UK on track to become one of Europe's worst hit in COVID-19 pandemic

[Logosone]

With New Zealand, again it is clear that testing made the difference. 

 

As for Vietnam, as with all the Asian countries the numbers can't be trusted.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

Edited April 30, 2020 by Logosone

[Nigel Garvie]

56 minutes ago, Logosone said:

With New Zealand, again it is clear that testing made the difference. 

 

As for Vietnam, as with all the Asian countries the numbers can't be trusted.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

Sound aspects to your argument, but we have to remember the golden rule,  correlation is not causation.It is very difficult to back up any claim, statistically that social distancing hasn't worked. But the countries that have adopted it generally believe that it is at least a part of their success. Testing and tracing looks to be very important indeed. Why are we so pathetically inadequate (UK) on this front. 

 

It appears that Dominic Cummings is the man in control, he has the blustering Bojo eating out of his hand, and has already awarded his pals with big contracts.

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Sound aspects to your argument, but we have to remember the golden rule,  correlation is not causation.It is very difficult to back up any claim, statistically that social distancing hasn't worked. But the countries that have adopted it generally believe that it is at least a part of their success. Testing and tracing looks to be very important indeed. Why are we so pathetically inadequate (UK) on this front. 

 

It appears that Dominic Cummings is the man in control, he has the blustering Bojo eating out of his hand, and has already awarded his pals with big contracts.

Indeed, and this works both ways of course, it is very difficult to back up any claim statistically that social distancing is what caused any reduction in transmission, just because social distancing was done does not mean it caused any reduction in transmission. It is very true that we need deep and far-reaching studies that settle once and for all what measures caused what percentage of reduction in transmission. The problem of course will be that various measures are, in desperation, thrown at the virus simultaneously. When Chinese academics tried to ascertain it they admitted they could not untangle the specifics.

 

You're no worse in the UK than anywhere else, your experts just accepted PHE's word that no tests were available, instead of getting small biotech companies to produce tests. So the UK had a late start. Good progress with testing though and it's clearly been a top priority for some time.

 

Personally I don't think Neil Ferguson was all he was cracked up to be.

[3NUMBAS]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11525388/germany-new-coronavirus-infections-five-day-high-warning-bring-back-lockdown/

 

GERMANY faces bringing back a stricter lockdown after new coronavirus infections reached a five-day high and saw a spike in the daily death toll. 

The country has been easing its lockdown after faring better than its European neighbours following an aggressive policy of Covid-19 mass testing.

 

[3NUMBAS]

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-52492662?__twitter_impression=true

 

Coronavirus patients from black African backgrounds in England and Wales are dying at more than triple the rate of white Britons, a study suggests.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said a higher proportion of people from ethnic minority backgrounds live in areas hit harder by Covid-19.

However, they tend to be younger on average, so should be less vulnerable.

But the report found various black, Asian and minority ethnic groups were experiencing higher per capita deaths.

And after accounting for differences in age, sex and geography, the study estimated that the death rate for people of black African heritage was 3.5 times higher than for white Britons.

It added that for people of black Caribbean heritage, per capita deaths were 1.7 times higher, rising to 2.7 times higher for those with Pakistani heritage.

The IFS study said given demographic and geographic profiles, most minority ethnic groups are dying in "excess" numbers in hospitals.

[stevenl]

1 minute ago, 3NUMBAS said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-52492662?__twitter_impression=true

 

Coronavirus patients from black African backgrounds in England and Wales are dying at more than triple the rate of white Britons, a study suggests.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said a higher proportion of people from ethnic minority backgrounds live in areas hit harder by Covid-19.

However, they tend to be younger on average, so should be less vulnerable.

But the report found various black, Asian and minority ethnic groups were experiencing higher per capita deaths.

And after accounting for differences in age, sex and geography, the study estimated that the death rate for people of black African heritage was 3.5 times higher than for white Britons.

It added that for people of black Caribbean heritage, per capita deaths were 1.7 times higher, rising to 2.7 times higher for those with Pakistani heritage.

The IFS study said given demographic and geographic profiles, most minority ethnic groups are dying in "excess" numbers in hospitals.

Could be related to heritage, but Asian death numbers show a different picture. Could also be related to lifestyle, access to health care and other issues.

[cdnvic]

There's a thin line between discussing a report about varying effects of disease on different communities and making unsubstantiated claims and broad generalizations about ethnic groups. Don't cross that line.

[Nigel Garvie]

On 5/1/2020 at 9:15 PM, stevenl said:

Could be related to heritage, but Asian death numbers show a different picture. Could also be related to lifestyle, access to health care and other issues.

Yes there is a vast amount of information to unravel to get anywhere near the truth on this. Sociology is important, where it points to environmental factors such as deprivation. People living in the Gorbals have a life expectancy 10/15 years less than those living in Bearsden or Morningside for example. The reality of ethnic differences in genetic terms cannot be overlooked, but takes a long time to establish. This is not racist, just a statement of fact, for example the high incidence of diabetes in Thailand. The much higher incidence of liver problems in South Asia, - Japan and China -  in particular. DNA often has a big part to play.

 

Whatever additional factors may be in play, it is impossible IMHO to avoid accepting that the utter inadequacy of the UKGOV leaders performance is the main one, in this instance. 

 

These succinct words come - as they so often do - from John Gracie. Commenting on Boris returning to the public TV covid reporting.

"But deep down, Boris knows he’s met his match. Up till now, he’s never found a situation in his life which he couldn’t bluster his way out of. Now he’s come up against a power greater than himself; coronavirus is so far immune to almost everything, in a straight contest between coronavirus and bs, the coronavirus wins every time."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/30/breathless-boris-is-left-floundering-as-he-faces-foe-he-cant-outbluster