Time is running out to enact any trade deal with UK: EU lawmakers

[Chelseafan]

7 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

  Save 350 Million quid a week 

 

That's deluded.

We will continue to pay into the EU for some years to come due to the commitments we still have

If we are going to continue to trade there is no doubt going to be a cost to this, economists believe this could be as low as 1billion and as much as 5billion a year. As companies have to adapt there is added cost to their bottom line which means prices are going to go up and GDP will falter. Estimates are between 1 and 10% of total GDP,  in real-terms the cost could be around £400+ per person per year.

 

Even if we did save £350m a week, how will this affect you ? Do you really think that this will be plouged back into the NHS or that your taxes will be lowered ?

 

I'm sure in the long-term we will find our way but not before taking a huge dent to the economy which is also reeling from Covid.

 

 

[dunroaming]

I suspect that Barnier will throw Boris a minor concession or two so the PM can claim a  trade deal victory. ???? 

[uncleP]

18 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 

I  believe that this country's future is better with the EU than without it. As we are no longer a member that means an equitable trade deal.

 

That does not mean bending over and taking it!

 

It also does not mean the UK saying to the EU "this is what we want; take it or leave it!' 

 

Will we survive without a EU trade deal? Maybe; eventually. But how long will it take to find markets to replace the 43% of our exports which currently go to the EU?

 

What will happen to the British economy and British jobs until we do replace that market; or, worst of all, if we never do?

We will become a tax haven.  The EU's biggest  fear ????

[RayC]

12 hours ago, 473geo said:

You are not coming across as an original thinker thus making your comments less convincing more plagiarism

You are correct that I am not an original thinker, but you are flattering yourself if you think that rehashing the same tired out cliques - without any evidence to support them - brings anything new to the debate.

[7by7]

18 hours ago, kingdong said:

They need us more than we need them.

 How so?

18 hours ago, kingdong said:

Our present largest export market,just watch the uk pull finger when we leave.the world is rapidly changing,and the uk throwing off its eu shackles will once again be a country the rest of the world will emulate and aspire to copy.

So where are we going to sell all the stuff we currently sell to the EU?

 

For sure, we'll still do some trade with them; but if we leave with no deal then WTO tariffs will mean the goods we both export to and import from the EU will be more expensive.

 

Remember, also, Japan’s Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu has said Japan signed the deal on the assumption that there would be a deal and so Japanese car manufacturers could continue to split their manufacturing between their UK and EU factories. What will happen to the Japanese deal if there is no deal with the EU and WTO tariffs have to be paid every time parts travel between the two? Not to mention the mountains of paperwork!

 

You may believe that other countries will want to "emulate and aspire to copy" a country whose Prime Minister is willing to break international law and tear up a treaty he signed just a few months ago; but I very much doubt it. 

 

18 hours ago, kingdong said:

Especially if we get tough on all the benefits they,re currently claiming,

 

As proven to you previously with figures from the anti immigration, anti EU Migration Watch, most EU nationals in the UK are either working and paying tax or the family members of same.

 

Like non EU/EEA national migrants, they also cannot claim income related benefits unless they satisfy the habitual residence test. 

 

The myth that migrants, even EU migrants, enter the UK and are immediately given a house and a bag of cash is just that; a myth.

[7by7]

18 hours ago, 473geo said:

You seriously think no goods will cross the channel and UK will be isolated?  There will just be a 'border' you seriously think the EU will cease all trade with the UK on 1st of jan 2021 ???? The negotiations are not about movement of goods but about who controls it!!!

 Considering the copious amounts of hyperbole spouted by Brexiteers on these pages; a little it from myself is warranted!

 

However, getting back to reality I repeat:

3 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

For sure, we'll still do some trade with them; but if we leave with no deal then WTO tariffs will mean the goods we both export to and import from the EU will be more expensive.

 

Remember, also, Japan’s Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu has said Japan signed the deal on the assumption that there would be a deal and so Japanese car manufacturers could continue to split their manufacturing between their UK and EU factories. What will happen to the Japanese deal if there is no deal with the EU and WTO tariffs have to be paid every time parts travel between the two? Not to mention the mountains of paperwork!

 It will be easier for the EU to source the products they currently buy from us elsewhere; especially if WTO tariffs on trade between the UK and EU mean they'll be cheaper that way; a lot easier than it's been for us to find new markets for the stuff we currently sell to them!

 

Every trade deal announced so far has merely been a continuation of the one we previously had as an EU member.

 

Except, possibly, Japan's; but that mainly just leaves us the crumbs the EU didn't want.

 

Plus, after Truss' soy sauce clanger, it now turns out that: Brexit: Liz Truss secures tariff wins with her Japan trade deal – for products UK doesn’t export

Quote

Just 10 of 9,444 products will enjoy lower taxes, experts say, a list of obscure items such as birds’ eggs, raw hides, fur skins, handbags and ultra-strong spirits of at least 90 per cent alcohol......

Yet Ms Truss claimed the “historic” Japan deal had achieved “strong tariff reductions on key agricultural products like pork, beef and salmon [that] will benefit farmers and food exporters”.

 

[7by7]

19 hours ago, vinny41 said:

If the UK voters want a vote on the deal or wanted to cancel Brexit they should have requested through their local political parties that

they wanted their party not to field any candidates in their  constituencies and just leave the field open for an open contest between lib dems and the conservatives. It would mean that Non Conservative MP's that were elected before the election was announced with have to say goodbye to the gravy train of being a MP

 Of course, pro Brexit parties did stand down and give the Tories a clear run. Hang on; they didn't!

 

19 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Labour policy on Brexit was unclear as Labour wanted to renationizing a number of industries that outside the EU was a possibility inside the EU unlikely that would have taken place.

 Labour clearly stated in their manifesto that they would renegotiate Johnson's WA and then put it to the people in a referendum.

 

Although it is highly likely that just as Johnson's WA is 99% identical to May's, theirs would be also.

 

There is nothing in any EU law or regulation which prohibits or restricts state ownership.

 

However, under the right to property enshrined in the ECHR; which as I'm sure you know is nothing to do with the EU, the current owners of any company nationalised would have to be adequately and fairly compensated. So the process would be expensive.

 

19 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Carry on Posting I sure you will,

I have no issue just if your trying to  persuade the forum Brexiteers through your posts to change their position you have as much chance as Trump has in getting relected next January

Thank you for your permission; which I don't need anyway.

 

BTW, the US election was last week and Trump lost.

 

[7by7]

18 hours ago, 473geo said:

Here is another thought for you guys, covid has highlighted the ability of a workforce to work from home.

 

Quote

According to Make UK (formerly EEF), UK manufacturing currently:

employs 2.7 million people – earning an average of £32,500

contributes 11% of GVA

accounts for 45% of total exports – totalling £275bn

represents 69% of business research and development (R&D)

provides 13% of business investment

(source)

Quote

In 2018/2019 the workforce in the agriculture sector was made up of approximately 428 thousand people. 

(source)

 Please explain how those people, and others in similar situations, will be able to work from home in your post Brexit UK utopia.

 

19 hours ago, 473geo said:

Part of the cheaper outsourced 'overseas services' was the comparable cost of office space, also salaries.

I predict a review of these outsourced overseas corporate services with the possibility to bring them back 'in house', with more part time homeworking roles created.

 Never happen; unless British workers are prepared to work for the wages those making clothes in S.E. Asia workshops or manning the phones in Indian call centres receive!

 

In the UK home workers are legally entitled to the minimum wage; but maybe you want to abolish that?

[7by7]

7 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

20 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Out of interest do you know how many posts you make each month on Brexit between 3,000-5,000

Probably even more than that with his other names and he then likes his own posts. That is narcissistic of the highest form????.

 

If you believe that I am breaking the forum rules by posting under multiple identities, take it to the Mods.

 

 This absurd accusation is among many of your and @evadgib's posts which are indistinguishable. 

 

Are you perchance related?

 

 

[7by7]

5 hours ago, transam said:

<snip>

You could always emigrate to an EU country of your dreams

 

You could always come back to live in the UK now we are free of what you believe to be the shackles of a Franco/German hegemony!

[vinny41]

Crushed by Brexit': how Labour lost the election

Labour Is On Your Side” took over – though one insider laments with hindsight that voters in leave seats who felt the party had betrayed them over Brexit 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/21/crushed-by-brexit-how-labour-lost-the-election

 

Labour Leavers unconvinced by Corbyn’s Brexit policy

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/04/labour-leavers-unconvinced-corbyns-brexit-policy

[7by7]

1 hour ago, uncleP said:

We will become a tax haven.  The EU's biggest  fear ????

 Whilst I am sure that the likes of Johnson, Rees-Mogg and others of their ilk would welcome such; I seriously doubt it.

 

Even were it to happen, why would that be the EU's biggest fear? There are plenty of tax havens already; such as the RoI. Which in case you haven't noticed is a member of the EU!

[7by7]

4 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Crushed by Brexit': how Labour lost the election

Labour Is On Your Side” took over – though one insider laments with hindsight that voters in leave seats who felt the party had betrayed them over Brexit 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/21/crushed-by-brexit-how-labour-lost-the-election

 

Labour Leavers unconvinced by Corbyn’s Brexit policy

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/04/labour-leavers-unconvinced-corbyns-brexit-policy

 I have asked the following of others, but they have all failed to answer. Maybe you can.

 

Labour's share of the vote fell by 7.8%; but the Tories only increased by 1.2%. How come?

 

If the 'lost' Labour voters voted Tory;  the Tories must have lost many of their own voters!

 

 

[uncleP]

15 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 Whilst I am sure that the likes of Johnson, Rees-Mogg and others of their ilk would welcome such; I seriously doubt it.

 

Even were it to happen, why would that be the EU's biggest fear? There are plenty of tax havens already; such as the RoI. Which in case you haven't noticed is a member of the EU!

Yup but these are only tiny economies. Could you imagine the world's 5th biggest as a tax haven? I too don't see it happening but it would offset the 6%.

[vinny41]

12 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 I have asked the following of others, but they have all failed to answer. Maybe you can.

 

Labour's share of the vote fell by 7.8%; but the Tories only increased by 1.2%. How come?

 

If the 'lost' Labour voters voted Tory;  the Tories must have lost many of their own voters!

 

 

Your making the assumption that the -7.8% of Labour vote share was 100% leavers the yougov article also states that Labour remain voters prefer the lib dems policy on brexit to Labour policy lib dems vote share increased by 4.2%

Tories remain voters were spilt vote Tory get Brexit Don't vote Tory let Corbyn into no 10

[Chelseafan]

2 hours ago, uncleP said:

We will become a tax haven.  The EU's biggest  fear ????

 

I suspect that's part of the negociations when they talk about companies operating on an even keel?

 

[CorpusChristie]

34 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 I have asked the following of others, but they have all failed to answer. Maybe you can.

 

Labour's share of the vote fell by 7.8%; but the Tories only increased by 1.2%. How come?

 

If the 'lost' Labour voters voted Tory;  the Tories must have lost many of their own voters!

 

 

 

    Maybe they voted Lib Dem or Greens 

[7by7]

32 minutes ago, uncleP said:

Yup but these are only tiny economies. Could you imagine the world's 5th biggest as a tax haven? I too don't see it happening but it would offset the 6%.

 No, I cannot see the UK becoming a tax haven; but it was not I who brought the idea up!

 

2 hours ago, uncleP said:

We will become a tax haven.  The EU's biggest  fear ????

 

[7by7]

22 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Your making the assumption that the -7.8% of Labour vote share was 100% leavers

 I am making no such assumption; but from their posts it is obvious that others such as @transam are: hence my question!

 

25 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

the yougov article also states that Labour remain voters prefer the lib dems policy on brexit to Labour policy lib dems vote share increased by 4.2%

Indeed; you know that, I know that; but many others here don't!

 

26 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Tories remain voters were spilt vote Tory get Brexit Don't vote Tory let Corbyn into no 10

 

Or vote LibDem, I doubt all of their increase came from Labour Remainers. Reckon there were some Tories who took Heseltine's advice: General election 2019: Lifelong Tories should back Lib Dems, says Heseltine

[7by7]

18 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

    Maybe they voted Lib Dem or Greens 

 See @vinny41's post and my response.

 

Well done, though, for being a Brexiteer with the wit to answer.

[vinny41]

6 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 I am making no such assumption; but from their posts it is obvious that others such as @transam are: hence my question!

 

Indeed; you know that, I know that; but many others here don't!

 

 

Or vote LibDem, I doubt all of their increase came from Labour Remainers. Reckon there were some Tories who took Heseltine's advice: General election 2019: Lifelong Tories should back Lib Dems, says Heseltine

I would guess that most TVF members on here that  received £900,000 from the  EU for farming subsidies. over a 10 year period might also  have voted for the Lib dems, However I suspect there isn't many TVF members here that have received  £900,000 from the  EU for farming subsidies

[kingdong]

2 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 How so?

So where are we going to sell all the stuff we currently sell to the EU?

 

For sure, we'll still do some trade with them; but if we leave with no deal then WTO tariffs will mean the goods we both export to and import from the EU will be more expensive.

 

Remember, also, Japan’s Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu has said Japan signed the deal on the assumption that there would be a deal and so Japanese car manufacturers could continue to split their manufacturing between their UK and EU factories. What will happen to the Japanese deal if there is no deal with the EU and WTO tariffs have to be paid every time parts travel between the two? Not to mention the mountains of paperwork!

 

You may believe that other countries will want to "emulate and aspire to copy" a country whose Prime Minister is willing to break international law and tear up a treaty he signed just a few months ago; but I very much doubt it. 

 

 

As proven to you previously with figures from the anti immigration, anti EU Migration Watch, most EU nationals in the UK are either working and paying tax or the family members of same.

 

Like non EU/EEA national migrants, they also cannot claim income related benefits unless they satisfy the habitual residence test. 

 

The myth that migrants, even EU migrants, enter the UK and are immediately given a house and a bag of cash is just that; a myth.

They may very well be working in gig economies,zero hour contracts,and " self employed " and not earning enough to support their selves and families,then the state has to support them inrent credits tax credits erc etc so they,re not only economically worthless,but a drain on the uks finances,reports and statistics?these can and are written to suit any agenda the author has in mind.

[DaveCW]

On 11/7/2020 at 5:39 AM, welovesundaysatspace said:

Especially for those who claimed it would be the easiest deal in history, negotiated over an afternoon tea, having the cake and eating it. 
 

I still think there will be some sort of barebones deal, followed be an extension. But I wouldn’t mind no deal, so that Brexiteers get the full damage of their nonsense. 

WOW - are folk still spewing this stuff - There were a lot of predictions on both sides (Remember?), but I'm not that small minded to get into that. I think any reasonable (thinking) individual would have seen that comment being used in an environment where BOTH parties were willing to negotiate in good faith given the alignment that already exists in terms of standards etc.

 

However, when you have one party being totally unrealistic in their demands, that effectively cancels the democratic (sovereign) vote of the UK people to leave the greater influence of the EU, then obviously there will be problems in negotiating. Remember these negotiations are about a TRADE deal, not a political alliance. But the EU don't see it that way, hence the issues.

 

On a general note, I wonder how some folk would expect the UK negotiators to deal with these demands - give in and accept them? - Really, just like giving into a misbehaving and demanding child. Unfortunately that strategy does not work in the real world. I'm also astonished how some folk give greater allegiances to foreign, unaccountable bureaucrats, than they do to their own countryfolk. And worst of all, actually wish misfortune on their country, how bazar.

 

 

[kingdong]

49 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 No, I cannot see the UK becoming a tax haven; but it was not I who brought the idea up!

 

 

Thats the eus biggest fear,that will become a safe haven as europe tears itself apart.

[welovesundaysatspace]

1 hour ago, DaveCW said:

WOW - are folk still spewing this stuff

Of course. Because everyone easily could see what nonsense it was. Everyone with at least a tiny little bit of knowledge, that is, so not your usual Brexiteer. They bought into all that nonsense. So we are rubbing it in their face, as we have been mocking them for the past four years or so. Brexit has been great entertainment. 

 

Quote

However, when you have one party being totally unrealistic in their demands, that effectively cancels the democratic (sovereign) vote of the UK people to leave the greater influence of the EU, then obviously there will be problems in negotiating. Remember these negotiations are about a TRADE deal, not a political alliance. But the EU don't see it that way, hence the issues.

 

On a general note, I wonder how some folk would expect the UK negotiators to deal with these demands - give in and accept them? - Really, just like giving into a misbehaving and demanding child. Unfortunately that strategy does not work in the real world. I'm also astonished how some folk give greater allegiances to foreign, unaccountable bureaucrats, than they do to their own countryfolk. And worst of all, actually wish misfortune on their country, how bazar.

You’ve been told from the beginning on what you would get and what not. Remember the cake that you wanted to have and eat it, and everyone told you:

nope, not gonna happen. So stop the whining. You may eat the cake that’s on offer or you may leave with just your fish. And if you think that’s unfair, or unreasonable, or not respecting your sovereignty, or against what some of your folks voted for, then that’s not our problem and nothing we care about. Do some more trade deals with developing African countries, I’m sure they give you all that. That’s how free markets work. 

Edited November 9, 2020 by welovesundaysatspace

[RayC]

1 hour ago, DaveCW said:

 

However, when you have one party being totally unrealistic in their demands, that effectively cancels the democratic (sovereign) vote of the UK people to leave the greater influence of the EU, then obviously there will be problems in negotiating.

Yet again this is supposed unreasonableness on the part of the EU is presented as some sort of a priori truth, which requires no further justification,  as opposed to what it actually is, namely unsubstantiated opinion.

 

I can't understand why an issue as insignificant as fishing has been allowed to escalate. Having said that, imo the EU should change its stance: Notwithstanding any contractual obligations with individual EU fishing companies, the UK has a point and it is unreasonable of the EU to expect the CFP to continue unaltered post-transition.

 

On the matter of state aid, the opposite is true. How can the UK expect to trade in the single market under more favourable terms and conditions than those that currently exist? There are rules governing the use of state aid which EU member states have to abide by. If they break these rules then they can be sanctioned by the ECJ. Why should the UK expect to be exempt from these conditions if it wants to trade in the single market?

 

1 hour ago, DaveCW said:

Remember these negotiations are about a TRADE deal, not a political alliance. But the EU don't see it that way, hence the issues.

Post transition, the UK will no longer be obliged to enact EU legislation into UK law, so in what way will it be a political alliance? Where is the evidence to suggest that the EU will have - or desires - any influence over UK domestic policy post transition?

1 hour ago, DaveCW said:

On a general note, I wonder how some folk would expect the UK negotiators to deal with these demands - give in and accept them?

Just negotiating without the chest-beating rhetoric from UK government ministers would be a start.

1 hour ago, DaveCW said:

I'm also astonished how some folk give greater allegiances to foreign, unaccountable bureaucrats, than they do to their own countryfolk.

So I should disregard my feeling that - on the whole - 'the other side' make the more rational argument just because I was born in a particular place? 

 

The comment about "... unaccountable bureaucrats.." is just nonsense. Barnier is not a latter-day Napoleon. He is employed by the European Commission, who take instructions from - and are accountable to - the European Council, The Council of Ministers and the European Parliament: The latter body is directly elected by the public in the EU, whilst the other two bodies consist of Heads of State and ministers from the individual member states, all of whom were elected in free democratic elections. 

 

1 hour ago, DaveCW said:

And worst of all, actually wish misfortune on their country, how bazar.

 

 

I don't wish misfortune on my own country. A thriving UK is in my individual best interests. I live in London; most of my assets are in the UK. I want the UK to succeed, but I don't accept that I have to blindly get behind every (in)action made by this government.

 

I am not accusing you of holding this view, but it is clear from comments made on this forum that there are Brits who are simply pro-Brexit not just because they are anti-EU, and feel that the UK would be better off going it alone, but because they are anti-European and wish to see European nations fail.

[7by7]

2 hours ago, vinny41 said:

I would guess that most TVF members on here that  received £900,000 from the  EU for farming subsidies. over a 10 year period might also  have voted for the Lib dems, However I suspect there isn't many TVF members here that have received  £900,000 from the  EU for farming subsidies

 

I doubt that many members in the UK have either; regardless of which political party they are members of, support or voted for last time.

 

None of which is relevant to my argument that many Tory Remainers may very well have voted LibDem last December.

[7by7]

2 hours ago, kingdong said:

They may very well be working in gig economies,zero hour contracts,and " self employed " and not earning enough to support their selves and families,then the state has to support them inrent credits tax credits erc etc so they,re not only economically worthless,but a drain on the uks finances,reports and statistics?these can and are written to suit any agenda the author has in mind.

 

What is it you failed to understand about "Like non EU/EEA national migrants, they also cannot claim income related benefits unless they satisfy the habitual residence test?"

[7by7]

2 hours ago, kingdong said:

Thats the eus biggest fear,that will become a safe haven as europe tears itself apart.

 

When did von de Leyen confide this remarkable information to you?

[473geo]

6 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 

 Please explain how those people, and others in similar situations, will be able to work from home in your post Brexit UK utopia.

 

 Never happen; unless British workers are prepared to work for the wages those making clothes in S.E. Asia workshops or manning the phones in Indian call centres receive!

 

In the UK home workers are legally entitled to the minimum wage; but maybe you want to abolish that?

My understanding is that many involved in agriculture work from home, where do you think they work in city?