Virologist says measures must be implemented for one year to address coronavirus

[WaveHunter]

3 hours ago, morrobay said:

Most here probably know the RO is an exponent. If the average generation/infection period is 2 days then in one month with RO 1.3  the infections = 15^1.3 = 33. I f the RO is 3 then 15^3 = 3375 

Thanks @morrobay, you made it a lot clearer, and significantly more impressive than I did, and with far less words.  33 vs 3375...big difference!  Kudos to you ????

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by WaveHunter

[morrobay]

8 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Thanks @morrobay, you made it a lot clearer, and significantly more impressive than I did, and with far less words.  33 vs 3375...big difference!  Kudos to you ????

 

Well going from the R0 = 3 diagram in your post #17 the R0 is a base not an exponent as I incorrectly said. As can be seen in that very clear diagram the R0 3 is being raised progressively with each generation: 3, 3^2, and then if continued 3^3, 3^4... 

[morrobay]

The bad news here is that 3^15  (R0) 3   at 15th generation is very much more than 15^3. (Where i incorrectly said the RO was an exponent  of the generation. Also on that informative post#17 It states that  the doubling (R0=2)  time for the epidemic cases is 6.4 days, That means in 64 days for example there would be 10 generations (infection periods) and the total cases would be 2^10 = 1024.   . So these are just the pure mechanical numbers possible . An epidemiologist would add information to this .

[WaveHunter]

2 hours ago, morrobay said:

Well going from the R0 = 3 diagram in your post #17 the R0 is a base not an exponent as I incorrectly said. As can be seen in that very clear diagram the R0 3 is being raised progressively with each generation: 3, 3^2, and then if continued 3^3, 3^4... 

If more people appreciated the significance of R0 (R-Naught), they would realize how serious nCoV is, and stop downplaying the possibility of a major pandemic occurring. 

 

All it takes is one infected person to create 9 new infections.

 

In pictorial terms this is what R0=3 (epidemic) looks like, and what R0=1 (endemic):

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

18 minutes ago, morrobay said:

The bad news here is that 3^15  (R0) 3   at 15th generation is very much more than 15^3. (Where i incorrectly said the RO was an exponent  of the generation. Also on that informative post#17 It states that  the doubling (R0=2)  time for the epidemic cases is 6.4 days, That means in 64 days for example there would be 10 generations (infection periods) and the total cases would be 2^10 = 1024.   . So these are just the pure mechanical numbers possible . An epidemiologist would add information to this .

Because the number of deaths compared to confirmed cases is relatively low, people seem lulled into the belief that there is nothing to be real concerned regarding this virus; that most people will probably recover if they are young and in good health, BUT they fail to take into account another statistic and that is the Serious Complication Rate (SCR) of this virus, which is proving to be around 20%

 

That's what I find scary.  If the actual number of those infected (yet not yet confirmed) is around 75,000 in Wuhan alone (which computer modelling reported in The Lancet is suggesting), once those start becoming confirmed cases, the resulting 20% of those that will require ICU care will skyrocket thus overwhelming the medical infrastructure, irregardless of the new hospitals being built.  ICU cases will exceed the number of ICU beds available, and that is when the death rate will start rapidly climbing.

 

I'm not saying this to be an alarmist or scare-monger; I am just saying it as a realist, and irregardless of the present success of containment in countries outside of China, that does not mean an outbreak can not occur in those countries.

 

I'm not saying people should freak out, but they should be informed.  Some people will ask why does it matter to know?  What can they do about it?  Well, just the simplest things like washing your hands, using masks to prevent touching your face, trying to keep your distance from strangers when in crowds can make all the difference...but if you are not aware of the real dangers, you won't take these things seriously.

 

So, that's why I post...just to help people be aware that this is a much more serious situation then they are being led to believe by mainstream media.

Edited February 7, 2020 by WaveHunter

[rabas]

The other thing about R0 is that it depends on many factors. If you lock someone is a steel safe, R0 goes to 0. At Chaengwattana Immigration R0 may approach 1 zillion especially for those who failed to file TM30, your contact time sky-rockets. Seriously, do 90 day via the mail or Internet.

 

[WaveHunter]

JUST A NOTE OF SADNESS:  The Chinese doctor in Wuhan who was one of the first to try and get the word out through his social media account (WeChat) about how serious this virus actually is,  back in early December, and essentially silenced by the government for "disrupting the harmony of the People", has just died from nCoV. 

 

He was a 34-year-old ophthalmologist who first came in contact with the virus, after treating a glaucoma patient who at the time was not aware that he had already been infected with the deadly virus.

 

Dr. Li Wenliang, as well as many other brave doctors and journalists who tried to get the truth out in the early stages of this outbreak (and many still continue to do so) should all be considered brave heroes. 

 

Had Government officials taken him and the others seriously back in December instead of censoring them and even threatening arrest under the "Rumors Law", this crisis could likely have been averted.

 

RIP Dr Wenliang

 

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

44 minutes ago, rabas said:

...for those who failed to file TM30, your contact time sky-rockets. Seriously, do 90 day via the mail or Internet...

Yes!  I can't think of a more likely place (except for a hospital perhaps) to pick up a virus than having to visit an Immigration office in Thailand.

 

As a matter of fact, I had to visit the Imm office in Jomtien back in September and a  few days later I came down with a case of the flu.  I can't say it was a result of visiting Imm, but I suspect it was.

 

Had that happened now, instead of back in September I would be freaking out big time! 

 

Staying away from crowded and poorly ventilated places like Imm where lots of foreigners are jammed in shoulder-to-shoulder, if you can avoid it, only makes sense.  Filing online with Imm is definitely the way to go while this outbreak is active...no question!

Edited February 7, 2020 by WaveHunter

[ThaiBunny]

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

As a matter of fact, I had to visit the Imm office in Jomtien back in September and a  few days later I came down with a case of the flu.  I can't say it was a result of visiting Imm, but I suspect it was.

 

[WaveHunter]

30 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

 

Isn't that what I said?  Or do you just like posting cartoons?  I admit it's a pretty good one but I can't figure out what's up with the little girl with her finger on the remote and that sly look on her face LOL.

Edited February 7, 2020 by WaveHunter

[TheAppletons]

14 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Isn't that what I said?  Or do you just like posting cartoons?  I admit it's a pretty good one but I can't figure out what's up with the little girl with her finger on the remote and that look on her face LOL.

I think you said the opposite:

 

"Yes!  I can't think of a more likely place (except for a hospital perhaps) to pick up a virus than having to visit an Immigration office in Thailand.

 

As a matter of fact, I had to visit the Imm office in Jomtien back in September and a  few days later I came down with a case of the flu.  I can't say it was a result of visiting Imm, but I suspect it was."

 

Anyway, regarding the cartoon....as I interpret it, each child was holding a video game controller (note the "box" attached to the TV screen) and as the girl still holds one in her hands the parent is concluding the other child caused the damage with his video controller.  

 

(Why am I explaining cartoons posted on the internet?)

Edited February 7, 2020 by TheAppletons

[WaveHunter]

15 minutes ago, TheAppletons said:

I think you said the opposite:

 

"Yes!  I can't think of a more likely place (except for a hospital perhaps) to pick up a virus than having to visit an Immigration office in Thailand.

 

As a matter of fact, I had to visit the Imm office in Jomtien back in September and a  few days later I came down with a case of the flu.  I can't say it was a result of visiting Imm, but I suspect it was."

 

Anyway, regarding the cartoon....as I interpret it, each child was holding a video game controller (note the "box" attached to the TV screen) and as the girl still holds one in her hands the parent is concluding the other child caused the damage with his video controller.  

 

(Why am I explaining cartoons posted on the internet?)

The key phrase was "I CAN'T say it was"  The reason I suspect it "might" have been is because I have not had the flu or even the common cold in YEARS, and then a few days after visiting IMM, I get a real bad case of the flu.  Perhaps a coincidence; perhaps not.

 

Anyone familiar with the Jomtien IMM office would have the same suspicion.  I am familiar with several provincial IMM offices and Jomtien is by far the worst in terms of small space and poor ventilation where hundreds of strangers are standing shoulder-to-shoulder with big fans blowing air all over the place, and you're stuck in this hellish environment for an hour or even longer. 

Edited February 7, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

On 2/5/2020 at 12:20 PM, WaveHunter said:

REGARDING DEATH RATE for nCoV:  A lot of misinformation is going around about "death rate" figures.  Again for those who keep harping on a specific death rate figure for nCoV, there is no valid number right now since it requires comparing actual deaths against the number of confirmed cases, and that is not possible to do in an ongoing outbreak involving incubation lag time.

 

However, it is possible to correlate Serious Complication cases (i.e.: those with pneumonia and/or ARDS) with deaths.  The most valid study to date is this one (published on Lancet):

 

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study

 

Again, the death rate discussed here is NOT the mortality rate of those infected; it is the % chance of mortality of those who have gone to to develop serious complications requiring ICU care (i.e.: pneumonia and ARDS), which in the case of nCoV appears to be about 20% of those confirmed to be infected.

 

SInce this new 99 case study is more granular than the previous 41 case study which showed a 15% mortality rate, the 11% mortality found in the 99 case study is probably more indicative of predictive mortality rate based on the scoring system that was assigned.

 

The clinical features that predict mortality are discussed and this scoring system has been assigned (MuLBSTA Score).  Each clinical feature is given a score and the combined total score gave a prediction of mortality rate. 

 

The clinical features and assigned scores were:

• Both lungs involved - 5 points
• Lymphocytes < 0.8 - 4 points
• Bacterial co-infection - 4 points
• Acute Smoker (active smoker) - 3 points
• Quit Smoker (former smoker) - 2 points
• Hypertension - 2 points
• Age > 60 - 2 points

Total Score and Mortality Rate:

• A score of 0 indicates chance of mortality at 0.47%
• A score of 6 was 2.9%
• A score of 12 was 15%
• A score  22 points was greater than 69% mortality rate

 

I made a misleading typo in this post in describing Test Scoring.  It should have read:

 

Total Score and Chance of Mortality:

• A score of 0 indicates chance of mortality at 0.47%
• A score of 6 was 2.9% chance of mortality
• A score of 12 was 15% chance of mortality
• A score  22 points was greater than 69% chance of mortality.

Sorry about that ????

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by WaveHunter