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Corona and the immediate future of the Thai Baht


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3 hours ago, baansgr said:

That's not even 2 years of foreign aid...why not stop that nonsense....add on the 4 billion just spent on contracts for housing asylum seekers, not to mention the 10s of billions keeping them....could easily get through this mess if got priorities right....I don't see what help yoga classes in Nepal are to the economy.

whatever you do,don,t go into politics,you talk too much sense,you wouldn't last 5 minutes.

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2 hours ago, shackleton said:

If any one is hoping  for the Pound sterling to strengthen  against the Thai Baht  ie the days of 50 plus  is going to be most  unhappy

Cant see it happening if anything  more chance of it going lower as we get closer to Brexit

once we're out the eu,the pound will rise as the eu tears itself apart before collapsing,70baht= £1.soon

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49 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

That's not true, but Thailand have quite a lot of foreign currency stashed away. Economy-wise it's maybe the worst period in modern times. 

"Quite a lot" lol....I dont think theres an appropriate Emoji for that !

 

Their Foreign Currency Reserves are simply staggering and are continuing to grow at an unprecendented rate.

Be under no illusion tourists are of little importance in the grand scheme of things. Sure they'll be happy to accept them again at some point but the economy is doing perfectly well without them

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6 hours ago, Chivas said:

"Quite a lot" lol....I dont think theres an appropriate Emoji for that !

 

Their Foreign Currency Reserves are simply staggering and are continuing to grow at an unprecendented rate.

Be under no illusion tourists are of little importance in the grand scheme of things. Sure they'll be happy to accept them again at some point but the economy is doing perfectly well without them

How is the economy doing well? They just reported the biggest recession since 22 years.

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Thailand-Q2-GDP-contracts-12.2-amid-COVID-induced-recession

 

"Gross domestic product shrank 12.2% in the second quarter compared to the same period the previous year, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council, the kingdom's economic planning agency, announced on Monday. It is the biggest contraction since 1998 when Thailand posted a 12.5% contraction recorded in the second quarter because of the Asian Financial Crisis."

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11 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

What would "lost much value" compared to EUR be for you?

 

image.png.55765993a21070eccafb0e1b7b358d94.png

1 year, from 33 to 37....

During the last big political crisis in 2014 the Baht slipped to 45 TBH to 1 Euro. We are still far away from those levels even though the situation in Thailand could soon become MUCH worse with unprecedended economical fallout + new political instability. Meanwhile the economies in the EU and the UK are already recovering and things are pretty much back to normal for now. I wouldn't bet on the USD to THB rates but my bet is that the GBP and Euro will strength considerably against the Baht. I don't see how Thailand is not headed for a major crisis. 

 

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2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

People may not like Trump but he's mostly a business man, Biden on the other hand .....

...is a basement man...

 

The fact is that countries like Thailand are in a much better position to absorb major economic shocks than the developed/socialist countries with their high maintenance populations and their extremely costly social programs.

 

While the US has been sending $ 1,500 checks and paying an extra $ 600 a week to its millions of unemployed, Thailand has only made three payments of 5,000 baht, altogether approximately $ 500.

 

Most unemployed have gone back to their villages, like the one where I live, and have somehow managed to reintegrate themselves and survive on the cheap.

 

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12 hours ago, farangkinok said:

Why blame Reagan? Nixon ended the convertibility of U.S. dollars to gold in 1971, long before Reagan was elected. 

Old Ronnie has to be one of the best most charasmatic Presidents ever..loved his speeches.

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14 hours ago, baansgr said:

That's not even 2 years of foreign aid...why not stop that nonsense....add on the 4 billion just spent on contracts for housing asylum seekers, not to mention the 10s of billions keeping them....could easily get through this mess if got priorities right....I don't see what help yoga classes in Nepal are to the economy.

Do you have any credible links to those asylum figures?

 

I had a quick look around the interweb and saw a couple of outraged

articles in the express stating that the bill to look after the asylum seekers

in the UK was around £365 million per annum, and that apparently came out

of the foreign aid kitty, as I said it was the express so accuracy and credibility

would be lacking.

 

The 30 billion for foreign aid sounds about right as we are committed to 0.7%

of the economy or GDP which was around £13.5 billion a couple of years back,

but given the current state of the economy will be rather less.

 

Couldn't see any links to how much a Nepalese yoga teacher is getting paid.

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47 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

...is a basement man...

 

The fact is that countries like Thailand are in a much better position to absorb major economic shocks than the developed/socialist countries with their high maintenance populations and their extremely costly social programs.

 

While the US has been sending $ 1,500 checks and paying an extra $ 600 a week to its millions of unemployed, Thailand has only made three payments of 5,000 baht, altogether approximately $ 500.

 

Most unemployed have gone back to their villages, like the one where I live, and have somehow managed to reintegrate themselves and survive on the cheap.

 

good,wont have lairy bar girls trying to take the proverbial with their prices when i decide to return.

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17 hours ago, rumak said:

Rumak here.   Ru Mak.    i know how the market will move.   When i buy, it goes down.  So when i buy i always SELL twice as much as when i buy.    And when i sell, it always goes up.   So i always buy twice as much as what i sold.   If you follow this simple strategy  you too can be fantastically wealthy. 

Sure wish i had rich parents that loved me like some of you guys ................

Total rubbish , 

 

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7 hours ago, DaweiBeach said:

During the last big political crisis in 2014 the Baht slipped to 45 TBH to 1 Euro. We are still far away from those levels even though the situation in Thailand could soon become MUCH worse with unprecedended economical fallout + new political instability. Meanwhile the economies in the EU and the UK are already recovering and things are pretty much back to normal for now. I wouldn't bet on the USD to THB rates but my bet is that the GBP and Euro will strength considerably against the Baht. I don't see how Thailand is not headed for a major crisis. 

 

Then again with the whole World in crisis, it could as well go to 25 THB to 1 EUR, especially if second round of lockdowns happen in Europe, and Asia is less affected. Thai economy is recovering, so are many Asian economies. The west is still in free fall...

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On 8/31/2020 at 6:08 AM, cmarshall said:

So far the baht has strengthened against USD since the outbreak of corona despite the decline of tourism and exports.  Why would that change as long as the epidemic continues?

The Baht has not strengthened against the USD, rather the USD has weakened.

 

That's why all currencies gained against the USD.

 

Of course that will change as soon as the USD makes a recovery.

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USD has been very strong in the first 3-4 months of 2020. 

Then USD has gone down significantly for the past 12 weeks ( since early June ),  and is to go further down in near future.   This decline had been predicted everywhere few months ago. 

 

On the other hand,   Thai THB  is damn difficult to predict.   ( Like that for a long time ) 

 

Important NOT just look/use  THB Vs USD for reference. 

Check out  THB  Vs  EUR,  THB Vs Pound,   THB Vs YEN,   THB  Vs AUS,   THB Vs CAD .....etc to get the whole picture.    

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According to this data, and it may be fairly accurate, there is a strong reason why the Baht will stay strong for quite a long time, with more Foreign currency reserves than any European country or even the USA. Nor will currency  speculators challenge the Baht as once happened before.

 

I spoke to an Economist at one of Thailand's leading university's recently and we both agreed that although the Thai Government would love to devalue its currency, by the stroke of a pen, it would run foul of the USA regulations and possible sanctions by being branded a currency manipulator .

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

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19 hours ago, rumak said:

YESSSSSS !     someone else in this thaivisa universe actually  understands this.

 

I was with a group of "friends" about 20 years ago,  in a house just outside of Chiangmai.  I may have been the only american , mostly europeans .  At that time the US deficit was a subject of speculation just as it should be today.    It was the common opinion of those there that the dollar was going to go to hell,  and probably be replaced as the world currency as well.  

I am no economist,  but i thought, and said,    I don't think so.   No matter how ridiculous it all seems

(the manufacture of money out of thin air)......... the US is the biggest bully in the world and i don't think they are going to lose that title,  or be punished by their "crazy debt"

Only difference now :    the debt is in the trillions instead of the billions .    and still there are the same pundits predicting the downfall of the evil empire.    I still doubt it.  

You are correct and the US limits the amount of actual currency entering into circulation. The issue is the Euro/Dollar. Not Euro's to US Dollars. There is no control on how many US$ are being fractional reserved and printed/loaned into the market. So the situation now and is different since the 2008 crisis. 

 

The US$ will die eventually like every other FIAT currency that has ever existed. The US$ will take every other world currency with it when it goes and it will be the last man standing for sure. That is the point that the US$ as the worlds reserve currency will end and we will go onto some other system either gold, crypto or something yet to be created.  

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The US$ is dropping in strength. Some believe it will continue down to nothing and some believe it will spike first and then drop down. I am on the side of the spike but going by my trading crystal ball yesterday i am seriously doubting myself. 

 

Bottom line is the USD is getting weaker across all currencies not just the THB.

 

 

Screenshot (37).png

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2 hours ago, Mazzza33 said:
19 hours ago, rumak said:

Rumak here.   Ru Mak.    i know how the market will move.   When i buy, it goes down.  So when i buy i always SELL twice as much as when i buy.    And when i sell, it always goes up.   So i always buy twice as much as what i sold.   If you follow this simple strategy  you too can be fantastically wealthy. 

Sure wish i had rich parents that loved me like some of you guys ................

Total rubbish , 

hahah    good first post.     read my other hundreds of posts , you might find some of them rubbish as well.     also if you have time look up    humor, tongue in cheek,  and sarcasm

Of course then you will need some ability to distinguish between those mediums.

 

tough assignment .    welcome to thaivisa

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On 9/1/2020 at 10:22 AM, 50cruff said:

According to this data, and it may be fairly accurate, there is a strong reason why the Baht will stay strong for quite a long time, with more Foreign currency reserves than any European country or even the USA. Nor will currency  speculators challenge the Baht as once happened before.

 

I spoke to an Economist at one of Thailand's leading university's recently and we both agreed that although the Thai Government would love to devalue its currency, by the stroke of a pen, it would run foul of the USA regulations and possible sanctions by being branded a currency manipulator .

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/us-treasury-mulls-putting-thailand-on-its-watchlist-as-a-currency-manipulator

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