China sharpens language, warns Taiwan that independence 'means war'

[mfd101]

It's not a matter of nuclear war but of a conventional clash between Chinese & US forces if it comes to the point. The difficulty is that US projection capabilities (over LONG distances) are not what they once were, and Chinese capabilities (over SHORT distances) are hugely improved and probably overwhelming even for the Americans.

 

The only thing that will stop the Chinese now (and it could be any day) is a US flotilla of heavy planes flying in to Taiwan over several weeks laden with missiles and high-tech capabilities of all kinds for the Taiwanese military, combined with large numbers of US military trainers to train the Taiwanese. If the Americans could also keep a large offensive maritime force with aircraft carriers at the ready in the region (ie east of Taiwan), then all will go quiet. But how long can the US maintain a fleet like that in the region (noting that they're in the process of splitting the 7th Fleet in 2, but that's a multi-year task for ships & basing)? And how much grit - and resources - is available in Washington?

 

In the long run, if the Chinese are really really determined - whatever it takes - they'll probably get what they want.

[placnx]

8 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Contemporary China is no longer the whipping boy like in the past. They are stronger in military and economic power. However China is still weary of the current global balance of power in favour of US but will never waver on the Taiwan's constitution to remain with the One-China principle. Wars will be costly for all sides but I personally doubt that US will defend Taiwan with troops on the ground. They don't even have a defense treaty for direct military intervention. Current Taiwan Relation Act only provide assistance to enable Taiwan maintain a sufficient self-defense capabilities. The West has no appetite for foreign wars taking the example of Ukraine.

 

Taiwan will be better in the foreseeable future to maintain the staus quo which is actually a defecto independence. In a survey by the Election Study Center, 90% of Taiwanese favour status quo. Not many want a unification with China. 

Taiwan has significant strategic importance to the West, not just the US. Ukraine is unimportant in comparison. Xi Jin Ping has however vowed to take over Taiwan. Will the others in the Chinese leadership blink?

[placnx]

7 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

I can see that the bitter and sad history of China attempt at unification is not your strong suit. I suggest you start with the Qin dynasty and work yourself to Mao's unification. Status quo has served Taiwan well for last 70 years. Don't need US or the rest of the free world to made things worse with no intention of intervening. 

There was not much problem until Xi started overdosing the Chinese people with a chauvinistic nationalism. Now there are expectations.

[placnx]

1 hour ago, mrfill said:

Assuming their game is being terrible at geography.

 

NATO is the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and unless Taiwan plans on moving soon, is rather a long way off the North Atlantic.

NATO seems to be involved in Afghanistan. Taiwan is of much greater strategic value to the North Atlantic alliance.

[tonbridgebrit]

13 hours ago, PatOngo said:

You've been bleating the same bull for 79 years, since 1949, you know you'll get your butt kicked if you try!

 

And if Mao had of invaded Taiwan in 1948, the whole world would of had no reason to intervene. It would have been part of China's civil war.

Yeah, Mao made a mistake. He should have invaded Taiwan prior to declaring China's new name as Peoples' Republic of China, in 1949.

That would have prevented any nonsense talk about NATO fighting World War Three to defend them Chinese in Taiwan.

[tonbridgebrit]

52 minutes ago, placnx said:

NATO seems to be involved in Afghanistan. Taiwan is of much greater strategic value to the North Atlantic alliance.

So NATO is getting involved ?  Not because a load of Chinese in Republic of China (Taiwan) want independence. It's because the island of Taiwan is of 'strategic value' ?

[tonbridgebrit]

14 hours ago, Salerno said:

 

Perhaps time for a multinational fleet to do a prolonged freedom of navigation mission in the South China Sea.

 

What are you talking about ?  The US fleet is already carrying out freedom of navigation missions in the South China Sea. Every ship carrying cargo has got freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

[tonbridgebrit]

13 hours ago, WineOh said:

 

One can only hope that this one day comes to pass.

 

Let's set the record straight now.. Is Taiwan officially a part of China or not?

If not then surely any attempt to capture it by the Chinese is an act of war in and of itself, and the international community is obliged to take Taiwan's side in any potential conflict that may ensue? ????

You should look at history.  China and Taiwan were in the same country prior to the 1890s. Japan took Taiwan in the 1890s.
Prior to 1945, China's name was Republic of China. Between 1945 and 1949, China and Taiwan were both in Republic of China. After 1949, China became Peoples' Republic of China. Taiwan carried on being Republic of China.

There can only be one China, there will never be two Chinas. USA recognizes that. USA recognised Taiwan as China prior to the 1970s. USA recognised China as China after the early 70s. And indeed, the United Nations don't recognize Taiwan as a country, hence Taiwan hasn't got a seat at the UN.

[Salerno]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

NATO seems to be involved in Afghanistan.

 

Because of 9/11. The US invoked Article 5.

[tonbridgebrit]

On 1/29/2021 at 8:45 PM, Salerno said:

 

You wrote about "a multinational fleet to do a prolonged freedom of navigation mission in the South China Sea."
I'm only trying to say that, the US navy has been carrying out freedom of navigation missions in the South China Sea for years now. Are you disputing this ?

Edited February 1, 2021 by onthedarkside
quote of hidden post removed

[Salerno]

4 minutes ago, tonbridgebrit said:

Are you disputing this ?

 

No, have even pointed out the fact they where ramped up under Trump. What has that got to do with a large multinational fleet having a protracted leisurely sail around the South China Sea now to send a clear message to your boss?

[tonbridgebrit]

1 minute ago, Salerno said:

 

No, have even pointed out the fact they where ramped up under Trump. What has that got to do with a large multinational fleet having a protracted leisurely sail around the South China Sea now to send a clear message to your boss?

So, we agree that the US navy has been carrying out freedom of navigational missions around the South China Sea. Good. So you're suggesting that countries like Britain, France, Australia, etc should also sail their ships alongside the American ships ?  What about ships from Russia, Iran, Venezuela, etc ?

There's no way Britain will waste tax-payers money by sending warships to the other side of the world, to take part in a 'protracted leisurely sail around the South China Sea'.  It will be cheaper to have British warships sailing along the English Channel, just to satify the racists in Britain who are against them immigrants crossing over from France.

[colinneil]

14 minutes ago, tonbridgebrit said:

There's no way Britain will waste tax-payers money by sending warships to the other side of the world, to take part in a 'protracted leisurely sail around the South China Sea'.  It will be cheaper to have British warships sailing along the English Channel, just to satify the racists in Britain who are against them immigrants crossing over from France.

Clearly you have no idea what you are talking about, look back at the travels in recent years of HMS Bulwark.

[Salerno]

1 hour ago, tonbridgebrit said:

So you're suggesting that countries like Britain, France, Australia, etc should also sail their ships alongside the American ships ?

 

Yes, rather than the individual operations they already do, a larger joint operation would show a united front. Would be happy to see the Japanese come along again too with Indian, South Korean, Vietnamese, Malay, Philippines etc.

 

1 hour ago, tonbridgebrit said:

What about ships from Russia, Iran, Venezuela, etc ?

 

If they can get a few ships together and want to up the ante why not. Up to them.

[NanLaew]

4 hours ago, placnx said:

Ukraine is unimportant in comparison.

The Ukraine is important for Russia, thus it is more important to Russia's enemies.

[NanLaew]

22 minutes ago, Salerno said:

 

Yes, rather than the individual operations they already do, a larger joint operation would show a united front. Would be happy to see the Japanese come along again too with Indian, South Korean, Vietnamese, Malay, Philippines etc.

 

 

If they can get a few ships together and want to up the ante why not. Up to them.

 

The US isn't the only nation with a navy that's tweaking Xi's nose in the South China Sea. Working deep-water offshore Vietnam, we encountered many foreign naval vessels including Indonesian, Indian, Japanese and Australian. Like us, they were always being closely monitored by the Chinese Coastguard.

 

Over the years offshore Vietnam, I have worked on operations that were harassed and impeded by the aggressive actions of the various Chinese maritime agencies that preceded their merger into a homogeneous Hong Kong based national coastguard. The latter seemed less aggressive than their forebears but the following is a game changer IMHO.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-coastguard-law-idUSKBN29R1ER

[Patong2021]

15 hours ago, smedly said:

Let the Taiwan people decide - simple 

Which Taiwan people? The ones that agree with white western position?

 

Original island people were subject to genocide by various invaders. Let us not forget that original people were Polynesian related. Dutch came and colonized, and then Chinese invaded and took, then Japanese steal away and then the corrupt Chiang Kia Shek retreated to the island after communist won control of mainland China. Yes, possession now makes a big difference, but mainland China has as much right to control Formosa island as does Taiwan.

 

It is no paradise in Taiwan with long history of military oppression and dictatorship and very bad corruption. Military dictatorship until 30 years ago. For a long time, Taiwan pollution as bad as mainland. It was a country which supplied arms and dealt with brutal dictators around the world for its profit. Please do not glorify the country as some sort of virtuous saint. It is not. Yes it is much better now and every decade makes new progress, but remember that only a short 10 years ago, political opposition was harassed and  physically assaulted. Today, democracy is still not strong - do not  make this country as a champion of freedom because it is not.

 

No, I am no making justification for China to invade and enslave people. We all can see the evil China has done in Hong Kong and we all know that as soon as China takes control, the few freedoms and liberties that exist now will  be stripped away.  I believe China has long term plan to take control of SE Asia. However, we must also remember that Taiwan makes big investments in mainland China, so maybe Taiwan should sacrifice first before westerners die for it?  Since SE Asia is at risk, let those countries make first contribution to regional security. India  has big navy. Maybe South Korea instead of investing in economy that takes away EU and America jobs can spend on security instead? My point is that west should not have to take on burden of China bully alone.  Look at poor Australia now. It is the only country which stood up to China and no one helps it. China has 2 hostage from Canada, and no help from EU, USA and no support from any country in SE Asia.

[smedly]

29 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

Which Taiwan people? The ones that agree with white western position?

what on earth is a white western position 

 

Please explain - I think only you know the answer to that in your own little world which none of us would understand - but you are entitled to think whatever way you wish and that is your right

 

my understanding is that Taiwan have elections - they vote for the people that run their country - they vote and that is called democracy - what am I missing  

[heybruce]

5 hours ago, placnx said:

Taiwan has significant strategic importance to the West, not just the US. Ukraine is unimportant in comparison. Xi Jin Ping has however vowed to take over Taiwan. Will the others in the Chinese leadership blink?

"strategic importance" is an understatement.  Taiwan is critical to the modern global economy:

 

"Only three firms in the world are able to make advanced processors: Intel, TSMC, whose home is an earthquake-prone island which China claims as its territory, and Samsung of South Korea, with a nuclear-armed despotic neighbour to the north. The Semiconductor Industry Association, an American trade body, reckons that 80% of global chipmaking capacity now resides in Asia."  https://www.economist.com/business/2021/01/23/chipmaking-is-being-redesigned-effects-will-be-far-reaching

 

Intel is falling behind in state of the art chip manufacture; much if its production is being outsourced to TSMC in Taiwan.  The facilities that manufacture these chips would take years to build, and, once built, would be years out of date because the manufacturing technology is constantly advancing.

 

If you don't like a globalized economy, tough.  You're living in one.  The devices you are using to communicate with at this moment are made with chips manufactured in Taiwan.  If China captures this manufacturing capability it will control a keystone of the world economy.  If these manufacturing facilities are destroyed in a war to take Taiwan the world economy will be crippled for years if not decades.

 

Taiwan must remain independent.  Western powers must do what it takes to enable this.

[tonbridgebrit]

2 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

Which Taiwan people? The ones that agree with white western position?

 

Original island people were subject to genocide by various invaders. Let us not forget that original people were Polynesian related. Dutch came and colonized, and then Chinese invaded and took, then Japanese steal away and then the corrupt Chiang Kia Shek retreated to the island after communist won control of mainland China. Yes, possession now makes a big difference, but mainland China has as much right to control Formosa island as does Taiwan.

 

It is no paradise in Taiwan with long history of military oppression and dictatorship and very bad corruption. Military dictatorship until 30 years ago. For a long time, Taiwan pollution as bad as mainland. It was a country which supplied arms and dealt with brutal dictators around the world for its profit. Please do not glorify the country as some sort of virtuous saint. It is not. Yes it is much better now and every decade makes new progress, but remember that only a short 10 years ago, political opposition was harassed and  physically assaulted. Today, democracy is still not strong - do not  make this country as a champion of freedom because it is not.

 

Interesting post, I agree with some of what you've written, but not all.

You're right, the indigenous people of Taiwan are not Chinese, they're Polynesians.  The vast majority of people in Taiwan today are Chinese, and these Chinese are from, or descended from, two seperate waves that turned up in Taiwan. The first lot went to Taiwan a few hundred years ago, and yes, they stole land and carried out genocide of the indigenous people. And yes, the second wave was made up of Chinese who lost the civil war in China, and fled to Taiwan after World War Two.
You mentioned Chiang Kai-Shek. You're right, he was recognized by America and Britain as the leader of China, and fled to Taiwan after losing the civil war. And yes, he was a dictator of China and Taiwan. There was no freedom of speech for anti-government activists.  Yes, Taiwan was a military dictatorship prior to todays democracy.

Let's look at the other countries who are in the area. It's funny.
South Korea ? They might send ships to patrol the area ?  South Korea are more interested in making sure North Korea don't invade them, they don't want to take part in a fight against China.  Japan ?  They lost World War Two against Britain, America and China. They're not interested in a war.   Vietnam ?  Any war against China needs America's support. So American forces will fight alongside Vietnamese ? It's unlikely. America sent soldiers to fight that Vietnam War against Vietnam. The Viet Cong were the enemy, they took over Vietnam after the Vietnam War. So, today, the communist dictatorship we see in Vietnam fought against the USA. The US government does not actually have a great desire to fight alongside the Vietnamese.
Philipinnes ?  They are a democracy, Duterte is their leader, Duterte is actually far more friendly towards China than America. What about Thailand ? Thailand is waiting for Covid to dissappear, and then welcome back a flood of Chinese tourists. What about India ?  India's more interested in fighting Pakistan over Kashmir. And, on a map, India is bit further away from the South China Sea.  And also, China has created that RCEP.  A new trade zone involving Far East countries. India was invited, but India said no. So, India is the odd one out.

I'm trying to say, that most or all of the countries in the area, are not in a serious position to fight China.

[simple1]

4 hours ago, heybruce said:

"strategic importance" is an understatement.  Taiwan is critical to the modern global economy:

 

"Only three firms in the world are able to make advanced processors: Intel, TSMC, whose home is an earthquake-prone island which China claims as its territory, and Samsung of South Korea, with a nuclear-armed despotic neighbour to the north. The Semiconductor Industry Association, an American trade body, reckons that 80% of global chipmaking capacity now resides in Asia."  https://www.economist.com/business/2021/01/23/chipmaking-is-being-redesigned-effects-will-be-far-reaching

 

Intel is falling behind in state of the art chip manufacture; much if its production is being outsourced to TSMC in Taiwan.  The facilities that manufacture these chips would take years to build, and, once built, would be years out of date because the manufacturing technology is constantly advancing.

 

If you don't like a globalized economy, tough.  You're living in one.  The devices you are using to communicate with at this moment are made with chips manufactured in Taiwan.  If China captures this manufacturing capability it will control a keystone of the world economy.  If these manufacturing facilities are destroyed in a war to take Taiwan the world economy will be crippled for years if not decades.

 

Taiwan must remain independent.  Western powers must do what it takes to enable this.

 

Well said. Taiwan is critical in the global supply chain for IT components / products

[Scott]

Inflammatory, troll post reported and removed.  

 

[daveAustin]

21 hours ago, Henk Langeweg said:

It is a part of China, always has been and when Mao did did some clean-up in mainland China the leftover crooks went to Taiwan. Again, Taiwan or Republic of China or whatever they want to call themselfs is an island belonging to mainland China.

You think? Personally think the crooks stayed on and the good folk went to the island.

 

No matter. Have at it then, bruv. Take it back. See where it gets you. Reason why China has not done so, and will not do so -- on what, a little island right on their doorstep? -- is that they have no balls in their draws. All mouth and trousers. Aside from an attempt to make the new US administration uncomfortable, all the posturing is for local consumption to detract from matters of reality. Pfft!

[tonbridgebrit]

China didn't get their nukes until the early 60s. Yes, America could have nuked China back in the 50s, and China would have done nothing.

So how comes America didn't nuke China back then ?  Well, simple.
Prior to 1949, Chiang Kai Shek was China's leader, America recognised Chiang as leader, and America had no problems with China back then. Do realise, Japan was the deadly enemy during World War Two. And China, Britain and America, fought together against Japan.
In 1949, Chiang Kai Shek lost the Chinese civil war, and fled to Taiwan. The Americans were backing Chiang Kai Shek, and Chiang certainly didn't want America nuking China. That's because Chiang still regarded himself to be ruler of China. He wanted to see his own KMT group take China back, take it back from Mao and the Communists.
And by the 1960s, China had their nuclear bomb. Obviously, nuking China would have meant China nuking America.  And yes, it was the Russians who gave China the technology to build a bomb.

You mentioned Tibet ?  Chiang Kai Shek was ruler of China from 1928 onwards. He is regarded as modern day Taiwan's founding father, from 1949 onwards. You do realise that he regarded Tibet as part of China, part of the Republic of China ? 
There's that other issue, regarding the the South China Sea.  Today, China's claims of ownership of the South China Sea are based on the 9 dash line map. It's hilarious, that map came about in 1947, yes, 1947.  Chiang Kai Shek, as leader of the Republic of China, a country made up of mainland China and the island of Taiwan back then, certainly did reckon that the South China Sea belongs to China. And after he fled to the island of Taiwan in 1949, then what ?  Mao Zedong declared China's new name as Peoples' Republic of China, Mao claimed that ALL the bits that made up Republic of China now made up Peoples' Republic of China. Hence, Mao claimed ownership of Tibet and the South China Sea.

And by the way, Taiwan (as in, the Republic of China) today still claims ownership of the South China Sea. Yes, the claim is through the same map that China is claiming. Republic of China (Taiwan) are certainly not giving up their claim. They've actually got one of the islands that is nowhere near China's coast.
 

Edited February 1, 2021 by onthedarkside
quote of hidden post removed

[heybruce]

6 hours ago, daveAustin said:

You think? Personally think the crooks stayed on and the good folk went to the island.

 

No matter. Have at it then, bruv. Take it back. See where it gets you. Reason why China has not done so, and will not do so -- on what, a little island right on their doorstep? -- is that they have no balls in their draws. All mouth and trousers. Aside from an attempt to make the new US administration uncomfortable, all the posturing is for local consumption to detract from matters of reality. Pfft!

One of the reasons, perhaps the only reason, mainland China did not attempt to take Taiwan in the decades after the communists took over is that the mainland lacked the military capability to do so.  However China is more powerful now than it ever has been, and Xi wants to be remembered as a leader on the same level as Mao. 

 

Past performance does not guarantee of future results.

Edited January 30, 2021 by heybruce

[John Drake]

On 1/29/2021 at 9:23 AM, robblok said:

Japan who was also underestimated and kicked half the western world before things turned around. 

 

It was Japan that overestimated itself.

[Eric Loh]

13 minutes ago, heybruce said:

One of the reasons, perhaps the only reason, mainland China did not attempt to take Taiwan in the decades after the communists took over is that the mainland lacked the military capability to do so.  However China is more powerful now than it ever has been, and Xi wants to be remembered as a leader on the same level as Mao. 

 

Past performance does not guarantee of future results.

KMT military was still formidable at almost 2 millions strong when they fled to Taiwan. Mao may have a stronger ground troops but lack the ships and planes to go after the retreating KMT military and don’t have the financial and time to buy the equipments from Russian. 
 

China will risk global condemnation, many casualties and a protracted war if they invade Taiwan. They know that reality but that does not guarantee they will not act if Taiwan declare independence. Taiwan too will not risk that dooms day scenario and most Taiwanese prefer the current de facto independence. 

[John Drake]

3 hours ago, tonbridgebrit said:

America could have nuked China back in the 50s, and China would have done nothing.

So how comes America didn't nuke China back then ?

 

Because until 1958-59, the USSR and China were closely allied and the USSR would have responded on behalf of China. Soviet industry, technicians, and military were spread across China.

[placnx]

17 hours ago, tonbridgebrit said:

So NATO is getting involved ?  Not because a load of Chinese in Republic of China (Taiwan) want independence. It's because the island of Taiwan is of 'strategic value' ?

Well, it's certainly import to some of us that Taiwan shows how democracy can operate well in a Chinese cultural environment, something that's an anathema to some. However, others are quite concerned that the most important chip fabricators are situated in Taiwan, and if China suddenly possessed that it would be dangerous for everybody else. Even the Russians might not like it!

[placnx]

17 hours ago, tonbridgebrit said:

You should look at history.  China and Taiwan were in the same country prior to the 1890s. Japan took Taiwan in the 1890s.
Prior to 1945, China's name was Republic of China. Between 1945 and 1949, China and Taiwan were both in Republic of China. After 1949, China became Peoples' Republic of China. Taiwan carried on being Republic of China.

There can only be one China, there will never be two Chinas. USA recognizes that. USA recognised Taiwan as China prior to the 1970s. USA recognised China as China after the early 70s. And indeed, the United Nations don't recognize Taiwan as a country, hence Taiwan hasn't got a seat at the UN.

I blame opportunist Richard Nixon and his sidekick Henry K for this. It didn't have to be.