Can Thailand escape a second wave of COVID-19?

[Sheryl]

12 minutes ago, JimmyJ said:

It's been claimed that the 2nd wave CV now in Vietnam is a newer more lethal virus.

 

The virus, like all viruses, is constantly mutating (which is why they can trace where it came from country-wise) but there is no evidence it is becoming more lethal in Viet Nam and that is not what usually happens. On the contrary, viruses typically mutate, given enough time (it can take a while)  to be less lethal (but more infectious) since that is what favors their replication.

 

0-4 deaths a day so far in August in  Viet Nam, hardly a sign of lethality.

 

Even with no mutation, the same virus will be more or less lethal according to (1) who gets infected (always higher death rate if it gets into a nursing home, for example) and (2)  how heavy an innoculum people are exposed to ("super spreader" events not only infect more people but also tend to give people larger doses of the virus due to such characteristics as indoor crowding).

[DrTuner]

On 8/17/2020 at 4:52 PM, Marco100 said:

Good news seems , according to italian study,  that the Virus is loosing it strength and most are asymptomatic. 

Are you referring to this or something else?

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ

Quote

“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.

That was already 2 months ago.

[Sheryl]

8 hours ago, poskat said:

the problem with these health "experts" is that they just throw around words that dont apply here.

thialand didnt have an epidemic, it had a number of outbreaks that didnt result in wide-spread infection, i.e. a first wave.

 

even if we accept the officials' concern that no cases just mean they are all asymptomatic, which I dont, I think we need to remind ourselves that asymptomatic is just a fancy way for saying infected but didnt get sick. If there really is this underbelly of many infected but not sick after so many 14 day-incubation periods. that indicates that the virus they are getting infected with is no loner virulent enough to make someone sick

 

 

Unfortunately no, if doesn't.

 

Rather it indicates that (1) so far the rate of spread has been pretty slow, not enough people are getting it to produce a noticeable number of symptomatic cases; (2) the mode of spread is such that people are not getting exposed to large concentrations of the virus (may be related to the tendency for a lot of events  -- Buddhist pagoda festivals, for example, and even drinking/eating out upcountry--  to take place in outdoor rather than indoor settings); and/or (3) mostly  the people who have been getting infected so far are younger healthy people. 

 

It is also possible there is a high level of cross-immunity in the Thai population, though this has not been studied that I know of. 

 

What is highly unlikely is that the virus itself, in such a short time period, has become objectively less virulent. That sort of change,  does happen, but usually takes much, much  longer.

 

It is entirely possible in such conditions  (relatively slow spread, low innoculums, mostly in lower risk people) for the virus to hum along at a low level of transmission for many months with so few symptomatic cases that it is not noticeable.

 

We now know there were something like 11,000 infections in New York City, dating all the way back to January,  before the first case was identified there in March...and you know what then followed.

 

Since increases are exponential, it can be imperceptible for quite a while (e.g, NYC January-February) and then suddenly seem to explode. That is what exponential curves look like.

 

[jadee]

I think all this talk of a second wave is misguided - the world is still very much 'in' the first wave. If you look at country-by-country data this isn't apparent, but if you look at global infection rates, it's very clear. Global infections just passed 21 million, on average 250k new cases per day, total deaths 750k+. 

[TeaMonkey]

The Chinese are really worried about a second wave

 

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/china-partygoers-cram-into-wuhan-water-park/ar-BB183kn3

[2 is 1]

Thailand haddle good first "wave" of virus! Only possible in coundry who's leader have hole power to oder they citizen's!

What is look like, there is not going to be vaccine whitch save us from this pandemic! Coundry's cant be lock down forever virus or not! Stuff and people need move! Can't go back to time where camel or horse deliver stuff and Marco Polo watch what happen in other side of globe! Many catastrophe movie start just like this covid sht!

Continue life and we take hit! Maybe exbensive for most of us, but we can't let this win!

[Paiman]

The current regime is having wet dreams with the second wave scare ongoing. An opportunity for tyrants and tyrants to be.

 

Justifies to keep the state of emergency on for a few generations until nobody remembers ever living differently in the new normal with restricted freedom.

 

Most likely Thailand will never have a second wave, did not have a first wave.

 

But soon there will also be no more economy that can be revived and the poorest part of the population will continue with the silent suffering.

 

[brucec64]

On 8/17/2020 at 9:51 PM, BLACKJACK2 said:

There is no evidence that their will be a second wave and using the Spanish flu as an example is crazy. Soldiers returning from the battlefield, packed into troop ships and trains, malnourished, large field hospitals, it's was a completely different world.

You are right that it's different world, but still...

 

 

[Mark Nothing]

Engenious manipulation tactics.  Get the public confused on arguing issues of no relevance like 1st wave/2nd wave, facemask/or not, vaccinate/or not, while the main goals are acheived.

 

Don't look at "explanations".  Look at what is actually occurring.

 

Citizens locked down in their own home prison.  Fearful of an invisible enemy. 

 

Travel effectively outlawed. Borders closed. Whole industries shuttered (airline, hotel, cruise ship, travel agents).

 

Small businesses ordered closed while Big businesses like amazon.com double in share price since March 2020. Convenient result.

 

I would recommend enabling your critical thinking skills and realize the possibility exists that your health and best interests are not the objective. 

 

Unfortunately a lifetime of experience confirms.

 

  

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, jadee said:

I think all this talk of a second wave is misguided - the world is still very much 'in' the first wave. If you look at country-by-country data this isn't apparent, but if you look at global infection rates, it's very clear. Global infections just passed 21 million, on average 250k new cases per day, total deaths 750k+. 

The countries aren't synchronized, even the US states are in different phases. A breakdown of the global picture will give a few outliers that are bad - currently US, Spain, India and Brazil. Europe has passed the first impact ( Spain opened up tourism at the cost of new infections ) , as has most of SEA & East Asia.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?tab=map

 

[CGW]

2 hours ago, Mark Nothing said:

I would recommend enabling your critical thinking skills and realize the possibility exists that your health and best interests are not the objective. 

Indeed! that people still think that this is about the "virus" is beyond my comprehension, one thing that has happened in the past is that an excellent "program" has been instituted that has destroyed the majority of people's ability to thing for themselves, critical thinking is now frowned upon by the masses!

TV "programming"? 

 

The basic rules of social engineering are that 70% believe whatever they are told if it's in "their" media - cognitive dissonance".

20% will come around to thinking the same as the majority, despite initial doubts, through peer pressure or a constant onslaught of misinformation. 

10% will remain sceptical, but they will be ignored and the masses will overrule them!

Social engineering 101, the "Club of Rome, Bilderbergs, WEF, UN etc are well aware of this - obviously!

[DrTuner]

11 hours ago, CGW said:

The basic rules of social engineering are that 70% believe whatever they are told if it's in "their" media - cognitive dissonance".

20% will come around to thinking the same as the majority, despite initial doubts, through peer pressure or a constant onslaught of misinformation. 

10% will remain sceptical, but they will be ignored and the masses will overrule them!

Social engineering 101, the "Club of Rome, Bilderbergs, WEF, UN etc are well aware of this - obviously!

And then there's the 0.1% of total nutters that are the cause of the 20% swinging to mainstream media. You just don't want to be associated with them.

 

Reliable information is hard to get. Always has been, it's power. It's also the reason I'm a long term patron of wikipedia. Which reminds me, time to do my yearly donation. 

[CGW]

6 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Reliable information is hard to get. Always has been, it's power. It's also the reason I'm a long term patron of wikipedia. Which reminds me, time to do my yearly donation.

I agree 100% that reliable information is "difficult" at best, to find - I'm surprised that you find Wiki reliable, I have tended to steer clear as "anyone" can post there, which I guess can work both ways.

 

Disinformation is as much a part of the MSM as "information" the 0'1% are often paid for, that way they have a reason to protect the masses from "fake news"

Interesting times we are going through ???? 

Wonder what they have in store for us next ???? - Aliens, induced food supply disruption or just a good old fashioned Police state? 

[DrTuner]

Just now, CGW said:

I agree 100% that reliable information is "difficult" at best, to find - I'm surprised that you find Wiki reliable, I have tended to steer clear as "anyone" can post there, which I guess can work both ways.

Not reliable at all, but it's an outlet for gathering links and a decent starting point for research. I remember the time before it, I spent hours and hours roaming the halls of libraries. Now I can find a clue in minutes.

[CGW]

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Now I can find a clue in minutes.

Yes, I can see your reasoning there! the difficult bit is discerning the facts................................................ !