Can Thailand escape a second wave of COVID-19?

 

 

Despite impressive results in controlling COVID-19, Thailand is not immune to a second wave of infections, experts warn

 

Many factors could trigger a fresh surge of infections nationwide, according to Prof Dr Thiravat Hemachudha, director of the Thai Red Cross Emerging Infectious Disease Health Science Centre.

 

“First and foremost, Thais have become convinced that the country is completely free from COVID-19 cases and are now lowering their guard. By not wearing a face mask, frequently washing hands and maintaining social distancing, they have built risks,” the medical expert pointed out.

 

Thailand has not seen a local transmission of the virus for about 80 days, according to data from the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration. However, Thiravat warned it was impossible for Thailand to be completely free of local COVID-19 cases just six months after the virus began spreading across the world and when many countries are still experiencing high infection rates. It may appear that coronavirus has been eradicated from the country, but only because infected people are asymptomatic, he said.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/can-thailand-escape-a-second-wave-of-covid-19/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2020-08-17

 

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I should say no.....as soon as the borders are open, back it will come bigger than ever into a naive population

 

lockdown forever baby, play it same, kill the rest of the economy

Just like all the other pandemics that preceded this one they will always linger on.  

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand has not seen a local transmission of the virus for about 80 days

But 1,400 new PUI cases every day...

No, no they can't it's here to stay...

People confuse a second wave with localised spikes and resurgence of the original "wave" of infection. There is no proof at all that a "real" second wave of infection will happen, but people are terrified of the prospect because of the dreadful consequences it had during the Spanish flu. Little is known about what caused that second wave and why it was so much deadlier than the first, but there's no reason that it's bound to happen with SARS-COV-2. This guy doesn't think it will, and he knows his stuff:

 

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2175148/coronavirus-second-wave-of-deadly-virus-described-as-very-unlikely-by-expert/

 

2 minutes ago, Guderian said:

People confuse a second wave with localised spikes and resurgence of the original "wave" of infection. There is no proof at all that a "real" second wave of infection will happen, but people are terrified of the prospect because of the dreadful consequences it had during the Spanish flu. Little is known about what caused that second wave and why it was so much deadlier than the first, but there's no reason that it's bound to happen with SARS-COV-2. This guy doesn't think it will, and he knows his stuff:

 

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2175148/coronavirus-second-wave-of-deadly-virus-described-as-very-unlikely-by-expert/

 

Good to know

 

I think covid is here to stay unless a vaccine is forthcoming very quickly, unless the junta is willing and able to completely lockdown the country for the long term and enforce it, essentially financial suicide then this is coming

 

I am completely unconvinced with the figures quoted for LoS but for some reason they appear to have got off lightly for whatever reason. If there are multiple strains then that may be part of the reason who knows...

 

Cannot imagine how it can be controlled other than complete isolation, anybody know how N Korea is getting on....

I am still waiting for a test that actually tests for a virus or an infection !

The PCR test they use right now does not test any of these things .... Science !!!

Thailand will not evade a second wave of Corona Virus.

As soon as the Borders are open to Tourists, the Virus will be here. That is a cold hard fact.

The main issue is how will the Authorities react.

Many people do not believe the testing methods here, and the population is now blase about the Covid threat. they  do not Distance, wash hands and only put on a mask when entering a 7/11 or Supermarket.

However, the population is also absolutely Paranoid about the Virus, as the Egyptian Soldier Incident in Rayong demonstrates.

Too much propaganda for these Folk to take in , with conflicting stories on an almost Daily basis, which is leaving them confused and scared. 

2 hours ago, Pedrogaz said:

I should say no.....as soon as the borders are open, back it will come bigger than ever into a naive population

 

Maybe you are a bit confused my friends !

The Land Borders Myanmar,  Cambodia,  Laos , Vietnam are already open to all those Countries Cheap Labor  needed to come to Thailand to build and farm and fish !

Have you ever seen the hygienic condition of a Birmanian Working Camp ?

I live it to your imagination . I saw it and do not want to dig further . 

As dr Thiravat mentions  , the Virus is there , just people are asymptomatic. 

( See the Italian found positive arriving from Thailand last week ...).

Good news seems , according to italian study,  that the Virus is loosing it strength and most are asymptomatic. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Pedrogaz said:

I should say no.....as soon as the borders are open, back it will come bigger than ever into a naive population

 

Vietnam, Bhutan, Hongkong, Singapore - none opened the borders. Any arrival goes into quarantine. They cannot control it suddenly. An asymptomatjc carrier infected a person who reacted. In TH it may just be called pneumonia.

 

28 minutes ago, Marco100 said:

Maybe you are a bit confused my friends !

The Land Borders Myanmar,  Cambodia,  Laos , Vietnam are already open to all those Countries Cheap Labor  needed to come to Thailand to build and farm and fish !

Have you ever seen the hygienic condition of a Birmanian Working Camp ?

I live it to your imagination . I saw it and do not want to dig further . 

As dr Thiravat mentions  , the Virus is there , just people are asymptomatic. 

( See the Italian found positive arriving from Thailand last week ...).

Good news seems , according to italian study,  that the Virus is loosing it strength and most are asymptomatic. 

 

 

It is not losing strength but infected ppl are now the younger group showing less symptoms but still spread.

1 hour ago, Guderian said:

People confuse a second wave with localised spikes and resurgence of the original "wave" of infection. There is no proof at all that a "real" second wave of infection will happen

According to the figures we haven't had a first wave yet, more of a ripple.

We still waiting for the first wave.

It looks like it don't come anymore.

3 hours ago, timendres said:

But 1,400 new PUI cases every day...

With that many PUI per day, one would think that there had to be some instances of cOVID-19 community infections, or the test kits are rubbish and showing false positives. Of course, testing might not have been done on these and they are just being monitored. They could also just be presenting symptoms due to colds, last year's flu strain or any number of annual malaises.  Who knows?

To me,it would be more logical to show all the information, including how many have tested positive so far and leave out reporting on those returning to Thailand who go into mandatory quarantine. They are not released into the general population until they have completed the quarantine period and found clear of the virus.. So why make them part of the daily show? Unless it adds to the defense for keeping borders closed.  

2 hours ago, brain150 said:

I am still waiting for a test that actually tests for a virus or an infection !

The PCR test they use right now does not test any of these things .... Science !!!

And good luck to all those waiting for a vaccine to come to the rescue. According to the US CDC, last year's flu vaccine was estimated to have been effective in less than 50% of cases. What are the chances that scientists will have better luck this time round? Everyone must decide for themselves, but with that same efficacy level ,the new vaccine cannot be used to justify opening international borders anywhere. And judging from the continual downward trend for vaccine efficacy, things are not looking good.https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm

5 hours ago, Guderian said:

People confuse a second wave with localised spikes and resurgence of the original "wave" of infection. There is no proof at all that a "real" second wave of infection will happen, but people are terrified of the prospect because of the dreadful consequences it had during the Spanish flu. Little is known about what caused that second wave and why it was so much deadlier than the first, but there's no reason that it's bound to happen with SARS-COV-2. This guy doesn't think it will, and he knows his stuff:

 

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2175148/coronavirus-second-wave-of-deadly-virus-described-as-very-unlikely-by-expert/

 

There is no evidence that their will be a second wave and using the Spanish flu as an example is crazy. Soldiers returning from the battlefield, packed into troop ships and trains, malnourished, large field hospitals, it's was a completely different world.

Already did. That was in March. First was in November-January, as the excess death data from NYT revealed.

3 minutes ago, BLACKJACK2 said:

Soldiers returning from the battlefield, packed into troop ships and trains, malnourished, large field hospitals, it's was a completely different world.

Well, yes, situation was different. However the Chinese zero dollar hordes in the millions ready to invade again do resemble what you describe.

10 hours ago, Guderian said:

People confuse a second wave with localised spikes and resurgence of the original "wave" of infection. There is no proof at all that a "real" second wave of infection will happen, but people are terrified of the prospect because of the dreadful consequences it had during the Spanish flu. Little is known about what caused that second wave and why it was so much deadlier than the first, but there's no reason that it's bound to happen with SARS-COV-2. This guy doesn't think it will, and he knows his stuff:

 

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2175148/coronavirus-second-wave-of-deadly-virus-described-as-very-unlikely-by-expert/

 

True, the "Spanish Flu" that actually began in China... 

4 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

True, the "Spanish Flu" that actually began in China... 

Slight bias there...  there is uncertainty where the Spanish Flu started.... 

 

The Spanish called it the French Flu and were the first to report on it, which is why it became known as the Spanish Flu after being reported by Spanish News Papers. It is though the first outbreaks were in the UK, France and China - its unknown which was first / where it started but was suspected one of those nations. 

 

Regarding the topic of second wave. 

 

Without ‘accurate’ Antibody testing its unknown whether or not Covid-19 already spread through Thailand in November, December, January and February. 

IF it did, if there is immunity, there will of course be no second wave when Thailand re-opens, or at least a very minor one. 

IF however, Thailand someone magically avoided Covid-19 infections, then a second wave once Thailand opens up is very possible. 

IF however, Thai’s and south east asians have some form of natural / genetic immunity, any second way is a moot point, it won’t happen. 

IF the first wave was a minor strain and had little impact, but offers immunity to a more serious strain, Thailand is lucky and the consequences of any second wave are minimal.

IF the first wave was a minor strain and had little impact, but a more serious strain sweeps Thailand once it re-opens is  the consequences of any second wave could be severe.

 

There are too many unknowns, too many scenarios, not enough testing in the right areas, not enough antibody tests and not enough money being spend on generating accurate antibody tests. Not enough research to evaluate whether or not immunity to Covid-19 is actually a thing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is why you let pandemics do their business as there's no way of locking it out forever, not in the modern world.  Merely prolonging the pain.  

No hard and fast rule for what constitutes a "second wave," but there are slight mutations discovered in real time. The risk of a second wave of a more virulent strain is always there.

You can't really compare the efficacy of a vaccine for one family of viruses (flu) with a vaccine for another family (coronavirus).

4 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

Slight bias there...  there is uncertainty where the Spanish Flu started.... 

the problem with these health "experts" is that they just throw around words that dont apply here.

thialand didnt have an epidemic, it had a number of outbreaks that didnt result in wide-spread infection, i.e. a first wave.

 

even if we accept the officials' concern that no cases just mean they are all asymptomatic, which I dont, I think we need to remind ourselves that asymptomatic is just a fancy way for saying infected but didnt get sick. If there really is this underbelly of many infected but not sick after so many 14 day-incubation periods. that indicates that the virus they are getting infected with is no loner virulent enough to make someone sick

 

a virus that is no longer virulent enough to make people sick is the same as there not being a virus.

 

recognizing this fact and allowing all domestic economic activity to resume, while restricting the ingress of those outside thailand now along with extensive financial support for the tourism workers is currently indicated.

 

perhaps delaying a few billion$ military purchases for a few years might be a way to finance this...

9 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

 

@richard_smith237 used the word "uncertainty". So I guess you posted your cover image to support him with the words "may have". Excellent work.

3 hours ago, timendres said:

 

@richard_smith237 used the word "uncertainty". So I guess you posted your cover image to support him with the words "may have". Excellent work.

Good job 

On 8/17/2020 at 4:52 PM, Marco100 said:

 

Good news seems , according to italian study,  that the Virus is loosing it strength and most are asymptomatic. 

 

 

It's been claimed that the 2nd wave CV now in Vietnam is a newer more lethal virus.

Edited August 18, 20205 yr by JimmyJ

On 8/17/2020 at 4:52 PM, Marco100 said:

Maybe you are a bit confused my friends !

The Land Borders Myanmar,  Cambodia,  Laos , Vietnam are already open to all those Countries Cheap Labor  needed to come to Thailand to build and farm and fish !

 

 

Actually no, not yet. Has not been implemented yet. Stalled over issues of who will pay for quarantine.