The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[bingobongo]

some folks deal better in pictures than in words, so for those, i present you this.....

Edited August 20, 2007 by bingobongo

[Supaporn]

some folks deal better in pictures than in words, so for those, i present you this.....

Alas, for those who profess to read and understand words and try to prop up and spread their puny opinions with twisted data - yet only look at the pictures - even this won't sink in.

[VegasVic]

some folks deal better in pictures than in words, so for those, i present you this.....

Nice comic Bingo I always look forward to you and Mid bringing a bit of levity to the situation and you guys usually come through For any of you out there who would put any stock (OK sorry for the pun) into this cartoon, then I would suggest that you put all your money into gold and bury it in your backyard

[chownah]

some folks deal better in pictures than in words, so for those, i present you this.....

Oh My Oh My....the wind is blowing isn't it! They all fall down!!!

[highdiver]

so you dont worry to much about the state of the company.

KT/RR/WJ 07 - 181 August 20, 07

To Director and Manager

The Stock Exchange of Thailand

Joint Venture with Kubota Corporation

The Siam Cement Public Company Limited (or SCC) hereby announces that it

reached a joint venture agreement with Kubota Corporation (of Japan) on

August 20, 2007 to manufacture agricultural tractors in Thailand. This joint

venture will have a registered capital of 1,100 MB, and SCC will hold a 40%

stake while Kubota Corporation will hold the remaining 60% stake

Cement and agricultural tractors....

I fail to see the connection, but who am I ?

LaoPo

4 -5 weeks ago on a post about The Siam Cement Public Company Limited . it was reported by our "dooms day brigade"

that they are going to loosing money due to production/sales decrease lately because of declined demand.....

it was then sugested that the lack of demand is resulting from a all down of the construction sector. and a multi post speculation about how the cement industry is loosing money........

so the facts are if you follow all the posts :

Siam Cement Group is doing very well....

Siam Cement Public Company Limited has made gains in the first half year.

Siam Cement Public Company Limited is not only trading cements but in trading of construction products as well as other machinery as well.

and now they even have a joint venture with a large japaneese company.

[highdiver]

some folks deal better in pictures than in words, so for those, i present you this.....

Nice comic Bingo I always look forward to you and Mid bringing a bit of levity to the situation and you guys usually come through For any of you out there who would put any stock (OK sorry for the pun) into this cartoon, then I would suggest that you put all your money into gold and bury it in your backyard

buy gold ????

no he did something smarter..... he sold his condo in 2006 and tucked his money away in a "safe western"country...

and then prices of condos went up, the baht got stronger, and the SET rose from 600 to nearly 800....

[ray23]

So what you think Siam Cement Public Company Limited, looking pretty safe these days? Maybe a bit of room for some growth and profits? You know it would be nice to see a little more on specific companies that look good for growth. One thing for sure they are all not looking nor are they all looking bad. You guys seem to be very knowledgeable on both sides of the fence, so why not use ti for something besides arguing, just a thought

[Mid]

Thailand to achieve 4% GDP growth

(BangkokPost.com) – Things are looking up for Thailand’s economy now that the draft charter has passed a national referendum even if it is by a small margin, according to Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras.

He is confident that people will be more willing to come out and spend more which will result in the country achieving its GDP growth target of 4 percent by year’s end.

snip

The Post Publishing Public Co., Ltd.

[LaoPo]

so you dont worry to much about the state of the company.

KT/RR/WJ 07 - 181 August 20, 07

To Director and Manager

The Stock Exchange of Thailand

Joint Venture with Kubota Corporation

The Siam Cement Public Company Limited (or SCC) hereby announces that it

reached a joint venture agreement with Kubota Corporation (of Japan) on

August 20, 2007 to manufacture agricultural tractors in Thailand. This joint

venture will have a registered capital of 1,100 MB, and SCC will hold a 40%

stake while Kubota Corporation will hold the remaining 60% stake

Cement and agricultural tractors....

I fail to see the connection, but who am I ?

LaoPo

4 -5 weeks ago on a post about The Siam Cement Public Company Limited . it was reported by our "dooms day brigade"

that they are going to loosing money due to production/sales decrease lately because of declined demand.....

it was then sugested that the lack of demand is resulting from a all down of the construction sector. and a multi post speculation about how the cement industry is loosing money........

so the facts are if you follow all the posts :

Siam Cement Group is doing very well....

Siam Cement Public Company Limited has made gains in the first half year.

Siam Cement Public Company Limited is not only trading cements but in trading of construction products as well as other machinery as well.

and now they even have a joint venture with a large japaneese company.

It's good to hear they're doing so well.

Two things spring to mind.

1. Diversification of large companies; I've seen in it the west but in the end it's not always working

2. HOW ON EARTH is it possible that a foreign (Japanese) company can hold 60% versus 40% for SCC ?

LaoPo

[midas]

Can any SEt guru's shed some light as to why it has

fallen so heavily today ( 23.25 as at no 4.26 pm ) ?

It has virtually given back all the gains from yesterday

when I thought everyone felt LOS was heading on the

right road again after the refererendum result ?

[highdiver]

so you dont worry to much about the state of the company.

KT/RR/WJ 07 - 181 August 20, 07

To Director and Manager

The Stock Exchange of Thailand

Joint Venture with Kubota Corporation

The Siam Cement Public Company Limited (or SCC) hereby announces that it

reached a joint venture agreement with Kubota Corporation (of Japan) on

August 20, 2007 to manufacture agricultural tractors in Thailand. This joint

venture will have a registered capital of 1,100 MB, and SCC will hold a 40%

stake while Kubota Corporation will hold the remaining 60% stake

Cement and agricultural tractors....

I fail to see the connection, but who am I ?

LaoPo

4 -5 weeks ago on a post about The Siam Cement Public Company Limited . it was reported by our "dooms day brigade"

that they are going to loosing money due to production/sales decrease lately because of declined demand.....

it was then sugested that the lack of demand is resulting from a all down of the construction sector. and a multi post speculation about how the cement industry is loosing money........

so the facts are if you follow all the posts :

Siam Cement Group is doing very well....

Siam Cement Public Company Limited has made gains in the first half year.

Siam Cement Public Company Limited is not only trading cements but in trading of construction products as well as other machinery as well.

and now they even have a joint venture with a large japaneese company.

It's good to hear they're doing so well.

Two things spring to mind.

1. Diversification of large companies; I've seen in it the west but in the end it's not always working

2. HOW ON EARTH is it possible that a foreign (Japanese) company can hold 60% versus 40% for SCC ?

LaoPo

to go through BOI incentives for factories for heavy machinery.

[midas]

Hey Highdiver you argued so vehemently last week that the

only reasons for the decline in the SET was that it was mirroring

movements in the DJ ?

Well last night the DJ increased yet again but today SET

is 27.62 down so how do you account for this ?

[LaoPo]

Can any SEt guru's shed some light as to why it has

fallen so heavily today ( 23.25 as at no 4.26 pm ) ?

It has virtually given back all the gains from yesterday

when I thought everyone felt LOS was heading on the

right road again after the refererendum result ?

I'm no guru, but it's obvious that the markets are still very nervous. That will continue for the next 2-3 months or so but likely longer than that.

Japan, Hong Kong, China, S Korea, Australia, NZ were up today but markets like Pakistan are: -3.53%, Thailand -3.15%, Indonesia -2.38%, India -3.22%, Singapore -2.82%, Malaysia -0.96%, Taiwan -0.43%

Philippines is an exception with +9.82%.

LaoPo

[midas]

Can any SEt guru's shed some light as to why it has

fallen so heavily today ( 23.25 as at no 4.26 pm ) ?

It has virtually given back all the gains from yesterday

when I thought everyone felt LOS was heading on the

right road again after the refererendum result ?

I'm no guru, but it's obvious that the markets are still very nervous. That will continue for the next 2-3 months or so but likely longer than that.

Japan, Hong Kong, China, S Korea, Australia, NZ were up today but markets like Pakistan are: -3.53%, Thailand -3.15%, Indonesia -2.38%, India -3.22%, Singapore -2.82%, Malaysia -0.96%, Taiwan -0.43%

Philippines is an exception with +9.82%.

LaoPo

but it was just " another day " in the other markets whereas

we are only in the second day after the referendum

passed so smoothly - it just seems strange because I expected

the euphoria to last much longer than this

[LaoPo]

Hey Highdiver you argued so vehemently last week that the

only reasons for the decline in the SET was that it was mirroring

movements in the DJ ?

Well last night the DJ increased yet again but today SET

is 27.62 down so how do you account for this ?

The Dow increased marginally; S&P decreased a tiny bit and Nasdaq just +0.14% up.

The markets are still in fear about what's up in the financial (US and thus worldwide) sector.

We know what happened, but we don't what's hidden in the barrels, so to speak. So the markets (including SET) will STAY nervous/volatile for the months to come.

DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 13,121.35 42.27 +0.32%

S&P 500 INDEX 1,445.55 -0.39 -0.03%

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 2,508.59 3.56 +0.14%

LaoPo

[midas]

Hey Highdiver you argued so vehemently last week that the

only reasons for the decline in the SET was that it was mirroring

movements in the DJ ?

Well last night the DJ increased yet again but today SET

is 27.62 down so how do you account for this ?

The Dow increased marginally; S&P decreased a tiny bit and Nasdaq just +0.14% up.

The markets are still in fear about what's up in the financial (US and thus worldwide) sector.

We know what happened, but we don't what's hidden in the barrels, so to speak. So the markets (including SET) will STAY nervous/volatile for the months to come.

DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 13,121.35 42.27 +0.32%

S&P 500 INDEX 1,445.55 -0.39 -0.03%

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 2,508.59 3.56 +0.14%

LaoPo

So when both markets move down together it's because SET is mirroring

DJ ( according to Highdiver ) and yet when DJ increases - no matter

how little it does so -and yet SET falls by 3.15% that is because the market's

are nervous that explanation seems like a having a bet each way to me

[Mid]

guaranteed winner in a two horse race .........................

[Mid]

Thai bourse falls 3.5 per cent on profit-taking

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 10:06:03 GMT

Bangkok - Thailand's stock market lost 3.5 per cent in value Tuesday on a wave of profit-taking prompted by rumours of political instability, brokers said.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index ended at 764.40, down 27.62 points, or 3.5 per cent, compared with Monday's closing index.

snip

earthtimes.org

[LaoPo]

There's no doubt this topic draws a lot of attention:

100 pages and almost 1.500 replies...

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Thai bourse falls 3.5 per cent on profit-taking

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 10:06:03 GMT

Bangkok - Thailand's stock market lost 3.5 per cent in value Tuesday on a wave of profit-taking prompted by rumours of political instability, brokers said.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index ended at 764.40, down 27.62 points, or 3.5 per cent, compared with Monday's closing index.

snip

earthtimes.org

At this very moment the majority of the European bourses is also in RED

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

the market has spoken and disagrees with the lollipops brigade......exports, the primary income earner is down........

Thai shares close sharply lower on foreign selling, disappointing July exports

The drop, which follows a sharp gain Monday after Thailand passed an army-backed constitution in a weekend referendum, was also the result of disappointing July export figures released by the commerce ministry.

http://www.abcmoney.co.uk/news/212007121632.htm

[LaoPo]

SET to offer open-ended mutual funds

Bangkok Post/Breaking news:

Bangkok (dpa) - Bangkok's bourse on Tuesday launched an initial public offering (IPO) for the country's first exchange traded fund (ETF), a stock product that has proven immensely popular on other markets.

"I think the timing is right for a new product on the market," said Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) President Patareeya Benjapolchai.

The SET will accept IPO subscriptions to the ETF between Tuesday and August 29 and list the new ThaiDEX SET50 ETF on the local bourse on September 6.

ETFs, open-ended mutual funds that can be traded like a stock, have experienced tremendous growth on world markets in recent years.

In 2006 there were 732 ETFs worldwide with an asset size worth 573.9 billion dollars, and another 516 will be listed in 2007. ETFs are designed to track the performance of a market index, such as the S&P 500 on the US market.

In Asia, ETFs have already been listed on stock markets in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia.

In Thailand, the ETF will include a basket of stocks from the SET 50, Thailand's blue chip stocks.

"Foreign investors in the ETF are welcome," said Patareeya, who added that investors in the ETF would face no limitations.

Rest here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=121016

Note: they sure know WHEN to pick the moment to release this ETF...

LaoPo

[xbusman]

I sure would like to see July exports. I think they will be very telling, good or bad or more probably a mix of both. Funny how when exports are up, they are in the Post first thing, but when they are down you have to wait a while for the figures to get massaged and packaged. I am still waiting for them to be reported in Zimbabwe dollars.

[midas]

the market has spoken and disagrees with the lollipops brigade......exports, the primary income earner is down........

Thai shares close sharply lower on foreign selling, disappointing July exports

The drop, which follows a sharp gain Monday after Thailand passed an army-backed constitution in a weekend referendum, was also the result of disappointing July export figures released by the commerce ministry.

http://www.abcmoney.co.uk/news/212007121632.htm

Thank you bingobongo - you are the guru Lets see what Highdiver

has to say about this then

[highdiver]

Hey Highdiver you argued so vehemently last week that the

only reasons for the decline in the SET was that it was mirroring

movements in the DJ ?

Well last night the DJ increased yet again but today SET

is 27.62 down so how do you account for this ?

The Dow increased marginally; S&P decreased a tiny bit and Nasdaq just +0.14% up.

The markets are still in fear about what's up in the financial (US and thus worldwide) sector.

We know what happened, but we don't what's hidden in the barrels, so to speak. So the markets (including SET) will STAY nervous/volatile for the months to come.

DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 13,121.35 42.27 +0.32%

S&P 500 INDEX 1,445.55 -0.39 -0.03%

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 2,508.59 3.56 +0.14%

LaoPo

So when both markets move down together it's because SET is mirroring

DJ ( according to Highdiver ) and yet when DJ increases - no matter

how little it does so -and yet SET falls by 3.15% that is because the market's

are nervous that explanation seems like a having a bet each way to me

midas you seem to have got it right this time even though your sarcasm

the fall of last week was not a mirror and i have never used that term. the fall was the reaction of forign investors pulling out and the whole world was doing the same thing... what i said was that it has nothing to do with thailand but more with the subprime crisis.

after the closure yesterday it has come apparen that this crisis is not over and the markets in Asia have reacted accordingly

the stock markets today in asia are all down and they are in europe as well, the us unless some big development from the Feds will probebly go down as well.

the main reason is that the little people who dont know whats going on and are fed by fear are withdrawing and running to cash.

this is wat is creating the crisis ... every one wants the cash and they want it now.

As for the effect of the referndum... welll it just proves once and for all that politics have nothing to do with decisions of investors.

[highdiver]

the market has spoken and disagrees with the lollipops brigade......exports, the primary income earner is down........

Thai shares close sharply lower on foreign selling, disappointing July exports

The drop, which follows a sharp gain Monday after Thailand passed an army-backed constitution in a weekend referendum, was also the result of disappointing July export figures released by the commerce ministry.

http://www.abcmoney.co.uk/news/212007121632.htm

Thank you bingobongo - you are the guru Lets see what Highdiver

has to say about this then

bingo guru?????

Midas I gave given you more credit then this

the article says

The commerce ministry reported Tuesday that exports in July rose only 5.9 percent year-on-year as overseas shipments were hard hit by a strong baht and the US economic slowdown.

you see its simple.... they did not go down they just grew by 5.9%.

i must admit it disapointing after the incrdible gowth of neary 19% in the first half...

At any case the exports this year are still higer then the last one.

[highdiver]

the central banks are very cery nervous today... this will take effect

CREDIT WRAPUP 3-Japan, US pledge vigilance as banks gloomy

Tue Aug 21, 2007 5:24 AM ET

(Recasts with German finance minister, banks, fresh quotes)

By Mike Peacock

LONDON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Finance chiefs of the world's two biggest economies pledged on Tuesday to keep a close watch on jittery markets, while banks at the sharp end of a global financial storm said they faced serious trouble.

The Chief Executive of Germany's WestLB [WDLG.UL] bank, Alexander Stuhlmann, said turmoil in the U.S. subprime mortgage market was making it difficult for German banks to get credit lines from their foreign partners.

Stuhlmann told reporters that German banks were in a "not uncritical situation" overall. WestLB has said it has over 1.2 billion euros in overall exposure to the U.S. subprime sector.

His assessment followed an announcement from Capital One Financial Corp <COF.N> that it will cut 1,900 jobs and shut down a wholesale mortgage unit it acquired less than a year ago, as it struggles with the U.S. housing downturn.

Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi said there were no plans for an emergency meeting of the Group of Seven industrialised nations following sharp gyrations in global markets.

But Omi told a news conference he had spoken by telephone with U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and they had agreed to keep a close eye on markets and stay in close contact.

"I could tell he has been making various efforts," Omi said of Paulson, though he did not give specific details. "We agreed that we will watch markets developments carefully for a while."

German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck insisted that the wider economy was sustaining little damage, an assertion consistently put forward by policymakers so far.

"I have no reason to doubt that we can effectively manage the effects of the U.S. mortgage crisis in Europe," Steinbrueck said, adding that expert opinion suggested the home loan crisis would not feed through to the real economy.

But investors remained ultra-cautious, fearing there may be more problems that have yet to come to light, stemming from a meltdown in the U.S. subprime sector, which could slow the world economy.

"There is still sense of caution in the air," said Irvin Seah, an economist at DBS Bank in Singapore. "If there is more bad news, what we saw last week is probably going to repeat itself. Most people think it will take another two months before things calm down."

[midas]

midas you seem to have got it right this time even though your sarcasm

the fall of last week was not a mirror and i have never used that term. the fall was the reaction of forign investors pulling out and the whole world was doing the same thing... what i said was that it has nothing to do with thailand but more with the subprime crisis.

after the closure yesterday it has come apparen that this crisis is not over and the markets in Asia have reacted accordingly

the stock markets today in asia are all down and they are in europe as well, the us unless some big development from the Feds will probebly go down as well.

the main reason is that the little people who dont know whats going on and are fed by fear are withdrawing and running to cash.

this is wat is creating the crisis ... every one wants the cash and they want it now.

As for the effect of the referndum... welll it just proves once and for all that politics have nothing to do with decisions of investors.

The Asian markets are not all down today ? As LaoPo mentioned Japan, Hong Kong, China, S Korea, Australia, NZ were up ? May be I used the incorrect terminology when I said " mirrored " but if you look back at your posts last week

you will see you insisted that there was only one reason the market was going down in Thailand ( last week ) and that

was due to the downward market in US - but you can't use that argument today ?

[xbusman]

Wow, ask and you shall receive. Just posted as breaking news.

US slowdown hit July exports

The Kigndom's export grew only 5.89 per cent to US$11.8 billion in July and it is the lowest export growth in 29 months.

The drop in export growth rate derived from the US's economic slowdown and its current trouble in subprime mortgage market as well as the strong baht.

However, Thailand's total export value jumped 16.65 per cent to US$83.4 billion during the first seven months of this year. At the same time, import value grew 5.14 per cent to US$77.69 billion, bringing Thailand logged into trade surplus of US$5.71 billion.

Commerce Minister Krirk-krai Jirapaet confirmed on Tuesday that the country's total export value will achieve its project of 12.5 per cent to US$145 billion this year.

The country's import value in July slightly increased 2.4 per cent to US$11.59 billion. In July alone, Thailand's trade surplus reached US$211 million.

- The Nation

I really wish they would stick to Thai baht. If we use 17% appreciation of the baht against the dollar since last year, it looks like adjusted for inflation, Thai exports are shrinking in baht terms, or in actual goods volume. Imports are up 5.14% in dollars terms but that would equate to about 23% in baht terms.

I am never sure if they are measuring month to month or against the same month last year. Easier to see that if exports jumped 16.65% YTD then they are either stopped or shrinking when measured in baht.

One month does not a trend make but I am guessing that this the start of watching our exports begin to evaporate. I am also quite concerned about the slow down in world markets, I think consumers world wide are putting on the brakes. Thats bad news for exporting countries. Now the fear is that if consumption slows down, and the dollar gains strength against the baht, the dramatic fall in export revenue could actually initiate a crisis. I think the Thai economy will be better able to cope with a slowly shrinking export market and increased government spending. They should have upped the competitiveness factor years ago with better schooling and capital investment, now I think the horse is out of the barn. Of course, 20/20 hindsight is pretty easy from a keyboard.

We know nothing until we see what exports do the rest of year. Its better at 34 but still going to be painful at that rate. I am really somewhat horrified to hear them talk about achieving 4% GDP growth this year if the river dont rise, the dam dont break, it doesnt rain too much, and we have a peaceful election. Its never that good and 4% is hardly optimistic. Still in these troubled time, it speaks to an underlying strength in the economy to have a positive growth rate at all considering all the problems they have encountered or incurred.

Just another fascinating year in the land of smiles.

[midas]

bingo guru?????

Midas I gave given you more credit then this

the article says

The commerce ministry reported Tuesday that exports in July rose only 5.9 percent year-on-year as overseas shipments were hard hit by a strong baht and the US economic slowdown.

you see its simple.... they did not go down they just grew by 5.9%. i must admit it disapointing after the incrdible gowth of neary 19% in the first half...

At any case the exports this year are still higer then the last one.

Oh yes now I understand - evidently investors were so delighted by this news that they

sold out of the market to the extent of 3.5%