Is Another New Coup Coming?

[Gary74]

Thai friend told me another new coup is going to come soon. What do think?

[PhilHarries]

Anything is possible, in Thailand expect the unexpected.

But who carries out the coup?

Is Sondthi going to topple the government he installed? The reasons he trots out to support it would make interesting reading.

Toxin and his pals? Possible but unlikely as his pals have been largely neutralised. If it does come about it is likely to get nasty.

Be interesting to know who your friend is and what his sources are. Anyone can make wild stabs in the dark and once in a while they can be correct that don't mean to say they are the new Nostradamus.

[Pink Mist]

thats all nostradamus did (shots in the dark), his followers interpreted the situation to fit the prediction

[dumspero]

Agreed, who says this and what are the sources?

Oh, by the way, nobody has yet bashed the US on this post so I'll start it off. If there is a coup, the US is to blame because of its covert policy toward China in the early 1900's. If there is no coup, then the US is to blame because of something else, say its non-intervention in Africa in the 1800's.

[raro]

I was sitting next to a Thai top banker at a luncheon a couple of weeks ago. His prediction was just after Songkran for a new coup by Sondhi because of frustration with the present government.

It didn't happen yet, which doesn't mean that it won't happen. As Phil said, the unexpected is more likely to happen than the expected.

[Donnyboy]

this year will definately be very interesting anyway

[buriramboy]

Agreed, who says this and what are the sources?

Oh, by the way, nobody has yet bashed the US on this post so I'll start it off. If there is a coup, the US is to blame because of its covert policy toward China in the early 1900's. If there is no coup, then the US is to blame because of something else, say its non-intervention in Africa in the 1800's.

as soon as everyone just accepts that the merkins are to blame for everything, the world will be a lot better place, and back on topic, i personaly think there will be another coup of some kind and yes the merkins will be to blame.

BB

[Donnyboy]

Agreed, who says this and what are the sources?

Oh, by the way, nobody has yet bashed the US on this post so I'll start it off. If there is a coup, the US is to blame because of its covert policy toward China in the early 1900's. If there is no coup, then the US is to blame because of something else, say its non-intervention in Africa in the 1800's.

I feel my girlfriends quote would be most appropiate right now.............

you tink tooo muut

[scousemouse]

Thai friend told me another new coup is going to come soon. What do think?

If there is I've got 2 wishes , no bloodshed and that it is during term time .

[soundman]

Thers's gonna be a coup allright. Ypu all had better watch out!! 30 something coup's in the last 50 odd years. Satistically speaking, should be one within the next year!!

Cheers,

Soundman.

Disclaimer: This post is based on no facts whatsover. Only heresay and rumour.

[larvidchr]

Being an Viking from now a christian land, but beliving in the bliss of Valhalla, it is nice to be an expat in a buddhist country run by a muslim general, now what could be more natural.

No coup for me please

[PhilHarries]

Disclaimer: This post is based on no facts whatsover. Only heresay and rumour.

You mean it's like all the others.

Kosher info straight from Pattaya Fred.

[jumnien]

This is all getting rather coup-coup.

[chownah]

The rumor I'm starting is that there was a coup after Songkran but it failed so miserably and had so few followers that noone really noticed. What happend was the coup leaders showed up at the Parliament building and the door keeper asked why they wanted to come in and they lost their nerve and fled.

Edited May 1, 2007 by chownah

[soundman]

Disclaimer: This post is based on no facts whatsover. Only heresay and rumour.

You mean it's like all the others.

Kosher info straight from Pattaya Fred.

Yeah that's who I think I heard it from. or maybe his name was Dave....

Soundman.

[toptuan]

Oh, by the way, nobody has yet bashed the US on this post so I'll start it off. If there is a coup, the US is to blame because of its covert policy toward China in the early 1900's. If there is no coup, then the US is to blame because of something else, say its non-intervention in Africa in the 1800's.

Yup, damned if ya do, damned if ya don't. Thanks for getting that outta the way.

A couple of observations:

1) As a US citizen, I was disappointed to see the US armed services do its usual COBRA exercises with Thailand's military this year. There was some initial hesitation, but they decided for it anyway, at the last minute. I'm afraid it could be interpreted to Thais and other countries as a tacit support of a military dictatorship, despite the fact that we held up some foreign aid. This could smooth the way for another one.

2) Just came back from a month in the USA, and there is a lot of grass-roots heightened awareness that we've become the "bad boy" of international geopolitics, in the world's eyes. Until lately, I believe the average American was oblivious to the fact. Living abroad, it's been very noticeable to me as many of you other expats. It's starting to seep in, domestically, as of late. This may add to the Republicans' uphill battle in the next election.

OK, back on topic.....

[Jimjim]

Where's Mobi D'ark or whatever his name is. He knows all about the coups, predicted the last one, and is quite the prognosticator.

He's got voodoo on his side.

[Jai Dee]

Sonthi and Surayud: same bed, different dreams

If you believe some of the juicy political tales being bandied about by so-called "insiders", it's very likely there is no love lost between Premier Surayud Chulanont and chairman of the Council for National Security, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin.

But if you ask the "experts" whether, when push comes to shove, the latter is ready to exercise his power as the coup leader and ease out the former and take over Government House himself, the answer is most likely a hesitant "perhaps not".

The real "inside stories" - and there are usually many layers to such claims to exclusive insight - have it that the country's two top generals aren't really at loggerheads, as some recent rumours tend to suggest.

But some members of the CNS, including one or two outspoken generals close to the Army chief, have made no secret of their disappointment with what they see as a laggard prime minister who has not pinned down ex-premier Thaksin Shinnawatra or moved the government forward to blunt criticism from several quarters against the coup-makers.

Sonthi has come under growing pressure from some of his own right-hand men to hand the premier an ultimatum - shape up or ship out. But the coup leader himself realises that things could get worse if he were to take over the premiership himself.

Unofficial talks to persuade former prime minister Anand Panyarachun to come back a third time to lead the country after a military takeover have hit a brick wall. Anand, determined to distance himself as much as possible from such potentially damaging speculation, is said to have told Surayud that he won't take up the offer - and that the last thing he wanted was to make a bad political and military situation even worse.

It would be naive to suggest that Sonthi himself has not been toying with the idea - proposed either by overzealous aides or even concerned advisers - of wrapping up the issue by concurrently assuming the premiership himself. But he is also realistic enough to know that the road to hel_l could well be paved by good intentions.

The whole idea behind him asking his former boss to become premier after the September 2006 putsch was to create a safety valve - a buffer that he could lean on as a political wall and, at the same time, use as tangible proof that he hadn't staged the coup to attain a hidden political ambition.

Sonthi could nudge Surayud out and take over the premiership himself without too much fanfare. The soft-spoken - but not necessarily submissive - Surayud has gone on the record on several occasions as saying that he will step down unconditionally if asked. But Sonthi knows he would put himself in the firing line just as the political storm is brewing if he takes that short-cut to the top political post - even if it was his for the asking.

Sonthi has so far stuck to respectful gestures towards Surayud, occasionally injecting a slight tone of authority to gently remind the public that he retains the right to nominate and fire the prime minister. Surayud, on the other hand, has kept the chief coup-maker, his former right-hand man, at a proper, courteous distance. Sonthi's close aides may think otherwise but it is quite obvious to political observers that at this juncture Sonthi needs Surayud, more than Surayud needs him.

Despite the crescendo of dissenting voices from various quarters for the two generals to break the current deadlock, neither Sonthi nor Surayud can really afford to take things into their own hands and discard the other from the overall scheme of things. It would be calamitous for both of them not to realise that time isn't on their side and there aren't many viable options ahead. The brief remaining part of the tortuous political journey may be even more risky than the beginning of it, but the only practical direction is to make plans to curb any possible violent reaction to decisions to be made on two upcoming and crucial dates: May 30, when the Constitution Tribunal will decide whether to dissolve the two major political parties, and September 3, the tentative date when the referendum on the constitution is held.

The third moment of truth - the next election day - will relieve the two generals of the most challenging assignment of their lives.

In other words, even if Sonthi and Surayud are tempted to break ranks with each other at the instigation of their respective advisers, the cold reality of politics on the ground dictates that the two generals will have to stick it out together.

To turn an old Chinese saying on its head, the two may have different dreams but they have no choice but to continue to share the same bed - even if it means they sleep in the back-to-back position.

Editorial Opinion by Suthichai Yoon - The Nation - 03 May 2007