Thailand reports 809 new COVID-19 infections

[Susco]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

And these extra 21 positive cases including a local doctor in the  Muang and Kantharavichai districts of the northeastern province of Maha Sarakham found yesterday

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/mae-sot-to-monitor-strangers-in-their-communities-as-10-new-covid-19-cases-are-recorded/

 

Maybe I am blind, but in the article you link to, I don't see any mention about a doctor be infected or that the 10 ( not 21) infections in Maesot involved Thais.

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

Maybe I am blind, but in the article you link to, I don't see any mention about a doctor be infected or that the 10 ( not 21) infections in Maesot involved Thais.

Apologies my fault, gave you the wrong link, this is the correct one

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/2-districts-of-maha-sarakham-declared-red-zones-as-thailand-records-795-new-covid-19-cases-today/

 

The Muang and Kantharavichai districts of the northeastern province of Maha Sarakham have been declared Red Zones, and 17 high-risk venues have been closed, after a cluster of 21 COVID-19 infections, including a doctor, were recorded, according to CCSA spokesman Dr. Taweesin Visanuyothin on Wednesday.

 

In the forum here 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[polpott]

7 hours ago, darksidedog said:

How many other asymptomatic cases are out there who haven't reported to a hospital I wonder?

And is anyone testing the family and acquaintances of such people?

Along with the positives found daily, without also being given numbers on how extensive the testing is elsewhere, you can't really know what is happening nationwide.

I am hoping they do have it cooped in to a small area, but I have my doubts.

 

Still active testing in Chonburi. Targeting migrant worker accommodation, factories, supermarket staff and those with a high level of contact with the public. You need to broaden your news sources.

[dinsdale]

1 hour ago, Susco said:

 

It helps looking at my follow up post, where I confirmed that I found that quote in Bangkok post, though I find it strange that the Nation doesn't make any mention of it in their reports from today and/or yesterday.

 

Anyway, the quote from Bangkok post also says that of those 300 only TWO involved Thais outside Samut Sakhon.

 

 

No need to say I was right. That's ok.

[Susco]

5 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

No need to say I was right. That's ok.

 

I will, as soon as you point me to the right source that says that 300 Thais, outside Samut Sakhon, were tested positive in the past 2 days

[dinsdale]

17 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

I will, as soon as you point me to the right source that says that 300 Thais, outside Samut Sakhon, were tested positive in the past 2 days

Please quote me where I said outside of SS. I simply said 300 Thais have tested postitive in the last two days.

Edited February 4, 2021 by dinsdale

[Susco]

25 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Please quote me where I said outside of SS. I simply said 300 Thais have testested postitive in the last two days.

 

Look what I said, and which you tried to contradict.

 

Thanks for confirming that your comment was either bait or a troll post

 

And I still question why BP quotes 300 domestic cases in Samut Sakhon over 2 days, while Nation only quotes 36 + 18 over the same period

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Susco

[AmySeeker]

So 45 came to hospital to get tested. 

 

Until there is mass testing in the community we won't really know how severe the virus is circulating. But in all probability with the proximity of Bangkok to Sak - you can be pretty sure it has spread. 

[polpott]

4 minutes ago, AmySeeker said:

So 45 came to hospital to get tested. 

 

Until there is mass testing in the community we won't really know how severe the virus is circulating. But in all probability with the proximity of Bangkok to Sak - you can be pretty sure it has spread. 

 

Today.

[AmySeeker]

Just now, polpott said:

 

Today.

 

Go on then - tell me how many tests were done throughout Thailand yesterday?

 

Singapore carried 94,000 tests yesterday - for a tiny population 1/6 of Thailand

Malaysia carried out 96,000 tests yesterday - and found over 4000 infections - with half the population of Thailand

The UK carried out 260,000 tests yesterday - same population as Thailand 

 

Until they start mass testing the population they will never know how much of the virus is circulating. 

[Susco]

27 minutes ago, polpott said:

 

Today.

 

 

At least, they could have invited a few more people for the photo op, or you mean the mayor is attending the test every day?

[polpott]

39 minutes ago, AmySeeker said:

 

Go on then - tell me how many tests were done throughout Thailand yesterday?

 

Singapore carried 94,000 tests yesterday - for a tiny population 1/6 of Thailand

Malaysia carried out 96,000 tests yesterday - and found over 4000 infections - with half the population of Thailand

The UK carried out 260,000 tests yesterday - same population as Thailand 

 

Until they start mass testing the population they will never know how much of the virus is circulating. 

I'm only really interested in Pattaya so focus my attention on Pattaya and Chonburi. The YouTube channel gives me regular updates on testing locally and all things Covid. Lots of testing in Pattaya however they haven't found a single case of Covid in Banglamung (Pattaya) for more than 2 weeks now. Why? Because there isn't any in this area.

 

In my village in the UK I knew of 2 people who had died of Covid and I heard yesterday that a friend, who I have known since my youth, has died of Covid after being in hospital for 3 short days. I know of many more people who have contracted Covid and survived, including my own daughter and son in law. I don't know of anyone in Thailand who has had Covid let alone died of it.

 

Rather than cover up from embarrasment your own country's inability to control Covid by denying Thailand's undoubtable success, I think myself lucky and privileged to have been able to ride out the pandemic by staying in Thailand.

[AmySeeker]

25 minutes ago, polpott said:

I'm only really interested in Pattaya so focus my attention on Pattaya and Chonburi. The YouTube channel gives me regular updates on testing locally and all things Covid. Lots of testing in Pattaya however they haven't found a single case of Covid in Banglamung (Pattaya) for more than 2 weeks now. Why? Because there isn't any in this area.

 

In my village in the UK I knew of 2 people who had died of Covid and I heard yesterday that a friend, who I have known since my youth, has died of Covid after being in hospital for 3 short days. I know of many more people who have contracted Covid and survived, including my own daughter and son in law. I don't know of anyone in Thailand who has had Covid let alone died of it.

 

Rather than cover up from embarrasment your own country's inability to control Covid by denying Thailand's undoubtable success, I think myself lucky and privileged to have been able to ride out the pandemic by staying in Thailand.

 

Update UK carried out nearly 800,000 tests in one day yesterday.  

 

Anyone have any update on how many tests were done yesterday in Thailand? I assume the figure will be extremely low. 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

 

What is appalling is even Malaysia is doing more testing than Thailand. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by AmySeeker

[polpott]

4 minutes ago, AmySeeker said:

 

Update UK carried out nearly 800,000 tests in one day yesterday.  

 

Anyone have any update on how many tests were done yesterday in Thailand? I assume the figure will be extremely low. 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

 

What is appalling is even Malaysia is doing more testing than Thailand. 

Pointless testing when no one has Covid. Or are you telling me that you know of lots of Covid cases in Thailand. To use a well worn phrase, Thai hospitals are empty, temples are short of business.

 

Update. The UK is riddled with covid and the government promised many months ago that they would be doing 1 million tests per day. They achieved that target on one day only (by massaging the figures). Never since.

Edited February 4, 2021 by polpott

[rabas]

1 hour ago, AmySeeker said:

So 45 came to hospital to get tested. 

 

Until there is mass testing in the community we won't really know how severe the virus is circulating. But in all probability with the proximity of Bangkok to Sak - you can be pretty sure it has spread. 

But Thailand knows.

 

As of now almost 1 million (968,941) people have reported to hospitals and clinics because of respiratory symptoms  and  were tested for covid.  Almost none had it.  In total 1,388,773 lab tests have been performed.

 

Yesterday they reported 7578 tests. Numbers are posted every day in Thai and English. 

So should I ask the Thai, or TV experts?

 

Feb 2

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no390-020264.pdf

 

Feb 1

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no389-010264.pdf

Edited February 4, 2021 by rabas

[AmySeeker]

29 minutes ago, polpott said:

I'm only really interested in Pattaya so focus my attention on Pattaya and Chonburi. The YouTube channel gives me regular updates on testing locally and all things Covid. Lots of testing in Pattaya however they haven't found a single case of Covid in Banglamung (Pattaya) for more than 2 weeks now. Why? Because there isn't any in this area.

 

In my village in the UK I knew of 2 people who had died of Covid and I heard yesterday that a friend, who I have known since my youth, has died of Covid after being in hospital for 3 short days. I know of many more people who have contracted Covid and survived, including my own daughter and son in law. I don't know of anyone in Thailand who has had Covid let alone died of it.

 

Rather than cover up from embarrasment your own country's inability to control Covid by denying Thailand's undoubtable success, I think myself lucky and privileged to have been able to ride out the pandemic by staying in Thailand.

 

The virus doesn't just stay in one area though.

 

With people now allowed to come to Pattaya they will bring the cases over. Then we head for another shutdown. 

[rabas]

5 minutes ago, AmySeeker said:

 

Update UK carried out nearly 800,000 tests in one day yesterday.  

 

Anyone have any update on how many tests were done yesterday in Thailand? I assume the figure will be extremely low. 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

 

What is appalling is even Malaysia is doing more testing than Thailand. 

What is the UK tests per positive case?

[AmySeeker]

1 minute ago, rabas said:

What is the UK tests per positive case?

 

800,000 tests - around 20,000 positive. But a few weeks ago the UK was having up to 60,000 cases a day ! 

[polpott]

5 minutes ago, AmySeeker said:

 

The virus doesn't just stay in one area though.

 

With people now allowed to come to Pattaya they will bring the cases over. Then we head for another shutdown. 

The root cause of the latest outbreak was porus borders, not interstate travel. Thailand closed its borders very early in the pandemic and quickly moved to state quarantine when they realised that self quarantine didn't work. However, the UK has only just decided to close its borders a year in and then not completely and relying on home quarantine. When the responsible minister, Matt Handcock, was asked about state quarantine he replied that it was logistically impossible. So Thailand has achieved the impossible and the UK government fiddles whilst England burns.

 

Try getting your own house in order before you criticise Thailand.

[AmySeeker]

55 minutes ago, polpott said:

The root cause of the latest outbreak was porus borders, not interstate travel. Thailand closed its borders very early in the pandemic and quickly moved to state quarantine when they realised that self quarantine didn't work. However, the UK has only just decided to close its borders a year in and then not completely and relying on home quarantine. When the responsible minister, Matt Handcock, was asked about state quarantine he replied that it was logistically impossible. So Thailand has achieved the impossible and the UK government fiddles whilst England burns.

 

Try getting your own house in order before you criticise Thailand.

 

 

You clearyl have little clue how this works. You can whinge about porous borders, and blame them - but once the virus is in Thailand, it will spread. 

 

People acting like this virus has borders and will remain in Samut Sakhon are insane. 

[Susco]

1 hour ago, polpott said:

Pointless testing when no one has Covid. Or are you telling me that you know of lots of Covid cases in Thailand.

 

So you know how many people are infected without testing?

 

Are you a fortune-teller or a stand-up comedian? Don't answer that one.

[polpott]

15 minutes ago, AmySeeker said:

You clearyl have little clue how this works.

And you do? 

[AmySeeker]

24 minutes ago, polpott said:

And you do? 

 

Obviously more than you. 

 

Suggesting this virus has borders and will remain in Samut Sakhon is poposterous - especially when that area isn't even in a lockdown. 

 

More than likely this virus has spread into neighbouring cities like Bangkok. And with the government encouraging people to go to other areas, it will go to Pattaya. 

[Olivie]

The really should continue their previous strategy, it was really working well: no test = no case

[meltonpie]

6 hours ago, rabas said:

But Thailand knows.

 

As of now almost 1 million (968,941) people have reported to hospitals and clinics because of respiratory symptoms  and  were tested for covid.  Almost none had it.  In total 1,388,773 lab tests have been performed.

 

Yesterday they reported 7578 tests. Numbers are posted every day in Thai and English. 

So should I ask the Thai, or TV experts?

 

Feb 2

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no390-020264.pdf

 

Feb 1

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no389-010264.pdf

Apologies if I have made a mistake, but the figures appear to indicate that from day to day the number of laboratory test has increased by 7,578 and there are 836 new cases.

So 11% of the tests have proved positive.

I don't know how many people in Samut Sakhon have still not been tested, but the pace of testing appears wholly inadequate.  Maybe Thailand does not have the capacity to do more.  Whilst the UK is now testing huge numbers daily, at the start of the pandemic it's capacity was also very limited and not able to cope with demand.

I read many comments on here that more widespread testing should be done, and many who say it is pointless if there is no spread of infection.

Given the nature of the virus and experience around the World , the more sensible approach would surely be to do more testing in order to reassure everyone that the spread isn't greater than it appears.

If numbers are allowed to increase its quite possible that Thailand could also see some mutation and the fear then would be that it could become more devastating.

Burying ones head in the sand isn't effective.

[Laughing Gravy]

17 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Think you are wrong, it will be about 780-790. This whole recent 800 palaver is going up, down, up , down, up, down, up down. Since today was an up, therefore tomorrow is due to be a down day to keep the happy 800 median 

I agree, I was being fesiscious.????

[Peter Denis]

8 hours ago, AmySeeker said:

800,000 tests - around 20,000 positive. But a few weeks ago the UK was having up to 60,000 cases a day ! 

20.000 cases on one day!  Sounds like we have a crisis, that needs stringent measures to mitigate.

That is...

until you look at the positive test ratio > 2.5%

Considering that:

- those 800.000 tests were surely not completely random (and will most probably include the tests taken at hospitals with people showing symptoms and tests taken in high-risk areas)l

- that a positive test does not mean that you are infectuous (could be the debris of a previous infection, with tested person not even knowing he did 'had it' at the time)

- that you need to take into account the 'false positives' (when testing done at +35 cycle times - a common practice - false positive results are common)

... this paints a somewhat different picture.

And of course, also of interest being the follow-up results > what part of these 20.000 positives develop symptoms necessitating hospitalization. 

And the age / underlying conditions of those that tested positive.

>> Only head-lining 20.000 positive cases will not give you the necessary background iinformation to put that figure into perspective.  One of the reasons that I resent the stand-alone daily 'number of positive cases found' figure, which opens the door for all kind of speculation.

[morrobay]

1 hour ago, Peter Denis said:

 

Considering that:

 

- that a positive test does not mean that you are infectuous 

Yes https://theconversation.com/covid-19-when-are-you-most-infectious-150760 See the graph that those are most infectious for only about 4 days into initial infection. Another source Harvard Medical School: Symptoms typically appear 4 or 5 days after exposure. Emerging research suggests people most likely to spread virus 48 hrs before symptoms. Then note: with R0 2 there are only 15 total infections after 12 days. (three 4 day infection intervals) It would be incorrect to include the totals at each interval to continuing to be transmitting virus : for example in diagram the index case 1 infects 2. Then 3x2 =6 + 3 = 9.then 9x2 = 18 +9=27. then 27x2 =54 +27 = 81.

[Bkk Brian]

9 hours ago, rabas said:

But Thailand knows.

 

As of now almost 1 million (968,941) people have reported to hospitals and clinics because of respiratory symptoms  and  were tested for covid.  Almost none had it.  In total 1,388,773 lab tests have been performed.

 

Yesterday they reported 7578 tests. Numbers are posted every day in Thai and English. 

So should I ask the Thai, or TV experts?

 

Feb 2

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no390-020264.pdf

 

Feb 1

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no389-010264.pdf

Interesting to look at those stats, we can see when mass testing starts and finishes, according to this it was only for 4 days.

 

24th Jan: Total Tests = 5,400. Positive cases = 198. 

25th Jan: Total Tests = 6,974. Positive cases = 187. 

26th Jan: Total Tests = 11,757. Positive cases = 956. 

27th Jan: Total Tests = 13,968. Positive cases = 819. 

28th Jan: Total Tests = 13,118. Positive cases = 756.

29th Jan: Total Tests = 12,934. Positive cases = 802.

30th Jan: Total Tests = 5,351. Positive cases = 930.

31st Jan: Total Tests = 3,714. Positive cases = 829.

1st Feb: Total Tests = 6,024. Positive cases = 836.

2nd Feb: Total Tests = 7,578. Positive cases = 836.

 

There are plenty of caveats here though, the numbers for tests are for laboratory tests only not for the number of people tested and we know that it many cases it takes two tests to confirm a person as positive. There are no breakdowns in the report for different area's so its not easy to give a positive percentage figure for particular areas. 

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

[Peter Denis]

20 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Interesting to look at those stats, we can see when mass testing starts and finishes, according to this it was only for 4 days.

 

24th Jan: Total Tests = 5,400. Positive cases = 198. 

25th Jan: Total Tests = 6,974. Positive cases = 187. 

26th Jan: Total Tests = 11,757. Positive cases = 956. 

27th Jan: Total Tests = 13,968. Positive cases = 819. 

28th Jan: Total Tests = 13,118. Positive cases = 756.

29th Jan: Total Tests = 12,934. Positive cases = 802.

30th Jan: Total Tests = 5,351. Positive cases = 930.

31st Jan: Total Tests = 3,714. Positive cases = 829.

1st Feb: Total Tests = 6,024. Positive cases = 836.

2nd Feb: Total Tests = 7,578. Positive cases = 836.

 

There are plenty of caveats here though, the numbers for tests are for laboratory tests only not for the number of people tested and we know that it many cases it takes two tests to confirm a person as positive. There are no breakdowns in the report for different area's so its not easy to give a positive percentage figure for particular areas. 

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

As you correctly stated > In order to determine whether the 'positive test' was not a false positive, a 2nd test is being conducted. 

However, because of the time lapse (2 to 5 days) between taking the test, and the 2nd test which once again takes 2 to 5 days before results are available (if they use the same RTP-test method), it is clear that the 'positive case' numbers are an 'upwards skewed' indicator.

If EVERY positive test results in another test taken, that means that if a positive case is indeed confirmed as positive, that the number of cases should be halved (as 2 positive tests have been taken to confirm that one case).

And when the 2nd test turns out to be a negative, the initial 'positive' should be subtracted from the earlier results. 

I doubt that this is done, much easier to simply quote the number of positive tests.  So when basing conclusions on these figures the the upwards skewedness of those positive case numbers should be taken into consideration also.