Covid-19 has three variations

[rbkk]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3079491/deadly-coronavirus-comes-three-variants-researchers-find Perhaps this goes a way to explaining the low numbers in Thailand/Asia, compared to Europe/America.

[lamyai3]

19 minutes ago, rbkk said:

Perhaps this goes a way to explaining the low numbers in Thailand/Asia, compared to Europe/America.

Part of the early explosion of cases in Thailand was from the Lumpini Stadium superspreader which was traced back to Italy. So it doesn't add up at all, Thailand with 35 deaths and Italy on the brink of 20000. More likely that the virus weakens significantly in the tropical climate.

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailand-facing-coronavirus-from-italy-which-may-be-more-virulent-than-the-asian-virus/

Edited April 11, 2020 by lamyai3

[Chrysaora]

1 minute ago, lamyai3 said:

Part of the early explosion of cases in Thailand was from the Lumpini Stadium superspreader which came from Italy. So it doesn't add up at all, Thailand with 35 deaths and Italy on the brink of 20000. More likely that the virus weakens significantly in the tropical climate.

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailand-facing-coronavirus-from-italy-which-may-be-more-virulent-than-the-asian-virus/

These two articles will explain Italy.

 

https://uncoverdc.com/2020/03/20/why-italy/

 

https://apnews.com/ae59cfc0641fc63afd09182bb832ebe2

[lamyai3]

3 minutes ago, Chrysaora said:

These two articles will explain Italy.

France and Spain have similar numbers to Italy, how do you explain those? And how in the top 35 list of countries affected, there's not a single one from Southeast Asia? 

[DungeonMouse]

Every country has its' own method of reporting cases. 

 

The UK uses the wording 'who died after testing positive for coronavirus'...

 

Germany allegedly doesn't do post mortem testing.

 

Japan tried to hide its' cases while there was still a chance of the Olympics taking place.

 

Before a universal standard of testing is in place, the stats make it look like different strains have mutated (possible but as yet unproven)

 

And before we China-bash too much...please consider the death toll wreaked upon native populations of the Americas by European explorers with smallpox etc...though syphillis in return wasn't nice either ????

[Eibot]

Seems to me that it just less effective in warmer countries. A known issue with the corona-virus types. 

 

People are just to scared to say it aloud because they are scared of complacency. Rightfully so I would say. 

[rbkk]

6 minutes ago, lamyai3 said:

France and Spain have similar numbers to Italy, how do you explain those? And how in the top 35 list of countries affected, there's not a single one from Southeast Asia? 

Europe=Type C       Asia=Type B (Prevalence)

[Chrysaora]

8 minutes ago, lamyai3 said:

France and Spain have similar numbers to Italy, how do you explain those? And how in the top 35 list of countries affected, there's not a single one from Southeast Asia? 

Quote

BY ELENA RODRIGUEZ

MADRID (Reuters) - Thousands of women across Spain marched on Sunday against gender inequality to mark International Women's Day, despite concerns the gatherings could help the spread of coronavirus.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-08/thousands-march-in-spain-on-womens-day-despite-coronavirus-fears

 

 

[rbkk]

2 minutes ago, Chrysaora said:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-08/thousands-march-in-spain-on-womens-day-despite-coronavirus-fears

 

 

I wonder how many were wearing masks......

 

[Chrysaora]

1 minute ago, rbkk said:

I wonder how many were wearing masks......

 

Same as the people in the stadium in Northern Italy during the soccer game.

[rbkk]

Another report from SCMP (Hong Kong) that it can replicate up to 10 times faster than Sars  https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3079502/coronavirus-causes-covid-19-can-produce-more

[lamyai3]

11 minutes ago, rbkk said:

Europe=Type C       Asia=Type B (Prevalence)

The prevalence of cases in Bangkok was traced back to Italy as shown in the article I posted. Numbers escalated significantly here after the Lumpini Stadium incident. Bangkok remains crowded and people can hardly be described as practicing social distancing. The same strain that's killed many in Italy is clearly not spreading like wildfire here. 

[Eibot]

Just now, lamyai3 said:

The prevalence of cases in Bangkok was traced back to Italy as shown in the article I posted. Numbers escalated significantly here after the Lumpini Stadium incident. Bangkok remains crowded and people can hardly be described as practicing social distancing. The same strain that's killed many in Italy is clearly not spreading like wildfire here. 

It' the weather. Besides this, don't forget that it spread in very specific areas in Italy. What Italy did was bring all those people to the same hospitals instead of spreading them out. Creating an overload on those particular hospitals and therefore increased deaths.

 

Similar things were happening in Madrid, but Spain got on and starting to spread the load. NYC is doing a similar bad job in keeping everyone in one place. 

 

The rest of Europe seem to be doing quite well. At least in terms of being able to provide care. 

 

 

[andy72]

i totally agree its a cold weather virus

 

there can be no other explanation for the low figures in SE Asia

 

what is intriguing is ABC

 

B is a mutation of A and the main one found in the Chinese population

C is the daughter of B which then moved to SE ASia and Europe through Singapore

 

A is very close to the original found in Bats and Pangolins and now decimating the USA and is also prevalent in Australia

 

The explanation apparently is that the virus mutates to exploit our varying immune systems

 

and A was taken to USA by American expats living in Wuhan likewise Australia

 

I find this rather incongruous

Wuhan has been in lock down America was a slow burner

 

but found its mainstay in New York and among the poorer African american communities

 

by these standards A should mutate again for the the African American population and again as it moves south into Latin America

 

likewise c as it moves south into Africa and east into Asian subcontinent and Arab/African populations

 

i guess covid is not done

 

but i still do not like the 'A' explanation does not really make sense on the timelines

 

and before anyone china bashes epidemics dont happen overnight

wuhan was just the perfect place for the virus to proliferate
high density population
cold weather 
perfect storm the epidemic begins CNY begins the largest human population migration is about to begin
wuhan is also home to a contagious disease research facility 
rather convenient for finger pointing

also the wet markets with wildlife and such ie dogs cats 

 

and so the cluster <deleted> begins

 

singapore is the perfect hub 

high density traffic AC conditions

yet consider thailand 

should be very high risk

considering the tourist numbers

yet it was not and still is not

 

malaysia mostly down to muslim religious gatherings
malaysia has not broken down its figures malay/indian/chinese

 

indonesia like wise religious gatherings
south thailand like wise large muslim majority largest infection area


italy football stadiums an almost religious belief

[rbkk]

23 minutes ago, lamyai3 said:

The prevalence of cases in Bangkok was traced back to Italy as shown in the article I posted. Numbers escalated significantly here after the Lumpini Stadium incident. Bangkok remains crowded and people can hardly be described as practicing social distancing. The same strain that's killed many in Italy is clearly not spreading like wildfire here. 

I'm not a scientist, but could it be explained as an imported Type C cluster? .....That has now succumbed to the hot weather!

Edited April 11, 2020 by rbkk

[timendres]

7 minutes ago, andy72 said:

yet consider thailand 

should be very high risk

considering the tourist numbers

yet it was not and still is not

One possible reason why the many thousands of tourists did not spread the virus as one might expect is simply down to their behavior. Anyone who has witnessed Chinese tourists in Thailand knows that they exist, move, and behave as a single unit. Everywhere they go, it is as a group following "the flag". The flag does most of the interacting with those not in the group. So, a couple dozen tourists "appear" as a single person in terms of their exposing the general Thai population. They utilize, and reuse, the same buses. They stay in the same rooms in the same hotels. The highest risk that they posed was most likely when they ate at restaurants, or were let loose in malls for shopping. In both cases, they were mostly a risk to themselves, as most of their interactions with others were likely at some distance.

[timendres]

Graphic presentation of the strains and mutations:

 

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?dmax=2020-04-08&dmin=2020-01-29&l=unrooted

[Enoon]

1 hour ago, lamyai3 said:

 And how in the top 35 list of countries affected, there's not a single one from Southeast Asia? 

 

Because too few tests are being carried out to identify the actual numbers infected, and as a consequence people are dying of "something or other" all around the region.

 

And also because those countries have been massaging/withholding whatever figures they have.

 

This hasn't just been going on in Indonesia:

 

“We did not deliver certain information to the public because we did not want to stir panic."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/16/indonesian-president-admits-suppressed-data-coronavirus-spread/

 

And, of course, this:

 

"Indonesian authorities are using the country’s long-abused criminal defamation laws to crack down on public criticism of the government’s response to the outbreak. The National Police have charged 51 people under criminal defamation laws for allegedly spreading “fake news” about the coronavirus."

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/09/indonesia-little-transparency-covid-19-outbreak

 

Hmm, that sounds familiar.

 

It's been happening........all around the region.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by Enoon

[rbkk]

17 minutes ago, timendres said:

Graphic presentation of the strains and mutations:

 

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?dmax=2020-04-08&dmin=2020-01-29&l=unrooted

Thanks for that. Transmissions: I zoomed into Thailand and only one transmission line (Wuhan) is shown. No Italy/Europe. 

[White Christmas13]

1 hour ago, rbkk said:

I wonder how many were wearing masks......

 

Masks are proven to be useless just look at the US

[rbkk]

 

4 minutes ago, White Christmas13 said:

Masks are proven to be useless just look at the US

They help to contain the spread if you are coughing. 

[White Christmas13]

1 minute ago, rbkk said:

 

They help to contain the spread if you are coughing. 

Only if you are infected

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200323-coronavirus-will-hot-weather-kill-covid-19

[rbkk]

How would you know if your infected, if your asymtematic, without a test? Better to be safe than cough and unwittingly spread the virus.

[rbkk]

20 minutes ago, White Christmas13 said:

Only if you are infected

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200323-coronavirus-will-hot-weather-kill-covid-19

How would you know if your infected, if your asymtematic, without a test? Better to be safe than cough and unwittingly spread the virus.

[riclag]

Whats the difference the 3 of them all could possible kill ya,right

[White Christmas13]

5 minutes ago, rbkk said:

How would you know if your infected, if your asymtematic, without a test? Better to be safe than cough and unwittingly spread the virus.

I've been coughing for years since I stopped smoking so I have to get tested now?

[rbkk]

5 minutes ago, riclag said:

Whats the difference the 3 of them all could possible kill ya,right

I'm guessing in vaccine research they would need to target the 3 different strains. Not much good if you only target one type. Type A in USA seems particularly evil.

[Sundown]

It's not a matter of strains, it's a matter of reporting. Some countries report the truth, other countries cover up cases. Simple as that. 

[rbkk]

2 minutes ago, White Christmas13 said:

I've been coughing for years since I stopped smoking so I have to get tested now?

Better to be safe than cough and unwittingly spread the virus. = In the context of 'wear a mask'

[rbkk]

3 minutes ago, Sundown said:

It's not a matter of strains, it's a matter of reporting. Some countries report the truth, other countries cover up cases. Simple as that. 

I don't think it's that simple. Strains/ weather / culture / reporting / money /government etc are all influencing the course of this outbreak.