Are lockdowns worth their costs?

[Fairynuff]

58 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

probably out of arguments,

And YOU talk about deflecting! ????????????

[TheDark]

1 hour ago, mauGR1 said:

I did a math, since January 2020 apparently there is about 0,0148 chance to die from coronavirus.

For a comparison, apparently one has about 0,685 chances to die from cancer.

Not sure the numbers are correct, so feel free to correct.

Looking at these numbers, are the lock downs worth ?

So, by your math, Since January 2020 there is 1.48% chance of dying from coronavirus and 68.5% chance of dying from cancer. 

 

Those are rather big numbers.  Care to tell, what sources did you use and show us your math as well.

 

[scubascuba3]

1 hour ago, Fairynuff said:

Economics don’t matter to dead people

and that's the problem people don't understand the economic consequences, they seem to be only able to count the dead

[Brunolem]

3 minutes ago, TheDark said:

So, by your math, Since January 2020 there is 1.48% chance of dying from coronavirus and 68.5% chance of dying from cancer. 

 

Those are rather big numbers.  Care to tell, what sources did you use and show us your math as well.

 

One can imagine that he forgot to type %, as in 0.1% for covid 19 and 0.68% for cancer...or something like that...

[TheDark]

1 minute ago, Brunolem said:

One can imagine that he forgot to type %, as in 0.1% for covid 19 and 0.68% for cancer...or something like that...

If someone claims that she has done the math, I do expect this person to be proficient enough to use the correct ways to display the results. 

 

That's also why I asked to see the source data as well as how the math was done.

 

Math is beautiful as it's either correct or incorrect. So, let us see the math now.

[mauGR1]

4 minutes ago, TheDark said:

So, by your math, Since January 2020 there is 1.48% chance of dying from coronavirus and 68.5% chance of dying from cancer. 

 

Those are rather big numbers.  Care to tell, what sources did you use and show us your math as well.

 

No sorry, i am admittedly bad at math, and i was hoping for someone to confirm or correct my calculations.

I just googled the number of the virus victims (in 3 months) the world's average yearly deaths, and the world's average yearly cancer deaths ( divided by 4)

Not willing to win any argument here, honestly, but you know already that i am not in favour of a prolonged lock down.

[chessman]

4 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

and that's the problem people don't understand the economic consequences, they seem to be only able to count the dead

And some people don’t understand this is not a simple choice between lives and the economy. Our economies will continue to suffer until there is a solution to the public health crises. 

[NoshowJones]

On 4/26/2020 at 2:29 PM, Valorian said:

Just hope the world won't follow the 1930s scenario.

As long as there are no warmongers like Blair around.

[Krataiboy]

On 4/26/2020 at 10:23 AM, Sujo said:

Depends how much you value life over money.

 

How many dead is acceptable.

Basically, the choice is between a short, sharp shock or a long-drawn-out death by a thousand cuts. Either way the virus will run its course, targeting mostly the elderly and health-impaired, as flu epidemics do every year without causing such economic and social upheaval.

 

Clearly, governments and the health technocrats pulling their strings know this. What is less clear is why nothing being done to ward off a predicted second-wave virus attack on ill-equipped care homes, whose elderly and infirm residents have borne the brunt of COVID 19.

 

Politicians may regard them as a drain on the economy. But to the families that love and treasure them, they are a priceless asset which deserves our protection.

Edited April 28, 2020 by Krataiboy

[scubascuba3]

23 minutes ago, chessman said:

And some people don’t understand this is not a simple choice between lives and the economy. Our economies will continue to suffer until there is a solution to the public health crises. 

This is about lives vs lives. In the UK because of the priority of Corona cases, people aren't being diagnosed with cancer, strokes, heart problems etc, probably the same problem in all countries being so focused on Corona

[Thingamabob]

On 4/26/2020 at 9:22 AM, tonray said:

I'm alive and healthy and am saving at least 10,000 baht per month on spending...so YES !

Me, me, me....

[CygnusX1]

People are saying that we’ll never know what would have happened without a lockdown, which is probably true for the US and Europe, but is it correct for Thailand? Millions of Chinese were pouring into the country in January and February, many from Wuhan. Posters here accused the Thai Govt of covering up cases, but the evidence doesn’t seem to show that. So why didn’t cases of China virus explode back then, even before Italy? Masks can’t have been the reason, as I noticed only a few people wearing them back then, and when I left the country in early March they still weren’t mandatory. Suggests that heat and/or humidity would have kept cases low in Thailand, even without the current lockdown.

[Thingamabob]

The most important statistic is not reported anywhere, namely the numbers of people dying with corona versus the numbers of people dying of corona.

[Brunolem]

10 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

What is less clear is why nothing being done to ward off a predicted second-wave virus attack on ill-equipped care homes, whose elderly and infirm residents have borne the brunt of COVID 19.

 

Politicians may regard them as a drain on the economy. 

Because they want a second wave!

 

First, that will reinforce their mantra that a vaccine, any vaccine, is needed now...forget the tests, they will be done live, on the hapless populations.

 

Then, the elderlies, at least those who draw a retirement pension, are the biggest problem faced by the developed world.

 

Pension funds are underfunded to the tune of tens of trillions, and no one has any idea of how to deal with this massive problem...enter the coronavirus...

 

 

[Brunolem]

5 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

The most important statistic is not reported anywhere, namely the numbers of people dying with corona versus the numbers of people dying of corona.

For "with", have a look at Western Europe and the US.

 

For "of" have a look at Russia and East Asia.

 

The difference: tens of thousands are dying with coronavirus, while hundreds are dying of coronavirus.

 

 

 

[Zillod]

Covid lock-down has given the Greenies everything they asked for... Planet saved, they can be ignored now.  Covid lock-down has give the Marxists a trial run of their green new deal.  So everyone knows what they're buying if they vote for that.  Nationalism, controlled borders has saved the day.  Obviously we can learn from that.  Flattening the curve is about adjusting the infection rate to keep the hospitals running at full capacity.  More testing is the catch cry of people who can't solve Sudoku.  We can make logical deductions and valid assumptions from select data samples without needing to test everyone.  We have learned (yet again) not to trust computer models.  We saw how well that worked with climate change.  We have learned that everything is political and therefore the fear-mongering is deliberate.  We need to stop comparing Covid deaths to immortality.  The natural cycle of life claimed 2.9 million lives in the USA last year.  That's an average of nearly 8000 per day.  To advocate extended lock-down is just another form of virtue signalling.   Covid death statistics are starting to converge with normal flu.  Latest studies in California show that millions more have silently recovered and didn't know they had it.  

[UbonThani]

57 minutes ago, TheDark said:

So, by your math, Since January 2020 there is 1.48% chance of dying from coronavirus and 68.5% chance of dying from cancer. 

 

Those are rather big numbers.  Care to tell, what sources did you use and show us your math as well.

 

what? he said nothing of the sort

[BobBKK]

On 4/26/2020 at 10:47 AM, jvs said:

Here in Thailand imo a lot of lives have been saved because of the lockdown(alkohol ban)

Fewer traffic deaths for sure.

We will not be able to make up a balance before this is all over.

If i remember correctly the lockdown in many countries is to prevent an overburden of people in the

hospitals.This seems to me a good idea.

On the other hand ,you can not lock down people without helping them to survive.

You need to give money and food and shelter.

Now desperate hungry people are turning to suicide.

No one knows how and when or even if this is going to end,economies the world over are being hurt very badly.

Next is the discussion what the topic is about,again nobody knows.

Do we have to bail out airlines by giving them billions?

Do we have to bail out very big companies who never pay taxes?

I think we all need to take a few steps back and that means we will not need all those airplanes for the next ten years or so.

This is one of the biggest crisis we have had in modern times.

I think by now we are all aware this is not just another flu.

I do not think this is something some one did on purpose but other people think differently.

Interesting times .

Taiwan 6 deaths no lockdown.

[mauGR1]

6 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

what? he said nothing of the sort

Yes, actually i checked my post again, apparently he cannot even read the numbers.

[chessman]

24 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

The most important statistic is not reported anywhere, namely the numbers of people dying with corona versus the numbers of people dying of corona.

This is not being borne out by looking at comparative death data from different countries. In most countries, the number of people dying this year is more than the average number of deaths for that period + reported Covid deaths. This suggests that actually deaths are being underreported.

[Brunolem]

9 minutes ago, Zillod said:

We can make logical deductions and valid assumptions from select data samples without needing to test everyone. 

 

We have learned (yet again) not to trust computer models.  

Of course, we do it all the time with surveys!

 

Select a thousand individuals and that's enough to draw conclusions for the whole country.

 

But NOT for the coronavirus, because more time is needed to prove the wrong predictions were right, and also to give time to Herr Doktor Bill to find a vaccine, any vaccine, but all these syringes must be used for god sake!

 

Computer models are based on AI, which should be renamed AS, and not only because of the predictions regarding the virus.

[mauGR1]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

And some people don’t understand this is not a simple choice between lives and the economy. Our economies will continue to suffer until there is a solution to the public health crises. 

And some people don't understand that if people cannot work, they cannot pay taxes, and there will be no money to pay the pensions for the elders, and no money for the public health too.

 

[Krataiboy]

23 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Because they want a second wave!

 

First, that will reinforce their mantra that a vaccine, any vaccine, is needed now...forget the tests, they will be done live, on the hapless populations.

 

Then, the elderlies, at least those who draw a retirement pension, are the biggest problem faced by the developed world.

 

Pension funds are underfunded to the tune of tens of trillions, and no one has any idea of how to deal with this massive problem...enter the coronavirus...

 

 

Whether by accident or design, the debut of this new coronavirus is certainly a godsend to the political establishment for many reasons, one of which you have rightly highlighted.

 

It occurs to me that had you attempted to voice your opinion either on MSM or social media in my homeland (UK), you might have found yourself in hot water. Yes, establishment control of the public discourse is another "perk" of the virus!

 

 

[otherstuff1957]

IMHO countries like Thailand, Cambodia and India should start phasing out the lockdown.  They have very low rates of infection and death and their economies cannot cover the social cost of the lockdown.

 

European and North American countries, on the other hand, should be more cautious about opening up.  The infection and death rates are much higher there and the death toll might skyrocket if too many people come into contact with each other. 

 

The politicians are weighing the economic price of lockdown verses the political price of unleashing the "boomer remover" in their countries.  I suspect that they will mostly err on the side of caution.  No politician wants be be confronted by people complaining about their dead parents & grandparents at their next campaign rally!

[Brunolem]

5 minutes ago, otherstuff1957 said:

IMHO countries like Thailand, Cambodia and India should start phasing out the lockdown.  They have very low rates of infection and death and their economies cannot cover the social cost of the lockdown.

 

European and North American countries, on the other hand, should be more cautious about opening up.  The infection and death rates are much higher there and the death toll might skyrocket if too many people come into contact with each other. 

 

And yet the opposite is about to happen.

 

Countries still with hundreds of daily fatalities are reopening, while others with a few dozens fatalities in total are pussyfooting around.

 

Insane times in an insane world...

[chessman]

53 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

And some people don't understand that if people cannot work, they cannot pay taxes, and there will be no money to pay the pensions for the elders, and no money for the public health too.

 

And many will not be able to work whatever the Thai government decide to do with their lockdown. This is a balancing act, between health and the economy. Extremes on either side (open up now, keep locked down until zero cases) are both likely to be wrong.

[roquefort]

On 4/26/2020 at 4:23 AM, Sujo said:

Depends how much you value life over money.

 

How many dead is acceptable.

It's not life over money, it's lives over lives.

 

More people will die from the response to this virus than from the virus itself. Suicides, cancer patients having treatments cancelled, long term health effects from overeating and lack of exercise.......the list is endless. Without a functioning economy there is no life (unless you happen to be in the 1% who don't need to work for a living).

[yuyiinthesky]

Are lockdowns worth their costs?
Absolutely not!

[yuyiinthesky]

3 hours ago, Zillod said:

Flattening the curve is about adjusting the infection rate to keep the hospitals running at full capacity.

Many hospitals around the globe are not only empty, but they have to fire doctors and nurses. Patients with the need for medical care are not getting it, all is blocked for the Covid patients, which are mostly not coming.
Absolutely no benefit of these flattening attempts except destroying besides the economy now also the healthcare systems.

[Skeptic7]

In a word...NO. 

In 3 words...not worth it.