Flatten the Curve or Eliminate the Virus?

[NoBrainer]

4 hours ago, johnnybangkok said:

Jesus, talk about false equivalents. 

Amazingly enough, when you lockdown 99% of the population, less people are exposed to other major killers such as road deaths (38,000) other accidents (169,936) and normal flu (55,672) https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm. There is even a trend saying 'allmost half of the respondents reported that they are seeing a 40 percent to 60 percent reduction in admissions for heart attacks'. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/well/live/coronavirus-doctors-hospitals-emergency-care-heart-attack-stroke.html stating 'Maybe we have removed some of the triggers for heart attacks and strokes, like excessive eating and drinking or abrupt periods of physical exertion'.

 

Buy hey, produce a fancy graph that feeds into your echo chamber and I'll sure no one will notice.  

 

Actually in a lot of States in the USA, and some European countries, all of the missing deaths you are talking about (with the exception of Auto accidents0 are still occurring. They are just being reported as Covid 19 deaths. Some intentionally in order to receive more government funds, (same as putting people on ventilators, knowing it will not help them, & most likely even kill them sooner) as well as, many where people were in fact infected with Covid 19, but it was not the actual cause of death.

So taking that into account, the numbers, if skewed at all, it is by a very small margin.

[mauGR1]

42 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

You haven't asked yourself why suddenly no one is talking about the common flu which kills >300k worldwide every year? 

Good question, there are a lots of questions about this virus.

[NoBrainer]

4 hours ago, tlock said:

Can you provide the original link?  This is the data I have been looking for but unable to find.  I can't figure out where that is aggregated on the cdc website: https://www.cdc.gov/DataStatistics/

 

 

Hi Tlock

 

I have been doing many hours of reading over the past weeks & i often clip things that i find of interest, but usually don'y pay too much attention to where i got them from.

 

But i had a look and here are a few links that will point you in the right direction. Trying to find info on the CDC site is exhausting (probably intentionally, as they don't want the masses to know everything anyway).

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/mortality-dashboard.htm

 

https://wonder.cdc.gov

 

Wonder is kind of a search tool for all their data  that is the landing page, there is a section of databases in the first column called Mortality.

 

From there, depending which database you choose (you have to agree to terms) and then it takes you to a complex queery tool

 

Hope that helps.

 

Cheers

 

[chessman]

9 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Good question,

A good question to which there is a good answer.

 

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

A good question to which there is a good answer.

 

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

Nah, sorry, i'm no scientist, but i tend to believe those who say this is just a flu.

No offense, feel free to disagree, but the economy problems which we are facing will make this covid thing pale in comparison.

[chessman]

4 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Nah, sorry, i'm no scientist, but i tend to believe those who say this is just a flu.

It’s a very short informative article. A shame if you don’t want answers to the questions you ask. 

[mauGR1]

1 minute ago, chessman said:

It’s a very short informative article. A shame if you don’t want answers to the questions you ask. 

I've watched info which you would call conspiracy all day, and i've made up my mind.

Just look at Thailand, 50 (?) covid deaths, and a whole country shut down, if that makes sense to you, i've got nothing more to say

[chessman]

27 minutes ago, NoBrainer said:

Actually in a lot of States in the USA, and some European countries, all of the missing deaths you are talking about (with the exception of Auto accidents0 are still occurring. They are just being reported as Covid 19 deaths. Some intentionally in order to receive more government funds, (same as putting people on ventilators, knowing it will not help them, & most likely even kill them sooner) as well as, many where people were in fact infected with Covid 19, but it was not the actual cause of death.

So taking that into account, the numbers, if skewed at all, it is by a very small margin.

If this was true then deaths in March and April 2020 would be similar to previous years. But they aren’t.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

[impulse]

3 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Just look at Thailand, 50 (?) covid deaths, and a whole country shut down, if that makes sense to you, i've got nothing more to say

 

Or...

 

Just look at Thailand...  Whole country shut down and just 50 deaths.

 

Edit:  To be clear, I'm glad I'm not King of the World right now, because I don't know the answer...  If the world wants to promote me next year, I'd accept.

 

[mauGR1]

Just now, impulse said:

 

Or...

 

Just look at Thailand...  Whole country shut down and just 50 deaths.

Well, we have reason to believe virus was around since January, even some say earlier, and 50 died.

Sorry for the victims, but they are comparable to a songkran day, or perhaps a week of dengue.

[chessman]

5 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Just look at Thailand, 50 (?) covid deaths, and a whole country shut down, if that makes sense to you, i've got nothing more to say

It makes sense to me, even if I think the measures went too far. 

[mauGR1]

1 minute ago, chessman said:

It makes sense to me, even if I think the measures went too far. 

Suicides don't get reported at all, but i would be willing to bet that there are more than covid victims.

Anyway, in my opinion, the proverbial Pandora's box has been opened, interesting times ahead.

[impulse]

1 minute ago, mauGR1 said:

4 minutes ago, impulse said:

Or...

 

Just look at Thailand...  Whole country shut down and just 50 deaths.

Well, we have reason to believe virus was around since January, even some say earlier, and 50 died.

Sorry for the victims, but they are comparable to a songkran day, or perhaps a week of dengue.

 

The point is that we'll never really know how bad it would have been had they not implemented the shut down.  My gut feeling says that governments around the world are over reacting, some with nefarious intent.  But I'm not smart enough to know, partly because so much of the data is suspect, for various reasons.  Thailand, for example, would want the numbers to be lower to protect tourism.  New York may want higher numbers to increase federal funding...

 

 

[NoBrainer]

1 hour ago, Max69xl said:

You haven't asked yourself why suddenly no one is talking about the common flu which kills >300k worldwide every year? 

 

I think that the SARS COV-2 is the common flu for this season, it's just that it has been genetically modified this year to make it somewhat easier to spread, and able to infect more people than in previous years. It does not seem too much deadlier than the usual seasonal flu though. Of course that is no concession to anyone in the group who have a higher risk of mortality from getting it.

[mauGR1]

3 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

The point is that we'll never really know how bad it would have been had they not implemented the shut down.  My gut feeling says that governments around the world are over reacting, some with nefarious intent.  But I'm not smart enough to know, partly because so much of the data is suspect, for various reasons.  Thailand, for example, would want the numbers to be lower to protect tourism.  New York may want higher numbers to increase federal funding...

 

 

Some blogger have nicknamed covid the "yo-yo virus".

I have some good reason too to believe we are fed misinformation.

..Follow the money..

[Crazy Alex]

Indeed it is about flattening the curve.... just not the curve they're telling us it's about.

[vermin on arrival]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

A good question to which there is a good answer.

 

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

interesting article. Seems like they have been trying to scare people into getting the flu shots. Wth....

[Laza 45]

10 hours ago, vermin on arrival said:

Not true. Taiwan and South Korea never locked down. Some venues were shut like pubs. Taiwan tracked effectively, shut down travel from China early, and had huge amount of mask usage. South Korea tested out the wazoo and masks and quarantine of all entrants. Many different strategies used.

One thing in common.. they all acted quickly... Taiwan learned from SARS and was prepared with a plan in place..  and they listened to their health experts and prepared as best they could.. 

[RJRS1301]

12 hours ago, vermin on arrival said:

Australia, New Zealand and China and Thailand too....all these countries enforced stay at home, social distancing, wearing of masks, hygiene with sanitisers etc.. they have all reached a point now where they can now quickly identify new infections

Australia and NZ have NOT enforced nor recommended face masks.

 

[RJRS1301]

I thought I would share some information regarding my niece who was a fit 35 year old female, with no underlying health issues.

The woman was diagnosed 59 days ago, now considered "recovered".

Still living with ongoing gastrointestinal cramps, ( had to be hospitalised for those following discharge after her initial 14 days treatment), continuing cardiac problems ( which did not exist prior to infection) remains short of breath on exertion, continuing fatigue, problems with balance.

This is a woman who runs a farm, is a volunteer firefighter, and fitness freak, prior to infection with Sar2Covid virus.

 

[4MyEgo]

11 hours ago, Max69xl said:

What do you mean by "eliminate the virus"?  That's not possible, the closest is to get a vaccine developed for the coronavirus, not a cocktail of several vaccines that will work on some patients,but not on all. You haven't asked yourself why suddenly no one is talking about the common flu which kills >300k worldwide every year? 

From post #11

 

"By Flattening the Curve, we are not Eliminating the virus, I don't know who said that, we are maintaining the spread of it, as for how long these measures can stay in place is another thing, because economies will collapse, so what do they do, start it up again and hope that the hospitals are not overwhelmed and herd immunity kicks in, I have no idea, I am just sitting on the fence with the rest of the herd".

 

I know eliminating the virus is not possible, I will reiterate the above, I didn't say that.

 

Yes and I agree no one is talking about the flu which as you stated kills >300k people worldwide every year, suffice to say I got my influenza and pneumonia vaccines yesterday, those now sorted, just have to duck and weave until a vaccine for the Covid-19 is made, if ever. 

[Mama Noodle]

4 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Yes and I agree no one is talking about the flu which as you stated kills >300k people worldwide every year, suffice to say I got my influenza and pneumonia vaccines yesterday, those now sorted, just have to duck and weave until a vaccine for the Covid-19 is made, if ever. 

 

Flu shots only cover some viruses and are only 40-50% effective. Pneumonia vaccines do not exist unless talking about pneumococcal bacteria.

[4MyEgo]

5 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Flu shots only cover some viruses and are only 40-50% effective. Pneumonia vaccines do not exist unless talking about pneumococcal bacteria.

From what the Doctor told me, the influenza vaccine protects you around 40%-60% which is around what you have stated.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

 

However I will disagree with your assumption that Pneumonia vaccines do not exist.

 

There are 2 pneumonia vaccines which are known as Pneumovax 23 and Prevnar 13. Prevnar 13 usually given first, as I received yesterday.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/pneumonia/prevention.html

[Mama Noodle]

4 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

However I will disagree with your assumption that Pneumonia vaccines do not exist.

 

Please read what I post. 

 

20 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

Pneumonia vaccines do not exist unless talking about pneumococcal bacteria.

 

[SMEinBangkok]

On 5/8/2020 at 9:55 PM, yuyiinthesky said:

But you're missing the point. The goal was never to keep people from dying, the goal was to stretch those deaths out over time so that hospitals don't get overwhelmed. That was the goal. The area under the line has the same amount of sickness as the peak above it.

 

This graph, like so many others, should be studied as an example of the lack of basic math and analysis skills in the vast majority of the world's population.  It's essentially nothing more than a cartoon with unlabeled x and y axis, and visually, the same area contained in each 'equation'.

 

Nearly all of the reactions to this virus have been exaggerated by a few well-meaning, but frightened people.  NONE of their predications regarding it have come true, but one from the 'opposition' has.  Global economic disaster with no plan or understanding of how to recover from it.

 

Let's take a quick look down memory lane:

3 to 5% mortality - Now looking at around .5%

Hospitals overwhelmed - Not one listed by name so far

Much more deadly than any other respiratory illness - Not according to US cases and data from the CDC

Social distancing, lock downs, business closures are the only solution - And yet the countries that have fared the worse are the ones who applied this in the most draconian terms and the others that didn't have fared better.  It's counter intuitive and it'll take time to determine what measures worked or didn't, but the results are NOT uniform.

Don't wear a mask because it won't help and you're hurting health care workers.

Wear a mask unless you're a heartless monster.

 

And on and on....the same thing is playing out in comments here and on other forums.  The catastrophe ghouls know everything about the virus because they're listening to all of the experts....of which none exist because this is the first one in modern history.  

 

Here's a 'novel' solution.  If you're old, and especially if you're a man, with underlying health conditions, then YOU shouldn't go to work, YOU should self-isolate, YOU should practice social distancing, YOU should wear a mask.

 

Oops...almost forgot.  Mankind has only eliminated two globally-present, disease-causing viruses in the past.  Smallpox and Rinderpest.  It took effective vaccines and a decades long public health campaign.  So....eliminating the virus isn't a realistic option.

[4MyEgo]

30 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Please read what I post. 

 

 

 

51 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Flu shots only cover some viruses and are only 40-50% effective. Pneumonia vaccines do not exist unless talking about pneumococcal bacteria.

Are not not one of the same ?

https://kidshealth.org/en/parents/pneumococcal-vaccine.html

[Mama Noodle]

1 minute ago, 4MyEgo said:

Are not not one of the same ?

 

If by 'same' you mean completely different, then sure. 

 

One is a bacteria, the other is a virus. 

[4MyEgo]

27 minutes ago, SMEinBangkok said:

Here's a 'novel' solution.  If you're old, and especially if you're a man, with underlying health conditions, then YOU shouldn't go to work, YOU should self-isolate, YOU should practice social distancing, YOU should wear a mask.

Agree, add to that kids under 5 or so whose immune systems are still building and let's get on with it. I am a male, am 60 and have underlying conditions, what will happen will happen, up to me to protect myself best I can, others shouldn't have to suffer because it effect those that you mentioned in your post.

[4MyEgo]

9 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

If by 'same' you mean completely different, then sure. 

 

One is a bacteria, the other is a virus. 

Ok, I am getting it, so I think your saying there are two types, which is news to me.

 

The first is the viral type, the 2nd bacterial type.

 

So I am assuming I got vaccinated for the viral type and antibiotics would be used if I got the bacterial side of it ?

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, RJRS1301 said:

Australia and NZ have NOT enforced nor recommended face masks.

 

Official NZ government policy as announced less that 1 hour ago is that the evidence does not support mandatory mask wearing.