Australia may keep coronavirus restrictions for a year, schools may work on roster

[gk10002000]

On 4/17/2020 at 12:49 AM, totally thaied up said:

If these restrictions keep my parents that are both in there 80's safe, I am all for it.

yes but at what cost?  What lifestyle?

[simple1]

49 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I doubt they had a choice. If people can't work and have no money, the consequences are pretty obvious.

Those that have children should realise that their grandchildren will probably be paying off the money borrowed now.

There is an alternative, but it was decided not to go down that path.

Entirely missed my point

[simple1]

43 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

yes but at what cost?  What lifestyle?

it's only temporary measures which on the current curve will probably be lifted no later than July. So far we can we be thankful Oz has done well (except error of judgement with cruise ships) with containing the spread of Covid-19 unlike some other countries such as the US who initially dropped the ball and are heading for 700,000 cases and 40k deaths.

Edited April 18, 2020 by simple1

[gk10002000]

15 minutes ago, simple1 said:

it's only temporary measures which on the current curve will probably be lifted no later than July. So far we can we be thankful Oz has done well (except error of judgement with cruise ships) with containing the spread of Covid-19 unlike some other countries such as the US who initially dropped the ball and are heading for 700,000 cases and 40k deaths.

it is irrelevant because all they did is flatten the curve.  The overall total number affected will increase with time and in the end, there will be little difference had they done more or less lockdown.  Lockdown only slows things down and the goal of the lockdown was to keep the care facilities from being inundated and unable to handle the large initial surge.

 

Many of those deaths would have occurred due to various flus, obese conditions, just being old and weak, etc.

 

Every year 148,000 people in the USA die from lung cancer, and 80% of those people were smokers.  Thousands die from regular flu.  Thousands die from other conditions.  Has anybody seen any of those deaths mentioned on the news?  Of course not.  Heck in many cases, hospitals were not even testing people for the COV due to shortages of testing, both the dead or ill.  Florida reported 726 deaths due to or related to the COV.  726 is insignificant relative to so many other ways of dying in Florida.

 

2016 - 3,176 fatalities in 2,935 fatal accidents

 

The CDC estimates 12,000 Americans die from flu-related deaths in a mild year. In a bad year, it kills up to 56,000 people.

[simple1]

15 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

it is irrelevant because all they did is flatten the curve.  The overall total number affected will increase with time and in the end, there will be little difference had they done more or less lockdown.  Lockdown only slows things down and the goal of the lockdown was to keep the care facilities from being inundated and unable to handle the large initial surge.

 

Many of those deaths would have occurred due to various flus, obese conditions, just being old and weak, etc.

 

Every year 148,000 people in the USA die from lung cancer, and 80% of those people were smokers.  Thousands die from regular flu.  Thousands die from other conditions.  Has anybody seen any of those deaths mentioned on the news?  Of course not.  Heck in many cases, hospitals were not even testing people for the COV due to shortages of testing, both the dead or ill.  Florida reported 726 deaths due to or related to the COV.  726 is insignificant relative to so many other ways of dying in Florida.

 

2016 - 3,176 fatalities in 2,935 fatal accidents

 

The CDC estimates 12,000 Americans die from flu-related deaths in a mild year. In a bad year, it kills up to 56,000 people.

As informed by my doctor Flu has primary mitigation in place i.e. vaccine without which there would be millions of deaths p.a. w/w in comparison to the current number of approx 500k p.a. w/w. Tell me what are the projected number of deaths if there were no current mitigation policies (test, track, quarantine) in place for Covid-19. Only then will your argument have any relevance for comparison.

[samran]

1 hour ago, gk10002000 said:

Every year 148,000 people in the USA die from lung cancer, and 80% of those people were smokers.  Thousands die from regular flu.  Thousands die from other conditions.

Even my 14 year old daughter knows how to rebut that one. The lung cancer isn’t contagious - that’s self inflicted. 
 

The flu is a heck of a lot less contagious as this and has a vaccine of sorts. 
 

You are trying to compare apples and oranges. 

[samran]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Think about it. We have no immunity to Corona ( except the few that have had it and survived ). What happens when lockdown ends and everyone starts to mingle again?

Does anyone think an endless lockdown till/ if a vaccine becomes available is possible?

I have thought about it. 
 

Both countries can’t influence what happens very much outside of their borders, but within the borders they can do plenty. 
 

NZs explicit goal is eradication. You got off the mark quickly and it seems possible. Australia is looking beat it right back and then isolate pockets of what is left. But the biproduct  is likely to be eradication as well.

 

What next? Reopen the domestic economy. Keep the borders locked tight and wait for the vaccine. Well that is the stated plan (which by the way should keep all the anti-globalists on TV very happy!) 

 

So here’s my conspiracy theory FWIW. People talk about herd immunity. There is no guarantee that it will work with this (people are being reinfected and other strains mutate). But say it really is a thing. 
 

My bet is that Australia and NZ know that the rest of the world is going to do a poor job at handling this pandemic. We only have to look over the pacific to see what a sterling job Donnie is doing. 
 

So they are going to let the rest of the world catch it, build up a level of immunity and wait till it burns itself out. It still might take 2 or 3 more years.
 

If it doesn’t work, the at least we’ve had the time to build up our emergency and intensive care systems  so they aren’t overwhelmed and we can’t treat people effectively while we reopen our economy. 

It isn’t a perfect answer, but none of this will be. 

 

 

[gk10002000]

1 hour ago, simple1 said:

As informed by my doctor Flu has primary mitigation in place i.e. vaccine without which there would be millions of deaths p.a. w/w in comparison to the current number of approx 500k p.a. w/w. Tell me what are the projected number of deaths if there were no current mitigation policies (test, track, quarantine) in place for Covid-19. Only then will your argument have any relevance for comparison.

You are free to ignore it do whatever you like.  I argue for nothing. 

[simple1]

25 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

<SNIP> I argue for nothing. 

My misunderstanding. To me your post came across you were proposing Covid restrictions don't serve the purpose to stop the spread of Covid.

[TopDeadSenter]

15 minutes ago, simple1 said:

My misunderstanding. To me your post came across you were proposing Covid restrictions don't serve the purpose to stop the spread of Covid.

They don't. They prolong the inevitable and wreck the economy. 

[simple1]

3 minutes ago, TopDeadSenter said:

They don't. They prolong the inevitable and wreck the economy. 

Might come across as strange to you, but I have a trust with the Oz govt and it's specialist advisers, not you or the rest of the outliers claims.

[TopDeadSenter]

7 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Might come across as strange to you, but I have a trust with the Oz govt and it's specialist advisers, not you or the rest of the outliers claims.

Well if Australia has 100% eradicated covid and can close its borders forever, with no exceptions, then it is a great policy. You will be forever safe from the virus.

 With the total isolation policy your economy is trashed, shortages will be desperate.  As countries with realistic policies such as the UK, most of the EU and USA (pretending to try eradication to calm the generation snowflake while secretly letting it spread with the goal of herd immunity) get back to normal Aussies will face the grim realization they just prolonged the agony unnecessarily. 

[simple1]

10 minutes ago, TopDeadSenter said:

Well if Australia has 100% eradicated covid and can close its borders forever, with no exceptions, then it is a great policy. You will be forever safe from the virus.

 With the total isolation policy your economy is trashed, shortages will be desperate.  As countries with realistic policies such as the UK, most of the EU and USA (pretending to try eradication to calm the generation snowflake while secretly letting it spread with the goal of herd immunity) get back to normal Aussies will face the grim realization they just prolonged the agony unnecessarily. 

Australia does not have a total isolation policy.

 

As you are using terms such as 'snowflakes' with people you disagree with and nonsensical conspiracy theories not wasting anymore of my time to respond to you.

Edited April 19, 2020 by simple1

[samran]

53 minutes ago, TopDeadSenter said:

Well if Australia has 100% eradicated covid and can close its borders forever, with no exceptions, then it is a great policy. You will be forever safe from the virus.

 With the total isolation policy your economy is trashed, shortages will be desperate.  As countries with realistic policies such as the UK, most of the EU and USA (pretending to try eradication to calm the generation snowflake while secretly letting it spread with the goal of herd immunity) get back to normal Aussies will face the grim realization they just prolonged the agony unnecessarily. 

Oh, so cute. Look everyone, he pulled out a ‘snowflake’ jibe. 
 

One alt-right bonus point for you sonny!

Edited April 19, 2020 by samran

[sukhumvitneon]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Think about it. We have no immunity to Corona ( except the few that have had it and survived ). What happens when lockdown ends and everyone starts to mingle again?

Does anyone think an endless lockdown till/ if a vaccine becomes available is possible?

It works on a sliding scale, what's more important? Money/economy/pleasure vs. human lives?  At what point are we sacrificing too much on one end to save the other?  I'm sure glad I'm not the one charged with making the decision on this

[sucit]

Then what is the plan at the end of the year? Hope that a single case does not fly in? Hope for a vaccine? 

[sucit]

4 minutes ago, sukhumvitneon said:

It works on a sliding scale, what's more important? Money/economy/pleasure vs. human lives?  At what point are we sacrificing too much on one end to save the other?  I'm sure glad I'm not the one charged with making the decision on this

The part nobody is considering for some reason is locking down kills people too. 

 

We are going to need to go through some self inflicted pain to get through this. Think of it like owing the mafia money. Can you just hide forever? Probably not. You gotta stand up and face the music the best you can to get through it. 

Edited April 19, 2020 by sucit

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, samran said:

I have thought about it. 
 

Both countries can’t influence what happens very much outside of their borders, but within the borders they can do plenty. 
 

NZs explicit goal is eradication. You got off the mark quickly and it seems possible. Australia is looking beat it right back and then isolate pockets of what is left. But the biproduct  is likely to be eradication as well.

 

What next? Reopen the domestic economy. Keep the borders locked tight and wait for the vaccine. Well that is the stated plan (which by the way should keep all the anti-globalists on TV very happy!) 

 

So here’s my conspiracy theory FWIW. People talk about herd immunity. There is no guarantee that it will work with this (people are being reinfected and other strains mutate). But say it really is a thing. 
 

My bet is that Australia and NZ know that the rest of the world is going to do a poor job at handling this pandemic. We only have to look over the pacific to see what a sterling job Donnie is doing. 
 

So they are going to let the rest of the world catch it, build up a level of immunity and wait till it burns itself out. It still might take 2 or 3 more years.
 

If it doesn’t work, the at least we’ve had the time to build up our emergency and intensive care systems  so they aren’t overwhelmed and we can’t treat people effectively while we reopen our economy. 

It isn’t a perfect answer, but none of this will be. 

 

 

No one has mentioned carriers so far. There is no eradication possible, IMO.

Given the amount of stuff we no longer make, like paracetamol and other drugs, many things have to be imported- good luck with the quarantine. NZ government is trying to keep Air NZ alive- presumably to fly overseas.

Will they restart immigration- I'm waiting on that one.

NZ universities depend on overseas students- will they allow them to close for lack of funds, and if not, where is the money coming from?

NZ depends on exports to survive. Other countries won't buy our stuff if we don't buy theirs. The Kiwifruit harvest is under way and we ain't going to eat all of them in NZ. Our freezing works have a mountain of meat to sell overseas, etc. NZ isn't self contained as so many industries closed in the 80s. We have to trade to survive.

 

One solution would be for NZ and Oz to join as one country/ federation. I've always been for that, but most are not. Perhaps, if things get bad enough.

 

It's a good chance to rebuild NZ with all the unemployed, but will they?

 

I'm far more worried about what happens after, than I am about now. That's when the reality will sink in.

 

So many small businesses are going to be closed, the town I live in may end up with takeaway shops and little else other than government offices.

 

I can hardly believe that just 5 weeks ago life was normal.

[sucit]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

No one has mentioned carriers so far. There is no eradication possible, IMO.

Given the amount of stuff we no longer make, like paracetamol and other drugs, many things have to be imported- good luck with the quarantine. NZ government is trying to keep Air NZ alive- presumably to fly overseas.

Will they restart immigration- I'm waiting on that one.

NZ universities depend on overseas students- will they allow them to close for lack of funds, and if not, where is the money coming from?

NZ depends on exports to survive. Other countries won't buy our stuff if we don't buy theirs. The Kiwifruit harvest is under way and we ain't going to eat all of them in NZ. Our freezing works have a mountain of meat to sell overseas, etc. NZ isn't self contained as so many industries closed in the 80s. We have to trade to survive.

 

One solution would be for NZ and Oz to join as one country/ federation. I've always been for that, but most are not. Perhaps, if things get bad enough.

 

It's a good chance to rebuild NZ with all the unemployed, but will they?

 

I'm far more worried about what happens after, than I am about now. That's when the reality will sink in.

 

So many small businesses are going to be closed, the town I live in may end up with takeaway shops and little else other than government offices.

 

I can hardly believe that just 5 weeks ago life was normal.

Of course eradication is impossible. Understanding that is the easy part. Convincing the public at large if that and telling them they are going to have to deal with it seems to be the difficult part. 

[sukhumvitneon]

32 minutes ago, sucit said:

The part nobody is considering for some reason is locking down kills people too. 

 

We are going to need to go through some self inflicted pain to get through this. Think of it like owing the mafia money. Can you just hide forever? Probably not. You gotta stand up and face the music the best you can to get through it. 

I agree, but I don't see it working out this way in the west.  People on this site derided the herd immunity method but that's probably the best option considering the circumstances.

[Lacessit]

5 hours ago, TopDeadSenter said:

Well if Australia has 100% eradicated covid and can close its borders forever, with no exceptions, then it is a great policy. You will be forever safe from the virus.

 With the total isolation policy your economy is trashed, shortages will be desperate.  As countries with realistic policies such as the UK, most of the EU and USA (pretending to try eradication to calm the generation snowflake while secretly letting it spread with the goal of herd immunity) get back to normal Aussies will face the grim realization they just prolonged the agony unnecessarily. 

You really think 39,000 deaths and counting in the USA alone is preferable to the 70 that have occurred in Australia? Face it, Australia and New Zealand got ahead of the WHO and are containing COVID-19 spread successfully. Your hero Trump botched the initial response so badly you now have 22 million unemployed, close to the entire population of Australia.

You are one sick and deluded person if you think the US will come out of this better than Australia. If it wasn't for the state governors, Trump would have caused even more deaths.

If you think herd immunity is such a great idea, why don't you get out there and infect yourself. Put your body where your mouth is.

[samran]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

No one has mentioned carriers so far. There is no eradication possible, IMO.

Given the amount of stuff we no longer make, like paracetamol and other drugs, many things have to be imported- good luck with the quarantine. NZ government is trying to keep Air NZ alive- presumably to fly overseas.

Will they restart immigration- I'm waiting on that one.

NZ universities depend on overseas students- will they allow them to close for lack of funds, and if not, where is the money coming from?

NZ depends on exports to survive. Other countries won't buy our stuff if we don't buy theirs. The Kiwifruit harvest is under way and we ain't going to eat all of them in NZ. Our freezing works have a mountain of meat to sell overseas, etc. NZ isn't self contained as so many industries closed in the 80s. We have to trade to survive.

 

One solution would be for NZ and Oz to join as one country/ federation. I've always been for that, but most are not. Perhaps, if things get bad enough.

 

It's a good chance to rebuild NZ with all the unemployed, but will they?

 

I'm far more worried about what happens after, than I am about now. That's when the reality will sink in.

 

So many small businesses are going to be closed, the town I live in may end up with takeaway shops and little else other than government offices.

 

I can hardly believe that just 5 weeks ago life was normal.

It’s already been mooted that Australia and NZ will be first to open movement of people up. After all we are effectively a single market.
 

Trade has always been going on - granted global demand has fallen off a cliff, and there is nothing Australian and NZ government can do about it. 
 

The ships are still sailing but airfreight often piggy backs off passengers sitting upstairs, so that means in the interim there might be a consolidation of airfreight on non passenger flights. 

 

If exports decrease then our currencies fall as a result, making them cheaper for foreigners - basically the floating currency we have are external economic shock absorbers and that is the genius of them. 

 

Here’s an article you may find of interest. 
 

https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-wasn-t-planned-but-australia-is-on-the-verge-of-an-exciting-possibility-20200416-p54kld.html

Edited April 19, 2020 by samran

[samran]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

You really think 39,000 deaths and counting in the USA alone is preferable to the 70 that have occurred in Australia?

They'll never admit it, but that is what they imply...

[Odysseus123]

1 hour ago, samran said:

They'll never admit it, but that is what they imply...

Oh yes they certainly do so.

That is because they feel that their Spencerian principles of "survival of the fittest" represents "freedom" whilst Social Utilitarianism "the greatest good for the greatest number" is merely a commie plot to subjugate the entire world.

 

The United States,has,of course,been the main embracer of Herbert Spencer's political and social philosophy for well over a century which accounts for its ramshackle and dysfunctional Social Security and medical systems-and its "presidential" reaction to the current crises.

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, samran said:

If exports decrease then our currencies fall as a result, making them cheaper for foreigners - basically the floating currency we have are external economic shock absorbers and that is the genius of them. 

The greatest fear I have for the future is that the government will be so desperate for overseas funds that they open up the country to foreign ownership. If that happens we could lose almost everything to foreign influence.

It was bad enough before, but that could be nothing in comparison to the possible future.

[thaibeachlovers]

10 hours ago, Odysseus123 said:

Oh yes they certainly do so.

That is because they feel that their Spencerian principles of "survival of the fittest" represents "freedom" whilst Social Utilitarianism "the greatest good for the greatest number" is merely a commie plot to subjugate the entire world.

 

The United States,has,of course,been the main embracer of Herbert Spencer's political and social philosophy for well over a century which accounts for its ramshackle and dysfunctional Social Security and medical systems-and its "presidential" reaction to the current crises.

You write as though "greatest good for the greatest number" was actually happening. I don't know where you live, but in my world it's always been everything for the rich and the poor can have the crumbs. Even in that socialist utopia of China, there are more billionaires than the rest of the world, or so I'm told. Indisputably, there are many unusually rich in a country that was almost universally poor not so many decades ago.

[thaibeachlovers]

10 hours ago, Odysseus123 said:

The United States,has,of course,been the main embracer of Herbert Spencer's political and social philosophy for well over a century which accounts for its ramshackle and dysfunctional Social Security and medical systems

Perhaps so, but they were the only country capable of saving the western Pacific ( including the country I call home ) from the Japanese war machine. If Herbert Spencer is responsible for that, then millions of us are in debt to him.

[thaibeachlovers]

18 hours ago, sukhumvitneon said:

It works on a sliding scale, what's more important? Money/economy/pleasure vs. human lives?  At what point are we sacrificing too much on one end to save the other?  I'm sure glad I'm not the one charged with making the decision on this

We've already sacrificed too much and it's only been 3 1/2 weeks.

I'm not going into the details, which have been well debated, but it's time to try and rescue what is left of the economy. Poverty will kill more than the virus.

[thaibeachlovers]

18 hours ago, sucit said:

Then what is the plan at the end of the year? Hope that a single case does not fly in? Hope for a vaccine? 

I don't think they have a plan. IMO they are just making it up as they go.

A plan existed- do what they did in 1918, but not acceptable, apparently.

[thaibeachlovers]

18 hours ago, sucit said:

The part nobody is considering for some reason is locking down kills people too. 

NZ just had it's first lockdown related death not caused by the virus. A man went crazy and the cops shot him. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12325942

How many will be found to have died because they couldn't get needed hospital treatment? How many will die of poverty caused by the lockdown?

The government will have to answer for many things after this is over.