UK trade deal unlikely for now: Britain, EU clash over post-Brexit ties

[vogie]

47 minutes ago, Proboscis said:

Not having a dog in this fight, I would very much warn against the idea of withholding money that has already been agreed upon. The level of retaliation that the EU could visit on the UK would be huge. Probably the only country that would come to the UK's aid would be Ireland, given its geographic location and the fear that the huge unemployment in the UK would lead to migration that would swamp the island of Ireland (there is a special international agreement on freedom of movement between UK and Ireland that predates the EU and it would not take more than a few hundred thousand to swamp Ireland with a population of 4.3 million). Not just Scotland but every other part of the UK would be looking for ways of getting out of the hardest of Brexits that would involve - the unemployment would be huge and made even worse by Covid-19 and its aftermath. If you ever wanted to unravel Brexit, that would be the way to go - the economic devastation would create a movement to scrap the hard Brexit and either rejoin or go the way of Norway.

 

The best bet to keep the UK running under an agreed Brexit agreement, not necessarily at the level it could have if it had not left but at a decent level, would be to agree a system of policing the free trade agreement and come to a compromise on fishing. Most of the fish caught in British waters the British don't eat by choice!

 

It is sad to see a once proud country running itself into the ground like this. Churchill must be turning in his grave.

 

I think Churchill would be doing cartwheels if he could.

[nauseus]

16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

It could be that Johnsons very strong nationalism gets the better of him and his immediate circle.

 

It will be interesting to see. However if Johnson values the economy of the UK he may well cave in at the end. It's not like Brexit would not happen, he'd just have a deal that would benefit the ailing UK economy.

 

But yes, you're right, we'll have to see if Johnson can overcome his nationalism and ideological preferences in favour of doing his job.

You always make out like it is only the UK economy that is 'ailing' but never mention that the majority of the EU countries are doing much worse. 

[Surelynot]

3 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

‘The easiest deal in history’.

 

 

And OVEN READY don't forget!

[Nigel Garvie]

1 hour ago, Surelynot said:

And OVEN READY don't forget!

Maybe they are holding off till the last minute to put it in the microwave!

[Surelynot]

8 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Maybe they are holding off till the last minute to put it in the microwave!

Full power, with grill+combo......and it will still come out like a pile of steaming s**t.

[puipuitom]

11 hours ago, Loiner said:

Barnier's "open and fair competition" or equally deceitful "level playing field" are both EU doublespeak for tying the UK back to the very rules that contributed to our Brexit.

As if we didn't know, why does Barnier think the little old UK fishing grounds are so important, compared to those massive 27 other nations fish stocks?

 

Well if that's all there is, it's more than just unlikely, so roll on No Deal. Not long to go now.

Sorry, but.. why you British always talk about a close-to-nothing part of the British economy called: Fishing grounds ? Nobody here in the EU gives even the beginning of a damn for. The financial City, the car industry and other "make" industries, those are the important factors 

[Surelynot]

3 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Sorry, but.. why you British always talk about a close-to-nothing part of the British economy called: Fishing grounds ? Nobody here in the EU gives even the beginning of a damn for. The financial City, the car industry and other "make" industries, those are the important factors 

Agreed....it is purely political, very little to do with the economics.....you do know we rule the waves don't you? Most of the catch in UK waters would remain unsold if it were not for the EU market......Brits only eat cod and the occasional haddock........it is all a matter of planting your flag......if you get the chance to listen Eddie Izzard he will explain it all to you.

[puipuitom]

15 hours ago, RayC said:

Six months to go until the UK severs links with its biggest trading partner, and the only trade deal of any importance that is likely to be in place post-transition is with Switzerland (and with all due respect to our Swiss friends, it's not that big a deal). Still, nothing to worry, eh? And to think that a Canada-style deal was there for the taking a few years back, but May couldn't get her own party to support it. Never mind, let's blame the EU anyway.

5 months and 6 days to go. 

The Canada-EU deal ( CEPA) is still cont completely in force as 13 out of the 27 member states did not ratify yet.

[Surelynot]

3 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Six months to go until the UK severs links with its biggest trading partner, and the only trade deal of any importance that is likely to be in place post-transition is with Switzerland

Errr.....hello!...The Faroe Islands ......don't forget...that's in the bag.

[Srikcir]

Unfortunately, left as a victim of UK's bungling of trade agreements with the EU is Northern Ireland that will be considered part of the EU so far as Trade Customs Is concerned.

Maybe in the long run that is for the better for Ireland.

[puipuitom]

5 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Personally I would withhold the 39 Billion divorce payment as well, since the EU has clearly failed to negotiate in good faith as set out in the political declaration. 

Negociations British style : Here are our terms, accept them humbly and maybe we are in for a few lousy compromises. You were NOT negociation with the Irish Republic as signed 6th of Dec 1921.

[puipuitom]

5 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Will Boris Johnson fold before 31st Dec and ask for an extension so he can continue to negotiate for a soft exit? Will wager that he will swallow his pride and relent. For now it seem quite worrisome for UK economy with no concluded trade deals with US, fall-out with China and not much to show on bilateral trade agreements. 

Why the EU would AGAIN grant an extention to the UK ? 

[Surelynot]

Just now, puipuitom said:

Why the EU would AGAIN grant an extention to the UK ? 

I think they do want a deal and would always prefer it to no deal......Johnson has painted himself into corner though.....he can't even suggest there might be an extension ......if he does he is gone, toast.

[puipuitom]

16 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Unfortunately, left as a victim of UK's bungling of trade agreements with the EU is Northern Ireland that will be considered part of the EU so far as Trade Customs Is concerned.

Maybe in the long run that is for the better for Ireland.

Northern Ireland will form together with Scotland, Wales and Eire the Gaelic Confederation ( same as Belgium, also 4 "states" together) and continue to be EU member. A daily ferry from Dublin to France and Aberdeen to Netherlands and the trade problems are solved.

[Loiner]

36 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Sorry, but.. why you British always talk about a close-to-nothing part of the British economy called: Fishing grounds ? Nobody here in the EU gives even the beginning of a damn for. The financial City, the car industry and other "make" industries, those are the important factors 

Because they're our fishing grounds - not yours.
Now, why does Mr Barnier always talk about the same grounds? Why is it the second most important issue to him and Macron if they don't give a damn for it? 

[puipuitom]

23 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Errr.....hello!...The Faroe Islands ......don't forget...that's in the bag.

Sorry, an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark and by that member of the EU.

Maybe time to learn the present map of Europe ? ???? Or the likely one of 2022 ? 

[Surelynot]

2 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Because they're our fishing grounds - not yours.
Now, why does Mr Barnier always talk about the same grounds? Why is it the second most important issue to him and Macron if they don't give a damn for it? 

I guess because they know it is such an important totem for the Brits.

[RayC]

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

The obsession with trade deals is very misplaced anyway.

Can you elaborate please. Why?

 

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

The UK can have all the trade agreements in place that it wants, if it has no deal with the EU countries will do less business with the UK. 

True. So presumably - other things being equal - the individual EU countries will either (a) produce the goods themselves; (b) look elsewhere in the bloc or (c) look to 3rd countries. Probably, there will be cost/ logistical disadvantages for the EU country(ies), but the biggest loser appears to be the UK in each case, unless domestic demand replaces EU demand (very unlikely).

 

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

South Korea who already has something approaching a trade deal with the UK did make this clear.

True but it's value is less than 2% of the value of the UK's trade with the EU bloc.

 

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

So having trade deals or not is not the key, having the agreement with the EU is the key for the UK.

You've lost me here. I'm clearly misunderstanding your meaning. You say that trade deals are not the key but that an agreement with the EU - in the context of trade, surely just another word for deal - is?

 

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

Economically speaking. As we saw with Boris and Rishi they don't really care that much about the economy.

Certainly appears to be true of Johnson.

[puipuitom]

37 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Because they're our fishing grounds - not yours.
Now, why does Mr Barnier always talk about the same grounds? Why is it the second most important issue to him and Macron if they don't give a damn for it? 

FISH ? ?  Maybe in the British press, but for sure, NOT in the Dutch, Belgium, German and French ( except maybe locally like in Pas de Calais, Normandy and Bretagne...). Fishing for the EU is as important as cherries from Kent... ( do they grow cherries there ?) 

10% WTO import duty on British made cars or components... THAT's an issue. And the entire meat industry ( agricultural levies, not in the attached list).  Enjoy also the rest.... Means with these WTO-duties, many EU produced products might then be in advantage, of even purchased from elsewhere in the world.  Bye-bye "Made in Britain" ( England) 

 

But. when you bring the GBP down from now 1,0959 to € 0,90 ( not the first time the British currency made such a dive) also these problems are solved. Except of course the British international purchasing power, but.. THAT's where the British overwhelmingly ( 51,2%) and repeatingly voted for...

 

And for those in Thailand, who by big extend voted for Brexit: remind your THB 65K/month...

 

Edited July 24, 2020 by puipuitom

[RayC]

3 hours ago, vogie said:

I think Churchill would be doing cartwheels if he could.

It's incredible that Brexit supporters still have the gall to continually claim Churchill as 'one of their own'. Churchill was in favour of the UK joining the forerunner of the EU in 1956. He foresaw a 'United States of Europe'. He was very much a European. Perhaps, he may have been against a politically integrated Europe (who knows), but history shows that he almost certainly wouldn't have supported the stance of the current UK government.

[nauseus]

35 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Sorry, an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark and by that member of the EU.

Maybe time to learn the present map of Europe ? ???? Or the likely one of 2022 ? 

boring

[nauseus]

Just now, RayC said:

It's incredible that Brexit supporters still have the gall to continually claim Churchill as 'one of their own'. Churchill was in favour of the UK joining the forerunner of the EU in 1956. He foresaw a 'United States of Europe'. He was very much a European. Perhaps, he may have been against a politically integrated Europe (who knows), but history shows that he almost certainly wouldn't have supported the stance of the current UK government.

no he wasn't.

[Loiner]

12 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Maybe in the British press, but for sure, NOT in the Dutch, Belgium, German and French ( except maybe locally like in Pas de Calais, Normandy and Bretagne...). Fishing for the EU is as important as cherries from Kent... ( do they grow cherries there ?) 

10% WTO import duty on British made cars... THAT's an issue. And the entire meat industry.  Enjoy also the rest.... 

 

 

Your not telling us why? No good telling us about various other issues when Barnier and Macron are making UK's fish a major sticking point for negotiations. Aren't you a prime example of the dissent in the EU camp and the reason why German industrialists will eventually force him to fold and agree to a trade deal. 

[puipuitom]

2 minutes ago, nauseus said:

boring

Yes, hardly any intersting country NOT associated of in a trade agreement with the EU, the UK has left already.

[nauseus]

16 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

FISH ? ?  Maybe in the British press, but for sure, NOT in the Dutch, Belgium, German and French ( except maybe locally like in Pas de Calais, Normandy and Bretagne...). Fishing for the EU is as important as cherries from Kent... ( do they grow cherries there ?) 

10% WTO import duty on British made cars or components... THAT's an issue. And the entire meat industry ( agricultural levies, not in the attached list).  Enjoy also the rest.... Means with these WTO-duties, many EU produced products might then be in advantage, of even purchased from elsewhere in the world.  Bye-bye "Made in Britain" ( England) 

 

But. when you bring the GBP down from now 1,0959 to € 0,90 ( not the first time the British currency made such a dive) also these problems are solved. Except of course the British international purchasing power, but.. THAT's where the British overwhelmingly ( 51,2%) and repeatingly voted for...

 

What are you trying to say this time? Do you you know?

[puipuitom]

1 minute ago, Loiner said:

Your not telling us why? No good telling us about various other issues when Barnier and Macron are making UK's fish a major sticking point for negotiations. Aren't you a prime example of the dissent in the EU camp and the reason why German industrialists will eventually force him to fold and agree to a trade deal. 

Why the EU would be so fixed for ... F I S H ? ? As I wrote: not an issue over here, but only and only by the British.

And the Germans... sell their products all over the world.  A few years ago, 1 GBP was € 1,35, now € 1,10. British cannot afford a decent German car anymore.

And when the City is out for financial transactions in Europe, the "light will go out" in London, and with that in England.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Surelynot said:

Agreed....it is purely political, very little to do with the economics.....you do know we rule the waves don't you? Most of the catch in UK waters would remain unsold if it were not for the EU market......Brits only eat cod and the occasional haddock........it is all a matter of planting your flag......if you get the chance to listen Eddie Izzard he will explain it all to you.

 

Eddie Izzard - the remainers dreamboat!

 

[RayC]

9 minutes ago, nauseus said:

no he wasn't.

No he (Churchill) wasn't what? Likely wouldn't have been a Brexit supporter: Agreed. 

 

Wasn't pro-European? Incorrect.

 

What part of my original post was factually incorrect? Churchill spoke in parliament in favour of joining the 'Iron and Steel Federation' (forerunner of EEC/EC/EU). He spoke in Zurich in 1949 of a 'United States of Europe', having previously written about it in the early '30s. All of which suggests that he would been pro-EU.

 

If you have any evidence suggesting Churchill was anti-European or might have been pro-Brexit then please present it.

[puipuitom]

6 minutes ago, nauseus said:

What are you trying to say this time? Do you you know?

Is it so difficult ? A LOT of "made in Britain" products will face EU import tariffs seen WTO regulations, making "made in Britain" product a lot more expensive. see https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/taric_consultation.jsp?Lang=en

 

Bye-the-way: do you British already get enough insect etc free certified pallets to load and transport your goods on into the EU ? From 1 Jan 2021 you are a "third nation". 

[Logosone]

49 minutes ago, RayC said:

Can you elaborate please. Why?

 

True. So presumably - other things being equal - the individual EU countries will either (a) produce the goods themselves; (b) look elsewhere in the bloc or (c) look to 3rd countries. Probably, there will be cost/ logistical disadvantages for the EU country(ies), but the biggest loser appears to be the UK in each case, unless domestic demand replaces EU demand (very unlikely).

 

True but it's value is less than 2% of the value of the UK's trade with the EU bloc.

 

You've lost me here. I'm clearly misunderstanding your meaning. You say that trade deals are not the key but that an agreement with the EU - in the context of trade, surely just another word for deal - is?

 

Certainly appears to be true of Johnson.

Well, you quoted the reason, because even if the UK has trade deals with other countries in place (I mean the non-EU trade deals) that in itself will not decrease or increase business. However whether the UK has a deal or no deal with the EU will be a major factor on how much business outside EU countries will do with the UK. 

 

South Korea already made clear if there is a no deal Brexit that will reduce the business with the UK, simply because many Korean companies manufacture in Europe. The same applies to other countries.

 

So for the UK, economically speaking, by far the largest issue is if it can get a deal with the EU or not. Not third country trade agreements, which by themselves will not increase business for UK companies.

 

You're right of course that everyone loses because of Brexit. The UK of course will lose the most.