About 6 months.

Why are so many people hell-bent on the idea of vaccine saving the world? It's month's away, then it'll take more months to manufacture and distribute 7 billion doses. Plus it will not be 100% effective, then as soon as the virus mutates, it could well become completely useless altogether, back to square one. Not to mention the side effects from the preservatives etc and the massive cost. 

26 minutes ago, steven100 said:

Why ???   Thailand will bounce back .... as soon as a vaccine is found and quarantine's removed.

What part of that don't you understand  ?

LOL. IF a vaccine is developed and proven safe, how long before it's available to all?

Lets say it's available in a year to most, how are western economies going to look by then after multiple lockdowns? Who is going to have the disposable cash to fly an expensive plane anyway?

The bounce will come, but it ain't going to be any time soon, IMO. By then the whole farang tourism thing may have vanished under a horde of Chinese arriving by train. Only a billion + of them to visit LOS.

Thailand isn't going to disappear into thin air without international tourism. But there are going to be a lot of bankrupt companies, people made homeless, suicide and depression will sky-rocket and there will be exponentially more households around the country struggling to put food on the table. People won't be able to pay their bills, service their loans, and bargirls won't be able to get the latest smartphone. Petty crime will increase, which we are seeing already.

 

The elites will be immune, of course, and will survive just fine. They will no doubt get richer, creating an even-greater disparity between the rich and poor. 

Edited September 5, 20205 yr by SteveK

53 minutes ago, SteveK said:

Thailand isn't going to disappear into thin air without international tourism. But there are going to be a lot of bankrupt companies, people made homeless, suicide and depression will sky-rocket and there will be exponentially more households around the country struggling to put food on the table. People won't be able to pay their bills, service their loans, and bargirls won't be able to get the latest smartphone. Petty crime will increase, which we are seeing already.

 

The elites will be immune, of course, and will survive just fine. They will no doubt get richer, creating an even-greater disparity between the rich and poor. 

Spot on 

To answer the question directly; forever. It may be important to many Thais, it may be desirable, it may be a big chunk of GDP ( actually less than 18%) but its not essential for the future, long term economic health of Thailand.  The government knows this, which is why they are not rushing themselves to open the borders.  

Its not a question of how long can Thailand survive its how long can the Government survive, after expenditure of fifty per cent of GDP you start to alarm financial institutions, you get a triple D rating , to put it bluntly, in a pandemic or a war the country comes first, not the citizens, so those who are missing out tighten your belts .

3 hours ago, SteveK said:

Why are so many people hell-bent on the idea of vaccine saving the world? It's month's away, then it'll take more months to manufacture and distribute 7 billion doses.

Make that 6,999,999,999 doses, since I won't need one... unless you want mine too, as a precaution... 

10 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Make that 6,999,999,999 doses, since I won't need one... unless you want mine too, as a precaution... 

count me out as well ..... so only 6,999,999,998  needed

12 minutes ago, steven100 said:

count me out as well ..... so only 6,999,999,998  needed

Wait, you have been proudly throwing around that the only way Thailand will recover and the quarantines ending will be when a vaccine is found so that your beloved Leader Prayut can lead his country forward to greatness.  Yet you wont partake in the vaccination, well that reeks of a double standard and a lack of trust you have in your best friend Prayut.  But then who I am I to doubt your credibility as his spokesperson and greatest Fan.

So it's already been discussed a vaccine will be around 50-60% effective.

Ones own immune system is above 85%

 

Present stats are edging to flu mortality numbers.

 

Lets see how a person with preexisting goes with the vaccine then I'll make my decision.

 

Until then no thanks.

 

 

I have no doubt that Thailand will survive.

What will be killed off, if they are not already, are opportunities.

Opportunity to prosper, to trade, to have a business. Many of those working in the tourist businesses did not make large amounts of money, but they had the opportunity to break out of the cycle of rural subsistence farming with it's attendant poverty. This has gone, so yes, they may survive, but having seen "the grass on the other side" they will not accept their lot as readily as perhaps, the previous generations have. 

 

The very high level of unemployment will also depress wages, this will further add to their woes.

 

If/when these woes begin to be voiced then there may be real problems for the status quo in Thailand.

22 hours ago, JusticeGB said:

The daft current schemes on offer to open the tourism industry won't encourage many people to come unless they are coming for at least 3 months. Not that many people can take that much time to go on holiday. Another article in today's Thaivisa shows that only 15% of regular Swedish tourists will take an overseas holiday in 2022. If that is typical of other countries then Thailand's economy will take a very big hit and many hotels and tourist related businesses will close down some forever. 

My son is of similar mind. 2022 will be the year for more tourists.  His reckoning is it will take most people well into 2021 to gET their finances in order...that's if things settle down.  I agree. But the numbers will be in the few millions.  To get back to 40 million a year may not happen till 2030.  Interesting times.  Maybe a World War would have been less of a bother!  ????

2 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

Maybe a World War would have been less of a bother!  ????

We may well get one...later...

 

Pandemic + economic collapse + war = the perfect grand slam.

 

The last one was in the 1910-20s, but in a different order...

On 9/4/2020 at 7:36 AM, benn dere said:

Tourism is what 12% of GDP or thereabouts? I may be inclined to be more concerned of the economic impact from the slowdowns to the massive foreign investment in the manufacturing sector in Thailand. 12% is significant indeed though, hopefully industry can flourish and maintain a healthy economy chugging and tourism numbers can begin to return to normal levels.

Covid (and other mitigating factors) drove a big nail in Thai Airway's coffin, other major industries to follow?

While a 12% drop in GDP might not be fatal nationally, what proprtion of the jobs does that 12% support? I was reading a tourist association spokesman who said that Thailand has already lost 4 million tourist related jobs.  Surely a lot of such people are reaching the end of the savings they've been relying on, and soon face hardship.  Additionally, their spending formerly supported jobs in many other industries (cars, motorbikes, clothes, luxury items [insert any item]. That's all gone.

On 9/3/2020 at 8:00 PM, allane said:

Posts like this are a laugh. Thailand survived for centuries, and will do so again. The last thing it needs is planeloads of foreigners arriving here from these Covid infested banana republics, which are unable to control the virus.

There's also no reason to hit the PANIC COVID alarm when they discover 1 - 10 covid positive people on rare occasions...

On 9/4/2020 at 4:00 AM, allane said:

Posts like this are a laugh. Thailand survived for centuries, and will do so again. The last thing it needs is planeloads of foreigners arriving here from these Covid infested banana republics, which are unable to control the virus.

Congrats on dumbest post of the week. Unless you blindly suck up the bs like some switched off folk, the virus is there and thriving. It is not in control anywhere. 

Banana republics = not testing / hiding actual figures. 

Weird that we don't hear much about the "Sufficiency Economy" anymore?

 

 

In Phuket town yesterday one restaurant we always go to I've never seen it as busy not one farang except me 

It's the west coast of Phuket is suffering everyday I see more units closed down For Sale or For Rent people are running out of money

Edited September 6, 20205 yr by ChipButty

I hope Corona ends soon and I travel to Thailand again. On my last trip to Thailand in a beauty salon a beautiful lady did a beautiful hair weave for me. I was going to go there in Thailand this year, but I couldn't because of Corona, but here in Canada I was able to do the same hair weave in a safe salon https://www.beautster.com/business/mma-calgary/ I'm so happy for this ☺️

On 9/5/2020 at 1:10 PM, SteveK said:

Thailand isn't going to disappear into thin air without international tourism. But there are going to be a lot of bankrupt companies, people made homeless, suicide and depression will sky-rocket and there will be exponentially more households around the country struggling to put food on the table. People won't be able to pay their bills, service their loans, and bargirls won't be able to get the latest smartphone. Petty crime will increase, which we are seeing already.

 

The elites will be immune, of course, and will survive just fine. They will no doubt get richer, creating an even-greater disparity between the rich and poor. 

Delete "Thailand" and "bargirls" and that applies to almost any country that is locked down. Sweden rocks.

On 9/6/2020 at 9:41 AM, daveAustin said:

Congrats on dumbest post of the week. Unless you blindly suck up the bs like some switched off folk, the virus is there and thriving. It is not in control anywhere. 

Banana republics = not testing / hiding actual figures. 

His post seems pretty valid to me.

On 9/5/2020 at 11:30 PM, Globaleyes said:

While a 12% drop in GDP might not be fatal nationally, what proprtion of the jobs does that 12% support? I was reading a tourist association spokesman who said that Thailand has already lost 4 million tourist related jobs.  Surely a lot of such people are reaching the end of the savings they've been relying on, and soon face hardship.  Additionally, their spending formerly supported jobs in many other industries (cars, motorbikes, clothes, luxury items [insert any item]. That's all gone.

Tourism is % low but employment high. As you correctly point out, their spending supports many non tourist companies.

The answer lies in domestic tourism, but that depends on tourist companies lowering prices.

On 9/5/2020 at 6:46 AM, ChakaKhan said:

Does this mean no more "short time"????  short short short time...aka a quickie!  20 baht!

Somewhat ironic that BGs that thought they were special, are finding out that they ain't nearly as special as they thought they were. They must be finding it hard to realise that lying on one's back and thinking of the money isn't a skill in much demand any more.

11 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Somewhat ironic that BGs that thought they were special, are finding out that they ain't nearly as special as they thought they were. They must be finding it hard to realise that lying on one's back and thinking of the money isn't a skill in much demand any more.

Some of the bars have setup YouTube channels and encourage mugs customers viewers to buy them lady drinks via PayPal or Superchat for virtual entertainment of them dancing in a beer bar. Not sure how long this can carry on for without being let into the country. 

 

Yes not much skill in a being a bar girl and the demand is now massive over supply.

Tourism was 5.65% of Thailand's GDP in Q1 of 2020. It's the 9th largest jobs sector in 2019. As reported.

 

That said... When the US depression hits, it will hit the world. Thailand will be hit very hard unfortunately, IMHO. 

8 minutes ago, ding said:

Tourism was 5.65% of Thailand's GDP in Q1 of 2020. It's the 9th largest jobs sector in 2019. As reported.

 

That said... When the US depression hits, it will hit the world. Thailand will be hit very hard unfortunately, IMHO. 

I read overall it was 21.6% of GDP in 2018, inc domestic tourism, that's a big hit!

A post using content that was copy and pasted from another site with no supporting link has been removed.

 

Some off topic posts and replies have been removed. 

Without foreign tourists, businesses need to adjust and living standard for many Thai will come down.  No easy money so to speak.

 

I think Thailand will be fine as long as people can accept income and living standard coming down like 10 to 20% and make adjustments accordingly.

 

 

On 9/6/2020 at 7:32 AM, ChipButty said:

In Phuket town yesterday one restaurant we always go to I've never seen it as busy not one farang except me 

It's the west coast of Phuket is suffering everyday I see more units closed down For Sale or For Rent people are running out of money

Friday to Sunday there were many Thai tourists in town, therefore your impression maybe somewhat distorted. I observed it myself over the weekend, some places which recently only had 5-6 customers in the evening, were quite full. The owner of one of my regular places told me, she hadn't seen so many customers since March, and that's one of the top restaurants high up on the Tripadvisor list. Usually they don't even break even. Yesterday's Walking Street Market attracted many Thais, more than I've seen in months, and many restaurants in the vicinity would have profited from it; but today and tomorrow things will be back to dreary normal.