Economy may grow more than 3 per cent next year, says BOT

By The Nation

 

BOT Senior Director of Economic and Policy Department, Don Nakornthab

 

Outbreak of the coronavirus will deal a heavy blow to the Thai economy in the first quarter but a gradually recovery is expected and could lead to growth of above 3 per cent next year.

 

Bank of Thailand (BOT) said impact of coronavirus outbreak would be the hardest in the first quarter while reassuring that the economy would expand by 3 per cent next year.

 

BOT Senior Director of Economic and Policy Department, Don Nakornthab said on Monday (February 17) that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth stood at 2.4 per cent in the last quarter of 2019 , while the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) put GDP expansion at 1.5-2.5 per cent this year.

 

“NESDC 's projection was lower than BOT's estimation,” he added. “BOT estimated GDP growth in the fourth quarter at 2.5 per cent, and at 2.8 per cent this year”.

 

“Thailand's economy fell sharply, mainly due to drought and delay of the fiscal 2020 budget,” he said.

 

Moreover, Don added that the coronavirus outbreak was beyond the expectations of all parties.

 

At the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on February 5, it was agreed that the Thai economy this year would expand lower than the BOT's estimate. "Thus, the committee decided to cut policy rate to its lowest level of 1 per cent,” Don said.

 

BOT will release latest projections of the economy on March 25. It will closely monitor the virus situation as it is a significant factor dampening economic expansion.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30382297

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-02-18

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Growth! Growth! The catch cry of the economist.

 

Given that even TAT are admitting that tourism (10-20% of GDP) is down 50%, the growth prediction is a little self serving as next year some or most of the tourists will have returned and the economy will grow relative to the poor year this year. 

 

This bloke is looking like he wants to take a position on the TAT board.

4 minutes ago, Chang_paarp said:

Growth! Growth! The catch cry of the economist.

 

Given that even TAT are admitting that tourism (10-20% of GDP) is down 50%, the growth prediction is a little self serving as next year some or most of the tourists will have returned and the economy will grow relative to the poor year this year. 

 

This bloke is looking like he wants to take a position on the TAT board.

You are correct. It is a safe prediction given the blow they will experience this year.

I have also lowered my expectation of winning the lottery 3 times this year but could win it 2 times and become rich beyond my wildest dreams!

Over optimistic as usual, they think everything will be back to normal next year..... need to rethink again. 

Sure itll grow by 3% next year.. its contracting double that this year.. so getting back 50% losses would only be a net loss of 50% ... ya dig ?  

Give it a month or 2, same guy giving a revised forecast.

At the start of any journey there is hope.  And thus it is for the annual ritual of deflating predictions of Thai economic growth.

4 hours ago, webfact said:

while reassuring that the economy would expand by 3 per cent next year.

Actually as funny as this seems on first reading, it is probably true. If the Thai economy goes down the pan this year like toilet duck, achieving a 3% growth on a previously bad year (2020) 'may' well be achievable next. 

4 hours ago, Chang_paarp said:

the growth prediction is a little self serving

Growth predictions are worth nothing as there are so many factors , ( Viruses , natural disasters caused by climate change ) , that they cannot calculate .

5 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Actually as funny as this seems on first reading, it is probably true. If the Thai economy goes down the pan this year like toilet duck, achieving a 3% growth on a previously bad year (2020) 'may' well be achievable next. 

  Unfortunately, economic cycles rarely move in quick bursts.  They tend to move slowly in one direction for a prolonged period of time.  

Economists, clairvoyance..same same.

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Actually as funny as this seems on first reading, it is probably true. If the Thai economy goes down the pan this year like toilet duck, achieving a 3% growth on a previously bad year (2020) 'may' well be achievable next. 

I agree, can also see some Chinese industry moving this way now that the frailty of the worlds designated factory has been revealed! The supply lines haven't been hit yet, that should be interesting once it starts!

Virus Turns Thai Firm Into World’s Top Asset Manager Stock

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/virus-turns-thai-firm-world-210000031.html

Or just the opposite if tourists decide to find a place where safety isn't a word only. 

.....and where hospitality doesn't mean grabbing money as much as you can out of tourist's pockets. ????

10 hours ago, Chang_paarp said:

Growth! Growth! The catch cry of the economist.

 

Given that even TAT are admitting that tourism (10-20% of GDP) is down 50%, the growth prediction is a little self serving as next year some or most of the tourists will have returned and the economy will grow relative to the poor year this year. 

 

This bloke is looking like he wants to take a position on the TAT board.

Yes, the trick (and his job) is to provide conflicting information. So there have naturally been conflicting predictions about the economy.

 

It's the mushroom principle - keep 'em in the dark and shovel the occasional sh|tstorm over them. Combine that with the old IBM principle of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), and you have the foolproof policy employed by this government and it's lackeys.

 

Note the words in the homily: might, could, may. All to cast the deniability spell so beloved of crooked governments everywhere.

 

 

Edited February 18, 20206 yr by ParkerN

First how can anyone truly believe any figures that are produced from figures given by a government or its departments when you see bills being passed by said government by 99% majority with the token abstain vote. I prefer to use my eyes and ears with some common sence. Thailand went into its nose dive when the military moved in. Shocking figures are whitewashed over like foreign investment leaving with might and could. When factories were being reported as closing only a few weeks ago now these stories have disappeared and replaced with stories of might, could or may. A photo which is obviously old showing lots of people on the beach yet people don't see all the sun loungers that were removed from the beaches years ago (one of the militaries first disasters sorry accomplishments along with lotto ticket prices sort of for a few months sorted at 80baht. I'm surprised the people consuming the spin can walk straight after reading it. 

13 hours ago, webfact said:

Economy may grow more than 3 per cent next year, says BOT

TAT, BOT and all the others play continuously with dreamed numbers, 2020 has just started and already play with the "income" of 2021 ...

In BOT we trust..

Well, here we go again.  Chinese Yuan up a little—USD down a little.

Perhaps they misplaced a minus sign in front of that 3%...

3% will be the half of Laos´, Cambodia´s and Vietnam´ growth. Not so impressive.

Wishful thinking, Mr. Don Nakornthab

How is it some people avoid jail when spreading fake news ????

19 hours ago, CGW said:

The supply lines haven't been hit yet, that should be interesting once it starts!

 

It has already started; many factories in Thailand have closed due to the lack of spare parts supply from China.
But that, the Thai people of this forum who are in denial will not come to write to us.
No need for links, just read the news from different media around the world.
You should know that the Chinese authorities have severely reinforced the containment of around 50 million people;
there are therefore very many Chinese factories that are no longer functioning, their workers are homebound.
50 million people who worked almost all; it is more than the work force of Thailand, a country which depends exclusively on China for the supply of very many factories.
We are witnessing the beginning of the industrial debacle in Thailand which has never been able to create something by itself for itself.
Even the butter cutting line was not invented in Thailand!