Gulf Of Thailand Won't Rise With Global Warming, Expert Claims

[Khun Jean]

Bangkok is sinking. Has nothing to do with global warming, eh pardon me, climate change.

It has everything to do with groundwater levels and building in a swamp.

[plachon]

Bangkok is sinking. Has nothing to do with global warming, eh pardon me, climate change.

It has everything to do with groundwater levels and building in a swamp.

Well done - Bangkok is sinking because of groundwater withdrawals and the weight of building pressing down into a drying clay base. In short, the wetland has been destroyed. With it goes multiple functions and services, it once provided to the environment and critters dependent on its health, including humans. It will also lead to the release into the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and methane, previously locked in the bog under Bangkok.

Ah, those two gases sound familiar, eh? Hmmmm, greenhouse gases that will add to the others already filling up our fragile atmosphere from human-linked causes and contribute to the discernible trend of global climate change, incl. global warming. The polar ice caps melt, the sea level rises (even in distant tropical shores, despite what some Thai hydrologist may think), and cities like Bangkok go under. Or they pay more and more of their GDP's to protect them from going under. Simple, eh?

Well, not really, nothing ever is. But remember that old one about a butterfly's wingbeat in the Amazon causing a hurricane in the North Atlantic? That was simplistic, but it made lots of people think about the inter-connectedness of events on this little planet of ours. Actions and reactions. Positive and negative feedback loops. Some of the folk back in the 60's and 70's started to join the dots and started to see a bigger picture of inter-dependence. Apparently, you weren't one of them.

[Canadianvisitor]

Just for your information:

If you really are thinking that global warming is still up to debate you are horribly misinformed.

You mean they are not? What will happen then?

There are millions and millions of tons of methane gas trapped in the peat of the permafrost of the arctic that are NOT figured into any of the global warming models, this will have a tremendous effect on the reactions that contribute to the catastrophic changes that await our fine little planet.

Incorrect - the potential impacts of +ve feedback loops including permafrost melt and albedo affect have been considered by climate scientists stretching back 30 years or more and are in models. Just read some stuff by James Lovelock about what was understood back in the 70's and 80's.

Scientists See New Global Warming Threat

By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer

Wednesday, September 6, 2006

New research is raising concerns that global warming may be triggering a self-perpetuating climate time bomb trapped in once-frozen permafrost.

As the Earth warms, greenhouse gases once stuck in the long-frozen soil are bubbling into the atmosphere in much larger amounts than previously anticipated, according to a study in Thursday's journal Nature.

Methane trapped in a special type of permafrost is bubbling up at a rate five times faster than originally measured, the journal said.

Scientists are fretting about a global warming vicious cycle that had not been part of their already gloomy climate forecasts: Warming already under way thaws permafrost, soil that had been continuously frozen for thousands of years.

Thawed permafrost releases methane and carbon dioxide. Those gases reach the atmosphere and help trap heat on Earth in the greenhouse effect. The trapped heat thaws more permafrost, and so on.

"The higher the temperature gets, the more permafrost we melt, the more tendency it is to become a more vicious cycle," said Chris Field, director of global ecology at the Carnegie Institution of Washington. "That's the thing that is scary about this whole thing. There are lots of mechanisms that tend to be self-perpetuating and relatively few that tends to shut it off."

The effect reported in Nature is seen mostly in Siberia, but also elsewhere, in a type of carbon-rich permafrost, flash frozen about 40,000 years ago. A new more accurate measuring technique was used on the bubbling methane, which is 23 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than the more prevalent carbon dioxide.

"The effects can be huge," said lead author Katey Walter of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks. "It's coming out a lot and there's a lot more to come out."

Another study earlier this summer in the journal Science found that the amount of carbon trapped in this type of permafrost - called yedoma - is much more prevalent than originally thought and may be 100 times the amount of carbon released into the air each year by the burning of fossil fuels.

It won't all come out at once or even over several decades, but the methane and carbon dioxide will escape the soil if temperatures increase, scientists say.

The issue of methane and carbon dioxide released from permafrost has caused concern this summer among climate scientists and geologists. Specialists in Arctic climate are coming up with research plans to study the effect, which is not well understood or observed, said Robert Corell, chairman of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, a group of 300 scientists.

"It's kind of like a slow-motion time bomb," said Ted Schuur, a professor of ecosystem ecology at the University of Florida and co-author of the Science study. "There's these big surprises out there that we don't even know about."

Most of this yedoma is in north and eastern Siberia, areas that until recently had not been studied at length by scientists.

What makes this permafrost special is that during a rapid onset ice age, carbon-rich plants were trapped in the permafrost. As the permafrost thaws, the carbon is released as methane if it's underwater in lakes, like much of the parts of Siberia that Walter studied. If it's dry, it's released into the air as carbon dioxide.

Scientists aren't quite sure which is worse. Methane is far more powerful in trapping heat, but only lasts about a decade before it dissipates into carbon dioxide and other chemicals. Carbon dioxide traps heat for about a century.

"The bottom line is it's better if it stays frozen in the ground," Schuur said. "But we're getting to the point where it's going more and more into the atmosphere."

Vladimir Romanovsky, geophysics professor at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, said he thinks the big methane or carbon dioxide release hasn't started yet, but it's coming. It's closer in Alaska and Canada, which only has a few hundred square miles of yedoma, he said.

In Siberia, the many lakes of melted water make matters worse because the water, although cold, helps warm and thaw the permafrost, Walter said."

Your turn.

Edited May 27, 2008 by Canadianvisitor

[nomoretalksin]

Bangkok is sinking. Has nothing to do with global warming, eh pardon me, climate change.

It has everything to do with groundwater levels and building in a swamp.

Well done - Bangkok is sinking because of groundwater withdrawals and the weight of building pressing down into a drying clay base. In short, the wetland has been destroyed. With it goes multiple functions and services, it once provided to the environment and critters dependent on its health, including humans. It will also lead to the release into the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and methane, previously locked in the bog under Bangkok.

Ah, those two gases sound familiar, eh? Hmmmm, greenhouse gases that will add to the others already filling up our fragile atmosphere from human-linked causes and contribute to the discernible trend of global climate change, incl. global warming. The polar ice caps melt, the sea level rises (even in distant tropical shores, despite what some Thai hydrologist may think), and cities like Bangkok go under. Or they pay more and more of their GDP's to protect them from going under. Simple, eh?

Well, not really, nothing ever is. But remember that old one about a butterfly's wingbeat in the Amazon causing a hurricane in the North Atlantic? That was simplistic, but it made lots of people think about the inter-connectedness of events on this little planet of ours. Actions and reactions. Positive and negative feedback loops. Some of the folk back in the 60's and 70's started to join the dots and started to see a bigger picture of inter-dependence. Apparently, you weren't one of them.

thanks for this interesting Bangkok/Thailand related post. Nice read

[astral]

The sea is subject to varying gravitational pulls around the planet as well as other factors such as weather and currents. These all effect the level of the sea, some temporarily others permanently or long term. In the short term surges such as the one that swamped Louisiana are caused by weather but the effects are amplified if accompanied by a long-term rise in sea level. The Gulf of Siam is quite sheltered and as such may well be less likely to suffer from these sort of surges.

The Gulf of Thailand is not immune to these effects.

Just sit on the beach at Pattaya for a few hours and watch the tide going in and out,

the same as it does around the world.

[nomoretalksin]

Regarding: "Rising Sea Levels and/or global disturbing climate changes"

Here I found some cool links, I think we can read, if we are intersted in this topic:

1. http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/

2. http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/impact/sea_level.shtml

Quote

Sea Level Rises

As temperatures rise, the sea will absorb heat from the atmosphere, causing it to expand and therefore creating sea level rises.

Although ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica could be affected by warming temperatures, it isn't thought that they will melt significantly enough to contribute to sea level rises. If they melt over the coming one thousand years, though, due to increased temperatures, oceans could increase in depth by a number of metres. Land glaciers will continue to melt over the coming century which will increase the level of the seas.

The IPCC have stated increases for the 2080's of from 9cm to 48cm in the 'Low Emissions Scenarios'. This rises to 16cm to 69cm in the 'High Emissions Scenarios'.

read on here: 2. http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/impact/sea_level.shtml

Unquote

or

Quote

3. http://www.ipcc.ch/ :

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Mandate:

The IPCC was established to provide the decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information about climate change. The IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy, although they need to deal objectively with policy relevant scientific, technical and socio economic factors. They should be of high scientific and technical standards, and aim to reflect a range of views, expertise and wide geographical coverage.

Unquote

I will try to find more details, quotes predictions about Thailand.

Keep cool in sticky Thailand

Edited June 2, 2008 by nomoretalksin

[ThaiAdventure]

Seems someone hasn't been making enough Merit recently

Thai temple fights off encroaching tide as world sea levels rise

[nomoretalksin]

Seems someone hasn't been making enough Merit recently

Thai temple fights off encroaching tide as world sea levels rise

Wow! (your new nickname) tks for the link.

Let me paste this interesting 2008 article.

Monday, March 31, 2008

Thai temple fights off encroaching tide as world sea levels rise

By Charlie McDonald-Gibson, AFP

KHUN SAMUT CHIN, Thailand -- Crabs scuttle across the wet floor of the near-deserted Khun Samut temple, the only building left in a Thai village that has disappeared beneath the rising and advancing sea. Waging a battle against an encroaching tide that has sent all the villagers fleeing inland, a monk in orange robes and faded tattoos meant to ward off evil spirits stalks the newly-built sea wall, planting mangrove shoots.

Somnuek Atipanya points 20 meters (65 feet) out to sea, where electricity pylons poke out of the water, now useful only for resting marine birds.

"The waves attacked here and they will destroy everything," says Somnuek, chief abbot of this Buddhist temple south of Bangkok which is surrounded by water and accessible only by a concrete walkway.

"I don't know what happened, but when the experts came they told me it was global warning and melting ice in the North Pole."

Over 30 years, the sea around Khun Samut Chin village has engulfed more than one kilometer (0.6 miles) of land, World Bank figures show, mostly because fishermen have cut down mangrove forests -- the Earth's natural sea barrier.

Tourism development, sand mining and damming rivers upstream have also taken their toll in an area naturally prone to coastal erosion.

The community have realized their errors and are trying to replant the mangroves, but the situation may soon be out of their hands as global warming sends sea levels rising and powerful storms lashing the coast.

"The process has been occurring over some time and accelerating with land use changes and local human activity," says Jitendra Shah, the World Bank's environmental coordinator in Thailand.

"Climate change impacts are likely to accelerate the pace and make things worse in the future."

Coastal erosion of varying degrees affects 21 percent of Thailand's coastline, says Greenpeace climate campaigner Tara Buakamsri, citing figures from Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

Along the Gulf of Thailand, seaside areas seriously affected by erosion are receding at a rate of five to 20 meters per year.

Climate scientists say that as global warming heats the Earth up, glaciers and polar ice caps will melt and sea waters will expand, sending oceans rising by at least 18 centimeters (7.2 inches), or possibly a great deal more by 2100.

World sea levels rose 3.1 millimeters per year from 1993 to 2003, the Nobel-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says.

This is not good news for the five monks who remain at Khun Samut temple. Despite their best efforts, they may not be able to save the site from the same fate that befell Khun Samut Chin's sunken school and homes.

Visanu Kengsamut, 26, has already moved three times in his life, while his mother -- the village chief -- has fled the crumbling coast and rebuilt her home eight times, and each time the village has paid for its own relocation.

Khun Samut Chin now sits about one kilometer inland from the temple.

"We know that the cause of this is the effects of global warming," says Visanu.

"This problem, everybody should take responsibility and the government should help. If possible, the international community should come to help because they started the problem."

As the world tries to work out a new pact to battle the threat posed by global warming, poorer countries -- who the IPCC says will suffer the most from climate change -- are battling to have their voices heard.

They argue that because the industrialized world was historically most responsible for global warming, they should contribute generously to a fund to help poor countries adapt to the changing world.

The so-called adaptation and mitigation fund will likely be discussed at key United Nations climate change talks in Bangkok from March 31 to April 4.

"Whether or not it is a small contribution or major contribution related to climate change in the past, this community needs to be taken into account when they discuss about the mitigation measure or adaptation fund," says Greenpeace's Tara.

"Because they are facing the impact -- they are one of the first groups in Thailand that is facing the impact."

[ThaiAdventure]

"This problem, everybody should take responsibility and the government should help. If possible, the international community should come to help because they started the problem."

Those pesky farang been choppping down trees again?

They argue that because the industrialized world was historically most responsible for global warming, they should contribute generously to a fund to help poor countries adapt to the changing world.

Ooops. No. Lets ignore the facts and blame warming so we get some money

"Because they are facing the impact -- they are one of the first groups in Thailand that is facing the impact."

Thats a gem of a statement

Edited June 3, 2008 by ThaiAdventure

[Khun Jean]

CO2 released to the atmosphere is caused by climate change. Not the other way around.

If it gets warmer you will get more evaporation which leads to more snow, which leads to growing of the ice.

It is just a cycle caused by the differences in the sun. Nothing we as a species can do about it.

Taxing people for driving their car and heating their house will not change that. What it does is make certain people rich and industrialized countries as a whole more poor as their industrie has to pay dearly, while the biggest polluters (air quality , not global warming nonsense) make a killing. Bye bye US, UK, EU.

And to be on topic again. Seas may rise, but land can also rise (The Alps are a good example). Depends on which tectonic plate. Go check the geografic specifics of Thailand and see why it might be true.

[plachon]

CO2 released to the atmosphere is caused by climate change. Not the other way around.

If it gets warmer you will get more evaporation which leads to more snow, which leads to growing of the ice.

It is just a cycle caused by the differences in the sun. Nothing we as a species can do about it.

Taxing people for driving their car and heating their house will not change that. What it does is make certain people rich and industrialized countries as a whole more poor as their industrie has to pay dearly, while the biggest polluters (air quality , not global warming nonsense) make a killing. Bye bye US, UK, EU.

And to be on topic again. Seas may rise, but land can also rise (The Alps are a good example). Depends on which tectonic plate. Go check the geografic specifics of Thailand and see why it might be true.

Right......I get it (I think)..........the warmer it gets the more snow, and the more snow that falls the more ice ............ then presumably it gets cooler and we're all back to square one? MARVELLOUS LOGIC!

But what if it gets much, much warmer and what once fell as snow, now falls as rain and where once there was ice there is now rock, soil or water. What then? And the ice caps and glaciers start to recede and big chunks of ice calve away from Arctic and Antarctic then what? And sea levels start to rise and villages along the Gulf of Thailand start to be engulfed by the sea? And the bulk of the world's climate scientists say it's due to CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases from manmade sources and government's across the world broadly accept this hypothesis. Then what? Time to bury our heads in the sand and spout non-sensical junk, like "nothing as a species we can do about it" and "bye bye US,UK, EU", methinks.

By the way, did I miss something about UK leaving the EU and the mysterious paucity of snow in UK these past few decades, despite rising temperatures?? Your theory suggests there should be more and an advancing ice front moving south.

[Khun Jean]

^ I can see you drank too much 'Al Gore Kool Aid'.

Better do some real research instead of just repeating what has been shown on the television.

Internet is very helpfull for that.

And are you serious about 'the bulk of the scientists'?

Explain to me then why in the last 10 years the earth did not get warmer?

Lookup some ERS-1 and 2 data and wonder why the greenland ice sheets are growing. Would that happen if there was global warming. Calculations based on that data shows a sea level rise of a few millimeters. Hardly enough for cities to engulfed by the sea. And those few millimeters are probably just caused by normal climate fluctuations.

Problem is, people saw Al Gore and believed him. Now we are a few years further and most things he said are simply not true. And it is hard to argue with real measurements. Computer models used for Al Gores THEORY are now know to be not correct, because those measurements contradict what has been PREDICTED.

Even Einstein was wrong with a few theories. Nothing wrong with being wrong, but now as many governments adopted this theory as a good excuse to raise tax, admitting it will cost billions.

So you see. Because of a PREDICTION and a THEORY most of us are paying more tax than ever.

And another small fact.

All the planets in our solar system are a little bit warmer. Is that also caused by 'our' co2 emissions.

11.500 is also a nice number to search for. Of you go, much studying to do.

Edited June 3, 2008 by Khun Jean

[Khun Jean]

And just to give a more realistic perspective of co2.

Plants and animals contribute about 150 gigatons of co2 each year.

Rotting plants even more, oceans a magnitude higher than that.

Human activity contributes about 6.5 gigaton.

So if you do a rough estimate 150 (plants, animals) + 200 (rotting plants and leaves) + 500 (oceans, very low estimate) = 850 gigatons per year.

Humans about 6.5 gigaton so that is almost 0.77%

All the co2 together is about 0.054% of the atmosphere.

So let's assume we change our ways on a global scale and produce no co2 at all.

That would mean the percentage of co2 would drop from 0.054% to around 0.0535%.

Sure, we are the cause of global warming.

Edited June 3, 2008 by Khun Jean

[nomoretalksin]

Regarding: "Rising Sea Levels and/or global disturbing climate changes & possible earthquakes & cyclones"

http://www.thailandoutlook.tv/toc/ViewData...?DataID=1007346

Quote

Experts Warn Bangkok Residents to Brace for Future Major Quakes & Floods

UPDATE : 5 June 2008

Bangkok residents are being warned to be on a look out for possible major earthquakes and floods in the near future.

National Disaster Warning Center Director Smith Thammasaroj said that Bangkok and nearby provinces are at risk of future earthquakes as the areas are located near the two fault lines in Kanchanaburi Province.

And with two major dams located in Kanchanaburi, the capital and its vicinity are also at risk of being flooded with 17 million cubic meters of water.

Moreover, buildings in greater Bangkok, Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai that have been affected by several tremors since 2004 are now so structurally vulnerable and some may collapse if hit by heavy quakes in the future.

Smith specifically suggested that buildings with six storeys are at greater risk of collapsing than high-rise structures.

He also predicted Thailand would be hit by more tropical storms during the months of August and October, while the capital would face flooding for a few weeks.

Meanwhile, seismic expert from Chulalongkorn University, Professor Panitan Lukkunaprasit added that more than two million structures in the country have not been designed to cope with earthquake, particularly all public buildings, such as schools and hospitals, as well as bridges and expressways.

Panitan is calling on all related state offices to start examining the strength of all at-risk buildings and structures, while suggesting that the government should make the matter a national agenda and allocate a special budget as well as convene a meeting of all specialists to plan preventative measures against the effects of all natural disasters and global warming as soon as possible.

Unquote

[rafval]

And just to give a more realistic perspective of co2.

Plants and animals contribute about 150 gigatons of co2 each year.

Rotting plants even more, oceans a magnitude higher than that.

Human activity contributes about 6.5 gigaton.

So if you do a rough estimate 150 (plants, animals) + 200 (rotting plants and leaves) + 500 (oceans, very low estimate) = 850 gigatons per year.

Humans about 6.5 gigaton so that is almost 0.77%

All the co2 together is about 0.054% of the atmosphere.

So let's assume we change our ways on a global scale and produce no co2 at all.

That would mean the percentage of co2 would drop from 0.054% to around 0.0535%.

Sure, we are the cause of global warming.

do you get paid for this? I need a job, I can say things like "despite the last 10 years being the hottest in the last 10000 years the fact that it cooled slightly last year makes it obvious that global warming is over and we are entering a new ice age" with a straight face, Im not so good at belittling people but i still think I can do the job

[Khun Jean]

Al Gore gets paid huge amounts to say the opposite, so i guess there is a opening for you.

Show me anything from the last 50 years that show global warming is happening and co2 is the cause.

I am really open for real data, global warming, cooling whatever it may be.

Now everybody is guessing but we we will know for sure in a few decades.

[jumnien]

I was anchoring the speedboat off Sam Roi Yod yesterday and got the propeller in the muddy bottom. Sure could have used a bit more water. Any good news that its coming soon? The whole coast near Hua Hin is so shallow. It will be fantastic for boating to have the extra inches or feet and will open up an entire new playground for boating and enjoying nature!

Edited June 5, 2008 by sunrise07

[nomoretalksin]

double quicky (post)

Edited June 5, 2008 by nomoretalksin

[nomoretalksin]

Al Gore gets paid huge amounts to say the opposite, so i guess there is a opening for you.

Show me anything from the last 50 years that show global warming is happening and co2 is the cause.

I am really open for real data, global warming, cooling whatever it may be.

Now everybody is guessing but we we will know for sure in a few decades.

Yeah sure, no worries mate, you can sooner or later (or your kids) can park up right outside your 1st floor Bedroom from your house.

The floating market will also be extended until Sam Roi Yod, so you don't need to leave your house. Just call them from your 1st floor.

[Spee]

CO2 released to the atmosphere is caused by climate change. Not the other way around.

If it gets warmer you will get more evaporation which leads to more snow, which leads to growing of the ice.

It is just a cycle caused by the differences in the sun. Nothing we as a species can do about it.

Taxing people for driving their car and heating their house will not change that. What it does is make certain people rich and industrialized countries as a whole more poor as their industrie has to pay dearly, while the biggest polluters (air quality , not global warming nonsense) make a killing. Bye bye US, UK, EU.

Right on the money, KJ.

And to be on topic again. Seas may rise, but land can also rise (The Alps are a good example). Depends on which tectonic plate. Go check the geografic specifics of Thailand and see why it might be true.

This should all be intuitively obvious, but intuition is the first thinking process that gets zombied when one drinks the climate change koolaid.

Contrary to popular opinion, the earth is not round, ie, not a perfect sphere. The earth is not static. It is constantly moving in three dimensions, around the sun and along and around its axis of rotation. Also, different places on the earth experience different gravitational forces, hence, the tides and currents. Sea level at one point on the globe may be different than sea level at another point in the globe (meaning not all sea level points are equal to the same radius from the earth's center).

As such, it is absolutely stupid and silly to think that a change in sea level in one part of the globe due to melting ice will drastically change the sea level in another part of the globe. There simply is no cause and effect relationship. Similarly, in major cooling periods such as the Artic winter, there is a massive amount of ice growth but the sea level in places like Thailand doesn't change in the slightest as a result.

The sun, the oceans and major seismic events like volcanic eruptions are the proverbial "900-pound gorillas" of global climate. Anything and everything else, aside from the potential of another Yucatan-style catastrophic meteorite impact, is statistically insignificant. Global warming or global climate change koolaid may significantly alter one's thinking, but it certainly won't alter the basic physical facts.

[nomoretalksin]

Al Gore gets paid huge amounts to say the opposite, so i guess there is a opening for you.

Show me anything from the last 50 years that show global warming is happening and co2 is the cause.

I am really open for real data, global warming, cooling whatever it may be.

Now everybody is guessing but we we will know for sure in a few decades.

I'm not sure, but I think It's the raising sea levels and climate change (see more cyclones, hurricanes

etc. all over the world), which will cause us problems. I wonder what your point is on Thailand?

Will be get more coastal loose, as most predict? Or you also think otherwise there and also not agree with points

laid out be Mr. Smith (see last 4 pages)?

I'm just reading last view pages that you keep pondering on the CO2 issue and that the humans

actually still produce a to small number to make an impact on global warming (your point) which

they claim is not natural anymore.

I also read, by the way that actually (maybe)

"Methane" from the northern hemisphere's tundra permafrost regions, will speed up the green-house affect, and then will chocka-blocking most gases

within our athmosphere, and that this, will be possibly the catastrophic tipping point. Any views on that?

Links:

http://www.communicationagents.com/sepp/20...bon_dioxide.htm

or just google up "global warming" +methane

Thanks for keeping this upmost import thread alive (title is stupid), but I can't find a better

thread, to collect and further input news found about:

"Rising Sea Levels and/or global disturbing climate changes & possible earthquakes & cyclones"

thanks!

Edited June 5, 2008 by nomoretalksin

[plachon]

I was anchoring the speedboat off Sam Roi Yod yesterday and got the propeller in the muddy bottom. Sure could have used a bit more water. Any good news that its coming soon? The whole coast near Hua Hin is so shallow. It will be fantastic for boating to have the extra inches or feet and will open up an entire new playground for boating and enjoying nature!

Troll alert. Come out from under your bridge before those water levels rise and drown you and sink your tub.

[plachon]

Regarding: "Rising Sea Levels and/or global disturbing climate changes & possible earthquakes & cyclones"

http://www.thailandoutlook.tv/toc/ViewData...?DataID=1007346

Quote

Experts Warn Bangkok Residents to Brace for Future Major Quakes & Floods

UPDATE : 5 June 2008

Bangkok residents are being warned to be on a look out for possible major earthquakes and floods in the near future.

National Disaster Warning Center Director Smith Thammasaroj said that Bangkok and nearby provinces are at risk of future earthquakes as the areas are located near the two fault lines in Kanchanaburi Province.

And with two major dams located in Kanchanaburi, the capital and its vicinity are also at risk of being flooded with 17 million cubic meters of water.

Moreover, buildings in greater Bangkok, Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai that have been affected by several tremors since 2004 are now so structurally vulnerable and some may collapse if hit by heavy quakes in the future.

Smith specifically suggested that buildings with six storeys are at greater risk of collapsing than high-rise structures.

He also predicted Thailand would be hit by more tropical storms during the months of August and October, while the capital would face flooding for a few weeks.

Meanwhile, seismic expert from Chulalongkorn University, Professor Panitan Lukkunaprasit added that more than two million structures in the country have not been designed to cope with earthquake, particularly all public buildings, such as schools and hospitals, as well as bridges and expressways.

Panitan is calling on all related state offices to start examining the strength of all at-risk buildings and structures, while suggesting that the government should make the matter a national agenda and allocate a special budget as well as convene a meeting of all specialists to plan preventative measures against the effects of all natural disasters and global warming as soon as possible.

Unquote

Smith seems to be turning into a regular moh doo these days, since his getting on the money with the tsunami, both predicting the possibility before and cashing in after with the job of putting in warning system and various other lucrative deals. His predictions of major flood risk and quake risk for Bangkok are probably quite sound (in the next 10 - 100 years),but I don't think he can accurately forecast "more tropical storms during the months of August and October (surely it must be "August to October"), unless he has ESP on these things. Bangkok or at least parts of the city, face flooding of a few weeks to sometimes over a month nearly every year, so that prediction is nothing special.

I seem to recall he was a close buddy of Toxin after the tsunami, but may have fallen out later over something or other. But he is obviously in with the PPP nowadays. Does anyone know his record as to honesty and accountability with state budgets, or could this be a new black hole agency for funding the favoured few's hobbies and expensive tastes? In other words, does this guy have a political agenda, or is he by the book?

[harleyclarkey]

'We are too far from melting glaciers or ice sheets.'

Don't know about you lot....but when I fill my bath the water at one end (tap end) is usually the same depth as the other end....like the end where the water didn't come in.

Am I missing something these rocket scientists know??

[Richard W]

Contrary to popular opinion, the earth is not round, ie, not a perfect sphere. The earth is not static. It is constantly moving in three dimensions, around the sun and along and around its axis of rotation. Also, different places on the earth experience different gravitational forces, hence, the tides and currents. Sea level at one point on the globe may be different than sea level at another point in the globe (meaning not all sea level points are equal to the same radius from the earth's center).

Yes, but if you add enough water to raise the level in one place one metre, the water will rise rise by between 99 and 101 cm in all the other places. Gravity at sea level doesn't differ enough to allow more difference. Now, adding more water to the oceans and not to the land may cause the continents to tilt, but it's generally a slow process - Scotland is still rising as a result of its glaciers melting away many thousands of years ago. However, you don't get rises much faster than one centimetre a year. To counterbalance the rising, London is sinking.

The earth tides have an amplitude of no more than about 55cm.

As such, it is absolutely stupid and silly to think that a change in sea level in one part of the globe due to melting ice will drastically change the sea level in another part of the globe. There simply is no cause and effect relationship. Similarly, in major cooling periods such as the Artic winter, there is a massive amount of ice growth but the sea level in places like Thailand doesn't change in the slightest as a result.

The change between sea water and sea ice has no effect on the overall balance - what makes the difference is land ice becoming sea water. However, the thermal expansion of sea water may be another matter - the oceans are deep while a lot of land is very close to sea level.

Richard.

[jumnien]

I was anchoring the speedboat off Sam Roi Yod yesterday and got the propeller in the muddy bottom. Sure could have used a bit more water. Any good news that its coming soon? The whole coast near Hua Hin is so shallow. It will be fantastic for boating to have the extra inches or feet and will open up an entire new playground for boating and enjoying nature!

Troll alert. Come out from under your bridge before those water levels rise and drown you and sink your tub.

Looks like Plachon is definitely a troll. Dolphin Bay was the exact spot. PM me and I might invite you out for a cruise, if for no other reason than to keep you from TROLLING!

[Spee]

Contrary to popular opinion, the earth is not round, ie, not a perfect sphere. The earth is not static. It is constantly moving in three dimensions, around the sun and along and around its axis of rotation. Also, different places on the earth experience different gravitational forces, hence, the tides and currents. Sea level at one point on the globe may be different than sea level at another point in the globe (meaning not all sea level points are equal to the same radius from the earth's center).

Yes, but if you add enough water to raise the level in one place one metre, the water will rise rise by between 99 and 101 cm in all the other places. Gravity at sea level doesn't differ enough to allow more difference. Now, adding more water to the oceans and not to the land may cause the continents to tilt, but it's generally a slow process - Scotland is still rising as a result of its glaciers melting away many thousands of years ago. However, you don't get rises much faster than one centimetre a year. To counterbalance the rising, London is sinking.

The earth tides have an amplitude of no more than about 55cm.

This is the theoretical amplitude (not including peaks), which makes the following assumptions: 1) the oceans have a uniform depth, 2) there are no land masses and 3) the Earth is not rotating about 3 axes. It is essentially the "bath tub syndrome" that an earlier poster hinted at.

While this is all well and good in theory, again it is intuitively obvious that things are quite different in reality, where tides in some areas in the world are hardly noticeable and tides in other areas of the world can be several meters between high and low.

[Khun Jean]

Many computer models leave out 'small' things like Spee mentioned. The computer power needed to include those is net yet available. I should know because computers are my business.

As a good example of what is possible you should look to the predictions about the weather.

Thailand would not be interesting because if you say that the next 5 days will be sunny with an occasional shower you are right for almost the whole year.

In Europe (The netherlands specific) the weather forecast are still very inaccurate. On a wednesday they predict that saturday will be 28 celsius and sunny. Tursday it is 'calibrated' with new data and it is 24 degrees with occasional clouds by friday after a new calibration the forecast is 16 with thunder and rain.

When you open the curtains on saturday yu see that it is occasional sunny with a little drizzel for an hour.

That was a real observation from last week.

Take that same computerpower or better a factor 1000 less because the al gore models were calculated on machines a few years ago. Make the timeperiod longer, leave out many small things that computerpower will not be able to calculate and you have a recipie for a very inaccurate calculation. The co2 effect was not a surprise result because the model was calculating the effect of c02 without considering many 'small' effects.

What is clear now is that those 'small' effects cancel out most if not everything from those calculations.

I mentioned co2 many times because that is the hoax. As another member mentioned the focus now very slowly goes to methane and it is not called global warming anymore but climate change. All 'signals' that the whole global warming hoax is falling down. Losing face is also in the west very difficult.

Think about that chart for gore again, the one showing c02 levels compared to samples found in ice core from many many decades ago. Then think of how co2 would be trapped in ice? Wouldn't a hot climate melt ice and erase those 'records' from history. And would a cold period not be with less co2?

Water levels are not like in your bath tub. If it was that easy we would have much better results with models representing the world. One way for scientist to get better results is to get their noses out of the computer screens and look out the window more. There is where the real world is.

I not looked up the tectonic movements of Thailand but i do know that in the last 40 years the sealevel is lower for most of Thailand. Islands were never that much higher than the sealevels and erosion (also manmade) is the main cause that there is flooding. Some islands even sinks. Relatively it looks like the sea is rising, but in reality a few islands are sinking.

The last measurments of sealevels show that seas are not rising. Why are many ignoring that FACT!

Inconvenient facts?

[jumnien]

The sea level is so low lately that it's getting difficult to get out of Pranburi Marina and the water is way out to sea on the beach. Looks like someone pulled the plug!

[siamiam]

This link is to the U.S. Environmental Protection Egency website. I don't know anything about this subject, or weather or not this is a reliable website. Below the link, I pasted in a couple of excerpts from the website, one seems to be at odds with some of Suphat Vongvisessomjai's statements, while the other seems to be in agreement. The second excerpt was found by clicking on the link Future Climate Change Sea Level Rise found at the bottum of the initial website page.

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentslc.html

"Indonesia, Thailand, and Bangladesh are experiencing above-average sea level rise. Northwestern Australia is experiencing below-average sea level rise, a trend that is evident in much of the ocean between western Australia and East Africa. Most of the Pacific and Atlantic basins are experiencing average to above-average sea level rise. Many coastal areas outside of the U.S., Europe and Japan have too few tide gauges to be sure about long-term trends in regional sea level rise. "

"According to the IPCC, current model projections indicate substantial variability in future sea level rise between different locations. Some locations could experience sea level rise higher than the global average projection, while others could have a fall in sea level. The same factors that currently cause sea level to rise more rapidly along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, and less rapidly in parts of the Pacific Northwest, are likely to continue. Changes in winds, atmospheric pressure and ocean currents will also cause regional variations in sea level rise - but those variations cannot be reliably predicted."