The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[JR Texas]

Do any of you negative guys actually employ anyone over here? Or manufacture anything over here?

although i am not a "negative guy" on Thailand here's my two satangs. i have three fulltime employees but i do not manufacture anything in Thailand. except for my home i refused and will refuse in future to invest one single Baht in Thailand no matter what potential profit i might be able reap. knowing that my funds are safe offshore where no thai legislation and no Thai partner can touch them gives me a sound sleep, let me sip my portwine and puff my havanna much more relaxed even though my average yield on investment might soon drop to a single digit.

JR Texas to Dr. Naam: Some of the most positive persons I can think of complained (examples: JFK, RFK, MLK, Gandhi).......of course, the mainstream mass media wants the general public to think that "complaining" is "negative" because it stops positive action (i.e., acting on solutions).

Like you, with the exception of a house, I have refused to invest in Thailand. And I will continue to refuse to invest in Thailand as long as I believe that the government wants to kick expats out of the country (via visa rules) and prevent small scale investment (via business rules).

No doubt there are thousands of other expats out there that feel the same. Unfortunately, less than 1% of the population in Thailand (the top members of the corporate-political-military power structure) owns virtually everything.

They are terrified of change and competition. And far too many are xenophobic. This is the underlying problem.......it is the unspoken reason for the destructive visa/business rules. It is why Thailand is falling behind most of the other "Asian Tigers" in terms of foreign investment and development.

Unfortunately, the newbies steering the boat (all trained at the Three Stooges School of Government) seem to be immune to reason or logical thought. Oh look........there is a rock up ahead.........great, steer a course directly towards it! Oh look, there are holes in the bottom of the boat and it is sinking........great, drill more holes in the bottom of the boat!

Well, that is the way it seems to me from my perspective.

[Edonista]

Please enlighten us about what goods allow you to gain 300% (while keeping you out of monkey house, of course)

Garments.

Manufacture for 300 baht, sell for 1000+.

Manufacture for 2000 baht, sell for 7000+.

We own the European and USA distribution, plus directly handle end-customer sales for over 50% of our transactions.

We need more skilled staff and a loosening of the baht to expand further.

If you are making such astonishing profits, why do you need the baht to depreciate ? What is a miserable 10% baht appreciation compared to your fancy 300% mark up ? I mean, you should still have a 270% mark up, shouldn't you ?

The fact is that your selling prices are not the f.o.b. Thailand ones, they are the wholesale (or perhaps even retail) prices you (try to) cash in USA or Europe. And they are so high because of high expenses related.

Many people are ashamed that a pair of Nike shoes is manufactured by asian firms who get 10/20$ and are then sold in shops for 100$. The problem is that the distribution costs in USA (shop rent, salesman salary, taxes,etc.) are so high they actually end to make up the main part of total costs.

So when you say you have a mark up of 300% you say a lie, because most of that added value is created in USA and Europe by your distribution chain, not in Thailand by your manufacturing activities.

Try to sell your garments to a USA or Europe import firm and see what mark up you get.

Edited May 20, 2007 by Edonista

[Edonista]

This month, the company, now called IRPC PCL, the nation's biggest petrochemicals maker, plans to sell US$400 million of new bonds.

how much is the coupon ?

[jumnien]

Stock Exchange of Thailand up 7-8% so far this year. Not exactly evidence of a crisis. True, the economy is not exactly overheated at the moment, but talk of crisis is absurd.

[Edonista]

Next question?

From the Economic Intelligence Unit (The world leader in global business intelligence, so they say - May 15th, 2007:

Economic forecast

Reflecting the surprisingly strong export performance (of Thailand) in the first quarter of 2007, combined with particularly weak import growth, the Economist Intelligence Unit has revised upwards its GDP growth forecast for this year to 4.5% from 4% previously.

http://www.eiu.com/

I wonder why all the BoT fuss about the too strong baht and capital inflows then.

The fact is that exports are double digits rising in $ value, but almost stable in THB value.

To keep exporting many firms had to accept to work at loss. This is expecially true for agroindustrial (CPF,GFPT,STA) and garment (UF,UT) that suffer Vietnam competition.

Of course they cannot work at loss forever so we can expect export firms to close their lower added value productions and focus on higher segments (if they have)

[Mid]

Stock Exchange of Thailand up 7-8% so far this year. Not exactly evidence of a crisis. True, the economy is not exactly overheated at the moment, but talk of crisis is absurd.

[jumnien]

I can understand the Thailand newbie's fears, but those of us who have been around awhile have seen the good and the bad cycles come and go and most of us really don't see this as Thailand's big crisis time. We've been thru 'em enough to have a pretty good sense about it. Relax and enjoy the ride!

[Edonista]

Stock Exchange of Thailand up 7-8% so far this year. Not exactly evidence of a crisis. True, the economy is not exactly overheated at the moment, but talk of crisis is absurd.

Rebounding 7-8% after the 19 Dec bloodbath is not a result to be proud of.

SET index was 1800 in 1994. It is 730 now.It was 800 at 2003 end.

Anyway if you bore to read Bangkok Post or surf the SET website, you can see how most listed companies reported declining profits (sometimes plain losses)in 2007 1st quarter.

And bank sector complains about poor installment collection and high repossession costs (look at SICCO 1st quarter)

[jumnien]

Exactly, my point Mr. Edonista. Thailand has been sluggish for some time now in many ways. Hardly some sudden crisis we have to alert Henny Penny about. Amidst the general sluggishness are many opportunities to participate in profitable ways. I understand a more conservative investor not having the stomach for investing in these parts of the world, but many of us have done quite well.

I read your statement "I avoid marriage and stick to short time ladies" in another financially related thread and completely understand where you are coming from now. God knows I spent many years where your at and am in no position to judge. I think however, your reluctance to invest in longer term commitments says more about you than about Thailand, if you know what I mean. Cheers.

Edited May 20, 2007 by mdeland

[palm]

So when you say you have a mark up of 300% you say a lie, because most of that added value is created in USA and Europe by your distribution chain, not in Thailand by your manufacturing activities.

Huh? Geez you need to take a basic course in basic economics. We OWN major parts of the overseas distribution chain. Don't you have any experience or understand anything about running a real global business?

In your wacky-world, your c. 10% bond return a year is higher than our 300% return from investing in Thailand? I am talking cold hard CASH profits made in Dollars, Euros and Sterling.

If you are making a profit from a dollar investment, your dollar in your hand is a dollar in your hand. It doesn't matter where the source of the return came from. This is basic ABC economics.

You can whine and moan all you like, but there are substantial investment returns to be made in Thailand, now and in the future. Only you can't accept the fact that anyone can possibly do better than your returns by investing in the Thai marketplace.

Yes more sour grapes.

[Edonista]

So when you say you have a mark up of 300% you say a lie, because most of that added value is created in USA and Europe by your distribution chain, not in Thailand by your manufacturing activities.

Huh? Geez you need to take a basic course in basic economics. We OWN major parts of the overseas distribution chain. Don't you have any experience or understand anything about running a real global business?

In your wacky-world, your c. 10% bond return a year is higher than our 300% return from investing in Thailand? I am talking cold hard CASH profits made in Dollars, Euros and Sterling.

If you are making a profit from a dollar investment, your dollar in your hand is a dollar in your hand. It doesn't matter where the source of the return came from. This is basic ABC economics.

You can whine and moan all you like, but there are substantial investment returns to be made in Thailand, now and in the future. Only you can't accept the fact that anyone can possibly do better than your returns by investing in the Thai marketplace.

Yes more sour grapes.

The answer you don't give says more than the answer you give.

I will repeat the question:

If you are making such astonishing profits, why do you need the baht to depreciate ? What is a miserable 10% baht appreciation compared to your fancy 300% mark up ? I mean, you should still have a 270% mark up, shouldn't you ?

that followed your statement

We need more skilled staff and a loosening of the baht to expand further.

Anyway enjoy your 270%. Be assured that in spite of my envy for such returns I am not going to be a future competitor.

Edited May 20, 2007 by Edonista

[highdiver]

Next question?

From the Economic Intelligence Unit (The world leader in global business intelligence, so they say - May 15th, 2007:

Economic forecast

Reflecting the surprisingly strong export performance (of Thailand) in the first quarter of 2007, combined with particularly weak import growth, the Economist Intelligence Unit has revised upwards its GDP growth forecast for this year to 4.5% from 4% previously.

http://www.eiu.com/

I wonder why all the BoT fuss about the too strong baht and capital inflows then.

The fact is that exports are double digits rising in $ value, but almost stable in THB value.

To keep exporting many firms had to accept to work at loss. This is expecially true for agroindustrial (CPF,GFPT,STA) and garment (UF,UT) that suffer Vietnam competition.

Of course they cannot work at loss forever so we can expect export firms to close their lower added value productions and focus on higher segments (if they have)

you have hit the nail on its head.

Thailand is is a very strong dilema because of different factors at the same Time.

1. thailand wants forign investments. however Thailand wants direct investments and even gives benefits to investors through the BOI. on the other hand Thailand does not want "hot mony" of large Hedge funds coming in bulks and apreaciating the Baht. As such the capital inflow controlls. to avoid short term hot money. or at least an attempt to do it.

2. The ones who are crying about this are mainly those who wish to speculate and find reasons to blaim it on the BOT and political unrest.(you got to balme someone) and they are the ones that stand to loose for this.

serious investors are coming in on daily basis and investing all the time. do you think that those investors are not aware of the political climate or the Risks?? so why are they investing? because Thailand ’s medium to long-term prospects remain strong due to sound macroeconomic fundamentals and they know it.

I have seen some post on this thread alarming that Lehman Brothers predicting a great future are wrong...

so Lehman Brothers one of the world bigest firms just dont get it and they invest billions into long term investments in Thailand..I can go on and on about those large investments only in the last month but i think the picture is clear.

medium long term investments are pouring in.. Short term, hot money,speculative and small time investments are not coming... and use the media and even Thai Visa forum to weep and bitch about how unfair it is.

2. the Thai economy is highly dependent on exports,with exports of agriculture, as well as of labor-intensive and machinery manufacturers. The economies of Thailand ’s trading partners are expected to slow down mainly USA , thus reducing demands for Thai exports. So a stronger Thai baht will contribute even further to the export problem. the Thai baht is allready strong enough and it is hurting exports, As such the goverment is intialising support for those sectors. and this is exactly what they should be doing.

3. the laws and debate regarding the FBA have been debated in length on another thread. and the Thai point of view remains the same. Thailand does not want small time investments compeating wioth locals. they would like to see large investments run by serious investors and they even have a list of very generous incentives for those investors through the BOI. Thailand does not wish to have small time investors opening a bar or a resteraunts.

This action is naturaly not favored by those coming to thailand and wanting to open up a small business.

4. Thailand is not restricting forigners by Visas. they request that forigners coming to stay in thailand for other then travel and tourist have a valid visa according to the purpose of the stay.

Thailand does not want forigners going in and out on "visa on arrival" and using it to constantly to stay in Thailand.

Thailand want to have retiree coming for long stay but they need to prove that they can have financial ability to stay in thailand. and the ones that wish to do business need to have a business visa and a work permit.

if you wish to work in Thailand you need a work permit as you do in every western country.

to sum it up Thailand is on the right way (I am going to get a lot of answers on this on ) as long as they can avoid the hot money from hege funds, recruit investors that are big investors in direct investment, and get only wealthy law obbiding forigners to come and live here.

[bingobongo]

happy sunday "rainbows and lollipops" gang, even usually jovial Thais are more realistic than the "defenders of the realm" on this board......

dont hate the player highdiver, hate the game......keep your emotions at home and out of investing

ABAC Poll: intensified Thai political crisis looming

According to the ABAC survey, 42.9 per cent of the respondents agreed that the country's economy was deteriorating and 37.7 per cent said the economy remained as bad as before.

Over two-thirds of respondents – 67 per cent – said their income and spending were at low level.

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=29479

[Mid]

get only wealthy law obbiding forigners to come and live here

good luck with that ...................................

[bkkandrew]

Next question?

From the Economic Intelligence Unit (The world leader in global business intelligence, so they say - May 15th, 2007:

Economic forecast

Reflecting the surprisingly strong export performance (of Thailand) in the first quarter of 2007, combined with particularly weak import growth, the Economist Intelligence Unit has revised upwards its GDP growth forecast for this year to 4.5% from 4% previously.

http://www.eiu.com/

I wonder why all the BoT fuss about the too strong baht and capital inflows then.

The fact is that exports are double digits rising in $ value, but almost stable in THB value.

To keep exporting many firms had to accept to work at loss. This is expecially true for agroindustrial (CPF,GFPT,STA) and garment (UF,UT) that suffer Vietnam competition.

Of course they cannot work at loss forever so we can expect export firms to close their lower added value productions and focus on higher segments (if they have)

you have hit the nail on its head.

Thailand is is a very strong dilema because of different factors at the same Time.

1. thailand wants forign investments. however Thailand wants direct investments and even gives benefits to investors through the BOI. on the other hand Thailand does not want "hot mony" of large Hedge funds coming in bulks and apreaciating the Baht. As such the capital inflow controlls. to avoid short term hot money. or at least an attempt to do it.

2. The ones who are crying about this are mainly those who wish to speculate and find reasons to blaim it on the BOT and political unrest.(you got to balme someone) and they are the ones that stand to loose for this.

serious investors are coming in on daily basis and investing all the time. do you think that those investors are not aware of the political climate or the Risks?? so why are they investing? because Thailand ’s medium to long-term prospects remain strong due to sound macroeconomic fundamentals and they know it.

I have seen some post on this thread alarming that Lehman Brothers predicting a great future are wrong...

so Lehman Brothers one of the world bigest firms just dont get it and they invest billions into long term investments in Thailand..I can go on and on about those large investments only in the last month but i think the picture is clear.

medium long term investments are pouring in.. Short term, hot money,speculative and small time investments are not coming... and use the media and even Thai Visa forum to weep and bitch about how unfair it is.

2. the Thai economy is highly dependent on exports,with exports of agriculture, as well as of labor-intensive and machinery manufacturers. The economies of Thailand ’s trading partners are expected to slow down mainly USA , thus reducing demands for Thai exports. So a stronger Thai baht will contribute even further to the export problem. the Thai baht is allready strong enough and it is hurting exports, As such the goverment is intialising support for those sectors. and this is exactly what they should be doing.

3. the laws and debate regarding the FBA have been debated in length on another thread. and the Thai point of view remains the same. Thailand does not want small time investments compeating wioth locals. they would like to see large investments run by serious investors and they even have a list of very generous incentives for those investors through the BOI. Thailand does not wish to have small time investors opening a bar or a resteraunts.

This action is naturaly not favored by those coming to thailand and wanting to open up a small business.

4. Thailand is not restricting forigners by Visas. they request that forigners coming to stay in thailand for other then travel and tourist have a valid visa according to the purpose of the stay.

Thailand does not want forigners going in and out on "visa on arrival" and using it to constantly to stay in Thailand.

Thailand want to have retiree coming for long stay but they need to prove that they can have financial ability to stay in thailand. and the ones that wish to do business need to have a business visa and a work permit.

if you wish to work in Thailand you need a work permit as you do in every western country.

to sum it up Thailand is on the right way (I am going to get a lot of answers on this on ) as long as they can avoid the hot money from hege funds, recruit investors that are big investors in direct investment, and get only wealthy law obbiding forigners to come and live here.

You must be the only person in Thailand that thinks Thailand is on "the right way" to anywhere!

[Naam]

the brazilan real has high interest rates. but you should be very careful about investing there. they had a currency devaluation back in 1999. I guess for a short term it would be ok. but my guess is they will have another valuation sometime again soon. they still haven't fixed their problem with the debt.

Nick,

you have to update your information. Brazil has no more debt problems. the currency devaluation in 1999 was an absolute must because the 1:1 BRL/USD was impossible to sustain and was introduced only to curb rampant inflation. the country is on the verge of being rated "investment grade", if not in 2007 then in 2008. Brazils sovereign bond debt in USD yields less than 6% (short term less than 5%!) and in €UR just a tad above 5%. i rode the brazilian Real all the way from 4.05 to 2.0235 (vs. USD) but decided last week to get out, cashing in 100% exchange rate profit plus an average of 18% interest per annum.

perhaps it was a mistake as BRL/USD traded friday close at 1.9590!

graph BRL/USD:

[highdiver]

happy sunday "rainbows and lollipops" gang, even usually jovial Thais are more realistic than the "defenders of the realm" on this board......

dont hate the player highdiver, hate the game......keep your emotions at home and out of investing

ABAC Poll: intensified Thai political crisis looming

According to the ABAC survey, 42.9 per cent of the respondents agreed that the country's economy was deteriorating and 37.7 per cent said the economy remained as bad as before.

Over two-thirds of respondents – 67 per cent – said their income and spending were at low level.

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=29479

I do not hate the game or the players. and you are right emotions need to be out when playing in the harsh game of investments.

I am very happy with my investments situation and my protfolio is a bit more chalenging then gold, silver , USD and Euro.

As for the Poll

"His remarks were based on results of a survey conducted by ABAC among 4,525 people nationwide between May 10-19."

you can not be realy taking this guy seriously a poll for a country of 55 milion people with huge demographic diversity is only made in a week and covers only 4500 people.. . mai how na

"According to the ABAC survey, 42.9 per cent of the respondents agreed that the country's economy was deteriorating

that means that a majority of 57.1 did not agree to that.

and 37.7 per cent said the economy remained as bad as before."

so logicly the other 63 per said that the economy did not remain as bad as before. hence it got better.

[highdiver]

the brazilan real has high interest rates. but you should be very careful about investing there. they had a currency devaluation back in 1999. I guess for a short term it would be ok. but my guess is they will have another valuation sometime again soon. they still haven't fixed their problem with the debt.

Nick,

you have to update your information. Brazil has no more debt problems. the currency devaluation in 1999 was an absolute must because the 1:1 BRL/USD was impossible to sustain and was introduced only to curb rampant inflation. the country is on the verge of being rated "investment grade", if not in 2007 then in 2008. Brazils sovereign bond debt in USD yields less than 6% (short term less than 5%!) and in €UR just a tad above 5%. i rode the brazilian Real all the way from 4.05 to 2.0235 (vs. USD) but decided last week to get out, cashing in 100% exchange rate profit plus an average of 18% interest per annum.

perhaps it was a mistake as BRL/USD traded friday close at 1.9590!

graph BRL/USD:

better one in the hand....

[Edonista]

BRL/USD traded friday close at 1.9590!

graph BRL/USD:

Thank you Lord for blessing my EIB 12.50% 2008

Next target Dr.Naam ? What about Mongolian Togrog and Sri Lanka Rupee ?

[midas]

the global credit bust is coming, and Thailand has learned nothing, oh well, just another reason for me not to touch Thailand at the moment and just wait for it to implode (some more)......

i guess the old adage about a pig in a dress is still a pig still holds true......

highdiver, just curious, have you ever taken a finance/economics/psychology class?

Credit market 'bubble' may be ready to burst

Investor appetite for junk bonds shows no signs of waning. Seven years ago, Thai Petrochemical Industry PCL defaulted on its bonds and was declared insolvent with debts of US$3.5 billion in Thailand's biggest bankruptcy. This month, the company, now called IRPC PCL, the nation's biggest petrochemicals maker, plans to sell US$400 million of new bonds.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/news/archives/...7520/110114.htm

This is a very sobering article. People such as Tim Bond of Barclays Capital,

Ken Lewis of Bank of America, Suki Mann of Societe Generale,

Anthony Bolton at Fidelity International - all seem very concerned about the GLOBAL situation

- not just Thailand - BUT THEN AGAIN - they can chat with the like of " mdeland "

who can tell them there is nothing to worry about and they should just " keep enjoying themselves "

[jumnien]

Be worried and miserable if it suits you; that's the beauty of it!

[Naam]

Next target Dr.Naam ? What about Mongolian Togrog and Sri Lanka Rupee ?

it's going to be difficult Edonista the world is awash with liquidity and as far as currencies are concerned we had a global run-up during the last two years. BRL, COP, IDR, PHP, INR, ISK, TRY have become quite expensive and CNY NDFs are only available in huge minimum quantities. i still hold TRY and ISk but before i start a manufacturing business in Thailand with 300% profits i will buy MXN again with a meagre 9% yield.

life has become difficult for us retired poor boys! i think we have to postpone the purchase of the latest Learjet model and fire at least half of the 16 man crews of our yachts to make ends meet .

p.s. we also have to slash the pocket money of our wives! of course they won't like it. but where else can we save a few bucks?

[highdiver]

Next target Dr.Naam ? What about Mongolian Togrog and Sri Lanka Rupee ?

it's going to be difficult Edonista the world is awash with liquidity and as far as currencies are concerned we had a global run-up during the last two years. BRL, COP, IDR, PHP, INR, ISK, TRY have become quite expensive and CNY NDFs are only available in huge minimum quantities. i still hold TRY and ISk but before i start a manufacturing business in Thailand with 300% profits i will buy MXN again with a meagre 9% yield.

life has become difficult for us retired poor boys! i think we have to postpone the purchase of the latest Learjet model and fire at least half of the 16 man crews of our yachts to make ends meet .

p.s. we also have to slash the pocket money of our wives! of course they won't like it. but where else can we save a few bucks?

do you get the filling that the world is full of ballons. great big ones.

and someone is walking around witha pin...

[Naam]

Next target Dr.Naam ? What about Mongolian Togrog and Sri Lanka Rupee ?

it's going to be difficult Edonista the world is awash with liquidity and as far as currencies are concerned we had a global run-up during the last two years. BRL, COP, IDR, PHP, INR, ISK, TRY have become quite expensive and CNY NDFs are only available in huge minimum quantities. i still hold TRY and ISk but before i start a manufacturing business in Thailand with 300% profits i will buy MXN again with a meagre 9% yield.

life has become difficult for us retired poor boys! i think we have to postpone the purchase of the latest Learjet model and fire at least half of the 16 man crews of our yachts to make ends meet .

p.s. we also have to slash the pocket money of our wives! of course they won't like it. but where else can we save a few bucks?

do you get the filling that the world is full of ballons. great big ones.

and someone is walking around witha pin...

Diver,

i'm an old investor dog and during approximately three decades i have never faced a situation similar to the one we are facing now. true, everything seems to be overdone and a number of gurus are talking about a bubble. BUT economic blocks have drifted apart. personally i don't believe in a global crash and i am not risk averse. however, i am trying to diversify as much as i can to ride out a crash IF and WHEN it might come. the gurus talk about pin pricks but none of them have a rational explanation WHY some pin would prick the ballon.

[Steely Dan]

Next question?

From the Economic Intelligence Unit (The world leader in global business intelligence, so they say - May 15th, 2007:

Economic forecast

Reflecting the surprisingly strong export performance (of Thailand) in the first quarter of 2007, combined with particularly weak import growth, the Economist Intelligence Unit has revised upwards its GDP growth forecast for this year to 4.5% from 4% previously.

http://www.eiu.com/

I wonder why all the BoT fuss about the too strong baht and capital inflows then.

The fact is that exports are double digits rising in $ value, but almost stable in THB value.

To keep exporting many firms had to accept to work at loss. This is expecially true for agroindustrial (CPF,GFPT,STA) and garment (UF,UT) that suffer Vietnam competition.

Of course they cannot work at loss forever so we can expect export firms to close their lower added value productions and focus on higher segments (if they have)

you have hit the nail on its head.

Thailand is is a very strong dilema because of different factors at the same Time.

1. thailand wants forign investments. however Thailand wants direct investments and even gives benefits to investors through the BOI. on the other hand Thailand does not want "hot mony" of large Hedge funds coming in bulks and apreaciating the Baht. As such the capital inflow controlls. to avoid short term hot money. or at least an attempt to do it.

2. The ones who are crying about this are mainly those who wish to speculate and find reasons to blaim it on the BOT and political unrest.(you got to balme someone) and they are the ones that stand to loose for this.

serious investors are coming in on daily basis and investing all the time. do you think that those investors are not aware of the political climate or the Risks?? so why are they investing? because Thailand ’s medium to long-term prospects remain strong due to sound macroeconomic fundamentals and they know it.

I have seen some post on this thread alarming that Lehman Brothers predicting a great future are wrong...

so Lehman Brothers one of the world bigest firms just dont get it and they invest billions into long term investments in Thailand..I can go on and on about those large investments only in the last month but i think the picture is clear. medium long term investments are pouring in.. Short term, hot money,speculative and small time investments are not coming... and use the media and even Thai Visa forum to weep and bitch about how unfair it is.

2. the Thai economy is highly dependent on exports,with exports of agriculture, as well as of labor-intensive and machinery manufacturers. The economies of Thailand ’s trading partners are expected to slow down mainly USA , thus reducing demands for Thai exports. So a stronger Thai baht will contribute even further to the export problem. the Thai baht is allready strong enough and it is hurting exports, As such the goverment is intialising support for those sectors. and this is exactly what they should be doing.

3. the laws and debate regarding the FBA have been debated in length on another thread. and the Thai point of view remains the same. Thailand does not want small time investments compeating wioth locals. they would like to see large investments run by serious investors and they even have a list of very generous incentives for those investors through the BOI. Thailand does not wish to have small time investors opening a bar or a resteraunts.

This action is naturaly not favored by those coming to thailand and wanting to open up a small business.

4. Thailand is not restricting forigners by Visas. they request that forigners coming to stay in thailand for other then travel and tourist have a valid visa according to the purpose of the stay.

Thailand does not want forigners going in and out on "visa on arrival" and using it to constantly to stay in Thailand.

Thailand want to have retiree coming for long stay but they need to prove that they can have financial ability to stay in thailand. and the ones that wish to do business need to have a business visa and a work permit.

if you wish to work in Thailand you need a work permit as you do in every western country.

to sum it up Thailand is on the right way (I am going to get a lot of answers on this on ) as long as they can avoid the hot money from hege funds, recruit investors that are big investors in direct investment, and get only wealthy law obbiding forigners to come and live here.

Would you like a list of Lehman stock picks and price targets from 1999? Size is no guarantee of competence, to be fair to Lehmans most investment houses are wearing the same rose tinted specs, a sign of the times I guess.

[highdiver]

Next question?

From the Economic Intelligence Unit (The world leader in global business intelligence, so they say - May 15th, 2007:

Economic forecast

Reflecting the surprisingly strong export performance (of Thailand) in the first quarter of 2007, combined with particularly weak import growth, the Economist Intelligence Unit has revised upwards its GDP growth forecast for this year to 4.5% from 4% previously.

http://www.eiu.com/

I wonder why all the BoT fuss about the too strong baht and capital inflows then.

The fact is that exports are double digits rising in $ value, but almost stable in THB value.

To keep exporting many firms had to accept to work at loss. This is expecially true for agroindustrial (CPF,GFPT,STA) and garment (UF,UT) that suffer Vietnam competition.

Of course they cannot work at loss forever so we can expect export firms to close their lower added value productions and focus on higher segments (if they have)

you have hit the nail on its head.

Thailand is is a very strong dilema because of different factors at the same Time.

1. thailand wants forign investments. however Thailand wants direct investments and even gives benefits to investors through the BOI. on the other hand Thailand does not want "hot mony" of large Hedge funds coming in bulks and apreaciating the Baht. As such the capital inflow controlls. to avoid short term hot money. or at least an attempt to do it.

2. The ones who are crying about this are mainly those who wish to speculate and find reasons to blaim it on the BOT and political unrest.(you got to balme someone) and they are the ones that stand to loose for this.

serious investors are coming in on daily basis and investing all the time. do you think that those investors are not aware of the political climate or the Risks?? so why are they investing? because Thailand ’s medium to long-term prospects remain strong due to sound macroeconomic fundamentals and they know it.

I have seen some post on this thread alarming that Lehman Brothers predicting a great future are wrong...

so Lehman Brothers one of the world bigest firms just dont get it and they invest billions into long term investments in Thailand..I can go on and on about those large investments only in the last month but i think the picture is clear. medium long term investments are pouring in.. Short term, hot money,speculative and small time investments are not coming... and use the media and even Thai Visa forum to weep and bitch about how unfair it is.

2. the Thai economy is highly dependent on exports,with exports of agriculture, as well as of labor-intensive and machinery manufacturers. The economies of Thailand ’s trading partners are expected to slow down mainly USA , thus reducing demands for Thai exports. So a stronger Thai baht will contribute even further to the export problem. the Thai baht is allready strong enough and it is hurting exports, As such the goverment is intialising support for those sectors. and this is exactly what they should be doing.

3. the laws and debate regarding the FBA have been debated in length on another thread. and the Thai point of view remains the same. Thailand does not want small time investments compeating wioth locals. they would like to see large investments run by serious investors and they even have a list of very generous incentives for those investors through the BOI. Thailand does not wish to have small time investors opening a bar or a resteraunts.

This action is naturaly not favored by those coming to thailand and wanting to open up a small business.

4. Thailand is not restricting forigners by Visas. they request that forigners coming to stay in thailand for other then travel and tourist have a valid visa according to the purpose of the stay.

Thailand does not want forigners going in and out on "visa on arrival" and using it to constantly to stay in Thailand.

Thailand want to have retiree coming for long stay but they need to prove that they can have financial ability to stay in thailand. and the ones that wish to do business need to have a business visa and a work permit.

if you wish to work in Thailand you need a work permit as you do in every western country.

to sum it up Thailand is on the right way (I am going to get a lot of answers on this on ) as long as they can avoid the hot money from hege funds, recruit investors that are big investors in direct investment, and get only wealthy law obbiding forigners to come and live here.

Would you like a list of Lehman stock picks and price targets from 1999? Size is no guarantee of competence, to be fair to Lehmans most investment houses are wearing the same rose tinted specs, a sign of the times I guess.

are you serious??? or are you having a go??

i was not refering to Stocks but to direct investment.

at any case if you wish to see the performence of these guys

here is the link

http://www.lehman.com/press/qe/past/index.htm

[Steely Dan]

are you serious??? or are you having a go??

i was not refering to Stocks but to direct investment.

at any case if you wish to see the performence of these guys

here is the link

http://www.lehman.com/press/qe/past/index.htm

Come now we are discussing the economic situation in Thailand which has been shaped by the global liquidity boom lead by the U.S Fed slashing interest rates between 2000 and 2003. There is so much money (debt) sloshing round the system that it finds homes everywhere from stocks to stamps to vintage wines to banana republic bonds and even directly to military junta controlled countries providing the view is pretty enough: This does not stop overdevelopment based on utopian projections. P.S Office space in many skyscrapers built in the 20's lay empty for 20 years after the Wall street crash of 1929.

Edited May 20, 2007 by Steely Dan

[bingobongo]

welcome to your police state.........please report on your friends, family and undesirables who would dare denouce the glorious coup as we have no intention of stepping down once the "democratic elections" are rigged accordingly

so are the "supporters" equivalent to a secret police? or are they an extension of the army or police force?

POLITICAL TENSION

Govt in move to head off violence

Authorities set to call on 700,000 supporters to block trouble, says Isoc adviser Pallop

"The idea is to take out as many as possible prospective demonstrators . In a public rally with less than 50,000 participants, there will be no problem," Pallop said.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/21...es_30034736.php

Edited May 20, 2007 by bingobongo

[ThaiGoon]

you have hit the nail on its head.

Thailand is is a very strong dilema because of different factors at the same Time.

1. thailand wants forign investments. however Thailand wants direct investments and even gives benefits to investors through the BOI. on the other hand Thailand does not want "hot mony" of large Hedge funds coming in bulks and apreaciating the Baht. As such the capital inflow controlls. to avoid short term hot money. or at least an attempt to do it.

2. The ones who are crying about this are mainly those who wish to speculate and find reasons to blaim it on the BOT and political unrest.(you got to balme someone) and they are the ones that stand to loose for this.

serious investors are coming in on daily basis and investing all the time. do you think that those investors are not aware of the political climate or the Risks?? so why are they investing? because Thailand ’s medium to long-term prospects remain strong due to sound macroeconomic fundamentals and they know it.

I have seen some post on this thread alarming that Lehman Brothers predicting a great future are wrong...

so Lehman Brothers one of the world bigest firms just dont get it and they invest billions into long term investments in Thailand..I can go on and on about those large investments only in the last month but i think the picture is clear.

medium long term investments are pouring in.. Short term, hot money,speculative and small time investments are not coming... and use the media and even Thai Visa forum to weep and bitch about how unfair it is.

2. the Thai economy is highly dependent on exports,with exports of agriculture, as well as of labor-intensive and machinery manufacturers. The economies of Thailand ’s trading partners are expected to slow down mainly USA , thus reducing demands for Thai exports. So a stronger Thai baht will contribute even further to the export problem. the Thai baht is allready strong enough and it is hurting exports, As such the goverment is intialising support for those sectors. and this is exactly what they should be doing.

3. the laws and debate regarding the FBA have been debated in length on another thread. and the Thai point of view remains the same. Thailand does not want small time investments compeating wioth locals. they would like to see large investments run by serious investors and they even have a list of very generous incentives for those investors through the BOI. Thailand does not wish to have small time investors opening a bar or a resteraunts.

This action is naturaly not favored by those coming to thailand and wanting to open up a small business.

4. Thailand is not restricting forigners by Visas. they request that forigners coming to stay in thailand for other then travel and tourist have a valid visa according to the purpose of the stay.

Thailand does not want forigners going in and out on "visa on arrival" and using it to constantly to stay in Thailand.

Thailand want to have retiree coming for long stay but they need to prove that they can have financial ability to stay in thailand. and the ones that wish to do business need to have a business visa and a work permit.

if you wish to work in Thailand you need a work permit as you do in every western country.

to sum it up Thailand is on the right way (I am going to get a lot of answers on this on ) as long as they can avoid the hot money from hege funds, recruit investors that are big investors in direct investment, and get only wealthy law obbiding forigners to come and live here.

Wow, the most fair, reasonable and understading view of Thailand that I have ever read on here. Very nicely written krab. (I wish there were more like you.) Cheers krab. :D

[cclub75]

Half-point interest rate cut expected

Target at end of year projected at 3%

The financial market anticipates the Bank of Thailand will cut its benchmark interest rate by a half percent to 3.5% instead of only a quarter point on Wednesday due to worse-than-expected economic conditions.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/21May2007_biz31.php

It's rather funny to see that the debate over interest rates was before aimed at curbing the THB increase...

As you can see, the "tone" has changed... From a currency problem... we jump directly to the "worse-than-expected economic conditions".

So much for the followers of Lehman Brothers.

But they will probably tell us that "now" with low interest rates the machine is going to run at full speed.

Unfortunatly, the road ahead is still very bumpy.