Here is some official data from last week:

 

"CCSA spokesman Taweesin Visanuyothin said of the 28,022 people tested during active case-finding operations in nightlife districts and communities, only 1,273 (4%) were tested positive."

 

This is not nationwide data, but it is indicative that the infection rate in Bangkok was not going to spike in the near future, and it didn't - even including the Klong Toey cluster and other hotspots.

 

Positivity rate predicts the rate of new infections. If the new infection rate does not correlate with your testing numbers, you are doing something wrong.

 

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Let me ask 2 questions:

 

Do you agree that a reported positivity rate above 5% indicates future spiking of infection numbers?

 

and

 

We have official random sampling numbers from Bangkok (MOPH)  and Chonburi (provincial government), giving us a baseline of some 3,000 to 4,000 random samples per day (the specific number is in that range but varies from day to day).  Do you disagree?

 

In reply to both points:

 

Even 1% can mean a future increase in figures without measures in place and continued testing, over 5% then again exactly the same, it can mean a future increase in figures, it does not need to signify a spike is coming as there are multiple other variables that need to be taken into account of which we do not have the data.

 

On your second point, you demonstrate well that you do not have the full and accurate data points with your variable baseline figure, so again this is pure speculation, Chonburi appears to be heading on a downward trend but that does not translate to the whole of Thailand and certainly not Bangkok.

 

Instead of speculating, leave it to the experts, not me, or you. Base your reference on official data points rather than conjecture.

 

 

20 minutes ago, anchadian said:

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1389741449382486018

 

Thai News Reports

 

@ThaiNewsReports

·

3m

 

 

Chonburi Public Health Office has just just announced that they have 110
new cases today. The total so far is now 2,965. Most new cases in Bang Lamung/Pattaya (59), Chonburi City (21), and Sriracha (9) #COVID19 #โควิด19 #Thailand

 

Chonburi still moving on with cases where yesterday they had 91 so it has increased, but some want to believe the wave has peaked.  I do not believe it has peaked, I believe there are more cases that have not been tested and are staying home, ergo why they  are now pushing to test on a wider scale but still in reduced numbers.  However, that is my opinion and there is at least one member who is stuck on positivity rates indicating its not increasing.  I also saw an article in the paper we can not quote that stated the Governor of the BMA stated the cluster in Klong Toey will be over in 2 weeks.  If they still have no idea of how many positive infections there are and people are passing it from family member to family member it will not be done in 2 weeks, even if they are planning and currently are inoculating folks. Again my opinion, and based on anecdotal reports from friends that live in the Area it is a total CF even with the positive PR being given on the news.

Edited May 5, 20215 yr by ThailandRyan

11 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Here is some official data from last week:

 

"CCSA spokesman Taweesin Visanuyothin said of the 28,022 people tested during active case-finding operations in nightlife districts and communities, only 1,273 (4%) were tested positive."

 

This is not nationwide data, but it is indicative that the infection rate in Bangkok was not going to spike in the near future, and it didn't - even including the Klong Toey cluster and other hotspots.

 

Positivity rate predicts the rate of new infections. If the new infection rate does not correlate with your testing numbers, you are doing something wrong.

 

Did you see todays figures................

Edited May 5, 20215 yr by Bkk Brian

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1389745367311273987

 

Thai News Reports

 

@ThaiNewsReports

·

8m

 

BREAKING: Thai health ministry reporting 15 deaths and 2,112 new cases on Wednesday. Full update at 11:30am. 1 May: 1,891 - 21 dead 2 May: 1,940 - 21 dead 3 May: 2,041- 31 dead 4 May: 1,763 - 27 dead 5 May: 2,112 - 15 dead <— TODAY #COVID19 #โควิด19 #โควิดวันนี้ #Thailand

 

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Did you see todays figures................you need to revise your "we've already had the peak statement

He is stuck in the past with his data points.  This is an upward trend again, and no we have not peaked.

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

He is stuck in the past with his data points.  This is an upward trend again, and no we have not peaked.

Unfortunately some people prefer to make their own conclusions based on incomplete data and then profess them to be an accurate measure. This is far from over.

7 minutes ago, anchadian said:

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1389745367311273987

 

Thai News Reports

 

@ThaiNewsReports

·

8m

 

BREAKING: Thai health ministry reporting 15 deaths and 2,112 new cases on Wednesday. Full update at 11:30am. 1 May: 1,891 - 21 dead 2 May: 1,940 - 21 dead 3 May: 2,041- 31 dead 4 May: 1,763 - 27 dead 5 May: 2,112 - 15 dead <— TODAY #COVID19 #โควิด19 #โควิดวันนี้ #Thailand

 

Now that the two week grounding sleeping on a cardboard box with 200 strangers for having COVID is being changed you can expect people to actually get tested for it now and the numbers may go up.  

5 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

Now that the two week grounding sleeping on a cardboard box with 200 strangers for having COVID is being changed you can expect people to actually get tested for it now and the numbers may go up.  

Not sure it is getting changed.  The BMA and CCSA were looking at outfitting the Impact arena with over 500 beds but that will take up to 2 weeks to outfit it for a field hospital, but will continue to use the large Wat they have made into a field hospital and an Area down by the port in a warehouse.

4 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Wait until Klong Toey kicks in, a few days from now it could be through the roof.

Gotta assume they'll try to isolate these numbers in their presentation, like they did with the migrant workers from wave 2

1 minute ago, phills2k1 said:

Gotta assume they'll try to isolate these numbers in their presentation, like they did with the migrant workers from wave 2

Possibly however in the serious outbreak at  Samut Sakhon, when they locked the migrants in the factories, those who were infected and those who were not to see if they reach herd immunity (official statement). I'm not sure the true numbers were ever revealed. 

24 minutes ago, phills2k1 said:

Gotta assume they'll try to isolate these numbers in their presentation, like they did with the migrant workers from wave 2

 Pro-active screening in 39 communities, with top priority given to 20 communities where infections have been detected. At least 20,000 are to be tested, with a minimum of 1,000 per day, to be conducted by a mobile labs.

The daily news will reflect only the low testing rate.

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