Tourist arrivals could be 10 million below estimates

By THE NATION

 

 

Thailand could lose almost 10 million foreign tourists in a worst-case scenario if the Covid-19 outbreak is not contained soon, Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) governor Yutthasak Supasorn said.

 

“Currently the TAT is estimating total foreign tourists in 2020 at 34.2 million, down 5.6 million from last year’s 39.8 million, which is considered a best-case scenario amid the Covid-19 outbreak,” he said.

 

“In the worst case, the number could fall to 30 million foreign tourists or about 10 million lower than last year.

 

“As for revenue from foreign tourists, we estimate Bt1.5 billion this year, or about three-quarters of last year’s total revenue,” he added.

 

The governor said that TAT was 70 per cent confident of its best-case scenario projection materialising.

 

“We believe that the outbreak could be controlled by the end of March, which means April could be the lowest point for foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand,” he said. “After that the number will start growing again by July. However, if the lowest point is delayed to May, it would take at least three months or until September to see an increase in the number of tourists again.”

 

The TAT survey found that from January 25 to February 29, the number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand decreased by 40 per cent compared to the same period last year, with more than 81 per cent of missing tourists being Chinese. “This is due to the Chinese government’s ban earlier this year on tour companies taking people out of the country,” he added.

 

Yutthasak also added that by the end of this week, TAT should have a conclusion on whether it should organise the Songkran Festival 2020.

 

“We will discuss with the private sector soon as there are public concerns about Covid-19 spreading by throwing water,” he said. “However, we still believe that the festival can be held by adjusting the form and focus on cultural aspects of Songkran.”

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30383749

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-03-10

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Given the TAT always puts a positive spin on things, I'd expect the drop to be much larger than 10 million.

Two of our guest arrived at the airport in HK only to find out it's now on the list of banned countries not allowed to board the plane

3 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

Two of our guest arrived at the airport in HK only to find out it's now on the list of banned countries not allowed to board the plane

Guests? You mean visitors from Thailand who now are stuck in Hongkong? So Thailand is on the ban list in Hongkong now?

How many of those "tourists" who arrive in Thailand left Thailand a day or an hour ago and are actually on a visa run?

I guess Thailand will love those visa run people in the moment. It makes the tourist arrival numbers look so much better.

18 minutes ago, webfact said:

The governor said that TAT was 70 per cent confident of its best-case scenario projection materialising.

Can't wait to be one month older !

7 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

How many of those "tourists" who arrive in Thailand left Thailand a day or an hour ago and are actually on a visa run?

I guess Thailand will love those visa run people in the moment. It makes the tourist arrival numbers look so much better.

Exactly, if you had done a visa run to HK yesterday and gone to the airport this morning in HK you are stuck there, wonderful!

8 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

How many of those "tourists" who arrive in Thailand left Thailand a day or an hour ago and are actually on a visa run?

I guess Thailand will love those visa run people in the moment. It makes the tourist arrival numbers look so much better.

No they will never show any thanks to the nasty westerners still here or the nasty visa run westerners......

do they teach about negative numbers in Thai schools?

More like 15 million and counting

2 hours ago, webfact said:

“We believe that the outbreak could be controlled by the end of March

TAT are probably the only organisation in the world that believe this. Three weeks?

 

Always the optimists.

2 hours ago, mstevens said:

Given the TAT always puts a positive spin on things, I'd expect the drop to be much larger than 10 million.

Arrivals will be 10 million, syrian refugees.

In the worst case, the number could fall to 30 million foreign tourists or about 10 million lower than last year.

 

Considering the outbreak is showing no signs of stopping then international tourism could be decimated for a long time to come. Experts have predicted the whole of 2020. Their estimate of 30M could be very wrong as a 'worst case'. 

Sustainable amount would be about 10M tourists. Needs to go a lot lower still.

It all depends on how far and how fast the virus spreads in other countries. If most places end up having to follow Italy's and China's examples then there won't be any tourists coming, period. The current indecision by the UK government over moving to the delay phase shows that these decisions aren't easy, even though the UK has been warned by the EU that it might be just 10 days away from Italy's current plight.

4 hours ago, webfact said:

“Currently the TAT is estimating total foreign tourists in 2020 at 34.2 million, down 5.6 million from last year’s 39.8 million, which is considered a best-case scenario amid the Covid-19 outbreak,” he said.

It makes no sense to get lost in predictions that are never right, start devising strategies to bring tourists back, you have enough time, don't give it away with dreams that turn into nightmares!

Wake up before the train has left ...

3 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

do they teach about negative numbers in Thai schools?

 

 

you are "reaching"

3 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

do they teach about negative numbers in Thai schools?

If it adds up to more than 8 fingers and 2 thumbs even the teachers are stumped !

Why stop at 10 million lets double the figure to enable some logical group not the sham government to re-invent the country. The economy, tourist facilities and support systems are a train wreck. With Songkran cancellations a good opportunity to CLEAN the place up, start with garbage that's left  anywhere it can be thrown.

“We believe that the outbreak could be controlled by the end of March . . .''

 

So that's all right then -- no problem!  Carry on as normal.

My flights out of Thailand have been cancelled so I’m stuck here spending money.  Good for Thailand.   

7 minutes ago, Airalee said:

My flights out of Thailand have been cancelled so I’m stuck here spending money.  Good for Thailand.   

two weeks ago i told everybody they needed to decide where they want to be to ride out the pandemic. Thailand or return/stay home. 

 

we are now approaching the time when returning to your home countries may not be possible.

 

good luck.

36 minutes ago, 30la said:

It makes no sense to get lost in predictions that are never right, start devising strategies to bring tourists back, you have enough time, don't give it away with dreams that turn into nightmares!

Wake up before the train has left ...

'Devising Strategies' will not be on the menu; they will expect people to return to the same old Thailand with all its faults !

 

30 million seems very optimistic at this point. 

It took the World the best part of 18 Months to regain full Tourism Etc after the Sars outbreak

Maybe thats some idea as to how long this thing could affect Tourism.

i reckon 90% of tourists will cancel holidays until this Corona is over, could take months then will restart with a trickle

I think that the tourist numbers will double or even triple!

 

Sure..I may not get many "likes" here but TAT will love me..????

Frankly if Thailand only gets away with a 10 million drop they'll have done remarkably well

I'm expecting around 18 Million possibly higher

Edited March 10, 20206 yr by Chivas

1 hour ago, 30la said:

It makes no sense to get lost in predictions that are never right, start devising strategies to bring tourists back, you have enough time, don't give it away with dreams that turn into nightmares!

Wake up before the train has left ...

This is exactly correct. Thailand should be less concerned with how far it will drop, and be focused on how to prime the pump once things turn around.

2 minutes ago, Chivas said:

Frankly if Thailand only gets away with a 10 million drop they'll have done remarkably well

I'm expecting around 18 Million possibly higher

25% seems indeed almost optimistic considering that during probably at least the first half of the year the industry seems decimated from what I can observe. I wouldn't be surprised of a drop of 40 percent or more.