How have Thailand and Cambodia kept Covid cases so low?

[BernieOnTour]

9 minutes ago, MRJOHNNY said:

Think you will find the U.K. have tested well over half of the population already, approx. 40 million plus tests completed to date, so the possibility of doing the same in Thailand whose population is about 3 million more than the U.K. is not beyond reality. 

And ... what did that testing change in the UK, if you look at the fatalities?

[Donga]

1 hour ago, Jake72 said:

 

Show me the science. I haven't seen any peer reviewed published studies confirming that masks, lockdowns and social distancing make any difference.

 

And please explain the difference in a flu virus/cold spreading and the covid virus spreading. Surely if you are not protected from the common cold, then you are also not protected from the covid virus.

 

Crack me up, Jake. Social distancing doesn't work, eh. How much distance you talking about? You think Covid travels through the air like a wraith?

On masks, there are studies, I recall one very good one from Japan. And here's a couple of reviews to assist, first one from MIT... https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/20/1009328/a-mask-mandate-could-have-saved-thousands/

And here's one that explains how they work... https://scitechdaily.com/covid-19-pandemic-could-be-stopped-if-at-least-70-of-the-public-wore-face-masks-consistently/

Many countries where they've been distancing and wearing masks have also experienced a sharp drop in flu deaths. Can you think why that would be?

[Locked in Ozzie]

How can a third world country have 0 deaths from Covid-19.

[KhaoYai]

I have never believed the figures Thailand puts out in relation to Covid 19 infections and deaths but it seems pretty obvious they've done much better than western countries - it would be difficult to hide a large increase in deaths.

 

I think a lot of the success is down to people's acceptance of restrictions.  I can't speak for all areas but once the pandemic became serious, people in the areas I am aware of seemed to behave responsibly.

 

Bars, restaurants and clubs were closed and even Songkran celebrations were cancelled and I didn't see any protests - it seems such restrictions were accepted as necessary.  Contrast that to here in the UK where people are complaining about not being able to go to the pub and that despite ALL the medical and scientific advice going against it, the government refuses to 'cancel Christmas'. 

 

I saw the behaviour in UK pubs when the first lockdown ended and the night before the second lockdown began - I fully understand why pubs have to be closed and I really don't understand why people have to visit each other this Christmas - surely we can do without it just once?

[Jake72]

13 minutes ago, Donga said:

 

Crack me up, Jake. Social distancing doesn't work, eh. How much distance you talking about? You think Covid travels through the air like a wraith?

On masks, there are studies, I recall one very good one from Japan. And here's a couple of reviews to assist, first one from MIT... https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/20/1009328/a-mask-mandate-could-have-saved-thousands/

And here's one that explains how they work... https://scitechdaily.com/covid-19-pandemic-could-be-stopped-if-at-least-70-of-the-public-wore-face-masks-consistently/

Many countries where they've been distancing and wearing masks have also experienced a sharp drop in flu deaths. Can you think why that would be?

 

None of these are peer reviewed scientific studies, these are opinion pieces/articles. Why are there no actual studies? There are however scientific peer reviewed studies saying that wearing a mask will not protect you e.g. https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

 

What part of "please explain the difference in a flu virus/cold spreading and the covid virus spreading." did you not understand? If you had a cold in the last year, then you could just as easily have caught the covid virus.

Edited December 17, 2020 by Jake72

[Patjqm]

10 hours ago, pacman32 said:

Facts hmmm

Can't say for other places but 86% are asymptomatic in the UK. And the government admitted that previous numbers had been highly exaggerated. 

 

It would seem that governments can do what they want with this virus.

I don t know in Thailand, but here many people are asymptomatic and those who have symptoms have mild symptoms.. the reason that the beds are full( if.) is that the last decade nearly every govnmnt in the EU has downsized the number of  beds...while population is growing. 

[Snacks]

5 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

True, but we also had a government here who didn't lie about the virus, refuse to wear masks and bash scientists.  IMHO, these were the biggest problems in the US.  Poor leadership.

Yeah I agree - I wish Fauci wouldn’t have lied to us about masks not being necessary, and then flip flopped later on. Politicians saying dumb things is understandable, but when the foremost public health official lies, it ruins all credibility in the system. 

[BernieOnTour]

4 hours ago, EricTh said:

What I notice in Thailand is that most people have the decency to wear mask. That is the most important reason besides other measures.

 

In western countries, most people don't like to wear mask.

 

Well, I see daily quite the opposite (unless they go into a 7/11 or a mall).

 

And maybe ... contrary to common believe, it’s really a good idea:

Kansas left it to its 105 counties, if they introduced an obligation to wear a mask or not. Comparing the fatalities, those counties with obligatory masks encountered an increase in fatalities  by factor 1.5 

 

Possible explanation:

... coughing and sneezing is a natural mechanism to reduce the virus load.

Not for nothing, the slime in throat and nose is increasing, when catching a cold. The mucous membranes are constantly renewed and and the front layer cells with dead virus particles (from apoptosis) and active viruses are thrown out, when coughing and sneezing.

 

Masks are considered to protect others from droplet infections.

These droplets are relatively big (micrometer)  so that the masks hold them back. If the droplets dry out (which happens in a few seconds) the viruses get released, and a continuous „self-infection“ is starting, by breathing in, what’s inside the mask.

Even worse than catching a droplet from an infected person: the tiny viruses (nanometer) find their way far easier directly into the lungs instead only in the upper respiratory tract.

[Donga]

26 minutes ago, Jake72 said:

 

None of these are peer reviewed scientific studies, these are opinion pieces/articles. Why are there no actual studies? There are however scientific peer reviewed studies saying that wearing a mask will not protect you e.g. https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

 

What part of "please explain the difference in a flu virus/cold spreading and the covid virus spreading." did you not understand? If you had a cold in the last year, then you could just as easily have caught the covid virus.

Your study refers to the scenario where the community is not generally wearing masks... "Thus, these findings do not provide data on the effectiveness of widespread mask wearing in the community in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections. They do, however, offer evidence about the degree of protection mask wearers can anticipate in a setting where others are not wearing masks and where other public health measures, including social distancing, are in effect."

Clearly masks will be more effective, if for example I'm talking or coughing to you and we're both wearing masks. Has worked by and large in East Asia - reflects the cultural conformity and not being stressed about having to wear a mask.

Did you read the stuff from MIT and how effective masks would be if 70% of people wear them? And here's a peer reviewed study that you might like.. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17922-x

[Artisi]

1 hour ago, MRJOHNNY said:

Think you will find the U.K. have tested well over half of the population already, approx. 40 million plus tests completed to date, so the possibility of doing the same in Thailand whose population is about 3 million more than the U.K. is not beyond reality. 

Raises the question of course, if the country is virtually covid free, why attempt  to test everyone? 

 

The but but but answers count for nothing, only facts count. 

[bodga]

9 hours ago, Maxcom said:

1) A facemask that offers (almost?) Zero protection and

2) Less deaths in 10 months than in one long weekend due to road accidents.....

What's your conclusion?

 

Half past four

[Jake72]

22 minutes ago, Donga said:

Your study refers to the scenario where the community is not generally wearing masks... "Thus, these findings do not provide data on the effectiveness of widespread mask wearing in the community in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections. They do, however, offer evidence about the degree of protection mask wearers can anticipate in a setting where others are not wearing masks and where other public health measures, including social distancing, are in effect."

Clearly masks will be more effective, if for example I'm talking or coughing to you and we're both wearing masks. Has worked by and large in East Asia - reflects the cultural conformity and not being stressed about having to wear a mask.

Did you read the stuff from MIT and how effective masks would be if 70% of people wear them? And here's a peer reviewed study that you might like.. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17922-x

 

We don't need you to interpret the study I posted, it's got it's own conclusion and doesn't need any further interpretation. Their conclusion is that the difference between catching covid while wearing a mask and not wearing a mask is statistically insignificant.

 

And the nature article you posted is just based on a simulation that again is based on assumptions, not real data being collected.

 

Why is it that we don't have any proper scientific studies proving that lockdowns etc works? These lockdowns are destroying the livelihood of 100s of million of people all over the world. Surely we should have some actual scientific data to back up those decisions.

 

Also you ignored this: "please explain the difference in a flu virus/cold spreading and the covid virus spreading." did you not understand? If you had a cold in the last year, then you could just as easily have caught the covid virus.

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, MRJOHNNY said:

Think you will find the U.K. have tested well over half of the population already, approx. 40 million plus tests completed to date, so the possibility of doing the same in Thailand whose population is about 3 million more than the U.K. is not beyond reality. 

And they could do it again tomorrow and get a totally different result.

 

Testing is a waste of time and resources.

[Donga]

6 minutes ago, Jake72 said:

 

We don't need you to interpret the study I posted, it's got it's own conclusion and doesn't need any further interpretation. Their conclusion is that the difference between catching covid while wearing a mask and not wearing a mask is statistically insignificant.

 

And the nature article you posted is just based on a simulation that again is based on assumptions, not real data being collected.

 

Why is it that we don't have any proper scientific studies proving that lockdowns etc works? These lockdowns are destroying the livelihood of 100s of million of people all over the world. Surely we should have some actual scientific data to back up those decisions.

 

Also you ignored this: "please explain the difference in a flu virus/cold spreading and the covid virus spreading." did you not understand? If you had a cold in the last year, then you could just as easily have caught the covid virus.

I don't believe in lockdowns, they are a blunt tool. Hurt so many people, mostly the young, and/or less financial and drives me nuts.

However, Covid is very real, needs to be managed and there are some effective measures that the Europeans and Americans played poorly - effective quarantining and tracing, basic social distancing (inc reducing crowded indoor gatherings, but not outdoors, masked if crowded), community masking and self isolation for the vulnerable. Heat and humidity can be an advantage but did little to help Central American countries.

I don't get the cold/flu angle. Suffice to say, there is a lot more immunity to the common cold, e.g. I have the vaccine for free each year. The cold doesn't burden the hospital systems as much as Covid does when not managed well. Fortunately Thailand has managed Covid very well.
 

[Artisi]

23 minutes ago, Jake72 said:

 

We don't need you to interpret the study I posted, it's got it's own conclusion and doesn't need any further interpretation. Their conclusion is that the difference between catching covid while wearing a mask and not wearing a mask is statistically insignificant.

 

And the nature article you posted is just based on a simulation that again is based on assumptions, not real data being collected.

 

Why is it that we don't have any proper scientific studies proving that lockdowns etc works? These lockdowns are destroying the livelihood of 100s of million of people all over the world. Surely we should have some actual scientific data to back up those decisions.

 

Also you ignored this: "please explain the difference in a flu virus/cold spreading and the covid virus spreading." did you not understand? If you had a cold in the last year, then you could just as easily have caught the covid virus.

No masks and no social distancing seems to have worked out well in the US, is that statistically insignificant? 

[Glaswegian2]

17 hours ago, lujanit said:

Don't test the wider population, can't report positives.

 

No autopsies performed on the elderly who die, can't report positives.

 

Report people who die from respiratory illness as having died from viral pneumonia.

 

While it might seem as Thailand has done a good job of managing covid the figures which are reported are grossly understated (same as deaths on roads, only report people who are dead at the scene). This is a function of all authoritarian 'governments'.

 

I have a feeling you're right. I believe that many places vulnerable to the blandishments or threats of the pooyays have been reporting complications as the cause of death, rather then the COVID-19. IMHO, it's just not realistic for Thailand's death toll to be as low as has been reported. This suspicion was reported by some members months ago, but was roundly pooh-poohed by those who thought (and perhaps still think) they knew better. For simpletons like myself who wax cynical about the nature of this government and who have very little faith in the real masters of the land, it is clear that many of the numbers quoted are a more than just a little bit iffy, and are designed to convey the comfort that comes with ignorance and a learned-by-rote faith in what they've been told to believe.

 

It was ever thus. Get used to it, it won't change; even the imminent COVID-19 disaster or the belated Thai-based vaccine research won't change it. IMHO.

[SiSePuede419]

Well, for starters, they listened to scientists instead of drunks. ????

[metisdead]

A conspiracy post has been reported and removed.

 

A post containing content that was copy and pasted from some site has been removed:

 

14) You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Please only post a link, the headline and the first three sentences.

 

A post containing videos from unapproved YouTube sources has been removed:

 

18) Social Media content is not to be used as  source material unless it is from a recognized or approved news media source,  the source of any such material (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube  etc.) should always be shown.

 

Some troll posts and the replies have been removed. 

[Maxcom]

10 hours ago, bodga said:

Half past four

The question was to invite everyone just to stop and think about it...looks like it'll take more than that for you.

 

[goatfarmer]

On 12/17/2020 at 4:36 AM, lujanit said:

Don't test the wider population, can't report positives.

 

No autopsies performed on the elderly who die, can't report positives.

 

Report people who die from respiratory illness as having died from viral pneumonia.

 

While it might seem as Thailand has done a good job of managing covid the figures which are reported are grossly understated (same as deaths on roads, only report people who are dead at the scene). This is a function of all authoritarian 'governments'.

I doubt it. We would have heard plenty of anecdotal evidence of death and morbidity if the virus were widespread but its effect was being suppressed or under-reported. You can't keep an epidemic a secret.

Edited December 18, 2020 by goatfarmer
Sense

[goatfarmer]

6 hours ago, sirineou said:

Covid incidents  might be kept low by not testing, but how do you hide deaths and hospitals ICUs being overwhelmed with intubated patients ? 

Exactly. I remember calculating in mid March that if the exponential growth rate of hospitalizations (around 9% per day) continued for six more weeks we would have 400,000 to 500,000 hospitalizations by the end of April. Could've happened. Didn't happen. Hasn't happened. 

[goatfarmer]

15 hours ago, Jake72 said:

 

If you've been in Thailand since the outbreak started, have you had a cold during this time?

 

No. This has been the healthiest year of my life. 

[simon43]

IMHO, I see a 'first world' bias in many of the comments in this thread.  Posters living in the USA, the UK, mainland Europe etc, can't accept that these less-developed Asian countries like Thailand, Cambodia and Laos (where I live), have had a very low level of Covid cases.

 

Here in Laos, which borders China, we have seen ZERO deaths from Covid, and only about 36 cases, all of them from Lao or foreigners returning from overseas.  The country locked down very early, with strict lock-down rules that were adhered to, (I guess your would end up in big trouble if you didn't stick to the rules..).

 

The result is that lock-down ended months ago, and life is generally back to normal, with the exception being the affect on the economy, especially in the tourism sector.  Here in Luang Prabang, many hotels and restaurants are still closed.

 

I go into the town every day and see the occasional funeral of a very old person.  Was it Covid?  Who knows, but whatever they died of, it doesn't seem to be contageous...

[smylee52]

I was in Thailand in mid March when the train had left the station and the panic was on to escape Bangkok and get back to your village before travel was shut down . We packed up the truck and went to the village arriving home in the middle of the night . First thing in the morning a rep  of the village head man was at the door . First thing was taking our tempertures and then she informed the girlfriend , nicely , our names have been recorded and we are required to quarantine for 14 days . Permissable  to venture out to buy food only and always with a mask on .

 

I made a bad decision and arranged to get on one of the last flights out of Suvarnhabhumi to return home . I had to arrive at airport 7 hours before 3a.m flight because Bangkok was under curfew that had been established to be 9 p.m. .  Entrance to airport restricted to specified doors , temperature taken , hand sanitizer applied before entry allowed . 

When landing at Heathrow I saw few people wearing masks  and people being crowded into lifts and corridors leading to flights . Little if any sign of a country under a virus watch . On getting home I received a handout asking me to quarantine but no follow up as to whether I complied or not .

 

Pretty clear to me why Thailand has had low incidence of the virus while the rest of the world kept (keeps) their heads way up their asses . 

 

The doubters need to understand that this is 2021 and containing a severe illness or death rate is extremely difficult . I know a nurse working in a  rural Thailand hospital (GF's cousin )and she reports  they have yet to see a case of Covid 19 . 

[Bell1234]

The Heat is the reason why.. 

[simon43]

9 minutes ago, Bell1234 said:

The Heat is the reason why.. 

But that alone doesn't explain why Myanmar has had a lot of reported cases.

[BernieOnTour]

14 hours ago, Donga said:

I don't believe in lockdowns, they are a blunt tool. Hurt so many people, mostly the young, and/or less financial and drives me nuts.

However, Covid is very real, needs to be managed and there are some effective measures that the Europeans and Americans played poorly - effective quarantining and tracing, basic social distancing (inc reducing crowded indoor gatherings, but not outdoors, masked if crowded), community masking and self isolation for the vulnerable. Heat and humidity can be an advantage but did little to help Central American countries.

I don't get the cold/flu angle. Suffice to say, there is a lot more immunity to the common cold, e.g. I have the vaccine for free each year. The cold doesn't burden the hospital systems as much as Covid does when not managed well. Fortunately Thailand has managed Covid very well.
 

 

You are hitting the nail on its head.

 

Every health official worldwide is telling us: the priority is to protect the most vulnerable group: elders above 70. In western countries, a lot of these are in care homes and hospizes.

So - that’s exactly that group, which hasn’t a great a mobility and is not directly affected by the lockdowns !

 

However, the lockdowns affect primarily people younger than that, who according to the Prof. Ioannidis study, published in the WHO bulletin, have a lower case fatality rate han Influenza!

 

... a really focused method to protect our elders, eg. the Tuebingen-model, would be far more effective and have less collateral effects.

Edited December 18, 2020 by BernieOnTour

[crazygreg44]

Why should the official Thai numbers be wrong? Anyone who claims such a thing should first familiarize themselves with the facts.

 

The argument about the low numbers due to the alleged lack of tests says nothing. On the contrary, this argument is incomprehensible.

 

It is very easy and convenient to say the more you test, the more you will find. Nevertheless it remains pure speculation and has long been refuted by the current and actual situation.

 

Even if there were more active cases that went undetected due to a lack of tests:

Isn't it more likely that these cases cannot be serious because they did never, at no point, require any medical treatment?  They would have otherwise caused outbreaks in their environment, because they could hardly all have gone unnoticed. Yet, there was nothing such, nowhere in Thailand.

 

Symptom-free people who felt ill and who had to go to hospital and were not tested, cannot automatically be down with Covid-10, but God knows they may have caught something else. If they had Covid-19, the consequence would be that sooner or later they would infect many others in their environment. But one hears and reads about it: nothing!

 

So there is, according to the naysayers and conspirationists, allegedly - "because one is not testing" - a high number of unknown infected people, and numerous never noticed chains of infections?

 

Just let me ask: Where in Thailand are these sick people?  Where in Thailand were there any local outbreaks, larger or smaller, in the past 10 months?

 

Severe cases mixed with mild cases? WHERE are there any of these in Thailand? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing. There weren't any. Anyone who claims otherwise will simply pull it out of his nose, without proof, without evidence.

 

Such cases cannot possibly have been kept secret by the doctors, hospitals or by the government.

 

Where are they, these “infected people never found, because there is no testing”?

 

In Thailand there have been very few cases of a domestic infections in the past 10 months, and almost all of them have been brought into Thailand from the outside.

 

Since there haven’t been any chains of infectios in Thailand for the past 10 months and no local outbreaks, except for the handful of cases, you don't have to test either. It is that logical, isn't it?

 

If there were any outbreaks, we would know! Even WITHOUT testing.  However, not a single person suffering from the Corona virus has been admitted to a hospital in the past 10 months, except for those infected ones, who arrive from abroad every day since.

 

Furthermore, it is not true that there is no testing at all in Thailand.

 

EVERYONE who is admitted to hospital with a fever, respiratory illness or runny nose will also be tested for Covid-19. It is impossible to evade it. And they would actually make a difference between the virus and a “normal” respiratory infection . .   . . . . as asthma and lung edema have been among the top causes of death in Thailand in the past decade.

 

It is a lame assumption to say that these death were not properly registered or been falsely not attributed to the Coronavirus because they allegedly didn’t test them, because, on the contrary, they get tested as well!

 

We should be glad that the coronavirus in Thailand and neighboring countries has not spread any further than the official figures tell us, due to the discipline of the population and the early taken measures.

 

The Thais do not have the pandemic under control despite the measures or despite the lack of tests, but BECAUSE of the measures.

 

At no time was there a risk that the Thai hospital system would collapse. However it would, if the Thais would lower their protective measures and open their borders.

 

Or if they would discontinue quarantine period, before not 70% of the Thai population has received a vaccine protection. There is no reason in doing so, because even vaccinated persons might still carry the virus in their respiratory tract and the mouth and spread it among others. The vaccine only protects a person from the viral reproduction, not from catching and carrying it on their mucous membranes.

 

It's a comforting feeling, and I refuse to get fed sugar from the non-believers, the conspiracy spreaders, and Facebook experts and YouTube university graduates.

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 12/17/2020 at 8:48 AM, pacman32 said:

All I can tell you is that the virus is supposedly raging here in the UK but still most of our hospitals are empty.

Sorry but that's absolutely untrue. I have several relatives who work in the NHS, including my daughter.

 

They have been overwhelmed. In my daughter's hospital they have had around 80% bed occupancy (with Covid patients) at times during this pandemic.

 

Things were getting particularly bad just recently, where she works in the Manchester area.

 

My sister-in-law works in Teesside and they have been similarly run off their feet there as well.

 

The hospitals in the UK are not mostly empty, according to the people who actually work in them.

 

I don't have the latest figures but as of the first week of November UK hospitals were already struggling to cope and cases have only increased since then.

 

See extract below from an article published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) on November 5th:

 

Quote

The NHS has been placed on the highest alert level amid warnings that some hospitals are now seeing more patients with covid-19 than they did at the height of the pandemic in April.

 

Intensive care beds in England are filling up because of the rising number of patients being admitted with covid-19, health service leaders warned. NHS England’s chief executive, Simon Stevens, said that the NHS currently had the equivalent of 22 hospitals full of patients with covid and that it was “once again facing a serious situation.”

 

NHS placed on highest alert level as intensive care beds fill up

Edited December 18, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[Jeffr2]

44 minutes ago, simon43 said:

But that alone doesn't explain why Myanmar has had a lot of reported cases.

An interesting read.  The virus is very contagious and tough to deal with. 

 

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/12/01/myanmars-response-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/