Thailand reports 965 new COVID-19 cases

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Just now, blackcab said:

 

The electronic/internet side of the tracking is not a problem. The first major obstacle might be that Thailand does not have that quantity of trackers available.

 

I remember reading past news... Thailand was just beginning to try to use the trackers on some criminal case folks... Best as I recall, they had maybe 100+ to try as an experiment... Don't recall hearing much after that.... if terms of how their use fared.... Just that, AFAIK, it's just something they're at the relative beginning of dealing with.

 

[FarFlungFalang]

7 minutes ago, blackcab said:

 

The electronic/internet side of the tracking is not a problem. The first major obstacle might be that Thailand does not have that quantity of trackers available.

 

The second obstacle might be: What would you actually do with the data? If the purpose is for enforcement, who is going to be doing the enforcement? How would they do this? Who would pay for the enforcement?

Who would pay for enforcement?The same people who pay for the enforcement of traffic violations and it would be the same people doing the enforcing!Maybe that's why they are not doing it like that,tooooo embarrassment!

Edited April 13, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[Antonymous]

2 hours ago, robblok said:

Responsible people who are worried to infect the people around them. I can imagine people living alone who don't care much about others would not do so. I would hate to be the one that infected all my friends. So yes id go for a test if i was at risk.

 

My GF had to do a test because she was at a certain bar and there were 10 in her company who got infected. It was all clear and yes i fear getting locked up too. Losing out on work and other stuff. But putting your head in the sand and acting like there is no problem is not the right way to go around.

 

I just worry about others who i might infect.

 

Good for you Rob. I just wonder, do you go to the hospital to get tested to verify that you have 'flu' every time you get symptoms?

 

I certainly don't. There are two measures that I abide by, all my adult life:

 

1. Avoid being around sick people who appear to have contagious symptoms

2. If I myself get symptoms I self isolate to avoid infecting others

 

Flu and pneumonia are real killers. According to the latest WHO data published in 2018 Influenza and Pneumonia Deaths in Thailand reached 44,549 or 9.11% of total deaths.

 

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/thailand-influenza-pneumonia

 

That’s 3,712 deaths PER MONTH in Thailand.

 

In an entire YEAR there have been 97 deaths in Thailand attributed to Covid-19.

 

Just adding a little perspective to the ongoing debate.

 

 

[aussiexpat]

13 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

Flu and pneumonia are real killers. According to the latest WHO data published in 2018 Influenza and Pneumonia Deaths in Thailand reached 44,549 or 9.11% of total deaths.

 

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/thailand-influenza-pneumonia

 

That’s 3,712 deaths PER MONTH in Thailand.

 

In an entire YEAR there have been 97 deaths in Thailand attributed to Covid-19.

 

Just adding a little perspective to the ongoing debate.

Yep, I can't understand why 44,500 flu deaths per year go unnoticed (or all the bike deaths) but 97 deaths from Covid in 16 months is "the walking dead" scenario that shuts down a country (same Australia and New Zealand)

Edited April 13, 2021 by aussiexpat

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Antonymous said:

1. Avoid being around sick people who appear to have contagious symptoms

With Covid and a person being asymptomatic and untested you will never know if you have been infected until you develop symptoms.  Then by your own admission you will just stay home and as it progresses be without the medical assistance needed.  I wish you luck in your self imposed chamber, if it comes to that. By then your body will be shedding the virus and anyone who is in close proximity will become infected, but then it appears you are not concerned about others just yourself.  Good luck, stay safe.  My condo unit just announced a resident was found to be positive for Covid and was picked up this morning by ambulance and taken to the hospital.  Entire condo unit has now been sanitized, and common areas are closed to anyone except to walk on through.  Pool as well as gym have been closed.  It is real and not a game.  As I said good luck and be safe.

Edited April 13, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Bkk Brian]

Here's hoping we will all soon get a sense of the real number of people infected and the true scale of this outbreak. Its being grossly under reported with lack of tests.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[stigar]

Tomorrow im finish my 15 days qarantene.Testet negativ yesterday.I will go directly to apartment in lad phrao.Buy beers and whisky and jst stay home for a while.

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, stigar said:

Tomorrow im finish my 15 days qarantene.Testet negativ yesterday.I will go directly to apartment in lad phrao.Buy beers and whisky and jst stay home for a while.

Hopefully they will be selling alcohol when you go to the store and it is not between the hours you can not buy.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

BMA for Bangkok updates COVID testing results for their outreach efforts to Thong Lor area entertainment venue workers April 3-10.

 

Latest cumulative is 12.5% positivity rate for all those tests with results back thus far -- 839 positives out of 6,690 results. 5851 negatives, and 1370 test results still pending.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/earthpongsakornk/posts/501811007895466

 

 

[stigar]

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

Hopefully they will be selling alcohol when you go to the store and it is not between the hours you can not buy.

I know the selling hours so thats no problem.I have buying whisky here in bangkok 2-3 am.The taxi took me to the distributur so i could buy any alcohol i asked for.

[Antonymous]

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

With Covid and a person being asymptomatic and untested you will never know if you have been infected until you develop symptoms.  Then by your own admission you will just stay home and as it progresses be without the medical assistance needed.  I wish you luck in your self imposed death chamber, if it comes to that. By then your body will be shedding the virus and anyone who is in close proximity will become infected, but then it appears you are not concerned about others just yourself.  Good luck, stay safe.  My condo unit just announced a resident was found to positive for Covid and was picked up this morning by ambulance and taken to the hospital.  Entire condo unit has now been sanitized, and common areas are closed to anyone except to walk on through.  Pool as well as gym have been closed.  It is real and not a game.  As I said good luck and be safe.

 

 

Far too many issues and false assumptions in your post to comment on fully.

 

Will just state this:

 

Asymptomatic spread is negligible to non-existent. In simple terms people who are not sick can't spread Covid. Healthy people are not drivers of the epidemic.

 

On 9 June 2020 the WHO declared: "Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare'".

 

On 22 June 2020 Fauci stated: "In all history of respiratory-born viruses of any type, asymptomatic transmission has never been the driver of outbreaks. The driver of outbreaks is always a symptomatic person".

 

You may like to review JAMA (The Journal of the American Medical Association) "Household Transmission of SARS-COV-2. A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis" 14 December 2020 for further data on asymptomatic transmission.

 

My wife (a nurse) and I have been well prepared by building our immune systems (tested regularly) and have on hand, at home, the necessary supplies to take if either of us do contract Covid.

 

To everyone. Keep calm. Be prepared.

 

[ThailandRyan]

15 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

Asymptomatic spread is negligible to non-existent. In simple terms people who are not sick can't spread Covid. Healthy people are not drivers of the epidemic.

You are so funny, as I said in my post my words were directly taken from your post.  You just don't like to see your own words used in another way.  Good luck as I said.  Asymptomatic's do become positive with symptoms and they do and can shed the virus, so live your life the way you want and I hope you do not get infected, because karma is a fickle finger of fate.

 

Asymptomatic infection blunder let Covid-19 spin out of control - STAT (statnews.com)

 

The link I posted is also a verified legitimate news source and not a conspiracy site, you can check it here

 

Stat (News) - Media Bias Fact Check

Edited April 13, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[robert888d]

113 countries have a better vaccination record than Thailand!!!!!Say no more. Google vaccination statistics. 

[Anna Rak]

Well! Well!, as we have said many times over the past year, in Thailand "No Test, No Have"

 

My wife was watching the Thai Ch7 new's the other day and it was reported that the hospitals were telling the government to STOP testing people because they were finding to many people had the virus and they had not enough beds.

 

Personally I can't wait for the foreign travel to start up again, I will have had my 2 jabs by the end of May. He! He! He!

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The prior poster above is relying on almost year old information, and a lot has changed and evolved in understanding over that time.

 

There's also the often misunderstood relationship between truly asymptomatic patients and those who instead are actually PRE-symptomatic... the symptoms just haven't arrived yet.

 

Analysis of Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic Transmission in SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak, Germany, 2020

April 2021

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-4576_article

 

"We determined secondary attack rates (SAR) among close contacts of 59 asymptomatic and symptomatic coronavirus disease case-patients by presymptomatic and symptomatic exposure. We observed no transmission from asymptomatic case-patients and highest SAR through presymptomatic exposure. Rapid quarantine of close contacts with or without symptoms is needed to prevent presymptomatic transmission."

 

"In this cluster of COVID-19 cases, little to no transmission occurred from asymptomatic case-patients. Presymptomatic transmission was more frequent than symptomatic transmission."

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

There seem to be varying findings as well...

 

January 7, 2021

 

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms

 

Question  What proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is associated with transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from persons with no symptoms?

 

Findings  In this decision analytical model assessing multiple scenarios for the infectious period and the proportion of transmission from individuals who never have COVID-19 symptoms, transmission from asymptomatic individuals was estimated to account for more than half of all transmission.

...

In this base case, 59% of all transmission came from asymptomatic transmission, comprising 35% from presymptomatic individuals and 24% from individuals who never develop symptoms.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774707

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[stubuzz]

45 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Latest cumulative is 12.5% positivity rate for all those tests with results back thus far -- 839 positives out of 6,690 results. 5851 negatives, and 1370 test results still pending.

Am i correct in saying that a greater that 5% positivity rate indicates that testing should be increased?

Edited April 13, 2021 by stubuzz

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 minutes ago, stubuzz said:

Am i correct in saying that a greater that 5% positivity rate indicates that testing should be increased?

 

Think that's the general rule of thumb in the big wide world...

 

[ThailandRyan]

12 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

There seem to be varying findings as well...

 

January 7, 2021

 

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms

 

Question  What proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is associated with transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from persons with no symptoms?

 

Findings  In this decision analytical model assessing multiple scenarios for the infectious period and the proportion of transmission from individuals who never have COVID-19 symptoms, transmission from asymptomatic individuals was estimated to account for more than half of all transmission.

...

In this base case, 59% of all transmission came from asymptomatic transmission, comprising 35% from presymptomatic individuals and 24% from individuals who never develop symptoms.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774707

 

Were you talking about the link I posted, and the findings from it as being over a year old?, If so you need to read the whole article from January 23rd of this year, as it does lay it our quite clearly that recent findings are this:

 

"Even though knowledge about asymptomatic infection has greatly evolved, tactics for combating the pandemic have not. It is now obvious that testing only those with symptoms, as was common early in the pandemic, is a mistake because it ignores the invisible legions of infected people who have no symptoms. But it is not enough to merely increase the number of tests. The problem is that current testing practices are ill-suited to detecting and containing asymptomatic infection".

Edited April 13, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

17 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Were you talking about the link I posted, and the findings from it as being over a year old?, If so you need to read the whole article as it does lay it our quite clearly that recent findings are this:

 

Nope, I was referring to the other poster who posted content from mid 2020.  ????

 

I think the scientific/medical information we're presenting and seeing is pretty much in sync.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Nope, I was referring to the other poster who posted content from mid 2000.  ????

 

Thank you John, and keep up with the great information you have been posting.  I am glad to see someone has taken over ensuring we get the information since one of the other members who used to do it is apparently no longer on the forum.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

 

Asymptomatic infection blunder let Covid-19 spin out of control - STAT (statnews.com)

 

Very interesting and very legitimate report from Jan. 2021... that also has the value of including quotes from Fauci in Jan 2020 and a WHO official in June 2020 dismissing asymptomatic transmission.

 

But as the article then notes, Fauci subsequently disavowed that original comment, and the subsequent evolving research has shown the following (very similar to the JAMA research report I cited above):

 

"Today, the best evidence suggests that about half of Covid-19 cases are caused by infected people who do not have symptoms when they pass on the virus. These symptom-free spreaders are roughly divided between those who later develop symptoms, known as pre-symptomatic individuals, and those who never develop symptoms."

 

What the experts once thought to be true in the early going turns out not to be true upon further study. But that doesn't stop some folks here (not you! ????) from dredging up old quotes to try to support a now discredited view.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[rabas]

Just to add:

 

The CDC's recent March 19, 2021 COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios use the following numbers for planning

• Percent of infections that are asymptomatic:  15% to 70%, best current estimate.  30%.
• Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals:( relative to symptomatic )  25% to 100%, best current estimate.  75%.
• Percentage of transmission prior to symptom onset:   30% to 70%, best current estimate.  50%.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Asymptomatic infection blunder let Covid-19 spin out of control - STAT (statnews.com)

 

That was a very interesting read... But it also contained a tidbit that I hadn't heard or been aware of before....

 

"Asymptomatic coronavirus infection is not necessarily benign. Several studies have reported abnormal lung scans in those infected without symptoms, as well as myocarditis, a type of heart inflammation. The long-term health implications of asymptomatic infection aren’t known."

 

I had been aware of the occurring heart and lung problems resulting from COVID infections. But I wasn't aware that could occur in asymptomatic case!!!

 

You may think you came thru it fine, only to find out later, you're not actually so fine!

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[rabas]

25 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Thank you John, and keep up with the great information you have been posting.  I am glad to see someone has taken over ensuring we get the information since one of the other members who used to do it is apparently no longer on the forum.

I full agree and thank John too.  Especially with the 3rd outbreak unfolding.  He is a major reason that I scan these pages every day. Excellent community service.

[Bkk Brian]

I had read a few snippets on this before now it seems J&J vaccine is producing similar rare reactions as AZ with blood clots in women

 

US agencies recommend ‘pause’ in use of Johnson & Johnson vaccine over blood clot fears

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/us-agencies-recommend-pause-in-use-of-johnson-johnson-vaccine-over-blood-clot-fears/

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

43 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I had read a few snippets on this before now it seems J&J vaccine is producing similar rare reactions as AZ with blood clots in women

 

US agencies recommend ‘pause’ in use of Johnson & Johnson vaccine over blood clot fears

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/us-agencies-recommend-pause-in-use-of-johnson-johnson-vaccine-over-blood-clot-fears/

 

Yeesh!!!  I hadn't seen that... being laser focused on TH stuff here... So now the U.S. is gonna replay the AZ-UK-EU drama with J&J vaccine over clotting...  Dunno where the J&J inquiry is gonna end up, but the AZ deal in the EU and UK mostly ended up with the AZ vaccine continuing to be used and recommended....

 

I believe the AZ blood clotting odds in the UK were found to be 1 in 250,000 for developing clots, and 1 in 1 million for dying from those clots.  What a lot of those reports often fail to note or calculate is what people's comparative risk might be from going unvaccinated and then ending up dying from COVID.

 

After a while, the drama surrounding all these kinds of issues, and the uncertainties and unknowns, are enough to drive you a bit crazy!!!

 

Clotting risk aside, the J&J vaccine had very good clinical trial results, and was very effective at preventing COVID death and serious illness... Not to mention having the advantage of being a 1 shot dose that doesn't require deep freeze handling. It has had quite high hopes for extensive use -- although, also had suffered from manufacturing problems in the U.S. lately that curtailed supplies.

 

Of note, it's also the only one of the three vaccines thus far approved by the TH government that isn't actually being used here as yet...  The other two being AZ and Sinovac, which are the two in active use here right now, with Sinovac being the vast majority of doses thus far.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[LosLobo]

3 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

BMA for Bangkok updates COVID testing results for their outreach efforts to Thong Lor area entertainment venue workers April 3-10.

 

Latest cumulative is 12.5% positivity rate for all those tests with results back thus far -- 839 positives out of 6,690 results. 5851 negatives, and 1370 test results still pending.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/earthpongsakornk/posts/501811007895466

 

 

 

A quick chart of the above data!

It seems as though testing for this section of the cluster might be under control.

Though taking more than 5 days to cycle testing would be unacceptable in the real world.

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by LosLobo

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

26 minutes ago, LosLobo said:

 

A quick chart of the above data!

It seems as though testing for this section of the cluster might be under control.

Though taking more than 5 days to cycle testing would be unacceptable in the real world.

 

 

Gotta be careful with the visual aspect of charts when there are widely different values involved.

 

When I check the positivity rate just for test results for April 8, I get 12.9%.

 

When I check the positivity rate just for test results for April 9, I get 6.4%...

 

The numbers are coming down, but still above where anyone would want them to be even for the most recent two days of meaningful results among the available data.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[LosLobo]

6 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Gotta be careful with the visual aspect of charts when there are widely different values involved.

 

When I check the positivity rate just for test results for April 8, I get 12.9%.

 

When I check the positivity rate just for test results for April 9, I get 6.4%...

 

The numbers are coming down, but still above where anyone would want them to be even for the most recent two days of meaningful results among the available data.

 

 

A 7 day moving average would smooth out the noise but that would require a lot more data than was in the graphic. ????