Wild weather this year shows growing impact of climate change, scientists say

[snoop1130]

Wild weather this year shows growing impact of climate change, scientists say

By Matthew Green

 

FILE PHOTO: A fire burns as back burning is used to create a firebreak to stop the progress of a fire at a tract of the Amazon jungle in Apui, Amazonas State, Brazil, August 11, 2020. REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino/File Photo

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The planet is showing signs it's in peril. In recent weeks, the world has seen ferocious wildfires in the U.S. West, torrential rains in Africa, weirdly warm temperatures on the surface of tropical oceans, and record heat waves from California to the Siberian Arctic.

 

This spate of wild weather is consistent with climate change, scientists say, and the world can expect even more extreme weather and higher risks from natural disasters as global emissions of greenhouse gases continue.

 

"We are seeing the emergence of some signals that would have had almost no chance of happening without human-induced climate change," said Sonia Seneviratne, a climate scientist at Swiss university ETH Zurich.

 

For decades, scientists have warned of such events – but have been wary of saying that a particular storm or heat wave was a direct result of climate change. That's now changing.

 

Advances in a relatively new field known as "event attribution science" have enabled researchers to assess how big a role climate change might have played in a specific case.

 

In determining that link, scientists assess simulations of how weather systems might behave if humans had never started pumping carbon dioxide into the air, and compare that with what is happening today. They also factor in weather observations made over the last century or more.

 

"What seemed like an established truth that you cannot attribute a particular extreme weather event to climate change is less and less true," Seneviratne told Reuters.

 

FEELING THE HEAT

 

The clearest examples are found in the growing frequency and intensity of heat waves worldwide.

 

Scientists needed only days to identify climate change as the key culprit in this year's record temperatures in Siberia, with extreme heat drying out forests and peat across the Russian tundra, leading to massive wildfires.

 

Climate change links have also been found in the simultaneous summer heat waves that hit Europe, Japan and North America in 2018. Studies found that the chances of these events happening together would have been near zero without the industrial-era rise in planet-warming carbon emissions.

 

"When it comes to heat waves, we see that climate change is an absolute game-changer," said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford who has helped to pioneer the field of attribution science.

 

As a heat wave hit the U.S. West Coast last month, Earth saw a new record high temperature of 54.4 Celsius (130 Fahrenheit) in Death Valley, which sits below sea level in California's Mojave Desert. Weeks later, the region was still broiling, with the mercury soaring Sunday to a new record of 49C for nearby Los Angeles County.

 

"It's not so much that climate change is destabilising historical weather patterns," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California. "In many cases, it's amplifying them."

 

Hotter temperatures in turn sap the air of humidity and dry out forest and brush on land, creating perfect conditions for wildfires. In California, "the fires that we're seeing are larger, and faster moving, and more intense than those you could have expected historically," Swain said.

 

But attribution science has not explained everything. For example, researchers do not yet fully understand Europe's heat waves.

 

"In Western Europe, the increase in heat waves is much stronger than the models predict, and we have no clue why," said Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, an attribution science expert at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

 

WIND, RAIN AND FLOODS

 

As average global temperatures have risen by about 1C since pre-industrial times, changes in the atmosphere and oceans are also leading to more intense storms.

 

Hurricanes overall are getting stronger and spinning slower, as they pick up energy from the heat in the oceans. Researchers at the University of Bristol in the west of England published a study last month that found that climate change could make extreme hurricane rainfall in the Caribbean five times more likely, without rapid cuts in emissions.

 

In the United States, warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico boosted Hurricane Laura to a category 4 storm in the last hours before it slammed into Louisiana with 150 mile-per-hour (240 kph) winds. Governor John Bel Edwards described it as the most powerful hurricane to strike the state, surpassing even Katrina in 2005.

 

Tropical cyclones spinning out from the Indian Ocean are showing similar patterns. The region has long been considered a hot spot for cyclones, with some of the deadliest storms in recent history churning through the Bay of Bengal before slamming into India or Bangladesh.

 

Exceptionally high surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, associated with climate change, helped Cyclone Amphan grow into a Category 5 storm in a record 18 hours before it tore into the Indian state of West Bengal in May, scientists say.

 

The following month, Cyclone Nisarga, initially forecast to be the first to batter Mumbai since 1948, made landfall 100 km (65 miles) south of the city, with winds gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph).

 

"Both of the cyclones were unprecedented," said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. "If we go back to what led to these kinds of extreme events, what we see is that very warm ocean temperatures have played a major role."

 

Those warm ocean temperatures are also likely contributing to extreme rainfall and flooding in China, which this summer suffered its most punishing flood season in three decades.

 

"The extreme rainfall events are going to become more extreme. That is something we feel pretty confident about," said Shang-Ping Xie, a climate scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California.

 

Africa is feeling this now, following torrential rains and severe flooding. Tens of thousands have been left homeless by flooding from the Nile in Sudan. And in Senegal, more rain fell on a single day on Saturday than the country would usually see during three months of the rainy season, the government said.

 

"There's a large and growing body of evidence that is telling us that human-caused climate change is affecting extreme events," said James Kossin, a climate scientist at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "It's very rare that this is happening in a helpful way."    

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-09-10

 

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[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

"We are seeing the emergence of some signals that would have had almost no chance of happening without human-induced climate change," said Sonia Seneviratne, a climate scientist at Swiss university ETH Zurich.

[AussieBob18]

LOL.  Here they come again. 

Greta and her chicken little fools are making a comeback?

Has the pandemic's pandemic stopped?

 

[Lacessit]

It really is simple thermodynamics. The heat we manufacture burning fossil fuels has to go somewhere, it ends up in the oceans. Any meteorologist will tell you the warmer the water, the more intense the hurricane/typhoon/cyclone.

Of course, the denialists with zero scientific training ignore that. Just like they ignore the fact the Larsen Ice Shelf and Greenland ice caps are melting at unprecedented rates, business as usual.

[thaibeachlovers]

It's warmer this winter. Very nice and I like it. If it is caused by people driving their petrol cars, keep it up- the warmer the better.

[Sujo]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's warmer this winter. Very nice and I like it. If it is caused by people driving their petrol cars, keep it up- the warmer the better.

As long as you are happy, sod anyone else.

[Sujo]

43 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

LOL.  Here they come again. 

Greta and her chicken little fools are making a comeback?

Has the pandemic's pandemic stopped?

 

Where did you study climate change.

[Lacessit]

10 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's warmer this winter. Very nice and I like it. If it is caused by people driving their petrol cars, keep it up- the warmer the better.

Let me invite you to the next round of Australian bushfires.

[Orton Rd]

3 minutes ago, Sujo said:

Where did you study climate change.

You don't have to study it much to know Greta and the climate alarmists are basing their arguments on false research, lies and emotions. Co2 in the atmosphere gets rounded up to 0.04% about 97% of that is natural. The oft quoted lie that 96% of scientists agree that global warming is directly linked to human activity was shown to be false. When the thousands of papers published from 1991-2011 were looked at by other, genuine researchers, the number was found to be less than 1% Of course that did not stop them quoting this nonsense for years and Greta did not stop with the hysterics.

[AndyFoxy]

23 minutes ago, Sujo said:

As long as you are happy, sod anyone else.

That’s my policy.

[thaibeachlovers]

51 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Let me invite you to the next round of Australian bushfires.

Time you learned what chainsaws are for and burnoffs to remove the flamable undergrowth.

Have a nice day, and bye.

Edited September 10, 2020 by thaibeachlovers

[Sujo]

21 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Time you learned what chainsaws are for and burnoffs to remove the flamable undergrowth.

Have a nice day, and bye.

Time you learnt thats not possible. Bye.

[Chassa]

8 hours ago, Sujo said:

8 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Time you learned what chainsaws are for and burnoffs to remove the flamable undergrowth.

Have a nice day, and bye.

Time you learnt thats not possible. Bye.

No bushfires in the NT because the Aboriginies burn the undergrowth ever year.

[bodga]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

This spate of wild weather is consistent with climate change

rubbish  more  like the destruction of the natural environment by man,stripping out forests then moaning when theres massive erosion and  flooding, also they burn the  forests to help clear, insanity

[bodga]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

what we see is that very warm ocean temperatures have played a major role."

yes and when that last  happened evolution went crazy and produced incredible sized animals/trees/insects

[bodga]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

could

might ,perhaps,  maybe, but never say   "WILL" hedging their bets

[scammed]

10 hours ago, Lacessit said:

It really is simple thermodynamics. The heat we manufacture burning fossil fuels has to go somewhere, it ends up in the oceans. Any meteorologist will tell you the warmer the water, the more intense the hurricane/typhoon/cyclone.

Of course, the denialists with zero scientific training ignore that. Just like they ignore the fact the Larsen Ice Shelf and Greenland ice caps are melting at unprecedented rates, business as usual.

any physicist will tell you work require energy gradients,

and the warmer the planet the less difference between poles and equator, leading to less intense hurricane/typhoon/cyclone.

of course, the hysteria mob ignore the fact that jakobshavn glacier is growing at unprecedented rates,

inane drivel as usual

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145185/major-greenland-glacier-is-growing

[Credo]

40 minutes ago, scammed said:

any physicist will tell you work require energy gradients,

and the warmer the planet the less difference between poles and equator, leading to less intense hurricane/typhoon/cyclone.

of course, the hysteria mob ignore the fact that jakobshavn glacier is growing at unprecedented rates,

inane drivel as usual

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145185/major-greenland-glacier-is-growing

I always admire the persistence of the deniers.  So you found ONE glacier that is growing.  Now compare it to the huge number that are decreasing.   

Now take a look at the worst fires ever in CA, then take a look at the previous years that were record breaking.   Most are in the past several years.   

Now look at Arizona, July was the hottest month EVER recorded, but it was beaten by August, which is now the record for hottest month ever.   Oh, and it is the driest summer ever as well.   

But you stick with your ONE glacier that is growing.   

 

[forehandplus]

45 minutes ago, scammed said:

any physicist will tell you work require energy gradients,

and the warmer the planet the less difference between poles and equator, leading to less intense hurricane/typhoon/cyclone.

of course, the hysteria mob ignore the fact that jakobshavn glacier is growing at unprecedented rates,

inane drivel as usual

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145185/major-greenland-glacier-is-growing

Hurricanes are not caused by the differential between temperatures at the poles and at the equator. They are caused by the accumulated heat in the oceans and sea. Hotter oceans and seas mean more powerful hurricanes.

[scammed]

1 minute ago, forehandplus said:

Hurricanes are not caused by the differential between temperatures at the poles and at the equator. They are caused by the accumulated heat in the oceans and sea. Hotter oceans and seas mean more powerful hurricanes.

no, if everything was of equal temperature, it couldnt happen

[forehandplus]

Just now, scammed said:

no, if everything was of equal temperature, it couldnt happen

But temperatures between the atmosphere and the oceans aren't equal. Clouds form, rain falls, and winds will blow because the higher you go, the lower the temperature. Global warming isn't going to change that.

[scammed]

8 minutes ago, forehandplus said:

If you look at the page from which that graph was taken, you will find that the change in amount of acreage burned was specifically ascribed to a massive increase in fire prevention.

so you mean to say that the fires isnt correlated to co2, but rather correlated to

management of the forests ?

and that the imagined link to co2 is just a spurious correlation

https://www.fs.fed.us/research/sustain/docs/indicators/indicator-316.pdf

Edited September 11, 2020 by scammed

[scammed]

13 minutes ago, forehandplus said:

But temperatures between the atmosphere and the oceans aren't equal. Clouds form, rain falls, and winds will blow because the higher you go, the lower the temperature. Global warming isn't going to change that.

a warmer climate will none the less lead to less differences

in temperature on various locations, and that in turn will

lead to less energy that can be extracted

[Sujo]

1 hour ago, Chassa said:

No bushfires in the NT because the Aboriginies burn the undergrowth ever year.

Are you sure?

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-30/nt-bushfires-severe-2020-conditions-explained/12610178

[nobodysfriend]

Scientists predicted what would happen years ago already . Only their predictions are becoming reality much faster than anticipated .

This is not the ' beginning of the end ' , it is just the ' end of the beginning ' .

[Scott]

A post commenting on sources has been removed.   It is a comment on moderation and is not open to discussion in the forum.  

 

[digger70]

19 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

We are seeing the emergence of some signals that would have had almost no chance of happening without human-induced climate change," said Sonia Seneviratne, a climate scientist at Swiss university ETH Zurich.

Have they Never heard of the Ice Age Phenomena? 

 https://www.livescience.com/65927-has-earth-been-this-hot-before.html

[forehandplus]

5 hours ago, scammed said:

so you mean to say that the fires isnt correlated to co2, but rather correlated to

management of the forests ?

and that the imagined link to co2 is just a spurious correlation

https://www.fs.fed.us/research/sustain/docs/indicators/indicator-316.pdf

Your figures are for the USA. The USA is not the world.

[Donga]

"Both of the cyclones were unprecedented," said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. "

Sorry, but as soon as I read "unprecedented" they lose me. Pity "climate scientists" don't read history.

Last Aussie bushfire season was also full of false "unprecedenteds" and now it's California's turn again.

Pity Climate Change zealots also support importing US wood chips to Europe, so they can meet their renewable targets, in lieu of ramping up nuclear. In contravention of a growing number of real environmentalists and the consensus of nuclear physicists.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/4/18216045/renewable-energy-wood-pellets-biomass

 

[forehandplus]

55 minutes ago, Donga said:

"Both of the cyclones were unprecedented," said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. "

Sorry, but as soon as I read "unprecedented" they lose me. Pity "climate scientists" don't read history.

Last Aussie bushfire season was also full of false "unprecedenteds" and now it's California's turn again.

Pity Climate Change zealots also support importing US wood chips to Europe, so they can meet their renewable targets, in lieu of ramping up nuclear. In contravention of a growing number of real environmentalists and the consensus of nuclear physicists.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/4/18216045/renewable-energy-wood-pellets-biomass

 

Wrong. For one thing among many, swamps burned. That was unprecedented. And it shows how dire the situation was in Australia.

But "climate change zealots" as you call them, or whom most people call scientists, don't support this practice. DId you read the article? It clearly states that they are ardently opposed to the practice. It's the timber industry that enthusiastically support it. 

Edited September 11, 2020 by forehandplus