Sonthi warns crisis likely in May

[Rhys]

Hmmm... Jethro.. What comes next?

[Mobi]

Some choice excerpts from today's Bangkok Post:

Rumblings of a gathering storm

Those in power are promoting good relations with community leaders in the hopes of averting mass demonstrations / The lack of a degree is no obstruction to chairing a university council, it seems / Some people believe in the prediction that the CNS chairman will soon become prime minister

The Council for National Security (CNS) faces a new challenge of ever-increasing mass gatherings, as the Assets Scrutiny Committee (ASC) is close to completing its investigation of corruption cases involving the Thaksin administration, especially deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, his family and close associates.

Also, a chorus of protests from various groups is growing louder and louder as never happened before, to put more pressure on the government, following protests by PTV station and anti-coup groups.

Meanwhile, the re-appointment of Panlop Pinmanee, former deputy chief of the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc), to be in charge of national security affairs means the CNS and government are fully aware of the looming threat of mass demonstrations, timed to coincide with the hearing of the tax evasion case against Khunying Potjaman over Shin Corp share transfers and the Ratchada land deal.

Gen Panlop now works as an adviser to Isoc chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin.

Most important, a huge rally by Thai Rak Thai party supporters is expected when court verdicts on the possible dissolution of the TRT and Democrat parties are delivered on May 30.

According to political analysts, the chances of survival for TRT are "very slim" compared with the Democrat party's.

Undoubtedly pro-Thaksin people, from whom the TRT claimed to have received 16 million votes in the last election, will take to the streets if the party is dissolved.

Apart from dissolution, key executives of the party will be banned from involvement in political activities for five years.

No matter what the future holds, it stands to reason that the CNS and the government are being tested by the imminent threat of mass gatherings and will need to take precautions in dealing with possible riots in a careful manner......

........The regional armies have also arranged meetings with all leaders in local administrations on a regular basis to make sure they do not get out of line.

.....The nearer the political situation comes to a turning point, the more the regional armies need to tighten their grip on local community leaders, who play a key role in decision-making at the community level and in whom villagers place great trust.....

....Besides, soldiers from Army Region 1, the most important strategic area, have been sent to keep a close watch over the local community leaders, who might have connections with the old powers and lead mass gatherings.

.......Army Commander-in-Chief and Council for National Security (CNS) chairman Sonthi Boonyaratkalin has been non-committal when asked about his political ambitions. Whenever prodded by reporters whether or not he would take the prime ministership, he has answered along these lines: "I could have accepted the post if I wanted to" or "I will take the post if I want it, but I'd rather not."

Gen Sonthi is considered a candidate for premiership whenever there are rumour about Surayud Chulanont stepping down. As a leader of the Sept 19 coup, he is believed to be strong enough to stand against ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his underlings, who have pledged to come back with a vengeance.

Gossip has been spreading in the army barracks lately that the army chief will become prime minister. A fortune-teller who Gen Sonthi respects highly has made the prediction, based on his duang or astrological chart.

Gossip also has it that Gen Sonthi has to "rescue the nation twice".

The first mission is now history, i.e. the coup of Sept 19. The second is believed to be his acceptance of the premiership when the country is in a political crisis - which, one might say, could be any time soon.

The person who seems to know best about Gen Sonthi's duang and destiny is his wife Piyada, better known as "Aunty La". Like Khunying Potjaman, the deposed PM's wife, Mrs Piyada is a keen patron of fortune-tellers.

She is said to secretly take part in superstitious activities for a change of luck for Gen Sonthi and the CNS. She is said to be a regular client of Varin Buaviratlert, alias the "CNS' fortune-teller".

Mrs Piyada is said to believe in the prediction about Gen Sonthi's rise to the premiership, as it has been predicted of her that she will become the wife of a prime minister.

When asked about this, she shyly rejected the rumour. Then she laughed softly. When it came to the prediction about Gen Sonthi's future, she replied with a smile: "[He] wouldn't take the job. He is so tied up with work."

So while the mystery over the general's fortunes leaves many keen to know more, some might say the whole episode reminds them of the prelude to Black May 1992

.

Things are hotting then?

[Plus]

They MUST tighten up screws ahead of May 30th ruling, it's easier to prevent social confrontation that deal with it on the streets.

Does anyone see TRT led rallies agaisnt the court ruling as a stabilising force?

[Jai Dee]

NLA Chairman says constructive political comments should be noted

The Chairman of the National Legislative Assembly (NLA), Mr. Meechai Ruchupan, says political criticisms should be taken into consideration so improvements can be made. At the same time, unconstructive comments should be omitted.

Mr. Meechai comments on various sides pressuring Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont to step down, saying it is usual and understandable for public members to criticize people who are working in the political arena. However, he says that when Thai people feel satisfactory, they prefer to stay subdued, but they will step up and voice their dissatisfaction once they are discontented.

When asked whether the Prime Minister should improve his performance, the NLA Chairman says it is up to Gen. Surayud’s objectives. He says if his objectives still need a lot of works, then he may need to speed up his performance. However, if his objectives have been met, then he could work on new issues.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 17 May 2007

[Jai Dee]

Saturday People’s Group suggests CNS not to defend too much of Gen.Prem

The Saturday People’s Group submits a letter to Chairman of the Council for National Security (CNS) Gen.Sonthi Boonyaratglin, calling for him to stop defending Chairman of the Privy Council and Statesman, Gen.Prem Tinnasulanont.

About 50 representatives of the Saturday People’s Group who submitted the letter claim that there is no need for CNS to protect and speak on behalf of Gen Prem, as the group believes that Gen Prem is behind the September 19th coup. The group says the coup has caused many problems to the country and calls for CNS to stand by the people.

In addition, the group wants CNS to return democracy to the country as soon as possible and requests Gen.Prem to quit the posts of Chairman of the Privy Council and Statesman.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 17 May 2007

[SiamSquare123]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/15...es_30034275.php

[Jai Dee]

Gen. Prem asks public to stop political movements

The Privy Council Chairman and Statesman, Gen. Prem Tinsulanonda, asks people to stop making political movements because they can cause conflicts in the society.

After presiding over the closing ceremony of the 6th Heart-to-Heart to the South project yesterday (May 17), Gen. Prem says Thai citizens should sacrifice for the good of the country. He says arguing and blaming one another will not bring peace to the nation, and therefore, he asks all groups and organizations to work together in holding the next general election as soon as possible.

Gen. Prem insists that the rumours about the conflicts between Council for National Security Chairman Sonthi Boonyaratglin and Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont are groundless.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 18 May 2007

[Jai Dee]

Defense Ministry guards against explosives

The Minister of Defense has instructed all agencies to lay down tight security measures against explosives.

Minister of Defense Gen Boonroth Somatas (บุญรอด สมทัศน์) reported on security precautions made by relevant agencies against explosives, in order to ensure that Thailand's political situation is not further agitated during these times of political reform. Gen Boonroth revealed that all ministries are conducting discussions with the Council for National Security in order to develop security measures that are adequate to ensuring the safety of the public, with particular emphasis placed on the southern region.

The Minister of Defense said rumors alleging recent bombing incidents are attempts by certain elements seeking to pressure the Prime Minister to resign would be investigated.

Gen Boonroth added that Prime Minister Gen Surayud Chulanont had good intentions and was genuinely concerned for the welfare of the nation's democratic institution, constitution, and future elected government.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 18 May 2007

[Jai Dee]

PM affirms the nation will withstand political crisis

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont affirms that he will use all his power to carry the nation through its times of crisis.

Gen. Surayud has emphasized self-sufficiency and morality as Thailand's solution to its political crisis. The Prime Minister admits that the national economy, and indeed the world's economy, is in recession due to the depreciation of the dollar currency. The Bank of Thailand has been charged with supervising the baht's value to ensure gradual changes.

Gen. Surayud says wavering confidence by foreign investors due to Thailand's political instability will be solved once the government holds democratic elections. The Prime Minister affirms that he will work hard to ensure that the nation safety weather its crisis. He asked that the public extend their cooperation in the matter.

The Prime Minister says Thailand must promote Buddhism in order to send a message to other nations that Thai people advocate a peaceful approach to solving problems.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 18 May 2007

[Jai Dee]

PM views the holding of election depends on political condition

The Prime Minister, Gen. Surayud Chulanont, indicates that it would be better for the general election to be held sooner than the end of this December as scheduled. However, he says it would depend on the political situation.

Gen. Surayud speaks about the appropriate time for the general election to be held, saying it must comply with the political condition. As for the current political movements, the Prime Minister says the nation does not belong to one particular group of people but it belongs to the 65 million Thai citizens, and if they all are collaborating for the best of the country, then all will go well.

The Prime Minister comments on the Saturday People’s Group that although the majority is the top priority but he welcomes the voices of minority groups as well. He considers that they are grown-ups and have their own judgments.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 18 May 2007

[sonnyJ]

This all is starting to sound as preference for a one party system?

[Losangels]

Contingency plan, a second coup? I hope not

[SiamSquare123]

thaskin is buying a football club now? jeez, the political situation is really looking uncertain in thailand, isnt it? they havent convicted thaskin or really done much harm to him. they have sacked all of his boys. those in power now know that if he gets back into control, they are screwed. thaskin still has huge support in parts of the country and alot of push. Where does that leave us?

my best guess is that there will be a coup every three years. i dont see how they can go back to free elections when such a large percentage of the population supports TRT.

[Tony Clifton]

i dont see how they can go back to free elections when such a large percentage of the population supports TRT.

Relying on the supposed year old number of 16 million voters TRT still claim to have?

[SiamSquare123]

i dont see how they can go back to free elections when such a large percentage of the population supports TRT.

Relying on the supposed year old number of 16 million voters TRT still claim to have?

all i know is that the people who supported thaskin are likely to vote for someone who the guys in power now dont like. i also get the feeling the guys in power dont want that to happen.

[Jai Dee]

PM believes political situation will not intensify

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont gave an interview on the new "Open Phitsanulok House" programme on government-owned television and radio yesterday (May 18) at 8 AM.

On the current political situation, the Prime Minister believes it will not escalate violence. He says the Constitutional Court will be responsible for judging the dissolution of five political parties, and people will have to accept the court’s decision. He says most Thai people are aware that a country cannot be administered without rules and regulations.

As a Thai citizen, Gen. Surayud says he would have to follow the current events and he may give comments or criticisms on various issues. However, he considers protesting or staging a rally as inappropriate since there are people who have different views. However, he believes most Thai people want to live peacefully and they consider what is good for the country, not for certain groups.

The Prime Minister says if people in the country are fighting against each other and the government could not control the situation, it would be a moral decision for him or any administration to step down. However, he says this does not mean that he is afraid that such situation will occur.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 19 May 2007

[John K]

i dont see how they can go back to free elections when such a large percentage of the population supports TRT.

Relying on the supposed year old number of 16 million voters TRT still claim to have?

all i know is that the people who supported thaskin are likely to vote for someone who the guys in power now dont like. i also get the feeling the guys in power dont want that to happen.

I think that you may (not will) find that even in Isaan support for Thaksin is fading as a result of loss of face. It does not take much of an education to see what Thaksin has been doing to the country, particularly with Shin. The fact that his children must face the brunt does not strike of high moral and family values but more like using your children as human shields.

[Rhys]

Doesn't this sound like the ploy they used in the PI.... 55555 Just bring on PM Sonthi.. Already...

[John K]

Groups rally against CNS

Demonstrations at Sanam Luang and Democracy Monument test whether pro- and anti-Thaksin groups can unite

An estimated 700 people yesterday evening marched from Bangkok's Sanam Luang to the nearby Democracy Monument on Rajdamnoen Nok Avenue to protest against the Council for National Security (CNS).

The protesters demanded the CNS return power to the people immediately - eight months after the coup was staged by the CNS.

The protesters, led by the newly formed People's United Front Against the Coup, also covered the central structure of the Democracy Monument with black cloth, making the dramatic statement that Thailand is now under military dictatorship.

The newly-formed People's United Front is composed of 22 organisations and marks a new level of struggle. It includes the pro-Thaksin Shinawatra People's Television (PTV) group, and a majority of the protesters appeared to be supporters of former prime minister Thaksin.

This has led to deep soul-searching amongst those who opposed Thaksin but who are also against the coup.

"I decided to decline the offer to be moderator of the event," said Chanakarn Phandermwong, co-coordinator of the 19 September Network Against the Coup, which is not part of the United Front.

Others who joined the United Front, such as national human-rights commissioner Jaran Dita-apichai, took the opportunity to address the crowd against the junta.

Other speakers included former Thai Rak Thai executive Veera Musikhapong. Some 150 police kept a close eye on the protest, which also marked the 15th anniversary of the May 1992 uprising. To what extent the anti-Thaksin and anti-coup protesters will work with the pro-Thaksin and anti-coup groups remains to be seen.

Kittipumi Chutasmit, director of Phu Sing Hospital in Si Sa Ket province, came to join the protest and has addressed the crowds on several occasions in the past.

"I think there's a chance that the movement may fall into the trap of success at all costs and may not be afraid of violent confrontation. When compared to the first protest led by the 19 September Network Against the Coup, it was purely against the coup and not bent toward violence.

"Now many groups have joined and though I don't know if they will succeed or not, if the victory is at the cost of more people killed like the May 1992 uprising then we gain nothing."

As for the differing stances about Thaksin amongst the anti-coup protesters, Kittipumi said: "If we stand firm on the principle of rational debate, some of those protesters must also criticise Thaksin on the grounds of his human-rights violations and conflicts of interest, but we must also admit some of the progressive achievements of Thaksin, which have enabled rural villagers to improve their lives."

Uchaen Cheang-San, an anti-Thaksin, anti-coup protester and a Thammasat University student, said the new battle no longer lay in uniting many protesters but in opposing the draft constitution during the referendum, which would be a de facto rejection of the junta.

"I think there are some anti-democratic elements within the anti-constitution or anti-coup groups, such as those calling for the inclusion of Buddhism as a national religion in the charter or those calling on Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont to take drastic action in the southern provinces.

Subhatra Bhumiprabhas,

Pravit Rojanaphruk

The Nation

[Mid]

The Prime Minister says Thailand must promote Buddhism in order to send a message to other nations that Thai people advocate a peaceful approach to solving problems.

[sriracha john]

The Prime Minister says Thailand must promote Buddhism in order to send a message to other nations that Thai people advocate a peaceful approach to solving problems.

A blood-less coup ended a blood-thirsty regime:

[John K]

Govt in move to head off violence

Authorities set to call on 700,000 supporters to block trouble, says Isoc adviser Pallop

Authorities plan to block likely attempts to incite mob violence ahead of a politically challenging time by using a 700,000-strong network of supporters, a security adviser to the junta chief said yesterday.

General Pallop Pinmanee, adviser to the director of the Internal Security Operation Command (Isoc), said the plan called for agency supporters to "approach targeted groups for a better understanding".

Network members will explain the good intentions of the government and the Council for National Security (CNS) in solving state problems, he said. CNS chairman Sonthi Boonyaratglin is Isoc director.

"The idea is to take out as many as possible prospective demonstrators. In a public rally with less than 50,000 participants, there will be no problem," Pallop said.

He was speaking at a gathering of community representatives from all 50 districts of Bangkok at City Hall.

He claimed there were attempts to incite clashes between supporters and detractors of the government and the CNS.

His comments come just more than a week ahead of historic rulings in separate electoral-fraud cases against the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai parties. The rulings will be delivered on May 30.

Pallop did not think rulings to dissolve the parties would lead to violence.

The Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties yesterday demanded decisions over their fate be made using the law and not influence.

Caretaker leader Chaturon Chaisang insisted the party would not pressure the Constitution Tribunal over its May 30 ruling.

The tribunal has been considering allegations of electoral fraud in the April 2006 poll levelled at the Thai Rak Thai, Democrat and several smaller parties. They face dissolution if found guilty.

Chaturon said his party was not asking the tribunal to apply "political science" to its decision, but the law free of influence.

"We believe the judges will not take orders, even though the Council for National Security has been exhibiting such a tendency. The party just wants the tribunal to maintain justice. Whatever the outcome, the verdict will be historic," he said.

The party remains confident it will not be dissolved.

"The largest party and the oldest party should not be dissolved. There is no need to prepare for anything," he said.

Asked about supporters seizing provincial halls if the ruling dissolves the party, Chaturon warned against the use of violence, which would lead to confrontation and arrest.

"We offer a better alternative - capturing Government House in an election. Give us the majority in the House so that we can come back and run the country and solve people's problems," he said.

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said in an article he was confident the nine tribunal judges would rule using the law and not bow to influence or pressure.

Abhisit opposed those who believed if one party was dissolved so should the other.

"This concept is strange. If the facts in the two cases are different such a verdict would conflict with the truth.

"We have pointed out attempts by Thaksin Shinawatra to put the Democrat Party in the same boat as the Thai Rak Thai when he realised his party faced dissolution," Abhisit said.

He disagreed with suggestions judges would use "political science" to settle the case rather than the law.

"This practice was used in the asset-concealment case against Thaksin in 2001. Society should learn a lesson because the crisis and problems we face now could have been avoided if we had not allowed in power a person who was not transparent about his assets or had conflicts of interest," Abhisit said.

The Democrat leader rejected suggestions of a compromise that would not see party executives banned from politics.

"This will create problems for the Democrat Party which has a strong democratic foundation.

"On the other hand, this proposal will benefit factions defecting from the Thai Rak Thai. It will become weaker. Democrats will be confused. New political groups emerging from the Thai Rak Thai will shake hands with the CNS to cling to power," Abhisit said.

Democrat Party spokesman Ong-art Klampaiboon said it was distributing a fact sheet explaining the charges against it. He hoped it would prevent confusion and political turmoil.

Copies will be sent to party members, former members of Parliament, executive board members and party branches.

He said the party would respect the tribunal's decision. There will be no demonstrations by supporters. "We are ready to abide by the verdict," he said.

Thai Rak Thai spokesman Kuthep Saikrachang concurred with Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, who said the tribunal must rule freely and not dissolve all parties if it dissolves one.

Thai Rak Thai has distributed its own fact-sheet and published it on its website in English and Thai.

It contains information submitted to the tribunal during the hearing and is titled "The legal case against the Thai Rak Thai Party: allegations and facts".

The fact sheet concludes: "Under the present challenging situation to national cooperation and peacefulness, every Thai citizen rests their hope on the integrity and justness of the Constitutional Tribunal to reach the verdict according to the evidence without succumbing to any outside interference".

Tribunal judges were yesterday urged to explain how they plan to reach a verdict to prevent political-advocacy groups from instigating protests that may lead to confrontation and bloodshed.

Campaign for Popular Democracy secretary-general Suriyasai Katasila called on the judges to ensure that they will rule without discrimination and without political interference.

Source: The Nation

[John K]

Poll: Intensified Thai political crisis looming

Thailand is re-entering a period of political crisis, Abac Poll director Noppadol Kannikar warned Sunday.

He said the interim government and the Council for National Security should urgently attend to improving the economy and address the concerns widely stated by all sectors of society.

In a rare extended analysis, the head of the respected Assumption University warned both the CNS and Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont that time is running out and that the public perceives the country as being in deep crisis.

Mr Noppadol said no positive factor was seen in the country now and the people's patience and good-will was wearing thin in regard to those in power.

The interim government was installed by the CNS after it carried out a widely welcomed coup d'etat overthrowing the elected government of then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra last September 19.

The government and the military council should urgently implement improvements in Thailand's sluggish economy, resolve their differences and carry out the work desired by people, and create a better understanding with the groups or factions that formerly supported them.

Solving the problems would require both the government and the CNS to eradicate corruption among politicians and state officials help the people to earn more money to cope with rising inflation, and improving the community environment.

His remarks were based on results of a survey conducted by ABAC among 4,525 people nationwide between May 10-19.

According to the ABAC survey, 42.9 per cent of the respondents agreed that the country's economy was deteriorating and 37.7 per cent said the economy remained as bad as before.

Over two-thirds of respondents – 67 per cent – said their income and spending were at low level. (TNA)

Edited May 20, 2007 by John K

[John K]

Anti-junta protesters hit the streets

(Agencies)

Thousands of people protested peacefully in Bangkok on Sunday against the Council for National Security, and called for early elections, organisers and the police said.

The demonstrators, who were rallying against a coup last September, gathered at Sanam Luang plaza in the early evening before peacefully marching to the Democracy Monument several kilometres across the city.

No one was arrested and there was no violence.

"The demonstration is to show that we do not agree with coup and to kick out the junta," said one of the rally's organisers, Nattawut Saikuar, who is a supporter of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

He urged the junta to hold elections as early as possible. The military-installed government has promised polls for the end of the year.

Many of the protesters denounced the government crackdown on the country's 3,000 community radio stations after ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra called three Bangkok stations last week.

Nattawut said 5,000 people joined the demonstration, but police estimated the figure at about 3,000.

The protest movement has started to create an odd coalition of allies, with some pro-democracy groups, which last year demonstrated against Thaksin, now joining forces with his allies in demonstrating against the junta.

[Plus]

Q: How can "democracy lovers" totally discredit themselves?

A: Join pro-Thaksin rally.

[Jai Dee]

RTP Chief urges all police officers to remain alert to violence on May 30th

The Royal Thai Police Chief has urged all police officers to be alert to possible protests related to the political party dissolution case.

Interim Royal Thai Police Commissioner General Pol Gen Seripisuth Themeyawes (เสรีพิศุทธ์ เตมียาเวส) has instructed officers in all areas to implement rigorous security precautions to manage public gatherings which may be connected to the Constitutional Court's May 30th political party dissolution verdict. Pol Gen Seripisuth affirmed that police officers will not become involved in politics themselves, but would enforce the law should protests occur.

The Royal Thai Police Chief added that rumors of more than 1000 hired protesters from each district of each province being drafted to demonstrate in Bangkok would be addressed by provincial governors, District Chief Officers, Provincial Police Commanders, and precinct Superintendents. Officials will attempt to create understanding among demonstrators to ensure that unrest does not occur.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 22 May 2007

[John K]

Hired protesters. No matter how you cut it sounds very Thaksin.

[Prakanong]

Hired protesters. No matter how you cut it sounds very Thaksin.

Hired protesters (and vote buying) - It was happening well before Thaksin.

Thai political history did not start with Thaksin or you rolling up in Thailand. Widening your view and historical range may be illuminating!

[Mid]

Mr Noppadol said no positive factor was seen in the country now and the people's patience and good-will was wearing thin in regard to those in power.

thankfully some can still see the forest from the trees ,

will it be enough ??

[John K]

Hired protesters. No matter how you cut it sounds very Thaksin.

Hired protesters (and vote buying) - It was happening well before Thaksin.

Thai political history did not start with Thaksin or you rolling up in Thailand. Widening your view and historical range may be illuminating!

But per the topic TRT and that is 100% Thaksin. There is another article in another thread that says the TRT will be behind it. So in this case History starts with Thaksin and the TRT. Prior to that is irrelevant for this issue. I saw no mention that the democratic party would hire people.