The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[Mid]

There is no big crisis and certainly no boom. What we have is a gradually eroding economy that will probably have lower growth rates in the future for many reasons. Certainly no boom on the horizon.

I'm willing to humbly put in about $1000 bet that Thailand's GDP growth for next year will be better than this year. Are you game?

your finally writing off '07 then .

[ThaiGoon]

So what does this mean?

will probably have lower growth rates in the future for many reasons.

Is 4.1 lower than 4.0 in your country? I'm a bit confused.

Anyway, I'm even willing to wager that next year's growth will be at least better than this year's by 0.5. So are you game?

[chinthee]

So what does this mean?

will probably have lower growth rates in the future for many reasons.

Is 4.1 lower than 4.0 in your country? I'm a bit confused.

Anyway, I'm even willing to wager that next year's growth will be at least better than this year's by 0.5. So are you game?

I meant lower than past years generally each year, in the 4% range. And as Mid believes, beating this year's by 0.5 may be very easy depending on how things go.

[ThaiGoon]

your finally writing off '07 then .

I'm not writing it off. That's a completely different issue that's already been discussed at length in this thread.

[Mid]

as you please , though I'm at a loss to see how it's a completely different issue when it's the basis of your proposed wager .

[chinthee]

How can I put this delicately for Thaigoon. Thailand's GDP growth is smaller than any other important Asian nation, true? And, there are no fundamental indicators that it will significantly improve, true or not?

[ThaiGoon]

as you please , though I'm at a loss to see how it's a completely different issue when it's the basis of your proposed wager .

One is about whether the current situation is "in crisis", the other one is whether it will be even worse next year.

Is it a bit clearer now?

Chinthee, I think we've already seen that you are backing off from this original statement, " will probably have lower growth rates in the future" and are not willing to back it up. As for other points, try to read what I previously posted in this thread. It's already been discussed. I can't be arsed to do it again.

Edited July 1, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[ThaiGoon]

I guess some people just love to spout BS that even they themselves are too chicken to back it up.

[Mid]

I guess some people just love to spout BS that even they themselves are too chicken to back it up.

pot , kettle

[ThaiGoon]

I guess some people just love to spout BS that even they themselves are too chicken to back it up.

pot , kettle

What were the stuff I said that I was not willing to stand by? Please tell (i.e. back it up.) Don't be chicken by just posting "pot, kettle."

Edited July 1, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[chinthee]

I guess some people just love to spout BS that even they themselves are too chicken to back it up.

pot , kettle

Oh, and by the way, for curiosity, I just checked EVERY Asian nation, and it looks like except for Burma (obvious) and 1st world economies like Japan, or oil-rich Brunei, Thailand's GDP growth rate IS lower than everyone else, including Cambodia and laos. Always glad for someone to correct this BS I'm spouting tho...

[ThaiGoon]

Oh, and by the way, for curiosity, I just checked EVERY Asian nation, and it looks like except for Burma (obvious) and 1st world economies like Japan, or oil-rich Brunei, Thailand's GDP growth rate IS lower than everyone else, including Cambodia and laos. Always glad for someone to correct this BS I'm spouting tho...

Chinthee, in my humble opinion, this thread is about whether the Thai economy is in crisis. It's not about if Thailand is growing slower than other countries. And from my limited understanding on economics, a slower growth is not a crisis. If your great understanding on this subject indicates otherwise, please do tell. I'm willing to listen. Also, as it's been pointed out already many times in this thread that the main reason for the current slowdown is the political uncertainty (which has resulted in lower consumer and private investor confidences.) And that doesn't in anyway equal to a longterm economic crisis.

Anyway, still not willing to wager $1000 that next year's Thailand GDP growth will at least be better than this year's by 0.5%? Still a bit too chicken?

Edited July 1, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[Mid]

sad state of affairs when the only rebuttal is whether the word crisis is applicable ...................

[ThaiGoon]

sad state of affairs when the only rebuttal is whether the word crisis is applicable ...................

So what's your argument then? And what is this thread all about? Please tell.

[Mid]

Gov't urged to stimulate investment for economic survival

here's the cliff notes ,

as democracy declines so does the economy .

[ThaiGoon]

Gov't urged to stimulate investment for economic survival

here's the cliff notes ,

as democracy declines so does the economy .

Didn't answer my question about "pot, kettle" remark. Then couldn't answer what this thread is all about. Now this (even though the general election will definitely take place soon.)

Edited July 1, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[Mid]

even if the general election will definitely take place soon

oh

[ThaiGoon]

even if the general election will definitely take place soon

oh

Edited to "even though." Sorry I just got off the phone with my Thai friend. So my English is a bit sluggish and rusty.

Still no answers about "Pot, kettle" remark and the topic of this thread.

Edited July 1, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[Mid]

yes definitely is such a definitive word ......................

do look at Post #827 at your leisure , and have a nice day .

[ThaiGoon]

yes definitely is such a definitive word ......................

do look at Post #827 at your leisure , and have a nice day .

So the general election could take place in Janurary instead of December or it could be 60 days later at most!! Ooooh....what a disaster!!!

And still no answers about "Pot, kettle" remark and the topic of this thread. :D

Edited July 1, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[Mid]

So the general election could take place in Janurary instead of December or it could be 60 days later at most!! Ooooh....what a disaster!!!

this is the only part of your post worth commenting on ..........

here's the comment ,

given that the early return to democracy is the theme that all the 1/2 full guys base their predictions on .................

[ThaiGoon]

So the general election could take place in Janurary instead of December or it could be 60 days later at most!! Ooooh....what a disaster!!!

this is the only part of your post worth commenting on ..........

here's the comment ,

given that the early return to democracy is the theme that all the 1/2 full guys base their predictions on .................

Could you please elaborate on how a possibility of a 60-day delay in general election would prove catastrohpic to Thai economy and that the economy would not pick up next year? Please? Please.

Still no answers about "Pot, kettle" remark and the topic of this thread??!!

[Mid]

Could you please elaborate on how a possibility of a 60-day delay in general election would prove catastrohpic to Thai economy and that the economy would not pick up next year? Please? Please.

obviously not to you ..........................

[ThaiGoon]

Could you please elaborate on how a possibility of a 60-day delay in general election would prove catastrohpic to Thai economy and that the economy would not pick up next year? Please? Please.

obviously not to you ..........................

Yeah, not to me. So please elaborate on it please. Please. Please. Please. ()

Or you just can't?

[highdiver]

Thai Goon.

good to have you back.

i loved the idea of the bet on GDP. when its time to put your money where your mouth is... it seems all the "chickens" have left the room.

[ThaiGoon]

Thai Goon.

good to have you back.

i loved the idea of the bet on GDP. when its time to put your money where your mouth is... it seems all the "chickens" have left the room.

Cheers krab khun Highdiver.

[Mid]

just poke this one a bit more to see if there's any life left in it will we .....................

State-related banker concerned at possible weak government

Sunday 1 July 2007 02:07:37 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, July 1 (TNA) - A senior banker has expressed concern that the Thai economy may weaken if the new government formed after the coming general election is not strong and demonstrations continue unabated.

Krung Thai Bank President Apisak Tantivorawong said in a recent seminar the Thai economy should improve during the fourth quarter this year in part by anticipated heavy spending in the general election, due to be held late this year, investment by state-enterprises, government spending on its budget and a cut in local interest rates.

MCOT Public Company Limited

[A_Traveller]

I recall that a previous report from Jetro was highlighted for its positivity, just wonder if the same posters will use it as a reference again next week, or will it suddenly be insignificant.

Regards

Japanese more wary

INVESTMENT :Thailand's attractiveness as a foreign investment destination has declined among Japanese investors, according to the latest survey by the Japan External Trade Organisation (Jetro).

The survey, which will be released next week, cites Thailand's social and political instability, a growing shortage of skilled workers, weak management, the rising cost of raw materials and the strong baht as negative factors among Japanese investors.

Commerce Ministry spokesman Krisda Piampongsant said Jetro president Yoichi Kato met yesterday with Commerce Minister Krirk-krai Jirapaet to discuss the survey results and growing concerns among Japanese investors over the country's weakening competitiveness.

Mr Krisda quoted Mr Kato as saying that the negative factors could result in more funds increasingly going to other countries such as Vietnam.

Bangkok Post

/edit format//

Edited July 1, 2007 by A_Traveller

[chinthee]

I recall that a previous report from Jetro was highlighted for its positivity, just wonder if the same posters will use it as a reference again next week, or will it suddenly be insignificant.

Regards

Japanese more wary

INVESTMENT :Thailand's attractiveness as a foreign investment destination has declined among Japanese investors, according to the latest survey by the Japan External Trade Organisation (Jetro).

The survey, which will be released next week, cites Thailand's social and political instability, a growing shortage of skilled workers, weak management, the rising cost of raw materials and the strong baht as negative factors among Japanese investors.

Commerce Ministry spokesman Krisda Piampongsant said Jetro president Yoichi Kato met yesterday with Commerce Minister Krirk-krai Jirapaet to discuss the survey results and growing concerns among Japanese investors over the country's weakening competitiveness.

Mr Krisda quoted Mr Kato as saying that the negative factors could result in more funds increasingly going to other countries such as Vietnam.

Bangkok Post

/edit format//

Hence my view that the downturn will lead to continued low levels of GDP growth for some years to come. This is systemic, for all the reasons cited and more that I've detailed in prior posts, and won't be patched up by slapping a fresh coat of paint on this japlopy in the form of a new constitution and elections, no matter how much delayed or how democratic or not.

We can argue all day about short term blips, but it saddens me to think this country, my home, will continue to be ignored by the world financial community and be left to drift asea rudderless, as all speedboats lead to China, India and Vietnam. Mixed metaphors or not.

[JR Texas]

I recall that a previous report from Jetro was highlighted for its positivity, just wonder if the same posters will use it as a reference again next week, or will it suddenly be insignificant.

Regards

Japanese more wary

INVESTMENT :Thailand's attractiveness as a foreign investment destination has declined among Japanese investors, according to the latest survey by the Japan External Trade Organisation (Jetro).

The survey, which will be released next week, cites Thailand's social and political instability, a growing shortage of skilled workers, weak management, the rising cost of raw materials and the strong baht as negative factors among Japanese investors.

Commerce Ministry spokesman Krisda Piampongsant said Jetro president Yoichi Kato met yesterday with Commerce Minister Krirk-krai Jirapaet to discuss the survey results and growing concerns among Japanese investors over the country's weakening competitiveness.

Mr Krisda quoted Mr Kato as saying that the negative factors could result in more funds increasingly going to other countries such as Vietnam.

Bangkok Post

/edit format//

Hence my view that the downturn will lead to continued low levels of GDP growth for some years to come. This is systemic, for all the reasons cited and more that I've detailed in prior posts, and won't be patched up by slapping a fresh coat of paint on this japlopy in the form of a new constitution and elections, no matter how much delayed or how democratic or not.

We can argue all day about short term blips, but it saddens me to think this country, my home, will continue to be ignored by the world financial community and be left to drift asea rudderless, as all speedboats lead to China, India and Vietnam. Mixed metaphors or not.

JR Texas: Agree with you Chintee.......it is sad, and thank you, a Thai, for acknowledge that something is seriously wrong. Thailand does know democracy......it has rejected free enterprise......it is, with its visa and business rules, sending xenophobic messages to a large segment of the farang community (basically, we do not want you here)......it is putting the brakes on small scale investment by foreign entrepreneurs........it is mired in a totally corrupt banking system.......its education institutions are corrupt to the core (I know, I am a professor in one of them)......it has turned away from freedom of speech and is taking action against freedom of assembly......it has done virtually nothing to address the economic needs of the vast majority that do not live in the narrow strip from Bangkok to Rayong. No election can save it as it will not be a genuine election.......and any such election will simply put the same corrupt members of the corporate-political-military triangle of power in office. I see hard times ahead........maybe a short recovery.......but the negative forces are simply too strong. It is reality check time.