Unrestricted Travel to Thailand; When?

[chainarong]

On 6/11/2020 at 9:43 AM, BritTim said:

For travel from many countries free of Covid-19, probably around this October. For most nationalities, we will probably need to wait until wide availability of an effective Covid-19 vaccine (whose use will be compulsory before entry will be allowed). Third quarter of next year is my guess, but this may be over optimistic.

Unfortunately they haven't found a vax for the Sars yet and that's a Covid.

 

[bert bloggs]

Thai airlines are accepting bookings for aug from uk to thailand .

[BritTim]

8 minutes ago, chainarong said:

Unfortunately they haven't found a vax for the Sars yet and that's a Covid.

True, and worth mentioning. However, the threat posed by SARS has never been serious enough to prompt the kind of effort now being invested in developing a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

 

When it comes to vaccines, nothing is ever certain. Much effort over decades has failed to result in an effective vaccine for HIV. That said, the chances of a reasonably effective vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 within the next two years is probably over 90%.

[BritTim]

3 minutes ago, bert bloggs said:

Thai airlines are accepting bookings for aug from uk to thailand .

... which may or may not mean they will actually operate those flights. Whether services are provided or not, those booking flights are a big help to their cash flow.

[AgMech Cowboy]

23 hours ago, ubonjoe said:

I could not vote since there was nothing I could vote for. At this time is unknown what it will be next month or after.

Good viewpoint. I voted for a year or more, but like ubonjoe "there was nothing" that fit my <deleted> (er I mean) opinion... My opinion was (two minutes ago) that the Thai government will open in late March of 2021 before the Songkran holidays, but now I'm thinking that by November they will see that too many people are jumping off bridges and the lines are too long at the food pantries, so they'll open up before December.

 

Oh wait, I've got another fart, maybe in a year or more.... 

[soi3eddie]

27th October 2020

[merijn]

On 6/11/2020 at 9:26 AM, Boomer6969 said:

As far as I am concerned they could make it unrestricted for anyone who can show tree items:

a) a health certificate of less that 3 days,

b) a paid booking for 14 days in a quarantine facility,

c) a Health/Covid insurance covering at least 3-4 weeks in ICU.

 

Some months after the onset of vaccinations campaigns a (some?) vaccination certificates may become the sole requirement for entry.

 

There is still a pandemic, at various stages, raging out there. The tighter the borders remain, the more they can relax internal restrictions.

Number A could be a problem for many as a lot of countries only test if you have complaints and not just if you ask for it.

The Netherlands for example don't do testing without reason and they don't provide certificates, instead they just call for the result after about 2 days.

[merijn]

4 hours ago, bert bloggs said:

Thai airlines are accepting bookings for aug from uk to thailand .

Means nothing as flights are cancelled all around us.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

If this was a normal country - by October for sure - Thailand desperately needs the tourists as the many unemployed and underemployed and businesses collapsing will tell you. But this is not another country - this is Thailand and with the current government there is no way anything will get back to normal unless there is a vaccine or very effective treatment. I'd love to travel to Thailand ASAP, but I'm not holding my breath. Sorry for the Thai people that their government is doing this to them.

[BritTim]

3 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

If this was a normal country - by October for sure - Thailand desperately needs the tourists as the many unemployed and underemployed and businesses collapsing will tell you. But this is not another country - this is Thailand and with the current government there is no way anything will get back to normal unless there is a vaccine or very effective treatment. I'd love to travel to Thailand ASAP, but I'm not holding my breath. Sorry for the Thai people that their government is doing this to them.

Thailand, like many countries, is faced with an unenviable choice. Impose restrictions that hurt the economy, or fail to impose restrictions and kill thousands of their citizens. Thailand has opted for Covid-19 elimination, and I personally think that is the moral choice in the long run. That does not mean I do not recognise the immense economic pain this causes in many low income families.

[86Tiger]

On 6/11/2020 at 11:39 AM, drbeach said:

 

 

........Anyway, there are many indications that a covid vaccine may never be developed. Coronaviruses mutate all the time and no successful corona vaccine has ever been manufactured......

There will not be a "successful" vaccine.  There will be many step up with "promising" research but that is because nations around the world are offering billions of dollars for a cure, there are plenty of takers but the elusive prize will always be just few more months and few more billions in the future.  See AIDS.

 

I very well may be wrong, but personally I have more confidence immigration will provide us a 10 year visa based on marriage with no 90 day check in......

[JackThompson]

20 hours ago, BritTim said:

The immunity conferred by a virus infection is highly variable. As an example, people typically suffer from multiple infections of the common cold each year. You develop very little immunity as a result of a rhinovirus infection.

 

It is likely that a decent level of immunity with be conferred by a bout of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, this is not certain, and the duration of such immunity before it degrades is absolutely unknown.

Yes, but "the common cold" is not the same virus each time you catch it.  Catching a "new mutation" of this one could be an issue, of course.  But that possibility means we either accept it will be around forever, and get on with life, or stay paralyized forever. 

 

I really wish we had some data on who has already been exposed in Thailand.  I find it hard to believe the 1st wave in February did not hit many.  Thailand was filled with Wuhan visitors flying in on planes, where one person could infect many.

 

As well, current testing is almost entirely limited to those returning from overseas, so we really don't know if the virus is around, or already died-out from herd-immunity, or what.

[Okis]

The poll say " unrestricted as it was one year ago",  many here seemed to miss that part. 

 

Definently more than 1 year. 

 

If people think they will open up this year for everyone and with zero restriction are either delusional or basing it purely on what they hope will happen. 

Edited June 12, 2020 by Okis

[cubism001]

On 6/11/2020 at 3:06 AM, kingofallasians said:

Lol, let's close all this <deleted> and tank out economies just for the really old people who have lived life already.

Hey man, remember that insult when you're in your 70's, if you make it that long. Maybe what you're doing now isn't  so significant . 

[BritTim]

2 hours ago, JackThompson said:

As well, current testing is almost entirely limited to those returning from overseas, so we really don't know if the virus is around, or already died-out from herd-immunity, or what.

The lack of reliable data is definitely an issue. However, I doubt very much that there has been the kind of outbreak here that was seen in New York City that probably infected a quarter of the population of the city.

 

In the absence of extensive surveillance testing (both diagnostic and antibody) I believe tentative estimates are possible by making some assumptions:

• Approximately a third of those infected are asymptomatic.
• Approximately 10% of those with symptoms require hospitalisation.
• While in the early days of the epidemic testing of those admitted to hospital with Covid-19 symptoms was sporadic, by the time the virus really took hold, testing of those admitted to hospital was routine. (Up country, where hospitals are hard to reach, some will undoubtedly have died at home without ever being tested.)
• About 20% of those who need hospital treatment will die, based on an average level of skill by the medical professionals involved.
• The official death toll of 54 (compared to over 20,000 in New York City) suggests a low level of infections, even if you consider the real figure off by several orders of magnitude. My own belief is that the official figure is probably on the low side, but a figure of 150 is entirely believable.

My back of the envelope calculation is that about 150 (death toll) * 5 (assume 20% of serious hospitalised cases die) * 10 (only 10% of symptomatic cases are hospitalised) * 1.5 (include asymptomatic infections) = 11,250 people infected which suggests minimal herd immunity.

 

You may quibble with my assumptions, and I admit that there is huge uncertainty. However, I believe any hopes that there is wide herd immunity in Thailand are likely to be dashed.

 

Incidentally, on Wuhan. The explosion of cases in the city occurred after the city was quarantined around January 23rd. Yes, Wuhan seeded the outbreak. However, the number of infected individuals who entered Thailand from Wuhan was likely 10 or fewer.

[unheard]

4 hours ago, BritTim said:

• Approximately a third of those infected are asymptomatic.
• The official death toll of 54 (compared to over 20,000 in New York City) suggests a low level of infections

I don't know how you came up with the estimation of only a third of infected being asymptomatic.

It could be as high as 90% - there's no way to know until they run antibodies testing on a really huge scale - might never happen due to the cost/benefit ratio.

 

New York City is a unique case not applicable on a whole to Thailand on many levels.

 

1. New York's elderly population per capita hugely outnumbers of that in Thailand.

 

2. New York's nursing homes have been criminally mishandled when the virus was allowed to spread through the within.

 

3. New York has on average 18,352 flu-related hospitalizations each flu season and almost nearly 5,000 deaths in spite of the available vaccine.

 

4.The American hospitals have a huge incentive to over-report the deaths as exclusively related to Covid-19 due to the mismatch in compensation (they get much more money for reporting a case of a Covid-19 instead of flu)

 

Covid-19 will more likely than not to mutate, if not already has done so, into a milder form and become another much less harmful cold virus.

[Martyp]

49 minutes ago, unheard said:

I don't know how you came up with the estimation of only a third of infected being asymptomatic.

It could be as high as 90% - there's no way to know until they run antibodies testing on a really huge scale - might never happen due to the cost/benefit ratio.

 

 Actually, there have been several studies in the past few weeks that have shown about 15-40% of those testing positive are asymptomatic. One example is the sailors on the USS Roosevelt. They found 18% of 382 sailors were both positive and asymptomatic. There have been several similar examinations of past cluster infections. These numbers can be confusing because sometimes mild and asymptomatic get bunched together giving very high percentages. There is also the problem of distinguishing pre-symptomatic from totally asymptomatic throughout the infection cycle.

 

From a recent issue of Time magazine

 

"In a study published June 3 in the Annals of Internal Medicine, researchers at the Scripps Research Translational Institute reviewed data from 16 different groups of COVID-19 patients from around the world to get a better idea of how many cases of coronavirus can likely be traced to people who spread the virus without ever knowing they were infected. Their conclusion: at minimum, 30%, and more likely 40% to 45%."

 

"Five of these studies included follow up testing of the participants; they showed that only a small fraction of people who were asymptomatic when they tested positive the first time then went on to develop symptoms. That allowed the researchers to distinguish between people who are pre-symptomatic—those who test positive but eventually go on to develop symptoms—and those who are truly asymptomatic, and test positive for COVID-19 but never develop obvious symptoms. Among the more than 2300 people sampled in the Vo population, none of the 41% who had no symptoms when they tested positive ever developed symptoms over a 14 day period."

Edited June 13, 2020 by Martyp

[unheard]

24 minutes ago, Martyp said:

 Actually, there have been several studies in the past few weeks that have shown about 15-40% of those testing positive are asymptomatic.

And I can link to several studies that report about 90% being asymptomatic.

 

"Our New York City labor and delivery unit found 88 percent of infected patients had no symptoms."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/20/we-tested-all-our-patients-covid-19-found-lots-asymptomatic-cases/

 

"As Many as 80 Percent of People with COVID-19 Aren’t Aware They Have the Virus"

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/50-percent-of-people-with-covid19-not-aware-have-virus

 

“Among more than 3,000 prison inmates in four states who tested positive for the coronavirus, the figure was astronomical: 96 percent asymptomatic.”

https://neurosciencenews.com/asymptomatic-coronavirus-16534/

 

 

 

[BritTim]

5 minutes ago, unheard said:

And I can link to several studies that report about 90% being asymptomatic.

 

"Our New York City labor and delivery unit found 88 percent of infected patients had no symptoms."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/20/we-tested-all-our-patients-covid-19-found-lots-asymptomatic-cases/

 

"As Many as 80 Percent of People with COVID-19 Aren’t Aware They Have the Virus"

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/50-percent-of-people-with-covid19-not-aware-have-virus

 

“Among more than 3,000 prison inmates in four states who tested positive for the coronavirus, the figure was astronomical: 96 percent asymptomatic.”

https://neurosciencenews.com/asymptomatic-coronavirus-16534/

A very important caveat:

Quote

The authors also acknowledge that the lack of longitudinal data makes distinguishing between asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals difficult. An asymptomatic individual is someone who is infected with SARS-CoV-2, but never develops symptoms of COVID-19, while a presymptomatic person is similarly infected, but will eventually develop symptoms. Longitudinal testing, which refers to repeated testing of individuals over time, would help differentiate between the two.

To take the prison figures as a classic example: these tests were mostly a result of rapid contact tracing of known cases, and likely occurred within a few days of exposure to the virus. The average incubation period is thought to be 5-6 days. That is why longitudinal studies (such as those on imported cases done in China) is important to get an accurate picture. 

[unheard]

7 minutes ago, BritTim said:

A very important caveat:

To take the prison figures as a classic example: these tests were mostly a result of rapid contact tracing of known cases, and likely occurred within a few days of exposure to the virus.

they've likely tested the whole populations of affected prisons.

Contact tracing in a prison? ????

Edited June 13, 2020 by unheard

[BritTim]

1 hour ago, unheard said:

Contact tracing in a prison? ????

Although you may doubt this, prisons attempting social distancing do have a pretty good idea of who is in each prison wing, and the staff who have had contact with prisoners. Contact tracing in prisons is more likely to be successful than figuring out who used the same supermarket and gas station as someone else in the general population.

[JackThompson]

11 hours ago, BritTim said:

The lack of reliable data is definitely an issue. However, I doubt very much that there has been the kind of outbreak here that was seen in New York City that probably infected a quarter of the population of the city.

 

...
with my assumptions, and I admit that there is huge uncertainty. However, I believe any hopes that there is wide herd immunity in Thailand are likely to be dashed.

The problem in the USA - in NYC specifically, was that covid-positives were put into facilities for the elderly and even hospices.  This happened in other states also - the facilities were Ordered to take them.

 

As well, more is coming out now from "whistleblower" nurses in NYC, who said people like stroke-victims, who were covid-free when admitted, were put in the same rooms and floors with known covid-positive patients.  One nurse took films on her cell-phone to document this, before eventually being fired for speaking about these policies, saying "no one would believe it" if she did not do so (would call her a "conspiracy theorist"). 

 

The large earlier outbreak in Washington-State was similar - spread within a facility for the elderly, which included a hospice. 

 

Thailand's older-population is generally not locked-up in "old folks home" facilities, so the spread-pattern among those most vulnerable would not be comparable.  Then factor in rates of covid co-morbidities per population, and percentage of these populations in the most-affected age-range. 

 

Quote

Incidentally, on Wuhan. The explosion of cases in the city occurred after the city was quarantined around January 23rd. Yes, Wuhan seeded the outbreak. However, the number of infected individuals who entered Thailand from Wuhan was likely 10 or fewer.

You are correct, I should have said Hubei Province, in which Wuhan is located, which continued flights to Thailand (and elsewhere), while simultaneously cut-off from the rest of China from January 23rd.   As to how many left Wuhan, specifically, to Thailand between December and January 23, I'd like to see official figures on that - but doubt Chinese or Thai officials will be oblige.

 

All that considered, studies completed to-date have shown the covid death-rate is about the same as a normal year, per age-group (slightly higher for elderly, and slightly less for younger) - added to the normal annual rate, but with overlap between causes of death (some who died of covid would have died from something else in a "normal" year), so it is a higher, but not a doubling, of that rate (Lancet study, if I recall). 

 

Therefore, in my view, there was no justification to shut everything down for this virus - except during the period before we understood it was only a significant risk to a specific portion of the population.  I hope good testing-systems are developed around transport-systems and borders - but not for this virus - for the next one, which might be far more deadly.

Edited June 13, 2020 by JackThompson

[JackThompson]

4 hours ago, unheard said:

they've likely tested the whole populations of affected prisons.

Contact tracing in a prison? ????

We need the follow-ups 2 weeks later - how many were asymptomatic, mild symptoms, severe symptoms, and deaths.  But, based on what I've seen so far, I would guess 50%+ completely asymptomatic - possibly far higher.  This is why I say it is possible that Thailand reached herd-immunity long-ago, when covid-like cases were being called pneumonia. 

[at15]

origin from Asia, opening up progressively in July, August, September. 

origin from Europe & Americas, opening up progressively in October, November, December. 

this seems to be the plan from the authorities. 

for those that are living in reality and not fear mongering. 

[BritTim]

15 hours ago, JackThompson said:

The problem in the USA - in NYC specifically, was that covid-positives were put into facilities for the elderly and even hospices.  This happened in other states also - the facilities were Ordered to take them.

 

As well, more is coming out now from "whistleblower" nurses in NYC, who said people like stroke-victims, who were covid-free when admitted, were put in the same rooms and floors with known covid-positive patients.  One nurse took films on her cell-phone to document this, before eventually being fired for speaking about these policies, saying "no one would believe it" if she did not do so (would call her a "conspiracy theorist"). 

 

The large earlier outbreak in Washington-State was similar - spread within a facility for the elderly, which included a hospice. 

 

Thailand's older-population is generally not locked-up in "old folks home" facilities, so the spread-pattern among those most vulnerable would not be comparable.  Then factor in rates of covid co-morbidities per population, and percentage of these populations in the most-affected age-range. .

 

There was certainly an issue with protecting those in care homes. This was probably a leading cause of deaths among wealthy Americans in NYC. However, there are two points I would like to make about this:

• When the health system is under severe stress, and a number of care home staff are infected, it is unrealistic to expect perfect decision making.
• A bigger overall contribution to death among the elderly was those infected at home. Statistics show that the biggest risk factor for Covid-19 is having someone in the same household infected. This is the reason why poor families are disproportionately affected by the virus. They live in larger households, and economic factors mean older members of the family are less likely to be in care homes.

Unlike in the US, some countries (such as the UK) have made shielding and protecting vulnerable populations (the elderly and those with preexisting health conditions) a priority. The concept was that you allow controlled spread through the general population (with little attempt at contact tracing and isolation) to develop herd immunity while preventing vulnerable members of the population from becoming infected. The erroneous belief was that virus elimination was not possible. Allied to this was a decision, initially, to avoid strict lockdowns. Over 40,000 deaths later, there is a general consensus that the UK's strategy was misguided.

 

An elimination strategy that includes rapid testing and contract tracing allied to early implementation of a strict lockdown has proven in country after country the key to infection control. The UK has belatedly opted to try for virus elimination, but they are starting from a situation where this will be extremely difficult, not least because they still appear to lack the political will to implement the strategy seriously.

 

Countries like New Zealand, Taiwan and Hong Kong (even China) have had the right idea. In the long run, virus elimination not only saves many thousands of lives, but also allows faster recovery from the inevitable economic damage wrought by the pandemic. 

[bodga]

On 6/11/2020 at 9:27 AM, otherstuff1957 said:

I think that they will start with 'travel bubbles' allowing people from low case count countries in first.  They may require a recent C19 test and some kind of insurance, but the tourist businesses will strongly oppose that.  I suspect that travel from US/UK/Italy/Spain/France/Brazil will not happen for at least a year.

 

If a vaccine is developed, a vaccine certificate may very well be needed in order to fly anywhere (not just Thailand).  Sorry to go off topic here, but antivaxers may find themselves having to choose between their principles and being able to fly.

Being as  flu vaccines arent that  good it  makes  no sense  at  all.

[bodga]

49 minutes ago, BritTim said:

Over 40,000 deaths later, there is a general consensus that the UK's strategy was misguided.

Way  to early  to make any judgments on success yet, it needs  thorough investigation and then we have 2nd  waves which can be way worse than the first and what if that second wave has  little effect on the Uk but then decimates those countries who fared  better earlier.

[BritTim]

8 minutes ago, bodga said:

Way  to early  to make any judgments on success yet, it needs  thorough investigation and then we have 2nd  waves which can be way worse than the first and what if that second wave has  little effect on the Uk but then decimates those countries who fared  better earlier.

If a second wave increases the death toll in Vietnam from 0 to 40,000 I will reevaluate my opinion.