Bars and pubs could open soon

[spidermike007]

10 hours ago, jacko45k said:

And is your perspective that of an expert or that of a layman? Would it not be a chicken and egg situation to say, well no internal infections, quit all the distancing, hand washing and mask wearing etc... in fact let us have a boxing stadium meet where, like some months ago, many hundreds of infections originated. Then we have to start again.....One thing I do fear is that I see Thailand's population likely has very very few people with the Covid antibodies, (unlke the 5% estimated in NYC), and covid, if introduced again, would spread fast, if the population were not taking precautions. Nobody thought it might happen in New Zealand, but the infection 'got out'.....

If anything it is the opposite. Considering that there were well over a million tourists here, each month in Dec, Jan and Feb, some of whom were most certainly infected from China (Wuhan!) and Europe, and Thailand came out of this with only 3100 cases, I would say that the Thais have a very, very strong natural immunity to Covid. The opposite of the Americans and Europeans. My guess is it has something to do with diet, sunshine, etc. But, the strong immunity is highly suggested by the low cases, despite huge exposure. 

Edited June 18, 2020 by spidermike007

[jacko45k]

13 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I would say that the Thais have a very, very strong natural immunity to Covid. The opposite of the Americans and Europeans. My guess is it has something to do with diet, sunshine, etc. But, the strong immunity is highly suggested by the low cases, despite huge exposure. 

There has been no clinical proof of this and people of similar genetic make-up in Malaysia and Indonesia have shown much higher infection numbers. I really don't think the policy of Thailand, which has been extremely successful, should be diverted based on 'your guess'.

[kingdong]

On 6/15/2020 at 6:18 AM, jacko45k said:

That might be true for the old Lengkee place but that isn't the one up for sale?

The lenkee one is long gone,what do,es that tell you?

[Leaver]

On 6/17/2020 at 2:37 PM, rhodie said:

Did you get any takers?

No.  Maybe if I put, "Selling due to ill health" I might get some offers.  ????

[Leaver]

On 6/17/2020 at 3:25 PM, kingofthemountain said:

Yes you are right

this advertisement is the perfect example of how the landlords are

totaly disconnected from the reality on the ground.

 

The conditions for the rent are just crazy, even in a good period

how can someone have a return on investisment on this?

 

3,5 millions bahts for the key money and 100 000 deposit

when the poor japanese guy, who was the previous tenant, has just left

and no return, leaving all this money behind him but in the hands of the landlord

 

Rinse and repeat, the eternal Pattaya mantra

There will be "rinse" but no "repeat" for a long time, especially at those prices. 

[Leaver]

On 6/17/2020 at 3:34 PM, kingofthemountain said:

Yes the famous scissor effect

 

in the last 10 years, most of the prices for the

daily cost of life in Thailand has increased by 50 % and the exchange rate

from most on the western currencies against the baht has been a lost

around 50 others %, so it's a global loss of 100% of their puchasing power 

 

They are broke

At least most of the ones still here, the less wealthy have already 

been gone for a long time

The thing is, as the current generation of expats come to pass, they currently are not / will not be replaced.  

 

Interesting times ahead for hospitality establishments catering for western expats, and the local property market.   

[thainet]

5 minutes ago, Leaver said:

The thing is, as the current generation of expats come to pass, they currently are not / will not be replaced.  

 

Interesting times ahead for hospitality establishments catering for western expats, and the local property market.   

Actually that's a very good analogy.. hadn't thought about that.

[Leaver]

On 6/17/2020 at 5:17 PM, JensenZ said:

I specifically used the words "maybe" and "some" in relation to the possibility of gogo bars opening up in the LK Metro/Soi Buakhao area.

 

What landlords advertise as the rent is irrelevant. That can and will change according to supply and demand.

 

Whatever the rent payments will be in LK Metro are definitely a lot lower than Walking Street rents, in the past and in the future.

 

FYI, 300k is a typical rent payment for small shops in Central Mall. 250K rental is no surprise or shocking.

 

There will be incentive for some bar owners with deep pockets to reopen because the market will be less competitive for any that do manage to stay afloat. 

There's a big difference between opening up, and remaining open. 

 

Even owners with deep pockets, and who are already substantially committed financially, would balk at at high rents and at least 12 months of loses, just to try to see off the competition.  

[Leaver]

On 6/17/2020 at 9:15 PM, hackjam said:

So true.

Something that will no doubt be blamed on the virus, but the decline had already been taking place for the last few seasons. 

 

Edited June 19, 2020 by Leaver

[Leaver]

On 6/17/2020 at 9:56 PM, JensenZ said:

Anyone on a fixed income would be in trouble no matter where they lived because obviously their income will depreciate by the cost of inflation. Did they come to Thailand thinking that the cost of living will remain the same, forever?

No, I am sure they came to Thailand thinking they had enough of a buffer to get see them through to their end, and in the past, it did.

 

Now, the cost of living in Thailand has surpassed the buffer of many retirees, and there's nothing any business here can do about it. 

 

There's no money to be made from the majority of expat retirees anymore. 

[elliss]

 

       Lady bars ,  and bar lady , sexpats..

        History ...

Edited June 19, 2020 by elliss

[Leaver]

16 minutes ago, thainet said:

Actually that's a very good analogy.. hadn't thought about that.

Western tourism here has always been the best advertisement for Pattaya / Thailand as a retirement destination. 

 

With declining western tourists, that will mean a declining rate of western retirees here in the future. 

[Leaver]

15 minutes ago, elliss said:

 

       Lady bars ,  and bar lady , sexpats..

        History ...

No, just lady drinks and bar fines, history. 

[bmanly]

6 hours ago, Leaver said:

Now, the cost of living in Thailand has surpassed the buffer of many retirees, and there's nothing any business here can do about it. 

 

There's no money to be made from the majority of expat retirees anymore. 

I have been going to Thailand for 30 years, the last 18 of those years as a retiree. 6 Months Australia, 6 Months Pattaya, Thailand. I can tell you this without any doubt whatsoever. If you own your own place in AU then it is cheaper to live in AU than what it is in Thailand. My electricity and water is cheaper, my beer I can buy in bulk from the bottleshop for 30 baht a small bottle each drink at home, food at the supermarket in AU is half the price for farang foods like cheese, pizza, bread, butter, spaghetti etc. Top notch red wine I buy online and get delivered to my door for an approximate THB price of 100 baht per 750 ml bottle. I buy clothes from Lowes menswear which is cheaper than Big C. I bought a pair of kito thongs in Big C last year for 350 baht, that is 50% more than I pay in Australia.

 

Thailand only wins on weather and rental accommodation and of course the people and culture. Food and beers in a restaurant or bars always use to be cheaper In years gone by but now it's getting up to Australian prices, this was never the case in the past. You all know it, a decent fish & chips in TH is around 200 to 250 baht, higher price than in AU. And OMG, the bar scene has gone downhill too. 

 

But I am still wanting to go there as Thailand is part of my life and I know I will pay more for the privilege but I am not sure how the landscape will look when I get back. I don't mind spending my money in bars, restaurants and hotels I just hope I get a fair swap for my money for their service, quality and entertainment. I do miss the place when I am not there.

Edited June 19, 2020 by bmanly
spelling

[JensenZ]

12 hours ago, Leaver said:

There's a big difference between opening up, and remaining open. 

 

Even owners with deep pockets, and who are already substantially committed financially, would balk at at high rents and at least 12 months of loses, just to try to see off the competition.  

As I already said, it depends on the deals these bars can make with their landlords. Obviously if rent was/is zero over the close down period, followed by a period of reduced rent, the prospect of re-opening increases. It's in the hands of the landlords. The landlords don't have much to lose by working with these businesses, as without them, their prospect of rental income is zero in the foreseeable future.

[JensenZ]

12 hours ago, Leaver said:

No, I am sure they came to Thailand thinking they had enough of a buffer to get see them through to their end, and in the past, it did.

 

Now, the cost of living in Thailand has surpassed the buffer of many retirees, and there's nothing any business here can do about it. 

 

There's no money to be made from the majority of expat retirees anymore. 

Since when do expats have fixed incomes? Pensions and investment income are not frozen.

 

When the expat arrived in Thailand will heavily influence their current financial position.

 

Before the 1997 Asian financial crisis the exchange rate was lower than it is now. USDTHB was around 25 baht. The GBPUSD has come back down to pre-1997 levels. The EURTHB is still above pre-1997 rates.

 

Most expats arrived when the exchange rates were at historical highs. This is bad planning. A lot of UK expats came here when the rate was double the pre-1997 exchange rate. 

 

You can check the 25 years historical exchange rates against the THB here:

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/audthb:cur

 

 

[Bruntoid]

On 6/5/2020 at 12:30 AM, tribalfusion001 said:

Just look at South Korea and having a cluster at some gay bars, all closed again. The way the killjoys are acting go go bars, karaoke and gentlemans clubs are over for months. More to the point would you want to go to them if you have QR code to get in and out, plus other social distancing measures.

Tell them you don’t have a phone 

[jacko45k]

13 hours ago, Leaver said:

No, I am sure they came to Thailand thinking they had enough of a buffer to get see them through to their end, and in the past, it did.

I came thinking no worries at 75 baht/pound and 5% interest rates easily obtained.

Edited June 20, 2020 by jacko45k

[kingofthemountain]

2 hours ago, JensenZ said:

Most expats arrived when the exchange rates were at historical highs. This is bad planning. A lot of UK expats came here when the rate was double the pre-1997 exchange rate. 

Ok then if you want to retire for example in 2025, and you want to do a ''good planning''

you need to know what will be the exchange rate evolutions from 2025 to 2065

can you please enlighten me and explain me how you can be able to do it?

[Leaver]

15 hours ago, bmanly said:

I have been going to Thailand for 30 years, the last 18 of those years as a retiree. 6 Months Australia, 6 Months Pattaya, Thailand. I can tell you this without any doubt whatsoever. If you own your own place in AU then it is cheaper to live in AU than what it is in Thailand. My electricity and water is cheaper, my beer I can buy in bulk from the bottleshop for 30 baht a small bottle each drink at home, food at the supermarket in AU is half the price for farang foods like cheese, pizza, bread, butter, spaghetti etc. Top notch red wine I buy online and get delivered to my door for an approximate THB price of 100 baht per 750 ml bottle. I buy clothes from Lowes menswear which is cheaper than Big C. I bought a pair of kito thongs in Big C last year for 350 baht, that is 50% more than I pay in Australia.

 

Thailand only wins on weather and rental accommodation and of course the people and culture. Food and beers in a restaurant or bars always use to be cheaper In years gone by but now it's getting up to Australian prices, this was never the case in the past. You all know it, a decent fish & chips in TH is around 200 to 250 baht, higher price than in AU. And OMG, the bar scene has gone downhill too. 

 

But I am still wanting to go there as Thailand is part of my life and I know I will pay more for the privilege but I am not sure how the landscape will look when I get back. I don't mind spending my money in bars, restaurants and hotels I just hope I get a fair swap for my money for their service, quality and entertainment. I do miss the place when I am not there.

You are talking about holidaying here, what of the Australian retiree who have been living here and has seen their purchasing power shrink significantly? 

[Leaver]

10 hours ago, JensenZ said:

As I already said, it depends on the deals these bars can make with their landlords. Obviously if rent was/is zero over the close down period, followed by a period of reduced rent, the prospect of re-opening increases. It's in the hands of the landlords. The landlords don't have much to lose by working with these businesses, as without them, their prospect of rental income is zero in the foreseeable future.

I agree, and I have said the same before.  I posted here I spoke to one bar owner who had a landlord who refused to renegotiate, even temporarily, so he handed the keys back and walked away.

 

I posted the link to an ad where it appears the landlord is still in la la land.  You can have a look on that website for similar commercial premises where the landlord appears to still be asking pre  virus rent.  

 

Maybe some landlords see a reduction in rent as a loss of face.  Whatever it is, if you landlord will not bare some of the virus loss, that business is closing, or moving elsewhere.    

 

 

[n00dle]

On 6/4/2020 at 11:46 PM, kingofthemountain said:

I am more concerned about the QR code

Why? I havent seen anyome use it yet, nor the sign in sheets.

[Leaver]

10 hours ago, JensenZ said:

Since when do expats have fixed incomes? Pensions and investment income are not frozen.

 

When the expat arrived in Thailand will heavily influence their current financial position.

 

Before the 1997 Asian financial crisis the exchange rate was lower than it is now. USDTHB was around 25 baht. The GBPUSD has come back down to pre-1997 levels. The EURTHB is still above pre-1997 rates.

 

Most expats arrived when the exchange rates were at historical highs. This is bad planning. A lot of UK expats came here when the rate was double the pre-1997 exchange rate. 

 

You can check the 25 years historical exchange rates against the THB here:

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/audthb:cur

 

 

Government pensions may increase a little with inflation, and property investments may move, up or down, with the rental market, but in relation to pensions, in general, if they increase by 2%, yet costs in Thailand, or their home country, rise by 5%, 6%, 10% etc, than they are going backwards. 

 

Pensioners in many countries are struggling, and Thailand is no different for a struggling western pensioner.

 

So much for a happy retirement in Thailand.  Many things here are now more expensive than in western countries. 

[Leaver]

9 hours ago, jacko45k said:

I came thinking no worries at 75 baht/pound and 5% interest rates easily obtained.

It will be years, if ever, those days return, so like I have said, the current generation of retired expats here will not be replaced. in the numbers we have seen in the past, by the next generation of retiree coming through. 

 

The majority simply will not have the funds, or be able to generate enough passive income.  

[bmanly]

6 hours ago, Leaver said:

You are talking about holidaying here, what of the Australian retiree who have been living here and has seen their purchasing power shrink significantly? 

Significantly much worse off. Currency down 35% in the last 10 years. Local prices for food, wine and beer up. But at least they still get a twice a year adjustment up of their government pensions. So yes, much worse off but not as bad as some other nationalities who don't get pension adjustments.

[Ron jeremy]

1 hour ago, bmanly said:

Significantly much worse off. Currency down 35% in the last 10 years. Local prices for food, wine and beer up. But at least they still get a twice a year adjustment up of their government pensions. So yes, much worse off but not as bad as some other nationalities who don't get pension adjustments.

My work pension is fixed, no adjustments for me, most can only dream of a government job.

[bmanly]

4 minutes ago, Ron jeremy said:

My work pension is fixed, no adjustments for me, most can only dream of a government job.

Sorry, I wasn't quite clear on that. I should have said the old age government pension, not for ex government workers.

[luckyluke]

Some countries care more about their elderly than others. 

Pensions in some countries are quite "reasonable". 

I am Belgian, with a family pension (married) of 2288 Euro net monthly. 

1000 Euro more in May ( holiday bonus). 

Usually 2% increase yearly, where ever one stay. 

[scubascuba3]

36 minutes ago, Ron jeremy said:

My work pension is fixed, no adjustments for me, most can only dream of a government job.

Government jobs were always avoided in my age group, only those who couldn't get a decent private job went government, just too sleepy and pay doesn't compare. Too many jobworths. Maybe decades of being underpaid your pension may be ok

Edited June 20, 2020 by scubascuba3

[jacko45k]

9 hours ago, Leaver said:

It will be years, if ever, those days return, so like I have said, the current generation of retired expats here will not be replaced. in the numbers we have seen in the past, by the next generation of retiree coming through. 

 

The majority simply will not have the funds, or be able to generate enough passive income.  

I can't be sure about the exchange rate, but the way the UK government is spending money, and the BofE is creating it, to buy government debt, there is no way it will have better value for a decade. As to good interest rates for money on deposit, forget it, too much money swilling around and cheap money will see me to my grave. Mind you, they can offer me 0.1% to let them hold it, but it's 18% to owe it on my CC. Crazy

Still, to be slightly on topic, I really need to cut back on the drinking anyhow!

Edited June 20, 2020 by jacko45k