Foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand fall to decade low

[Poet]

6 minutes ago, Golden Triangle said:

I have just set a reminder on my phone for the last week of October this year to gauge just how well the 10 million tourists are doing on the run up to the new high season, I sincerely hope you like humble pie.

That is actually a fine idea. Please do ping me at that time. An unusually high number of my much-disputed predictions do turn out to be right, particularly on financial stuff, but I never chase down the most flagrantly incorrect posters. They would probably deny their previous positions anyway.

10m in the 4th quarter is a valid target.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Poet

[Poet]

7 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

Working in Commercial Aviation for 35+ years, in a recent meeting with Airbus, they are predicting air travel will not return to normal levels until Q4 2023.

A heavily-subsidized company angling for more support. Is this a surprise?
 

8 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

Tons of planes parked in the desert.

Surely they would prefer, if possible, to get their expensive hardware back in the air.

 

9 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

The fortune 50 company I work for, just laid of a bunch of folks last week who had been with the company 25+ years.

If they were working for a Fortune 50, the chances are they already have a reasonable amount of money saved, invested, or in their homes. They likely have the skills to acquire another job, just possibly not at a Fortune 50. In any case, they are not going to stop having vacations.

 

11 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

US Aviation is hammered by layoffs, early outs and most of the industry working on reduced salaries.

Sure. This is the start of February. The only country, so far, to have vaccinated more than half its population is Israel. Globally, most travel remains essential-only.

That will change over the next few months as options increase, production expands, and vaccination schemes accelerate. The picture will be very different by the summer.

 

15 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

Reports in the US of people with vaccines are still testing positive for covid, even after the second dose.

I don't know the exact reports you are referring to. I am aware that some people managed to get infected after their first shot but before their body had a chance to build immunity. It does take time, and the full protective effect is not really present until a week or two after your second shot. When you are vaccinating millions, there are bound to be outliers like that.

If, as you appear to be suggesting, the vaccines simply don't work, well, nevermind the tourist industry, the entire economic system is screwed.

 

[kingdong]

9 hours ago, Poet said:

Well, I chose taxi driver to illustrate that, when I say skilled, I don't mean lawyers or programmers. As it happens, taxi drivers have done well during the pandemic, despite the nature of their work changing. This is what I'm saying, almost no one who wants to work has been impactedly as badly as we feared. Some may have had to switch roles, but the demand has remained strong, and people working online have experienced an astonishing boom.

Around the start of the lockdown, I helped a fairly average guy source the right courses so that he could spend six weeks learning how to code and he spent the rest of the year making decent money. The situation is not as bleak as some people make it out to be.

 

Taxi drivers have done well?my brothers a black cab driver in london,you having a laugh?

[kingdong]

52 minutes ago, Poet said:

Because, as you have failed to notice, "everyone" is not locked in their homes. The list of "essential" workers is massive.

 

I did not say "loads of money". I said that most people have been doing fine, spending far less money than usual, and are desperate for the chance to have a good vacation.

The taxi drivers who chose to remain working are still busy ferrying around many of the people who, previously, were using public transport. No one uses mass transport now if they can avoid it. Take a look outside your council flat window and you will see that the buses, if they are running at all, are mostly empty.

 

Hardly anyones travelling,full stop,theres a nationwide lockdown going on,the streets of london are deserted

[impulse]

1 hour ago, Poet said:

Perhaps, some day, a mental giant will emerge in this thread who can explain how the mass tourism doesn't kick in later this year once everyone in the first world who wants to be vaccinated is, once people get to travel safely for the first time in over a year, and once Thailand drops its onerous quarantine and testing requirements.

 

Thailand isn't even planning to start their vaccine program until June.  Then it will take a year or more to get enough people inoculated.

 

Mass tourism may happen again.  But it won't be kicking off this year.

 

[Poet]

29 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

Thailand isn't even planning to start their vaccine program until June.

That's not true. February 14th. They don't have near enough doses, only 150K, but will start with high-risk groups and medical personnel. Their original allocation for this month was 200K.

Their own production is not yet running but, once it is, their supply will be more secure than countries depending upon imports. Thailand will be supplying most of the region.

They should have ordered more, and more types of vaccine, but they are starting long before June.

 

29 minutes ago, impulse said:

Then it will take a year or more to get enough people inoculated.

Enough for what purpose?

They aim to have 50% of the population done by the end of 2021, and hope to have vaccines for all who want them from January 2022 onwards.

The purpose this thread is concerned about, however, is not herd immunity. We are talking about the level at which Thai public opinion will accept the inflow of vaccinated tourists. The government needs to be able to say that grandma won't die due to the dirty foreigners, that nurses won't be keeling over.

They will probably be able to claim that this first phase is complete before the end of May. By then, the pressure to get the tourism engine revving again, in preparation for the high season, will be massive. The situation in the countries the tourists come from will also be radically different by May. The theme in the global media will be that the worst of the crisis has passed, and the other major tourists destinations will all be vying to cash in on the post-pandemic travel boom. Thais will be aware of this.


 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Poet

[impulse]

21 minutes ago, Poet said:

49 minutes ago, impulse said:

Thailand isn't even planning to start their vaccine program until June.

That's not true. February 14th. They don't have near enough doses, only 150K, but will start with high-risk groups and medical personnel. Their original allocation for this month was 200K.

 

Hmmmmm.  That's not what I read...

 

"We can proceed with the approval within 30 days after all documents are submitted," he said.

J&J did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

 

Thai health authorities have previously said the first 50,000 doses of imported vaccine from AztraZeneca and 200,000 doses from China's Sinovac will arrive in February, although Surachoke said Sinovac had not yet submitted all the documents required for FDA approval.

 

Hard to imagine anything starting in February if their first supplier hasn't even submitted the documents to start the 30 day clock.

 

AFAIK, they've only firm ordered 2 million doses.  For a population over 60 million.  Given the kerfuffles going on around the world (EU as an example) related to vaccine supplies to rich/poor countries, they may be real late to the game.  Any country placing orders now may be months and months away on the delivery list- where the next year or so of vaccine production is already spoken for.  And that's after the brown envelopes are delivered to sign the contracts. 

 

Hopefully, they'll develop a domestic supply, but I'm not holding my breath.

Edited February 2, 2021 by impulse

[Poet]

15 minutes ago, impulse said:

Hmmmmm.  That's not what I read...

Read it again. That's talking about their "national inoculation plan" which is tied to their own production. It says as much right there in the 2nd sentence of your excerpt.

The imports that arrive in the months prior to June, starting this month, are being used for the high-risk groups and the medical personnel.

Those are the groups who actually need to be protected before the government can sell the idea of re-opening even to vaccinated tourists. You can read about the early imports in any current news report. The particular one I read was in the Bangkok Post but we are not allowed to link to them, so, here is an alternative I found by quickly googling:

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-01/26/c_139697026.htm

 

15 minutes ago, impulse said:

Hopefully, they'll develop a domestic supply, but I'm not holding my breath.

Yeah, I don't know. My understanding is that Thailand is pretty good at manufacturing, and this will all be done under the direction of AstraZeneca. Perhaps there will be massive production delays, but that doesn't affect the plan for the high-risk groups and medical personnel. They are in a completely box, they are not waiting until the production phase.

With those groups done, and with the pandemic waning around the world, the path to restarting the tourist industry is clear. The only thing that stops that happening this summer is if, as you suggested earlier, the vaccines simply don't work, but my impression so far is that they are sufficiently effective.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Poet

[Fex Bluse]

2 hours ago, Poet said:

<removed>

Perhaps, some day, a mental giant will emerge in this thread who can explain how the mass tourism doesn't kick in later this year once everyone in the first world who wants to be vaccinated is, once people get to travel safely for the first time in over a year, and once Thailand drops its onerous quarantine and testing requirements.

Again, 90% of the posters here on ThaiVisa are operating from a deep-seated desire to see Thailand explode. What has actually happened is that an important (but not vital) industry paused for a year. Millions of workers, most low-wage, returned to their villages. The hotels and airports remained standing. A few elite families had to stop inhaling money for a year but are unlikely to run out of food.

It all starts up again once the government can plausibly claim that the most vulnerable have been vacinated, allowing them to welcome the filthy foreigners back in. Vaccinated filthy foreigners. They will point to the fact that every other country has adopted the same approach. Other major destinations have ALREADY started. By the summer they will all be scrambling to get their slice of the biggest tourism boom in decades as pent-up demand kicks in. The hotels will be unlocked and dusted. The workers will board buses and return from the provinces. Everyone will continue on as before.
 

I've set a reminder in my diary to find you in the forums in several months to see how world travel and tourism is going. 

 

Many of us predicted where we are now whilst many people thought this thing would blow over in a couple months. 

[Poet]

26 minutes ago, impulse said:

AFAIK, they've only firm ordered 2 million doses.

That's the current order for just one vaccine, Sinovac from China. The article you linked to mentions that. That is part of Thailand's dependence on imports to get their most urgent vaccinations done now, prior to getting their own production going.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Poet

[Poet]

1 minute ago, Fex Bluse said:

I've set a reminder in my diary to find you in the forums in several months to see how world travel and tourism is going.

Yeah, another member here has set a reminder for October, to feed me some humble pie if the quarter is not on course for 10m. I reckon that's fair enough.
 

 

2 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

Many of us predicted where we are now whilst many people thought this thing would blow over in a couple months. 

I was never in that category. I always said that the only way out was a vaccine but now, thank Buddha, they are starting to roll out. Just as it was a mistake to underestimate the seriousness of the situation last March, it is a mistake not to now factor in the likely impact of mass vaccination. Lockdown is not a natural state, we will now slowly return to normality.
 

[impulse]

7 minutes ago, Poet said:

That's the current order for just one vaccine, Sinovac from China. The article you linked to mentions that. That is part of Thailand's dependence on imports to get their most urgent vaccinations done now, prior to getting their own production going.

 

Well, call me a skeptic. But Sinovac hasn't even submitted all the documents needed to start the 30 day clock for approval.  That in spite of the months and months since they announced the 2 million dose order.  So I'm not seeing a mid-February start.  June sounds about right for anything bigger than a vaccine program for the uber-HiSo and the Elites.  The unwashed masses will take a lot longer.

 

[Poet]

12 minutes ago, impulse said:

Sinovac hasn't even submitted all the documents needed to start the 30 day clock for approval ... So I'm not seeing a mid-February start.

They are starting with the 150,000 AstraZeneca imports. Already approved.

 

13 minutes ago, impulse said:

June sounds about right for anything bigger than a vaccine program for the uber-HiSo and the Elites.

If I understand correctly, the elites will be paying for shots that the private hospitals source separately from the national schemes.

In terms of the national scheme, the pre-June "HiSo's" are the high-risk folks and the elderly.

 

17 minutes ago, impulse said:

The unwashed masses will take a lot longer.

Yes, but they are irrelevant to the question of re-opening tourism. 24 year old Somchai will probably will more than willing to risk Covid if it means returning to his hotel or restaurant job, as long as Somchai's granny is already protected by a magical vaccine.

Bear in mind, by the way, that Somchai's chances of catching Covid from a tourist who has completed a full course of vaccination is extraordinarily low. By summer, any actual outbreaks will come from the continuous flow of migrant workers, in particular Myanmar.

 

[impulse]

4 minutes ago, Poet said:

They are starting with the 150,000 AstraZeneca imports. Already approved.

 

The link says 50,000 from AZ out of the total 200,000 expected in February.  150K from Sinovac, which haven't even submitted documents for approval.

[Poet]

4 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

The link says 50,000 from AZ out of the total 200,000 expected in February.  150K from Sinovac, which haven't even submitted documents for approval.

I got the 150k AZ figure from the Bangkok Post, which was down from the originally expected 200K AZ, but every time I read a different articles I seem to get different figures. My key point, however, is that they are starting, however haphazardly, in February, and that the segments necessary for re-opening tourism - the high-risk and medical personnel - will be protected long before they start on the general population in June.

Receiving it in batches of 50K sounds about right, you wouldn't want to get the entire February supply in one go. As slow as Thai bureaucracy may be, we have to guess that many more options will be authorized by, say, April. The increased production of Pfizer will be onstream. The EU will no longer be trying to hijack the supply to make up for their 3-month delay in submitting an order. I would have liked to have seen Thailand start in December, as the US and UK did, and to have placed orders with everyone, but even without that those key segments will still be protected by May.

[onebir]

1 hour ago, Fex Bluse said:

3 hours ago, Poet said:

Perhaps, some day, a mental giant will emerge in this thread who can explain how the mass tourism doesn't kick in later this year once everyone in the first world who wants to be vaccinated is, once people get to travel safely for the first time in over a year, and once Thailand drops its onerous quarantine and testing requirements.

I think that last bit could be the sticking point while the Thai population remains unvaccinated. (I thought antibody testing could be used to ensure tourists possess sterilizing immunity, but apparently they're not very reliable.)

[Poet]

1 minute ago, onebir said:

I think that last bit could be the sticking point while the Thai population remains unvaccinated.

Again, 24 year old Somchai will be glad to get back to his hotel job as long as Somchai's granny has had the magical vaccine.

Regardless of what the politicians may say publicly, no country is holding out a perfect solution before restarting their economies. What they need is a "good enough" solution. Vaccination passports backed by online verification, coupled with innoculating their own most vulnerable, will be good enough.

To imagine that the Thai elites will calmly wait for the entire population to be vaccinated before restarting the money machine is insane. Unless the new variants that render the vaccinations useless emerge over the next few months, Thailand will reopen this summer with only one requirement: a completed course of vaccination.

 

[onebir]

2 hours ago, Poet said:

To imagine that the Thai elites will calmly wait for the entire population to be vaccinated before restarting the money machine is insane. Unless the new variants that render the vaccinations useless emerge over the next few months, Thailand will reopen this summer with only one requirement: a completed course of vaccination.

Well I hope so too...

[Soikhaonoiken]

Think knight Frank has got his Decades mixed up, certainly wasn't as dead in 2008 as it is now,  I think he means 5 decades ago.... 

[kingdong]

4 hours ago, Poet said:

I didn't say they have done well, I said they are still working, still earning.

Ask your brother how often he make just £25 per day.
 

 

Is this in response to anything I wrote, or the voices in your head? I never said anything about it being "lucrative".
 

 

Are you absolutely sure you want to make that claim, that no one is using taxis?
 

 

Again, you are attributing things to me that I did not say. I am talking about people starting to travel again by the summer, when most of the population has been vaccinated.
 

 

Some streets may seem deserted but plenty of people are still working. If we are talking London, plenty of the commuters who used to throng the streets of the city are now working from home. Most manufacturing continues as before. The supermarkets and the vast supply, warehousing, and transport networks that supply them are still running. Some restaurant and hospitality workers have been laid off but are receiving money from the government. Most kitchen workers are now producing the meals for the delivery services.

The economy has not disappeared, it has shifted. Most people are still working. The stock market is doing fine. This is not 28 Days Later.

 

You said" taxi drivers have done well out the panademic" hope you sell your part share in the gogo bar soon.

[kingdong]

3 hours ago, impulse said:

 

Well, call me a skeptic. But Sinovac hasn't even submitted all the documents needed to start the 30 day clock for approval.  That in spite of the months and months since they announced the 2 million dose order.  So I'm not seeing a mid-February start.  June sounds about right for anything bigger than a vaccine program for the uber-HiSo and the Elites.  The unwashed masses will take a lot longer.

 

Yeah i,d say june any idea which year?

[kingdong]

6 hours ago, Golden Triangle said:

 

I have just set a reminder on my phone for the last week of October this year to gauge just how well the 10 million tourists are doing on the run up to the new high season, I sincerely hope you like humble pie.

British airways are not resuming flights to bangkok till oct,still what do they know?

[GinBoy2]

4 minutes ago, kingdong said:

British airways are not resuming flights to bangkok till oct,still what do they know?

I feel like broken record, but the airlines are more realistic in foretelling the future in terms of travel.

 

Over half of the the worlds widebody aircraft are currently stored in Victorville, Teurel or Alice Springs with no real timeline to being brought back to service before 2022/23.

 

I work for Delta, and domestic loadings are still running at best at 50% of what they should be. both in the US and Europe

 

Until you see domestic air travel return to normal the idea that folks are rushing to hop on a flight, even if it's even available, to Thailand is just absurd.

 

The sexpats may well crow about the pent up demand, but for real tourism, thats a long way off at this point

[kingdong]

1 minute ago, GinBoy2 said:

I feel like broken record, but the airlines are more realistic in foretelling the future in terms of travel.

 

Over half of the the worlds widebody aircraft are currently stored in Victorville, Teurel or Alice Springs with no real timeline to being brought back to service before 2022/23.

 

I work for Delta, and domestic loadings are still running at best at 50% of what they should be. both in the US and Europe

 

Until you see domestic air travel return to normal the idea that folks are rushing to hop on a flight, even if it's even available, to Thailand is just absurd.

 

The sexpats may well crow about the pent up demand, but for real tourism, thats a long way off at this point

Actually it was a tongue in cheek post.

[Poet]

19 minutes ago, kingdong said:

hope you sell your part share in the gogo bar soon.

Pretty sure you're mixing me up with someone else. No involvement with gogo bars, either as owner or punter.

Be sure to drink some water before you go to bed, it makes the hangover less severe.

 

[GinBoy2]

2 minutes ago, kingdong said:

Actually it was a tongue in cheek post.

Sorry. we really need an emoji for that!

[kingdong]

3 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

Sorry. we really need an emoji for that!

Thought it would have been obvious never mind i won,t give up the day job just yet.

Edited February 2, 2021 by kingdong

[GinBoy2]

5 minutes ago, kingdong said:

Thought it would have been obvious never mind i won,t give up the day job just yet.

I might have just just been a little slow...it happens!

 

[mike787]

Ya THINK!!!!! Dah!

[Fex Bluse]

7 hours ago, Poet said:

Yeah, another member here has set a reminder for October, to feed me some humble pie if the quarter is not on course for 10m. I reckon that's fair enough.
 

 

I was never in that category. I always said that the only way out was a vaccine but now, thank Buddha, they are starting to roll out. Just as it was a mistake to underestimate the seriousness of the situation last March, it is a mistake not to now factor in the likely impact of mass vaccination. Lockdown is not a natural state, we will now slowly return to normality.
 

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/2021/01/what-will-covid-19-vaccines-mean-for-travel-coronavirus/

 

Until the world has herd immunity, travel needs to be approached cautiously: As Mullen says, “being overly, or prematurely, confident about the vaccines’ effectiveness can lead to putting people in other countries at risk. Travel gives us a chance to contribute to their faltering economies. But contributing to disease spread undermines that.”

 

V