UK peak of coronavirus outbreak could be Easter Sunday, health minister

[snoop1130]

UK peak of coronavirus outbreak could be Easter Sunday, health minister

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The deadliest peak of Britain’s coronavirus outbreak could be on Easter Sunday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said on Friday.

 

When asked about reports that the death rate could peak on April 12, Hancock told Sky: “I defer to the scientists on the exact predictions, I’m not going to steer you away from that. That is one perfectly possible outcome.”

 

Reuters reported on Thursday that the British government’s worst case scenario envisaged the COVID-19 death toll of 50,000 if self-isolation was not fully adhered to and that the worst day for deaths was projected to be April 12.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-04-03

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[Basil B]

What the UK has done is apply a turquia, at some point they will have to ease it and the bleeding will start again. 

[faraday]

Been consulting Scripture have you Matt?

[Susco]

WOW, they can point a specific day when a virus gonna reach the peak? How about the exact time of the day?

 

Does the UK health secretary have Thai roots by any chance?

[grumbleweed]

UK peak of coronavirus outbreak could be Easter Sunday, health minister

Come on! You can't leave people in the dark, surely you can do better than that. What time exactly on Easter Sunday

[stuhan]

They hope,somehow i don't think it's so easy to predict.

 

[Chomper Higgot]

20 minutes ago, Susco said:

WOW, they can point a specific day when a virus gonna reach the peak? How about the exact time of the day?

 

Does the UK health secretary have Thai roots by any chance?

They are using predictive modeling. 

 

The salient point is that between now and 12 April the death rate will increase day on day.

 

The questionable statement is the caveat ‘if isolation is not strictly adhered to.

 

For weeks the Government ran a ‘herd immunity’ experiment, they have now done a U-turn on that, but the virus has not.

 

The virus is spread widely in the population and death count will be what the death count will be.

 

The government’s statement with respect to 50,000 if isolation is not strictly adhered to is scape goating the nation for the callous folly of the government’s own ‘herd immunity’ experiment.

[Susco]

15 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

They are using predictive modeling. 

 

The salient point is that between now and 12 April the death rate will increase day on day.

Nobody can predict an exact day that infections will start reducing, because a virus is unpredictable, and for a modelling you will need exact numbers of new infections which nobody has.

 

The statement looks more like, it's running out of control and from that day will reduce the numbers we announce.

 

19 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

For weeks the Government ran a ‘herd immunity’ experiment, they have now done a U-turn on that, but the virus has not.

You have a link to that statement, because as far as I know they considered herd immunity, but that was rejected even before it was implemented.

 

Much different from they ran an experiment

[Chomper Higgot]

15 minutes ago, Susco said:

Nobody can predict an exact day that infections will start reducing, because a virus is unpredictable, and for a modelling you will need exact numbers of new infections which nobody has.

 

The statement looks more like, it's running out of control and from that day will reduce the numbers we announce.

 

You have a link to that statement, because as far as I know they considered herd immunity, but that was rejected even before it was implemented.

 

Much different from they ran an experiment

On the matter of predictive modelling, I feel it not my job to fill the gaps in your lack of knowledge on the subject. 

 

On the matter of the Government's 'herd immunity experiment', I refer you to the widely published press reports on the matter. 

 

I'm sorry you don't like the word 'experiment' but trying to combat a completely new virus with herd immunity is an experiment, a very callous experiment but an experiment all the same. They might have been better advised to run some predictive modelling, but that gets us back to square 1. 

[Susco]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

On the matter of predictive modelling, I feel it not my job to fill the gaps in your lack of knowledge on the subject. 

 

On the matter of the Government's 'herd immunity experiment', I refer you to the widely published press reports on the matter. 

 

I'm sorry you don't like the word 'experiment' but trying to combat a completely new virus with herd immunity is an experiment, a very callous experiment but an experiment all the same. They might have been better advised to run some predictive modelling, but that gets us back to square 1. 

So I take it that you don't have any credible sources for your drivel then?

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

8 minutes ago, Susco said:

So I take it that you don't have any credible sources for your drivel then?

 

 

I'm feeling charitable:

 

https://fortune.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-uk-cases-herd-immunity-covid-19/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/17/britain-uk-coronavirus-response-johnson-drops-go-it-alone/

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/04/real-reason-uk-government-pursued-herd-immunity-and-why-it-was-abandoned

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/the-governments-herd-immunity-plan-is-callous-and-dangerous

https://www.vox.com/world/2020/3/15/21180414/coronavirus-uk-herd-immunity-vallance-johnson

 

And .... 

 

https://bookauthority.org/books/beginner-predictive-modeling-books

Edited April 3, 2020 by Chomper Higgot

[Susco]

6 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I'm feeling charitable:

 

https://fortune.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-uk-cases-herd-immunity-covid-19/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/17/britain-uk-coronavirus-response-johnson-drops-go-it-alone/

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/04/real-reason-uk-government-pursued-herd-immunity-and-why-it-was-abandoned

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/the-governments-herd-immunity-plan-is-callous-and-dangerous

https://www.vox.com/world/2020/3/15/21180414/coronavirus-uk-herd-immunity-vallance-johnson

You dp undertand the difference between a proposal and running an experiment, don't you?

 

Well. I think not.

 

 

The UK backs away from “herd immunity” coronavirus proposal amid blowback

 

The UK’s chief science adviser suggested allowing the coronavirus to spread to build immunity. Government ministers said they’ll promote self-isolation instead.

[Chomper Higgot]

Here's the question the government needs to answer. 

 

They have made a prediction of when the peak deaths are expected. 

 

How many deaths do they now expect?

 

Putting aside the implausible idea that their scientific advisors didn't provide a number and nobody in government bothered asking, their 50,000 with a blame the public caveat attached needs to be put into perspective. 

 

[faraday]

10 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

On the matter of predictive modelling, I feel it not my job to fill the gaps in your lack of knowledge on the subject. 

 

On the matter of the Government's 'herd immunity experiment', I refer you to the widely published press reports on the matter. 

 

I'm sorry you don't like the word 'experiment' but trying to combat a completely new virus with herd immunity is an experiment, a very callous experiment but an experiment all the same. They might have been better advised to run some predictive modelling, but that gets us back to square 1. 

Why not explain your first paragraph?

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

8 minutes ago, faraday said:

Why not explain your first paragraph?

 

 

What am I your math tutor already?

[faraday]

12 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

What am I your math tutor already?

No, but you alleged that you understand 'predictive modelling' & when someone asked you what it meant, you said it "was not your job...".

 

Comes across as being a bit superior.

[faraday]

Another *confused emoji*

 

*faraday starts to loose patience*

 

555

 

 

[stephenterry]

12 hours ago, Susco said:

You dp undertand the difference between a proposal and running an experiment, don't you?

 

Well. I think not.

 

 

The UK backs away from “herd immunity” coronavirus proposal amid blowback

 

The UK’s chief science adviser suggested allowing the coronavirus to spread to build immunity. Government ministers said they’ll promote self-isolation instead.

You should read, digest and understand the underneath post which details a factual herd immunity experiment carried out by the UK between 12-16 March - which Chomper has already provided to you.  

 

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/04/real-reason-uk-government-pursued-herd-immunity-and-why-it-was-abandoned

[phantomfiddler]

Could, could, could !!! this whole thing is based on a series of coulds ! The black plague DID kill 50% OF THE EUROPEAN POPULATION, yet here in Thailand this virus has supposedly killed around 0.00002% of the Thai population. Let,s get a sense of perspective here please. More businesses are going to be destroyed, families destroyed, countless other disasters caused by something that is dwarfed by Thailand,s road fatalities. 150,000 people die every day from diabetes related illnesses, and about three quarters of world deaths are caused by non-communicating ailments. The world media has gone mad, why not do something useful and promote a total ban on sugar, cigarettes, bad drivers, but pleeeease leave beer alone ????

[dunroaming]

I can understand the pressure on the government to give predictions as to numbers and to when they think the pandemic will peak in the UK, but I really wish they wouldn't.  All that will happen is that people will then say  "But you said...…." when they get it wrong.