Infections will skyrocket without social distancing, says official

[emptypockets]

5 minutes ago, sjaak327 said:

And with a lock-down, people eventually will stop dying, until the next wave. It is hardly rocket science. Mother nature will do whatever she pleases. We can just try to influence her in a certain way. People that disagree with the total isolation venue aren't dumb. In fact they are trying to insert reason into the illogical fear. 

" Into their illogical fear"

Fixed it for you.

[Blumpie]

Sorry I shouldn't have said "kids".  You're adults and that wasn't very nice.

Bangkok is completely empty today.  It's wild.

[sjaak327]

1 minute ago, Throatwobbler said:

I am sorry but could you please tell me where you studied pandemic and infectious diseases  It is an important question because you seem to know better than all the world experts. So again I would like to know where you studied so I can weigh up both your arguments

 

I have not studied either, however I do have a bit of commons sense, something apparently lacking by a lot of governments at the moment, fear has always been a bad basis to make solid decisions. 

[Blumpie]

Just now, Throatwobbler said:

The lies where uneducated people like yourself make statements like they are facts. Did you study infectious and pandemic diseases? Are they you speciality? If Not then shut the <deleted> up and listen to the experts.

I wouldn't bother arguing about impractical scenarios from the blissful.  

[emptypockets]

I guess one good thing about all of this is that Governments will make their decisions not based on internet forum opinion.

[sjaak327]

Just now, emptypockets said:

Where is the irony?

Who said isolation will make the virus go away? Not me.

The purpose of isolation is to slow the spread of the infection to give the medical community a fighting chance to save lives and not allow the system to be overloaded to the extent that we have seen in Italy, Iran and now Spain.

Read some of the things Italian doctors have been saying about having to decide who lives and who dies when a decision is made about who gets to go on the ventilator.

Yes, and no-one can escape this. The point is simple, slowing the spread of the virus is logical, but allowing just a very tiny percentage of the population to get infected will eventually ensure the cycle will repeat. It is a combination that is the answer. 

[sjaak327]

1 minute ago, emptypockets said:

I guess one good thing about all of this is that Governments will make their decisions not based on internet forum opinion.

Sure, many of those governments don't make their decision based on extensive testing either, because with all of our might, we seem to be unable to do just that, with the exception of South Korea.

Edited March 28, 2020 by sjaak327

[FarFlungFalang]

3 hours ago, emptypockets said:

You assertion that nothing is done for victims of the seasonal flu is fallacious

That is not my assertion my point is that if people are willing to shutdown the economy to help save live for this pandemic why do we not do the same for the 400,000 flu victims each year.Comparing this outbreak with the flu is not false as they share similar traits like the symptoms and the end result of the death of large numbers of people around the world another point I make is it right to shutdown to try and save one group and not the other because some think they are not worthy.Do you think the flu victims,many thousands of which are children,are not worth the same effort?I’m not trying to lessen the severity of this outbreak by making my point about the flu but to point out the hypocrisy of trying to shutdown to save one group and not the other.

[metisdead]

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[actonion]

I try to keep social  distancing,  but if you are a pedestrian on any major Soi in East pattaya its not easy to avoid contact with people  as long as they keep these markets  open which are as busy now as they ever were.   CLOSE THEM

[overherebc]

On 3/27/2020 at 3:47 PM, colinneil said:

Social distancing, ha ha ha, thats a joke, all the usual village gossips  congregating next door for their daily session.

The only people practicing distancing is me and the misses, everyone else here business as usual.

Two women outside our gate this morning giving my wife grief about being married to the crazy hiding away farang.

Same around my way. Regular get togethers.

How does anyone answer them a couple of weeks down the line when they complain that their father/mother died because the hospital had no beds to spare.

Without panic buying we  have been ok at home now since last border run

( nearly two weeks now ) and can do another month easily.

Very short trips to buy small amounts just to keep topped up.

Just hope the 'bum-gun' gets through isolation as well ????

  

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by overherebc

[crutchy26]

I think Songkran will see a likely spread, as social mingling & parties take-up. Cynical, but logical from what I perceive.

Family basically in lock-down & quiet all 'round. Except for the hundreds of dogs around Sila East (KK)

[FarFlungFalang]

7 hours ago, Throatwobbler said:

I like that you feel free to gamble with other people’s lives about how dangerous it could be. People with respect and compassion for the older generation will do our best to keep them clear from this virus. It is obvious that you do not give a f$&# and would not care if they all die. I am happy that you have no elderly relatives that you care about and are happy for them all to die. Some of us do care though and we hope that you can follow simple orders and stay at home. This is not all about you. 

Good morning Throatwobbler I trust you are well and remain covid19 free,I am respectful and compassionate for the older generation in these trying covid19 times which is why I suggest that the same measures being applied to save the lives of the older generation be applied to those 400,000 victims of the flu many thousands of which are children which it seems are not particularly vulnerable to covid19.The symptoms and outcomes of both afflictions are remarkably similar although the numbers of fatalities may vary and may vary considerably.I fail to see that my caring and compassion for both groups of afflictions makes it obvious that I don't care if the victims of covid19 all die or that I'm willing to gamble with their lives.Your inept and infantile aspersion that I could care less about those suffering from covid19 or that I care not for my elderly relatives does little to support your argument that the 400,000 victims of the flu do not deserve the same level of caring and compassion shown to those vulnerable to covid19 by practicing social distancing and shutting down the economy.Put simply I feel both groups should be treated equally.As for staying home I'm the family driver a so it I who must venture out for sustenance in order for my family to survive and so I will not stay home.I trust this help explain my point which about equality of treatment and not preferential treatment of similar afflictions.   

 

 

 

[colinneil]

Social distancing here ha, what a joke !!

Wifes father at the gate this morning demanding entry, no way.

Silly old sod giving my wife grief for not going to a local tamboon.

We are not going out, nobody coming in says my wife, dont listen to that stupid farang he says, the head monk at the temple told us, it is only people in the cities who need to worry, it wont come here, we are safe living in the country.

Gawd how bloody stupid, everybody here believes the monk.

[FarFlungFalang]

2 minutes ago, colinneil said:

Social distancing here ha, what a joke !!

Wifes father at the gate this morning demanding entry, no way.

Silly old sod giving my wife grief for not going to a local tamboon.

We are not going out, nobody coming in says my wife, dont listen to that stupid farang he says, the head monk at the temple told us, it is only people in the cities who need to worry, it wont come here, we are safe living in the country.

Gawd how bloody stupid, everybody here believes the monk.

With 8 out of 10 required for it to work and about 1 in 100 (probably 1 in 1000) actually practicing social distancing it is indeed a sad waste of effort and the economy.The money saved by keeping the economy going by those less vulnerable whist isolating the vulnerable could have been spent on boosting efforts like buying ventilators and tests kits and other health related resources. 

[ChomDo]

A full lockdown would be the only way to bring some discipline to the Thai people. It doesn't look like they even understand what social distancing means or then it's just selfishness. I proper lock down would at least teach them a lesson. The biggest joke of course is the immigration forcing people to crowd the offices for no sensible reason. It's an absolute disgrace! If other countries can have an online system in place, so can Thailand. 

 

Here's a good article about the topic on Bangkok Post: https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1888015/end-tourist-paper-chase 

I wish this article got more attention and there would soon be a stop to this nonsense!

[Logosone]

11 hours ago, diddygq said:

Do more research. China could have contained it before spreading out of Wuhan and then the world. Even though doctors and reporters were warning the government, the CCP chose to detain, beat up, and silence them. They let 3 million people leave Wuhan before even lifting a finger. If they would have acted swiftly instead of covering up, you or I wouldn't have to worry about it. The CCP is very similar to Thailand in the fact they are not proactive and wait until there is a big problem before acting. 

 

You can see the study is complete BS because they don't have the real data. The first cases in Wuhan were in early November. That study is going off Wuhan, 2 months later. 

 

Social distancing and lots of testing does work. Taiwan and South Korea have proved it.

I don't think you understand what that study says, it wanted to study what impact travel restrictions had on the spread of the virus. Of course any study on that would have to be AFTER data is available not before.

 

They found that it was not possible to attribute to any measure the exact figure of reduction transmission.

 

However they wrote that it appeared that closing off Wuhan resulted in a delay in transmission of 3 days to the rest of China.

 

Yes, of course if they had done the cordoning off of Wuhan much earlier that could have slowed transmission more. 

 

The study actually says that "travel restrictions are more meaningful at the start of an infection, less so after the virus has spread".

 

It's true that  letting half the population of Wuhan leave probably reduced the effect of the social distancing measure.

 

However it seems equally true that it was testing, identifying and isolating the carriers which helped countries like South Korea, Germany, Taiwan, Singapore and others to contain the virus.

 

Testing and isolating are true containment measures. Social distancing is merely a delay measure.

[Logosone]

9 hours ago, emptypockets said:

How are the Dutch determining who has proven most resilient to the virus? Those who don't die? Pretty severe way of finding out.

Like the flu virus, this may mutate and herd immunity may never be achieved.

There is plenty of data now on who is most affected by Covid19 and who least. 

 

The average age of deaths in Italy is 81, same in Germany. The younger, bar the odd exceptions are more resilient.

 

"The national health institute said the average age of those who have died was 81, with the majority suffering from underlying health problems."

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51777049

 

Most of those 81 year olds and older, who died, would have died of other causes in any event and had pre-existing conditions.

 

This virus has already mutated. However, the coronavirus is not an influenza virus. The latter mutate much more frequently. The mutations of Covid19 that have been found have been few and were inconsequential.

 

In fact a mutation can work in our favour, SARS actually lost a part of its genome in a mutation that was related to transmission, which helped us. Sometimes mutations are good.

 

Herd immunity will be achieved. Because immunity is the rule, exceptions notwitstanding.

 

You'll all be fine. The economies, however, is another matter. The lockdowns have already had catastrophic consequences for many people. Some business can never reopen and are lost forever. The US economy will contract 30% in one quarter.

 

[tifino]

the simple threat of Fining those who flout the social distance rules, is not strong enough!

1.  - if a group of flouters are caught... don't Fine them, but simply take them off the streets there and then
2. no go home, but be taken straight to quarantine