access. Relevant to its ability to identify and stop infectious diseases like MERS, Thailand also demonstrates an effective system for monitoring and tracking healthcare-associated infections....

 

Beyond its health system, Thailand has a strong field epidemiology training program and national laboratory system, scoring in the top tier for indicators of these capacities and demonstrating a robust electronic reporting surveillance system that functions at both national and subnational levels, rapidly collecting laboratory and epidemiological information. Thailand also demonstrates strength on prevention and response capability...

 

The GHS Index shows that Thailand is, beyond a doubt, an international leader in health security.

Edited February 3, 20206 yr by thaicurious

Maybe Thailand could live up to it's reputation as an advanced world class medical hub, by opening it's hospitals to the treatment of foreign Corona patients.

 

Seems like China will not have enough beds soon, as the virus is now rapidly ramping up. I read yesterday that the transmission rate has accelerated past 4:1 already.

That could somewhat supplement the losses from the tourism & export sectors.   I can imagine this will be floated by someone at a high level fairly soon.

 

1 hour ago, thaicurious said:

The GHS Index relies entirely on open-source information: data that a country has published on its own or has reported to or been reported by an international entity.

And which Thai government entity or international entity produced the raw data for Thailand?

 

Per chance the same one that coughs up the unemployment figures? The Ministry of Truth?

 

Quote

Relevant to its ability to identify and stop infectious diseases like MERS, Thailand

Sure, the backlog was only 405 pending, growing hand in hand with suspected. Maybe 5-10 diagnosis made per day.

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

 

I'll call BS on the GHS Index.

Edited February 3, 20206 yr by DrTuner

The sky is falling full of Chinese dropping from the sky in there Chinese airlines bringing with them there 20 bhat spending monies along with this virous 

3 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Has the Thai prime minister asked himself, if he doesn't shut out the Chinese, will others who intend coming to Thailand, come, knowing that the Chinese are free to travel to Thailand, Coronavirus or not.

 

I for one know a few blokes who have postponed and are waiting to see if it spreads and if the PM digs his heels in.

 

This DH has to understand, the majority of Thai's want protection, and if he cannot protect his people from allowing the Chinese to enter Thailand, he will have his day.

 

Even after this Corona Virus Outbreak has been declared " safe ". many Tourists from all over the World will be extremely cautious over planting their feet on Thai soil.

The Country is being perceived as being " irresponsible " by many over its handling of the Corona Virus situation. By allowing Chinese Tourists into the Kingdom during this outbreak, the Government are being seen as money grabbing, putting Money before the lives of People, whether they are Thai, Chinese or from other Nations.

The Government have already made their case clear and Tourists will make their case clear in the future, specially if the Chinese Tourists are back in droves.

 

18 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

Even after this Corona Virus Outbreak has been declared " safe ". many Tourists from all over the World will be extremely cautious over planting their feet on Thai soil.

The Country is being perceived as being " irresponsible " by many over its handling of the Corona Virus situation. By allowing Chinese Tourists into the Kingdom during this outbreak, the Government are being seen as money grabbing, putting Money before the lives of People, whether they are Thai, Chinese or from other Nations.

The Government have already made their case clear and Tourists will make their case clear in the future, specially if the Chinese Tourists are back in droves.

 

I hope that is the case, but as they would say, "up to you", lose of face is bigger than anything this side of Thailand.

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Anusorn Tamajai, director of the Economic and Business Research Centre at Rangsit University, warned that the impact of the coronavirus outbreak is expected to be significant as countries close borders, impose travel restrictions and businesses shut down factories in an attempt to contain the spread of China’s new coronavirus.

Thailands economy in tatters because of Uncle Tu's close relationship with all things China...

experience tells you to spread your interests and diversify... but then again what experience has the great PM got or his lackeys?

that would be nice ... no more landing rights for THAI planes

as if the strong THb wasnt enough. People in the tourism industry, everywhere in the world, not only Thailand, are up for a very rough year ahead. 

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

Thailands economy in tatters because of Uncle Tu's close relationship with all things China...

experience tells you to spread your interests and diversify... but then again what experience has the great PM got or his lackeys?

Hard to diversify when the only one who doesn't care about you keeping a country hostage are the commies.

5 hours ago, khunpa said:

Thailand was already suffering before the virus outbreak. 

How hard this will hit the economy going forward, all depends on Thailands ability to contain this. Looking at how this have spread in e.g. Germany (from person to person), I fear Thailand has many more infected than they know/tell about. They are also extremely slow to get their possible cases tested it seems. I simply can not see how they can have stopped outbreaks here, with the amounts of Chinese they have let in, compared to other countries.

 

Thailands reaction to this virus, very much looks like a copy of how China handled this in the beginning, before they decided on the lock-downs and the numbers went crazy. Sad for the country and its people. It is going to take a very long time to get over this.
 

Couldn't have put it better myself, great post....