Hard data again.

In France, in 2015 we had 579 800 deaths

42 100 were caused by "respiratory diseases"

Hard data again.
But this time for 2013, and with more details about those "respiratory diseases"
(source : french health minister, page 3 of the PDF)
https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/esp2017_5_principales_causes_de_deces_et_de_morbidite.pdf

2013 = total 567 078 deaths
On this total : 37 626 deaths caused by "respiratory diseases" (men + women)
Details :
Flu = 715
Pneumonia = 12 056
Chronic diseases from  lower respiratory tract = 10 540
Asthma = 883

 

Okay, now you have "scales" and "perspectives".

Now you tell me : this mysterious "coronavirus" that attacks the respiratory system... End of march, France announces 2 300 deaths.

 

Fair enough.

Is it "normal" or "abnormal" or totally apocalyptic compared to the 12 056 death from "pneumonia" in 2013 ?

 

Or the total of 37 626 deaths in 2013 from the whole group of "respiratory diseases" (42 100 in 2015) ?
 

My question is of course purely rhetorical...

 

So the situation is very simple : where France will be end of december 2020 ?

 

What will be the group of "deaths caused by respiratory diseases" ?

 

Around the yearly average of 42 000 ? Or Doubled ? Tripled ? Or quadrupled ?

 

Voilà. This is the only question if you want to understand and assess the health effect of this virus.

 

And after that, you can answer another question : from an economic point of view, where France will be end of december 2020 after this furious lockdown ?

 

And finally, you can link both...

????

 

13 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Absolutely spot on. This economic shutdown is going to be 700 times worse than the virus. People will starve to death. Especially in places like India, with over 500 million people existing on $2-5 a day. Is that bailout going to really help them? And if so, for how long? There is something else at stake here. We are not seeing the full picture. I am beginning to believe this is not what it appears, on any level. 

No bailout in India, or in most countries.

People will have to fend for themselves.

Even in the US, how far will people go with 1,200 dollars (handed in May, at best), not including millions usually working on marge of the system.

We will see the picture emerge, piece by piece, soon enough...

Just looking at the US multi trillion rescue plan gives a good idea of what's in store...

 

13 minutes ago, christophe75 said:

 

Now you tell me : this mysterious "coronavirus" that attacks the respiratory system... End of march, France announces 2 300 deaths.

 

Fair enough.

Is it "normal" or "abnormal" or totally apocalyptic compared to the 12 056 death from "pneumonia" in 2013 ?

 

Or the total of 37 626 deaths in 2013 from the whole group of "respiratory diseases" (42 100 in 2015) ?
 

My question is of course purely rhetorical...

 

A good number among the 2,300 would otherwise have been included in another cause of death category, because their time was up anyway.

 

Having said that, even if the total number of deaths by respiratory diseases happened to double in 2020, in comparison with an average year, that would still raise the question: is it necessary to shut down the country and its (already weak) economy for that?

 

And by the way, is this shutdown changing anything with regards to the death toll?

50 minutes ago, christophe75 said:

 

 So 2314, even if we extrapolate on 12 months = 27000... is not much... Plus, how many of those old 27000 victims would have died anyway during the year ?).

 

That figure doesn't hold up at all. 

The death rate is increasing rapidly so you can't simply 2314x12=27000

 

29 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Listening to many, it would seem as if the coronavirus had become the ONLY cause of death in the world.

 

 

Some more hard data from the UK:

 

"All non-urgent operations in England will be postponed for at least three months, starting April 15, to free up 30,000 beds to help tackle the coronavirus."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

 

So let that melt on your tongue, ALL, not some, but all, non-urgent operations in England will be postponed because they want to free up 30000 beds and focus on Covid19. Care for critical or near critical cases will also be impaired, anyone who thinks otherwise is a blue-eyed optimist.

 

Worst case scenario then more people die from non-Covid conditions during this next 12 (maybe 18) months, a figure that will never be known or researched of course than doctors can save from Covid19 (no therapy, no vaccine, no basic materials).

 

 

 

1 hour ago, christophe75 said:

Lastest details from the french government (for march 25th)

 

1331 deaths (in hospitals) (yesterday it was 2314)

 

86 % of them were older than 70 years.

 

It matches perfectly the data from Italy.

 

Other info : the french gvt will start to publish "next week" the mortality numbers, at local (département), provincial (région) and national levels, "all causes" (in France, "état civil" administration issues and collects the birth and death certificates, then those data are agregated by INSEE).

 

This is very important.

 

At last, we will be able to see, clearly, if the virus has any effect on the national level (we need to repeat that to focus on 1 hospital, 1 small city, 1 area etc... like people do in Italy is perfectly pointless).

 

To assess correctly the threat, we need to look at death number (all causes), and do comparisons with previous periods.

 

Right now, it's obvious, the number of "virus deaths" are grotesque at national level, and per year (per year more than 600 000 people die in France... So 2314, even if we extrapolate on 12 months = 27000... is not much... Plus, how many of those old 27000 victims would have died anyway during the year ?).

 

Against hysteria, insanity... we need hard data and we have to put those hard data into perspective.

 

This is the only cure we need right now.

I hear ya !   So, from what i count so far........... that makes 4 of us  ????

Thank you for your input .

   Stuck  in  my condo  with  you 

 

Well i don't know why i came home tonight

i got the feeling that something ain't right

I'm so scared they'll chain me to my chair

make me watch CNN ,  oh dear !

Covid to my left

Jokers to my right

Stuck in this condo with you

 

Yes i'm stuck in this condo with you

And I'm wondering what it is i should do

It's so hard to keep a smile on my face,
Losing control, yeah, I'm all over the place

Covid to the left of me, posters to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the condo  with you

I'm stuck in Singapore...

Happy to be stuck here, for now.. Really would like to get home to my wife at some point in the next 4-6 weeks though !!

 

Anyway, Singapore is not on lock down !! Yes they have stopped foreigners entering the country but day to day life goes on...

 

Why ?? Because they make sure everyone who arrives into the country does 14 day isolation. They test everyone with symptoms and then do proper contact tracing.

Anyone who was in close contact is then put in isolation. Most importantly, I think, they give out the information on each case, so if you've been near that person you get a heads up and can go get tested.

They are averaging about 40-70 new cases a day but 60-80% of these are returning residents, who are put into isolation when landing, not at their houses now but in hotels.

 

It is working, for now... Restaurants are still open, beaches etc They have closed all bars, clubs and cinemas which is no big deal...  

 

So why is the rest of the world isolating healthy people ??? Fear mongering and hastily written protocols ??

Are schools still open in Singapore?

28 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Some more hard data from the UK:

 

"All non-urgent operations in England will be postponed for at least three months, starting April 15, to free up 30,000 beds to help tackle the coronavirus."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

 

So let that melt on your tongue, ALL, not some, but all, non-urgent operations in England will be postponed because they want to free up 30000 beds and focus on Covid19. Care for critical or near critical cases will also be impaired, anyone who thinks otherwise is a blue-eyed optimist.

 

Worst case scenario then more people die from non-Covid conditions during this next 12 (maybe 18) months, a figure that will never be known or researched of course than doctors can save from Covid19 (no therapy, no vaccine, no basic materials).

 

 

 

On the bright side, some tennis courts are still open in the UK...

 

 

8 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Are schools still open in Singapore?

 

Yes they are, just checked...

18 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

if you've been near that person you get a heads up and can go get tested.

 

They are tops at contact tracing in sg. Not much crime to address, so the crime detectives are all

over this. 

 

There are still a worrying number of unlinked cases...which is the problem. But people are by and large

cooperating. The only weak link is that there is shoulder to shoulder traffic on public trains and buses

during rush hour...which is troubling.

 

The real game changer is the track and trace app that millions have on their phones. Using bluetooth 

it exchanges phone numbers with other devices so if someone is discovered as infected their phone can reveal all the other people they have been in close proximity to.

 

All these measures are easy to administer in a small place like SG....more challenging elsewhere.

11 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

I'm stuck in Singapore...

Happy to be stuck here, for now.. Really would like to get home to my wife at some point in the next 4-6 weeks though !!

 

Anyway, Singapore is not on lock down !! Yes they have stopped foreigners entering the country but day to day life goes on...

 

Why ?? Because they make sure everyone who arrives into the country does 14 day isolation. They test everyone with symptoms and then do proper contact tracing.

Anyone who was in close contact is then put in isolation. Most importantly, I think, they give out the information on each case, so if you've been near that person you get a heads up and can go get tested.

They are averaging about 40-70 new cases a day but 60-80% of these are returning residents, who are put into isolation when landing, not at their houses now but in hotels.

 

It is working, for now... Restaurants are still open, beaches etc They have closed all bars, clubs and cinemas which is no big deal...  

 

So why is the rest of the world isolating healthy people ??? Fear mongering and hastily written protocols ??

Singapore is probably the best administered city-state in the world, and I would rather follow their lead than the Western one.

 

It seems obvious that it is the sick that need to be on lockdown, and not the whole population.

 

The West has chosen to follow the infamous Vietnam war policy, so well described by an officer saying "in order to save the village, we had to destroy it".

 

1 minute ago, Brunolem said:

Singapore is probably the best administered city-state in the world, and I would rather follow their lead than the Western one.

 

... and they banned Spitting ($500 Fine)  over 40 years ago...

24 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Yes they are, just checked...

Thanks, so still relatively relaxed on the social distancing.

 

But testing and isolating aggressively.

 

The more one looks at it looks as if Singapore is the best model currently.

10 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Thanks, so still relatively relaxed on the social distancing.

 

But testing and isolating aggressively.

 

The more one looks at it looks as if Singapore is the best model currently.

 

They need to work on their social distancing but then I find there is a general lack of spacial awareness in this region anyway !!

The government here is trying to enforce a 1m minimum in public and is closing down businesses that fail to adhere.

Fines are now on the cards for people out n about that don't observe a strict 1m+ spacing too...

13 hours ago, bartender100 said:

260 died yesterday in the UK, one of those i knew personally, and she dies in complete agony France had even more deaths

 

And some clowns think this is not serious

Why did she die in agony? Have the hospitals run out of morphine?

Out here in the sticks of Songkhla, the kids are getting restless and riding around in little groups on motorbikes -- racing, riding wheelies, playing chicken -- I really do think more of them will end up in hospital than from that effect than from the virus.

 

None of them are wearing helmets, but all have surgical masks on.

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Absolutely spot on. This economic shutdown is going to be 700 times worse than the virus. People will starve to death. Especially in places like India, with over 500 million people existing on $2-5 a day. Is that bailout going to really help them? And if so, for how long? There is something else at stake here. We are not seeing the full picture. I am beginning to believe this is not what it appears, on any level. 

I fully agree..  starvation, suicides (from isolation or bankruptcy, etc), murder (probably of one's co-self-isolationist in many cases), etc, will almost certainly lead to many more deaths than CV.

 

In 2019, the UK had just under 700,000 deaths (or about 1% of the population).  That's almost 2,000 per day, so the 1,019 deaths attributed to CV so far are what would be expected in around 12 hours.. (or put another way, CV has so far been responsible for a little over 0.5% of the expected deaths).

 

Globally, with 7.8 Bn population there might be expected to be around 70 Million deaths per year, so the 31,000 deaths from CV complications is less than 0.2% of "normally" expected deaths.

 

The media is (being told to..?) blowing it out of all proportion.  WHY..?

8 minutes ago, steve73 said:

I fully agree..  starvation, suicides (from isolation or bankruptcy, etc), murder (probably of one's co-self-isolationist in many cases), etc, will almost certainly lead to many more deaths than CV.

 

In 2019, the UK had just under 700,000 deaths (or about 1% of the population).  That's almost 2,000 per day, so the 1,019 deaths attributed to CV so far are what would be expected in around 12 hours.. (or put another way, CV has so far been responsible for a little over 0.5% of the expected deaths).

 

Globally, with 7.8 Bn population there might be expected to be around 70 Million deaths per year, so the 31,000 deaths from CV complications is less than 0.2% of "normally" expected deaths.

 

The media is (being told to..?) blowing it out of all proportion.  WHY..?

We are witnessing society in a meltdown level panic. The media is squeezing this to a nauseating level. This is NOT the zombie apocalypse. 

 

That for the wise perspective. Spot on. This virus is a pimple, that is being treated as a cancerous tumor. 

4 minutes ago, steve73 said:

The media is (being told to..?) blowing it out of all proportion.  WHY..?

Well, first of all it is a real event, more than 10,000 people dying in Italy in a few weeks is of course a serious matter.

 

So one would expect the media to report on it. However, they are having a field day with alarmist and panic inducing spins on the story.

 

Fear is one of the primal human emotions and it is the dominant emotion today. Coincidentally it helps to shore up TV ratings and sell newspapers.

 

There is a song by a German group "Wir sind Helden" which has a title "Endlich ein Grund zur Panik" (Finally, a reason to panic). That could be the soundtrack for these times.

 

Social media of course further shores up the fears.

 

Naturally, if you are affected, or a loved one, it can't possibly be blown out of proportion, it's the most important thing in the world. And a large number are affected, and more will be. Even if in relative terms we can all see greater causes of death.

 

 

1 hour ago, tifino said:

... and they banned Spitting ($500 Fine)  over 40 years ago...

And now it is Dr Fauci himself who is revising his death predictions waaayyyy down!

 

https://www.wnd.com/2020/03/dr-fauci-concedes-coronavirus-death-rate-like-bad-flu/

 

7 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

And now it is Dr Fauci himself who is revising his death predictions waaayyyy down!

 

https://www.wnd.com/2020/03/dr-fauci-concedes-coronavirus-death-rate-like-bad-flu/

 

So revised down by a factor of ten. He just counted identified cases, elementary error Dr Fauci.

 

Meanwhile the Governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, is thinking for himself

 

""I don't even know that that was the best public health policy. Young people then quarantined with older people, [it] was probably not the best public health strategy," he said. "The younger people could have been exposing the older people to an infection."

 

I like this guy.

13 minutes ago, Logosone said:

So revised down by a factor of ten. He just counted identified cases, elementary error Dr Fauci.

 

Meanwhile the Governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, is thinking for himself

 

""I don't even know that that was the best public health policy. Young people then quarantined with older people, [it] was probably not the best public health strategy," he said. "The younger people could have been exposing the older people to an infection."

 

I like this guy.

This is exactly what they are doing in Italy and France... lock the infected not yet identified with the non infected... resulting in an explosion of cases... 

 

Meanwhile Neil Ferguson has said the lockdown will last at least until June in the UK.

 

So, two weeks down, two months still to go.

 

That's if they lift it then. Remember the IC report said "at least 12 months" and ideally "18 months".

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164157/Senior-health-chief-warns-Britons-need-say-lockdown-June.html

 

5 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Just like the modelling to claim climate change will destroy the planet in 12 years?  Sorry - off topic but I had to say that.

Back to it ...........

Sadly that's already had a head start in your country. 

Its hard to imagine that a planet wide plague could become such an internet bore..and that gross perseveration is the order of the day.

 

Altho' Albert Camus would have,quite possibly, agreed

 

Stay safe,be careful.

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

And now it is Dr Fauci himself who is revising his death predictions waaayyyy down!

 

https://www.wnd.com/2020/03/dr-fauci-concedes-coronavirus-death-rate-like-bad-flu/

 

You either succumb to White House pressure to color the facts, you resign, or you are fired. There is no grey area with this president. 

19 hours ago, Logosone said:

We have definitely witnessed a world wide adoption of Dr Ferguson's social distancing fetish.

 

Not completely of course, there are exceptions:

 

The Netherlands has so far chosen a softer set of measures than most Western European countries; it was late to close its schools and restaurants and hasn’t ordered a full lockdown. In a 16 March speech, Prime Minister Mark Rutte rejected “working endlessly to contain the virus” and “shutting down the country completely.” Instead, he opted for “controlled spread” of the virus among the groups least at risk of severe illness while making sure the health system isn’t swamped with COVID-19 patients. 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mathematics-life-and-death-how-disease-models-shape-national-shutdowns-and-other#

 

However, even the Americans were influenced by this infernal piece of <deleted> report from Neil Ferguson:

 

"American officials said the report, which projected up to 2.2 million deaths in the United States from such a spread, also influenced the White House to strengthen its measures to isolate members of the public."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

 

Some said governments should treat the report’s projections about suppression policies with the same caution. It says social distancing measures might have to be imposed for 18 months or more, at least intermittently, until a vaccine is developed and tested. But the report acknowledges this is uncertain, given the possibility of drug treatments and the mystery of how the virus is transmitted.

 

British officials recognize that their health service faces a moment of truth. All non-urgent operations in England will be postponed for at least three months, starting April 15, to free up 30,000 beds to help tackle the coronavirus.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

 

Part of the reason why the Americans looked at the Imperial College, apart from the fact that it was IC and it was in English was of course that Neil Ferguson deliberately flirted with the US in a coquettish manner and also refers to the US in his paper.

 

There is no question that many governments copied what the US and UK were doing. Singapore, South Korea, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands being some of the notable exceptions, and coincidentally being the most successful in mitigating deaths. 

 

So basically everyone is following the wrong model. The UK model. Yes, your highly benign influence again screwing up the world for generations to come. Hello Palestine, Syria, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Northern Ireland, Malaysia, Cyprus, Nigeria, there is nothing the British will not mess up. Of course this is a new scale. 

Your whole rambling really comes down to the last paragraph where your prejudice surfaces. I am sure Countries have their own minds 

Not at all, that's just a fortuitous convergence of facts.

 

The fact is that Neil Ferguson's first IC model failed. He revised it and again it looks very questionable.

 

Where's the evidence that social distancing works with Covid19? Do you have the paper that shows this is the case?