21 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Ah yes, I saw this before, but didn't play much. Yearly pneumonia deaths from there:

 

2017: 19,105

2018: 19,159

2019: 20,191

2020 so far: 11,168

 

It's definitely trending up. Let's do a quick&dirty linear approximation for 2020: 12/4.5*11000 = 29k deaths or so. That'd be about 9k more than previous year, so it seems significant.

They other thing to keep in mind is that the flu season in Thailand has not even started yet.

 

Thailand's flu season usually coincides with its wet season, around June and October each year. So adds more weight that this year is going to be a significant rise. 

51 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Ah yes, I saw this before, but didn't play much. Yearly pneumonia deaths from there:

 

2017: 19,105

2018: 19,159

2019: 20,191

2020 so far: 11,168

 

It's definitely trending up. Let's do a quick&dirty linear approximation for 2020: 12/4.5*11000 = 29k deaths or so. That'd be about 9k more than previous year, so it seems significant.

 

EDIT: And yes seems Bangkok is excluded. 

In other official reports of death data in Thailand with attribution, it seems that influenza a and b are separate categories from pneumonia. Do you see any separate data for those? 

8 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

In other official reports of death data in Thailand with attribution, it seems that influenza a and b are separate categories from pneumonia. Do you see any separate data for those? 

Doesn't hit me in the eye immediately. Here's information of the disease classification system in Thailand: http://thcc.or.th/ebook_shelf.html

 

EDIT: disease code 168, Influenza, 104 deaths in Thailand in 2020 so far, excluding Bangkok.

 

You can use chrome's translate to English and surf away at https://hdcservice.moph.go.th/hdc/reports/report.php?source=formated/death298.php&cat_id=491672679818600345dc1833920051b2&id=b4ea22252bb533f3f9225dfcab83d43a

Edited May 6, 20206 yr by DrTuner

Dr Tuner,,,,,,,,where are you ?

In Bangkok the 3 Wats that have crematoriums I pass everyday, I see no sign of increased deaths 

16 minutes ago, natway09 said:

Dr Tuner,,,,,,,,where are you ?

In Bangkok the 3 Wats that have crematoriums I pass everyday, I see no sign of increased deaths 

At home of course, it's a lockdown. No crematoriums in my backyard, so need to check the actual numbers from the MoPH stats. 

Edited May 6, 20206 yr by DrTuner

5 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Given the one case came from abroad, we are effectively at zero, so continued restrictions seem somewhat unnecessary. Aside from those already infected, the bug isn't out there to catch.

How do we know? Be interesting to get the view of one of a real "health expert" on whether the virus has died a natural death or is just lurking and waiting to strike once the social restrictions are relaxed. You'd think one of the Thai papers would run an op-ed.

 

Ah, well. . .  fingers crossed.

Interesting topic, seems to be the same people posting the same things for the last 2 months, or am I replying to an old thread? So confused......

9 minutes ago, sungod said:

Interesting topic, seems to be the same people posting the same things for the last 2 months, or am I replying to an old thread? So confused......

The same important issue remains for more than two months: we are possibly in a dire situation in re the local risk of Covid-19 and are profoundly concerned that the Thai officials are not being sufficiently open with the actual public health data. 

26 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

The same important issue remains for more than two months: we are possibly in a dire situation in re the local risk of Covid-19 and are profoundly concerned that the Thai officials are not being sufficiently open with the actual public health data. 

Looks like they have done a good job so far, Europe looks terrible.

7 minutes ago, sungod said:

Looks like they have done a good job so far, Europe looks terrible.

Looks like it.

8 minutes ago, sungod said:

Looks like they have done a good job so far, Europe looks terrible.

Please tell me what exactly they have done better than others.

6 hours ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

I read there have been over 11,000 deaths so far in 2020 caused by Pneumonia and not including BKK

I’d really like to know where you read that.

3 minutes ago, bluedoc said:

I’d really like to know where you read that.

See top row of data labeled "ปอดบวม"

 

https://hdcservice.moph.go.th/hdc/reports/report_eis.php?source=formated/death298.php&cat_id=491672679818600345dc1833920051b2&id=b4ea22252bb533f3f9225dfcab83d43a

 

Edited May 6, 20206 yr by JCP108
hearing voices

4 minutes ago, bluedoc said:

I’d really like to know where you read that.

.

Edited May 6, 20206 yr by JCP108
mistake

9 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Please tell me what exactly they have done better than others.

They are hiding the public health data pretty well.

41 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Please tell me what exactly they have done better than others.

Its lost on you isnt it?

44 minutes ago, bluedoc said:

I’d really like to know where you read that.

It's the Ministry of Public Health's (MoPH) own website, apparently some project related to Thailand v4.0 that has a page (see posts above) where you can query for causes of death for provinces outside Bangkok. They left a hole in the Great Information Wall. And the data does not look comforting.

 

HDC, the project, seems to be managed by this agency: http://bps.moph.go.th/new_bps/สถิติสาธาณสุข . They have blocked the access to the death/birth repo, but forgot to plug that hole. Let's see how long it stays open.

 

Here are the reports HDC has made available for deaths: https://hdcservice.moph.go.th/hdc/reports/page.php?cat_id=491672679818600345dc1833920051b2

 

This data seems to come directly from MoPH's vital statistics database, so it should be as reliable as the death certificates are.

 

11,168 for pneumonia, excluding Bangkok, in 2020. I will try again tomorrow to see if it updates.

Edited May 6, 20206 yr by DrTuner

18 minutes ago, sungod said:

Its lost on you isnt it?

Enlighten us please, because besides the hot weather I really don't know what kind of great strategy has been used.

South Korean for example never locked down but they did extended mass testing.

Edited May 6, 20206 yr by Anton9

Time flies, almost four months since I started digging into Thailand's testing capabilities:

 

 

It's still murky, although I've learned more than I ever wanted to know about MoPH and it's subdivisions. Best indication of real capabilities so far seems to be this:

 

My take is, there are qualified doctors at MoPH and DDC, but their efforts are hampered by the usurpers. As long as they keep on going "too expensive", "she'll be right", etc, getting out of the lockdown stage will be impossible.

 

Again, recommended "light" reading: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-learning-how-to-dance-b8420170203e

2 hours ago, bluedoc said:

I’d really like to know where you read that.

https://hdcservice.moph.go.th/hdc/reports/report_eis.php?source=formated/death298.php&cat_id=491672679818600345dc1833920051b2&id=b4ea22252bb533f3f9225dfcab83d43a

Edited May 6, 20206 yr by DirtyHarry55

35 minutes ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

https://hdcservice.moph.go.th/hdc/reports/report_eis.php?source=formated/death298.php&cat_id=491672679818600345dc1833920051b2&id=b4ea22252bb533f3f9225dfcab83d43a

Quite a bit of bleeding in the brain going on, too!

15 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Quite a bit of bleeding in the brain going on, too!

Yea seems like quite a popular way to go and quite a few with no code but just shows ya it wouldn't be a problem to hide a few.

3 hours ago, DrTuner said:

11,168 for pneumonia, excluding Bangkok, in 2020. I will try again tomorrow to see if it updates.

This is for the budget year - 1 October  - 30 September. Assuming that includes April, 11,168 cases is for 7 months. The previous year was 20191 cases. So the death rate due to pneumonia is about the same as the same as the previous year. 

12 hours ago, Anton9 said:

Enlighten us please, because besides the hot weather I really don't know what kind of great strategy has been used.

South Korean for example never locked down but they did extended mass testing.

hmmm, tough one.

 

Less dead?

10 hours ago, DavisH said:

This is for the budget year - 1 October  - 30 September. Assuming that includes April, 11,168 cases is for 7 months. The previous year was 20191 cases. So the death rate due to pneumonia is about the same as the same as the previous year. 

It does seem to be a report for budgeting, I didn't notice the period of the report explicitly mentioned, except the year itself in the selector. I also noticed there's a tool for monitoring the inflow of death reports and there seems to be quite a few files not yet submitted. And unfortunately it's excluding BKK, probably because they use some other system for transmitting the reports.

 

In any case, taking a daily average from previous years and comparing those to snapshots every 24h will give a tiny peephole into the secret world of MoPH data. As long as they don't hide it behind a login.

 

The figure right now is 11,278, so it seems to be updated in real-time as the reports flow in.

Edited May 7, 20206 yr by DrTuner