Thailand’s dilemma: how to shore up economy as infections surge

[webfact]

Inside the Jatujak market, the most popular weekend market in Bangkok on May 18, 2021.

 

Thailand’s economic outlook is bleak, with the daily COVID-19 caseload hitting four figures following mid-April’s Songkran holiday.

 

The economy shrank 2.6 percent year on year in the first quarter, according to the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC)’s quarterly report released on May 17. Thailand has now suffered economic contraction for five consecutive quarters since the virus outbreak in early 2020.

 

Publication of the NESDC report coincided with lockdown easing in high-risk zones including Bangkok, as the government sought to kickstart economic activity. Customers are now allowed to dine at restaurants until 9pm, one diner per table.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailands-dilemma-how-to-shore-up-economy-as-infections-surge/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-05-20

 

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[RotBenz8888]

There is something they could do, baht they're kida reluctant. 

[robblok]

31 minutes ago, RotBenz8888 said:

There is something they could do, baht they're kida reluctant. 

That is currency manipulation and they can't. Plus the baht is down at least 10% from a while back. So something has happened.

[JonnyF]

The only thing that will get things moving is the vaccine. Around 40 million people double jabbed should do the job.
 

Unfortunately hubris and complacency set in when they were lucky with the first 2 waves. Not to mention greed in trying to use the situation to line influential pockets. 
 

Now they have realized their mistake but they have missed the boat in terms of vaccine procurement and the country will pay the price, being very slow to recover.

[Poet]

While there is obviously more to the Thai economy than tourism, it certainly wouldn't hurt to start building it back up again.

Start accepting verifiably fully-innoculated visitors from countries that, thanks to mass vaccination, have achieved the "Zero Covid" status of less that 100 infections per day per million of population. Planes carrying only vaccinated passengers and crews represent no biological hazard to the people of Thailand. Today, that would be Israel, Malta, Iceland, Gibraltar, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Albania. By June it will be the UK, by July the US. By early 2022 it will be most of the EU.

As an emergency measure to kickstart thing, announce a return to the simple, welcoming, low-friction visa system and attitude they had before the coup happened and the junta did their damndest to kill the golden goose. In fact, just wave everyone from visa waiver countries in with a 12-month stamp. Sure, if they cause trouble or take a job that a Thai could do, kick them out, but the focus right now should be on getting people to come and not handing regional competitors, such as Vietnam, a golden opportunty to leapfrog Thailand.

 

[Isaan sailor]

4 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

There is something they could do, baht they're kida reluctant. 

You got that right.  Interesting day on the currency markets proves this.  Today crypto currencies tanked, and gold rose.  The other phenomenon we see—risk off.  That benefits safe havens, like the USD.  Sure enough USD rose today against the Pound, Euro, Aussie, and Japanese Yen.  But here in Thailand—the Baht gained on the USD.  Amazing Thailand,  or rather, amazing Bank of Thailand.

[worgeordie]

They need to inoculate Millions more people and quickly

as they are not going to have an economy ,the one they

hope for anyway

 

regards worgeordie

[SoilSpoil]

Thailand has only 2 options in my humble opinion: or a Baht QE program, or allowing foreigners to buy land and own companies. Both will pump trillions in the economy. Thailand's problem is not the Covid, it's the enormous income inequality, which sucks middle and lower classes in debt ridden poverty. The Covid crisis is just an accelerator of the unavoidable collapse. Thailand's GDP and tourism were already in dire straits pre-Covid. Now throw an unstable government and the very unhealthy household-debt-to-asset ratio in the mix, and you can clearly see the writing on the wall. QE or sell your lands.

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, Poet said:

While there is obviously more to the Thai economy than tourism, it certainly wouldn't hurt to start building it back up again.

The best thing they can do is learn from their mistakes, and make their economy far less reliant on tourism.

 

Which is probably why they are hell bent on doing the exact opposite, already counting how many million tourists will arrive, starting July 1st!

 

The problem is: how to provide jobs to millions of untrained and unskilled workers who have been through what is probably the worst school system in the world?

[hotchilli]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

The best thing they can do is learn from their mistakes, and make their economy far less reliant on tourism.

 

Which is probably why they are hell bent on doing the exact opposite, already counting how many million tourists will arrive, starting July 1st!

 

The problem is: how to provide jobs to millions of untrained and unskilled workers who have been through what is probably the worst school system in the world?

They haven't learnt a damned thing, all they can talk about is getting tourism re-started in certain locations... same old business model.

They don't have the capacity to re-think Thailands economy and have tourism as a nice bonus. Generals in pin-stripe don't have the brains to be in charge of a country... they only know how to rape & pillage its fortune.

 

[Poet]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

The problem is: how to provide jobs to millions of untrained and unskilled workers who have been through what is probably the worst school system in the world?

You pretty much can't, and the system will never be reformed as long this benefits the elites.

So, as intriguing as making "their economy far less reliant on tourism" may sound, it probably won't be a realistic option for many more years.

Bear in mind, too, that the amount of money brought into the country by foreigners, often ending up in the poorest communities, simply cannot be measured by the usual tourism metrics, and the Thai establishment certainly don't want to think about it.

The missing inflow of tourists mean that there are millions of cars, houses, and other goodies that will not be bought for young Thais later in this decade, because they did not have the opportunity to establish key relationships with farangs over the past 16 months.

Think about how many farangs in relationships or "sponsor" situations with Thais might not have been in Thailand when the pandemic hit. Many would have decided to just end those ties at some point, given the length of the separation and no clear idea of when they might be able to return.
 

Cumulatively, that is a lot of money now not flowing into Thailand, money that many families depended upon and spent locally.

 

Edited May 20, 2021 by Poet

[Aomelia]

Lock BKK and surrounding provinces Down , Now 

[Stargeezr]

My Thai wife and her sisters all say that they will not be going to Thailand until the majority of

Thais have had their vaccines for COVID.  Why would they go back to catch COVID because so few Thai  people

including our Thai family have got their shots.  Come on Thailand, get your shots, and Then maybe the tourists will

start to return, when the rules relax as well. Forget the 2 week quarantine  as it is for sure a big stopper in tourism.

   It is hard to get out of Canada to get to Thailand with all the tests needed, before travel.

Geezer

[Fex Bluse]

On 5/20/2021 at 10:30 AM, webfact said:

Thailand’s economic outlook is bleak, with the daily COVID-19 caseload hitting four figures following mid-April’s Songkran holiday.

 

What's the issue? I thought tourism was only 9% of GDP (sigh)

[Fex Bluse]

On 5/20/2021 at 5:24 PM, hotchilli said:

They haven't learnt a damned thing, all they can talk about is getting tourism re-started in certain locations... same old business model.

They don't have the capacity to re-think Thailands economy and have tourism as a nice bonus. Generals in pin-stripe don't have the brains to be in charge of a country... they only know how to rape & pillage its fortune.

 

 

Rice farmers in suits

[mtls2005]

Thailand's tourism model is high-volume, low-margin. For that to work they need tens of millions of tourists just to cover the costs.

 

Continuing to pine for the teat of the foreign tourist, until COVID is behind us, is a waste of energy.

 

A few million tourists will actually cost the country more given the costs of restarting the whole apparatus.

 

And, of course, this model is reliant on a boatload of third parties who will move independently.

 

 

Edited May 21, 2021 by mtls2005

[Isaan sailor]

Thailand has a huge oversupply of hotel rooms.  For now, that’s a pretty good deal for us wanderlust expats.

[Brunolem]

32 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Thailand has a huge oversupply of hotel rooms.  For now, that’s a pretty good deal for us wanderlust expats.

Only when they can operate under normal conditions, which is far from being the case these days...

[cclub75]

 

On 5/20/2021 at 10:21 AM, JonnyF said:

The only thing that will get things moving is the vaccine. Around 40 million people double jabbed should do the job.

 

Unfortunately that could be not enough. Look at the UK...

 

37 518 000 people have received 1 dose.

21 660 000 people have received 2 doses.

 

Source : https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

 

This is massive for the adult population (if you remove the people under 18 years old).

 

But... they still have around 1 500 cases and 7 deads per day (average).

 

But... they do not care, anymore. Because for them such levels are nothing compared to before (peak was 68 000 cases and 1 800 deads per day, in january).

 

However Thailand (whole Asia as a matter of fact) is much, much more sensible.

 

So what will happen when 70 % of the population will be vaccinated... and we will have news cases popping here and there ?

 

Asia is very much into Zero Covid ideology.

 

In Western countries we understand that vaccines do not prevent contamination... Their only target is to reduce the severity of the disease. Even politicians are saying this.

 

But here, with less education, vaccines are seen as a "magic wand", as an absolute weapon, as the one-way ticket to go back to the "world before"....

 

Watch out for the psychological (and political and financial) hard landing when thai people will be confronted to reality...

Edited May 22, 2021 by cclub75

[Sticky Rice Balls]

Ask China they have been doing it for decades..

[Sticky Rice Balls]

3 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

 

Rice farmers in suits

[Sticky Rice Balls]

59 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Thailand has a huge oversupply of hotel rooms.  For now, that’s a pretty good deal for us wanderlust expats.

with rates jacked up by 30% due to no one being there...

[ftpjtm]

On 5/20/2021 at 12:00 AM, Poet said:

While there is obviously more to the Thai economy than tourism, it certainly wouldn't hurt to start building it back up again.

Start accepting verifiably fully-innoculated visitors from countries that, thanks to mass vaccination, have achieved the "Zero Covid" status of less that 100 infections per day per million of population. Planes carrying only vaccinated passengers and crews represent no biological hazard to the people of Thailand. Today, that would be Israel, Malta, Iceland, Gibraltar, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Albania. By June it will be the UK, by July the US. By early 2022 it will be most of the EU.

As an emergency measure to kickstart thing, announce a return to the simple, welcoming, low-friction visa system and attitude they had before the coup happened and the junta did their damndest to kill the golden goose. In fact, just wave everyone from visa waiver countries in with a 12-month stamp. Sure, if they cause trouble or take a job that a Thai could do, kick them out, but the focus right now should be on getting people to come and not handing regional competitors, such as Vietnam, a golden opportunty to leapfrog Thailand.

 

Who is going to come to a country in lockdown with no end in sight?

 

I  love Thailand. I plan to retire there. I spent the bulk of the pandemic in Thailand. But they screwed up the vaccine process so severely I'm in the US now getting my Pfizer, and won't return to Thailand until;

 

- I get my 3rd Pfizer booster shot in September or October, and;

 

- The situation in Thailand improves to the point that it's clear there are no more COVID lockdowns on the horizon. 

 

At this point I can't even begin to predict when that will happen. With the emergence of all the COVID variants in Thailand via domestic transmission, mainly Sinovac being administered, and the overwhelming reluctance of Thais to be injected with what they see as a useless vaccine, I'm planning on a long stay in the US. 

[cclub75]

“God laughs at men who complain of the consequences while cherishing the causes.”

Jacques-Benigne Bossuet, french writer, from 17th century.

 

The thai economy will continue to tank because we do not take care of the causes.

 

Yes, by locking up international borders, by closing bars, restaurants, schools... we destroy the economy.

 

So why are we complaining now like we are surprised ? Like if it was impossible to foresee the consequences ?

 

You cherish "Zero Covid" ideology ? You want to totally eradicate this terrible coronavirus that kills a few old and sick people and that is not dangerous for 98 % of the thai population ?

 

No problem. Let's do it.

 

But then, after, don't come here to complain, to cry because the economy is crumbling, because millions of people are loosing everything (their job, their savings, their properties etc.)

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by cclub75

[Nsp64]

On 5/20/2021 at 11:00 AM, Poet said:

While there is obviously more to the Thai economy than tourism, it certainly wouldn't hurt to start building it back up again.

Start accepting verifiably fully-innoculated visitors from countries that, thanks to mass vaccination, have achieved the "Zero Covid" status of less that 100 infections per day per million of population. Planes carrying only vaccinated passengers and crews represent no biological hazard to the people of Thailand. Today, that would be Israel, Malta, Iceland, Gibraltar, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Albania. By June it will be the UK, by July the US. By early 2022 it will be most of the EU.

As an emergency measure to kickstart thing, announce a return to the simple, welcoming, low-friction visa system and attitude they had before the coup happened and the junta did their damndest to kill the golden goose. In fact, just wave everyone from visa waiver countries in with a 12-month stamp. Sure, if they cause trouble or take a job that a Thai could do, kick them out, but the focus right now should be on getting people to come and not handing regional competitors, such as Vietnam, a golden opportunty to leapfrog Thailand.

 

Nobody wants to come to a delapodated country where no one has been vaccinated.

[The Cipher]

Reopen everything and accept that risk is inherent to living a meaningful life.

 

Of course ramp up vaccine rollout as fast as possible. But in the meantime if some people die, they die. That's the game.

[sammieuk1]

If only there was a Czar to blame it all on! and " hey presto " there is an extra special bone headed one ???? 

[Daithi85]

On 5/20/2021 at 11:00 AM, Poet said:

While there is obviously more to the Thai economy than tourism, it certainly wouldn't hurt to start building it back up again.

Start accepting verifiably fully-innoculated visitors from countries that, thanks to mass vaccination, have achieved the "Zero Covid" status of less that 100 infections per day per million of population. Planes carrying only vaccinated passengers and crews represent no biological hazard to the people of Thailand. Today, that would be Israel, Malta, Iceland, Gibraltar, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Albania. By June it will be the UK, by July the US. By early 2022 it will be most of the EU.

As an emergency measure to kickstart thing, announce a return to the simple, welcoming, low-friction visa system and attitude they had before the coup happened and the junta did their damndest to kill the golden goose. In fact, just wave everyone from visa waiver countries in with a 12-month stamp. Sure, if they cause trouble or take a job that a Thai could do, kick them out, but the focus right now should be on getting people to come and not handing regional competitors, such as Vietnam, a golden opportunty to leapfrog Thailand.

 

Don't think Vietnam will be leapfroging Thailand any time soon, there visa situation  is worse than Thailands,big panic over there at the moment with the visa situation. 

[tlandtday]

These fools are not only destroying the international markets with their incompetence but the domestic as well but hey it did stop the Bangkok protests didn't it?

[talahtnut]

They could admit that there is no pandemic, and just carry on as usual.