COVID-19: Half a million people visited Thailand from severely affected countries

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 3/8/2020 at 5:31 PM, mrfill said:

Singapore are testing more people so are finding more cases. Same happening in UK and Iran. Complete opposite in other countries.

Number of tests and positivity rate for Covid-19 as of Feb. 26

•  
• UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate). [source]
• Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 470 positive, awaiting results: unknown (at least 5.0% positivity rate). [source]
• France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive, 179 awaiting results (at least 2.2% positivity rate). [source]
• Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive, awaiting results: unknown (at least 0.6% positivity rate). [source]
• South Korea: 66,652 tests with 1766 positives 25,568 awaiting results (4.3% positivity rate). [source]
• United States: 445 concluded tests, of which 14 positive (3.1% positivity rate). [source]

Table from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

No great surprise that countries like UK, Italy and S Korea find more infections - they are looking closer!

Can we trust the above numbers?

Now that the Scandinavian countries are starting to show some cases we might have transparent data, and it is might be scary.

Denmark: 1,119 tested and 90 confirmed cases. 8.0% positivity rate.

 

https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/sygdomsudbrud/coronavirus

[overherebc]

On 3/9/2020 at 6:38 AM, spiekerjozef said:

All politicians are unqualified or did you ever hear of a school where you can get a degree as politician?

So why we let these unqualified penguins run our countries?

In UK we have a chief medical officer who is very highly qualified in the virus and bacteria fields. He advises the Health Minister on all these matters before he can spout off.

A few other countries have this

[Virt]

3 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Can we trust the above numbers?

Now that the Scandinavian countries are starting to show some cases we might have transparent data, and it is might be scary.

Denmark: 1,119 tested and 90 confirmed cases. 8.0% positivity rate.

 

https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/sygdomsudbrud/coronavirus

Denmark climbed to 113 this morning. I actually don't mistrust the numbers from my own government, but I'm not sure they handled it correctly. The other day a plane full of Italians landed in copenhagen and without any checks or anything they were let into the public. 

 

I would have thought that passengers from Italy which is going through quite some crisis, had to go to some sort of checks or quarantine. 

 

Also had a case in Denmark where 2 people travelled to Madeira, when they were supposed to stay quarantined as one of their family member was down with Corona.

They can now sit in quarantine in Portugal instead.

Not to smart and I hope they end up paying for the entire bill themselves. 

Maybe quarantined persons should be registered in systems so they couldn't leave the country where they are supposed to be quarantined in. 

 

I wonder if Denmark will keep trusting the numbers from Thailand since Thailand is not on the high risk list yet, but I would assume Thailand put Denmark on the list if numbers keep rising. 

 

Things are allready ugly in Italy and I trust their numbers. Doctors there now discussing if they should implement age requirements, so they put the people in the hospital which has a better chance to survive, compared to the old and weak. 

Not a pretty situation to be in, and must be heart breakening for the medical staff if implemented because of shortage of beds and equipment and staff. 

They hope the outbreak will start to decrease in 8 days time, but if not, new plans has to be made. 

 

Hopefully a vaccine can hit the market faster than normal. If not I wouldn't be surprised to see the outbreak decrease closer to the summertime and then return later in the winter.

[nrasmussen]

Here is an interesting recent paper that might explain why Thailand hasn't seen a huge increase in COVID-19 cases: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

 

However, please do take note of the disclaimer: "...although the current correlations with latitude and temperature seem strong, a direct causation has not been proven and predictions in the near term are speculative and have to be considered with extreme caution."

[DrTuner]

23 minutes ago, nrasmussen said:

Here is an interesting recent paper that might explain why Thailand hasn't seen a huge increase in COVID-19 cases: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

 

However, please do take note of the disclaimer: "...although the current correlations with latitude and temperature seem strong, a direct causation has not been proven and predictions in the near term are speculative and have to be considered with extreme caution."

Very interesting indeed, especially the map:

 

Not sure if the number of deaths is a good indicator though. If we had reliable diagnosis numbers they should be used instead. Unfortunately we don't.

 

[zydeco]

On 3/8/2020 at 1:22 PM, tuktuktuk said:

I think there is something to this.  Looking at the data that Johns Hopkins gathers it's amazing how some of the huge countries (by population) in Equatorial regions have so few cases - India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Brazil.  Maybe this one will decline in summer time like the flu often does.  I'm trying to look at the positive here.  Too many people telling us to be afraid.

So it's not as humid in Malaysia?

[nrasmussen]

5 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Very interesting indeed, especially the map:

 

Not sure if the number of deaths is a good indicator though. If we had reliable diagnosis numbers they should be used instead. Unfortunately we don't.

 

Well, I guess they had to use whatever data they had available. Hopefully we will eventually see some independent research into this.

 

Anyway, it's reassuring to see that the relatively low number of cases in Thailand may be due to completely natural causes, and not necessarily, as some posters on this forum like to claim, be due to some nefarious cover-up by the Thai authorities.

[DrTuner]

21 minutes ago, nrasmussen said:

Anyway, it's reassuring to see that the relatively low number of cases in Thailand may be due to completely natural causes, and not necessarily, as some posters on this forum like to claim, be due to some nefarious cover-up by the Thai authorities.

Bangkok is mentioned as an outlier in the paper. While temp may well be a factor, the figures are just way too off especially considering Bangkok was the #1 riskiest route outside China when Chinese were still flying from Wuhan.

[Virt]

Denmark raised their number once again and at 156 cases atm. Quite are steep rise in the last 5 days. 

 

Talked to some coworkers at the medical company I work for in Denmark, before I was heading to Thailand and told them I was more worried catching the virus in Europe compared to getting it here in Thailand and seems like the statistics are climbing fast in Europe since I flew out Friday.

 

Maybe a good time to be in Thailand compared to Europe if the theory about the virus not surviving so long on surfaces due to temperature and UV 11 + 

No idea, but time will tell. 

 

If I however get infected by the virus I would prefer it happened in Denmark so I maybe could self quarantine in my own home if not needing a hospital. Not to sure how I would feel getting quarantined here. 

 

 

[raccos21]

[Jimbo53]

On 3/10/2020 at 4:15 AM, ExpatOilWorker said:

Good point, but where are the bodies?

Maybe they should be testing the Crocs at the Crocodile Farms!!!

[SupermarineS6B]

22 hours ago, zydeco said:

So it's not as humid in Malaysia?

Malaysia 80 odd cases already, as for humid, the moment you walk outside it's like having a sauna with your clothes on ........