Infections will skyrocket without social distancing, says official

[Phuketshrew]

17 minutes ago, rwill said:

Every day you have been alive on average over 1,000 people died from influenza complications.  Never did any one practice social distancing and wearing face masks all of the time.  Governments did not force businesses to close or restrict travel.  

In an earlier statement they said up to 300,000 people could get infected if the government did nothing.  That is only .5% of Thailand's population.  That means if the government did nothing and life went on as normal you would have a 99.5% chance of not getting infected.  And the figures in this article are way lower than that.

Unbelievable.

Educate yourself:

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

[alien365]

4 minutes ago, Mikeasq60 said:

Go about your daily lives and resume normal precautions thats what you do.

My father in law is 85, has one kidney and would likely stand no chance if people went about their daily lives.

[Mikeasq60]

2 minutes ago, alien365 said:

My father in law is 85, has one kidney and would likely stand no chance if people went about their daily lives.

Your father wouldnt stand a chance if he got a cold, your father is a sick man and he's elderly...understand.

[spidermike007]

These are just estimates. By people with very little experience in epidemiology. There seem to be hundreds of millions out there who are anticipating just such an event. The amount of panic and fear mongering I am seeing is unreasonable, inane and irresponsible. Take a deep breath. Do some meditation or yoga. Get a grip!

 

The zombie apocalypse, though predicted for decades now, will not happen. This too shall pass. Take some precautions, wear a good N95 mask when in crowds, or at the market, sanitize alot, and your chances of catching this thing are far smaller than your chances of getting mowed down by a car in NYC, or BKK, while crossing the street. 

[Mikeasq60]

Just now, spidermike007 said:

These are just estimates. By people with very little experience in epidemiology. There seem to be hundreds of millions out there who are anticipating just such an event. The amount of panic and fear mongering I am seeing is unreasonable, inane and irresponsible. Take a deep breath. Do some meditation or yoga. Get a grip!

 

The zombie apocalypse, though predicted for decades now, will not happen. This too shall pass. Take some precautions, wear a good N95 mask when in crowds, or at the market, sanitize alot, and your chances of catching this thing are far smaller than your chances of getting mowed down by a car in NYC, or BKK, while crossing the street. 

Their are sane people in Thailand, you think as I do. Thanks for your post.

[Mikeasq60]

24 minutes ago, alien365 said:

So what would you do?

Carry on with your life as normal, use normal precautions. If your sick go see a doctor...Hello! Good grief

[Miami007]

18 hours ago, Logosone said:

Too late.

 

The virus has long spread in large numbers in Thailand.

 

Social distancing will achieve nothing, except possibly, if done perfectly effect a very small slowing in transmission. That is all.

 

But any fantasy of containing the virus by lockdowns, travel restrictions, curfews and "social distancing" are just pure illusory beliefs. There is absolutely no hard data that shows social distancing can do anything else but achieve very small delays.

 

This study shows the whole isolation of Wuhan only bought the rest of China 3 days:

 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/25/science.abb4218

 in Europe and USA they admit that the gaol is to "flatten the curve", which means to slow the timeline of transmission to ensure that there are enough hospitalbeds for sick people.

It is not a reduction in the eventual number of infected people... just a delay.  

Isolation of infected cases and large scale testing to find positive people before they infect many others would be the recipe to reduce numbers. But the isolation would have to be real.. Not sending people home and let their families leave the house.

[thaiboss]

i am in nong chock bangkok every thing as before so many people out in street cars on roads  exept the school are closed construction of new village going on every thing is going on as normal.

local market as some distance beetween the booth sale . life as usual here. no may be people wear more face mask thats it

[Consummata Sunt]

19 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

They younger groups of Thai's don't seem to give a rats a$$ as we see groups of 20 or so drinking away, sad really, what happens when they go home and infect good old mum and dad or their grandparents and they pass away, hope it was all worth it then.

Unnecessary Thai bashing in a perilous time. Noted.

[Miami007]

11 minutes ago, Mikeasq60 said:

Carry on with your life as normal, use normal precautions. If your sick go see a doctor...Hello! Good grief

Well the issue is that there may not be a doctor available when you get sick.. either the doctor is sick or there are too many patients.

Most people will get through it without issues.. But old people are at risk (or people with other problems)

[Consummata Sunt]

19 hours ago, Logosone said:

Too late.

 

The virus has long spread in large numbers in Thailand.

 

Social distancing will achieve nothing, except possibly, if done perfectly effect a very small slowing in transmission. That is all.

 

But any fantasy of containing the virus by lockdowns, travel restrictions, curfews and "social distancing" are just pure illusory beliefs. There is absolutely no hard data that shows social distancing can do anything else but achieve very small delays.

 

This study shows the whole isolation of Wuhan only bought the rest of China 3 days:

 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/25/science.abb4218

Not true. A scare mongering post asking everyone to buck the conventional wisdom of health authority acrosd the globe. Sad.

[4MyEgo]

6 minutes ago, Consummata Sunt said:

Unnecessary Thai bashing in a perilous time. Noted.

FACT !

 

You should get out more often, has nothing to do with Thai bashing in any form.

 

Get a grip !

[RJRS1301]

2 hours ago, Surasak said:

Anyone know where I can get a Hazmat suit? I may need one when I have to go to immigration next. Last time I went, all the IO's were wearing masks and rubber gloves, with hand gel at the door. I wouldn't want to pass anything on. Or do I walk in calling "Unclean, Unclean"?

Dont forget the bell  ????

[Phuketshrew]

12 minutes ago, Consummata Sunt said:

Unnecessary Thai bashing in a perilous time. Noted.

Newbie Thai apologist joined the board, noted.

[metisdead]

Some troll posts have been removed:

 

11) You will not post slurs, degrading or overly negative comments directed towards Thailand, specific locations, Thai institutions such as the judicial or law enforcement system, Thai culture, Thai people or any other group on the basis of race, nationality, religion, gender or sexual orientation.
 

[AsiaCheese]

19 hours ago, Logosone said:

This study shows the whole isolation of Wuhan only bought the rest of China 3 days:

 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/25/science.abb4218

So what about this quote from the article:

"This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19."

[nomad2019]

Farangs are the worst offenders ive noticed.

They should be fined for not wearing facemasks and flouting safety regulations.

Good to see 2 metre rule going into big C today.

Im a foreigner btw ????

[Pancho]

The chit chat around the campfire is most of serious cases have underlying problems. My guess is cardio/pulmonary stuff, which causes significant issues in any case. 
This is a first for all of us. This is where the mixing of the cultures, which is historically a minefield here, gets amplified. We ( the old hands ) have learned how to navigate, now it’s time for our hosts to get clued in. When they all pull at the same end of the rope, I believe it will be impressive. I was in bkk for the 60th coronation , the level of humanity and compassion displayed for the King on that night, I haven’t seen since. Maybe this time.

[FarFlungFalang]

1 minute ago, nomad2019 said:

Farangs are the worst offenders ive noticed.

They should be fined for not wearing facemasks and flouting safety regulations.

Good to see 2 metre rule going into big C today.

Im a foreigner btw ????

No you're not a foreigner you are a Farang like those you say are the worst offenders.

[fredwiggy]

I'm 63, have exercised since 17 and ate exceptionally well all my life.Smoked weed occasionally through the years but stopped years ago.Only smoked a few cigarettes when I was 16.  Have had asthma occasionally when exercising but not chronic. Drink very little and I'm very worried because younger people have died.I know if you're in pretty good health you should not worry,but I do. Married here in southern Isaan with a 3 1/2 yr old daughter. I'm of course worried about them,but  I see my wife disregarding my plea to stay home today. She just had to go walk to mom's to talk. Mom is 63 and diabetic and there are 5 others living there,including 2 teens. I've tried to explain to her (she does understand english to some extent) that staying home is not only recommended by me, but now by Thai authorities,who have finally gotten on the ball,although a lock down is necessary. I told her that any one of the people at moms has many other contacts all over Thailand,and all it takes is one to infect everyone,to deaf ears. Showing true colors ,yes,but what can I do? My own country,America, is learning the hard way with trump dilly dallying to do anything,and thousands will pay. China,although we probably will never know the truth, at least put in place a lock down fairly swiftly. I'm sure many will live because of this. Here in my village, I see gatherings of 5 or more,all sitting close,no masks,sharing the same water glass and sticky rice. I've told Mom not to drink out of the family's communal cup.I think she understood a little, but sitting around with teens,who both don't care and aren't educated enough, is a risk I didn't want to see. I pray we all get through this,but staying away from each other will definitely give the hospitals a break until this eases off somewhat. I know they won't listen and a lot have to learn the hard way.

Edited March 28, 2020 by fredwiggy
Addition

[FarFlungFalang]

16 minutes ago, fredwiggy said:

I'm 63, have exercised since 17 and ate exceptionally well all my life.Smoked weed occasionally through the years but stopped years ago.Only smoked a few cigarettes when I was 16.  Have had asthma occasionally when exercising but not chronic. Drink very little and I'm very worried because younger people have died.I know if you're in pretty good health you should not worry,but I do. Married here in southern Isaan with a 3 1/2 yr old daughter. I'm of course worried about them,but  I see my wife disregarding my plea to stay home today. She just had to go walk to mom's to talk. Mom is 63 and diabetic and there are 5 others living there,including 2 teens. I've tried to explain to her (she does understand english to some extent) that staying home is not only recommended by me, but now by Thai authorities,who have finally gotten on the ball,although a lock down is necessary. I told her that any one of the people at moms has many other contacts all over Thailand,and all it takes is one to infect everyone,to deaf ears. Showing true colors ,yes,but what can I do? My own country,America, is learning the hard way with trump dilly dallying to do anything,and thousands will pay. China,although we probably will never know the truth, at least put in place a lock down fairly swiftly. I'm sure many will live because of this. Here in my village, I see gatherings of 5 or more,all sitting close,no masks,sharing the same water glass and sticky rice. I've told Mom not to drink out of the family's communal cup.I think she understood a little, but sitting around with teens,who both don't care and aren't educated enough, is a risk I didn't want to see. I pray we all get through this,but staying away from each other will definitely give the hospitals a break until this eases off somewhat. I know they won't listen and a lot have to learn the hard way.

Surely with 60,000 deaths each year in America from the flu (not to mention the other 340,000 globally) the same stringent practices should be enforced each year to try and save as many of those whom succumb to the flu each year.In other words perhaps a permanent lock down,social distancing and the wearing of masks or are those that die from flu complications including children not worth saving because the covid 19 is not the flu? 

[ReLo]

Wondering if people even heard about Covid in ESAAN provinces ?

 

Nobody cares...

 

 

[Saltire]

In the village here in Western Kanchanaburi i at last see some locals complying with the distancing but not enough. I believe my wife and I are the only ones adhering to it 99%. I am even more now the weird farang who rarely leaves home. Also the wife has had to ask (ok tell!) her brother to live elsewhere as he would not join in our self quarantine, saying it will never come here. However it's a daily challenge to make sure the local imbeciles, alcoholics and general gossips out of reach. Forced cold turkey for some as indeed, the local ahops have run out of beer and local firewater.

 

On the plus side the poo yai is now reading out names on the tannoy of people registered as returners and breaking the 14 day stay at home quarantine. If they break the rule a sesond time he will fine them. This seems to work as families are daily losing face, and potentially, money. However he only started this after his own son's 3 day beano at his home when his son was ordinated as a monk.

 

Another positive is all local (1 morning and 3 afternoon) fresh markets are closed with vendors now roaming the village on motorbikes or selling from their dwelling house, which I guess is a little less risky with no crowds.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Saltire

[Anant72]

Social distancing in Chaeng Wattana immigration offices?

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, AsiaCheese said:

So what about this quote from the article:

"This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19."

The study tries to explain the effect of restrictions on travel in China. However, it openly admits that it is unable to separate each measure that was taken and attribute the specific effect to it, though it tried to do so. There were several measures taken in China:

 

"Interventions include improved rates of diagnostic testing, clinical management, rapid isolation of suspected cases, confirmed cases and contacts and, most notably, restrictions on mobility (hereafter called cordon sanitaire) imposed on Wuhan city on 23^rdJanuary. "

 

Of course all those drastic control measures taken together substantially mitigated the spread of Covid 19.

 

The question is, was it any one particular measure, in particular was it travel restrictions or increased testing that mitigated the spread?

 

Looking at travel restrictions alone the authors conclude that in the early stages travel restrictions can be useful, but not so much after the virus has spread widely (which has been the case in Thailand for some time)

 

"Here, we show that travel restrictions are particularly useful in the early stage of an outbreak when it is confined to a certain area that acts as a major source. However, travel restrictions may be less effective once the outbreak is more widespread."

 

The authors also admit:

 

"The combination of interventions implemented in China were clearly successful in mitigating spread and reducing local transmission of COVID-19, although in this work it was not possible to definitively determine the impact of each intervention. Much further work is required to determine how to balance optimally the expected positive effect on public health with the negative impact on freedom of movement, the economy, and society at large."

 

In other words, even AFTER these academics had figures available (let alone before this which is when the Imperial College apocalypse model was drafted) there is no evidence that social distancing works, except to buy a very small amount of time. The mitigation of transmission in China could be mostly due to testing rather than road blocks. In the absence of the ability distinguish the effect of each measure it is not possible to say so for sure, so social distancing fanatics will continue to claim this is what mitigated transmission, when it may well have been the testing and isolating of carriers.

 

"

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Logosone

[Number 6]

3 hours ago, sahibji said:

the concept of social distancing (invented by someone sated in a cool air conditioned office) is good in theory only. it is not practical to effect this in reality - how to do so in public transportation, markets, malls etc.you try to keep your distance and people come very close to you. what can you? nothing at all.

Besides, all the poor people can't take their daily dump in the mall's toilet facilities.

 

Places always smell rank.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Number 6

[mickyr55]

20 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

what state of emergency?

 

having just done a 13 kilometer round trip from by house to Big C in Hua Hin and back I was shocked to see how normal everything was. 

 

as I left my hood the traffic which has been greatly reduced slowly increased as I headed to the more "no nonsense" part of town. 

 

the big differences in town is greatly reduced traffic, bars closed, massage closed, restaurants switched to take out, malls closed. But that was it, very business was open all the way across town. Maybe salon were closed. But not laundry.  

 

Building supply stores were selling concrete bricks and groups of Thai men were loading them on a pickup truck. I saw farang buying blue PVC pipe. Scooter sales and repair, cellphone shops, everything was open and people were everywhere.   

 

At least the Thais are wearing masks now in much larger numbers, I would say 80%. Still farangs in Big C no mask. All older white males seem to be this demographic.  

 

I never saw one policeman anywhere on my route.

 

 

 

Always being told masks are useless and don't work however seeing so many Thais with them and knowing how they believe all the Government tell em I thought it would be prudent to get some, 3 different Makro numerous Tesco,BigCs 7/11 and pharmacies galore no success so tell me where the hell do you get them from tried Sattahip, Pluta Luang, Ban Chang and Rayong no luck but at last I have managed to get 3 cloth masks way too small for me but I have made the effort ????????

I now get stared at much less when out shopping. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by mickyr55

[fredwiggy]

Social distancing will buy time for the overcrowded hospitals to discharge more patients ,thereby leaving more ventilators for the newer ones. A lock down will do more. Postponing the inevitable? Likely, yes,as everyone in the world might either get sick from this or carry it,with the exception of those that live on the island off Thailand, where no one is allowed to go.

[Logosone]

6 minutes ago, fredwiggy said:

Social distancing will buy time for the overcrowded hospitals to discharge more patients ,thereby leaving more ventilators for the newer ones. A lock down will do more. Postponing the inevitable? Likely, yes,as everyone in the world might either get sick from this or carry it,with the exception of those that live on the island off Thailand, where no one is allowed to go.

Also people forget that the hospitals are full of people already with critical conditions, and if a massive focus on Covid19 results in impaired care for those patients, cancellations of operations, beds shifted offsite to people with less expertise, all this could cost the lives of non-Covid19 patients with critical conditions.

 

And prolonging the shock to the health system maybe without tangible benefit if doctors can not do much for Covid19 patients anyway, ie no therapy, no vaccine, not enough supplies.

 

So a quick sharp shock to the health system may cause less deaths than a drawn-out 'flattening of the curve'.

[emptypockets]

4 hours ago, sahibji said:

the concept of social distancing (invented by someone sated in a cool air conditioned office) is good in theory only. it is not practical to effect this in reality - how to do so in public transportation, markets, malls etc.you try to keep your distance and people come very close to you. what can you? nothing at all.

If people blatantly continue to ignore social distancing then the next step may be very unpleasant. Total lockdown for two weeks regardless of the whining, enforced by the army. One person per household allowed to leave for essential shopping etc once every three days. Or basic food delivered, rice etc and nobody leaves home.

Don't think it will happen? 

Keep those happy thoughts.

Edited March 28, 2020 by emptypockets